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Brexit

Ambiguous NFP and a busy week aheadLast week ended for the dollar is not the best way. Statistics on the US labor market came out slightly worse than expected: +145K new jobs outside agriculture instead of the expected +160K. On the one hand, it’s okay, but on the other hand, after +200K of employment from ADP, it seems to be not enough. On the whole, our predictions for NFPs based on statistical laws can be justified: two excesses by the fact of the forecast must be followed by lag from expectations. Perhaps the most annoying thing for us happened in the USD/CAD pair. Recall, we recommended news trading. And the news came out almost ideal for reducing the pair: relatively weak data on the USA against the background of strong data on Canada (employment +35K with a forecast of +25K). But the decline in USD/CAD was very limited and earnings of 15-20 points cannot be considered as such. Total, the week is clearly an asset to the dollar, but so far we see the growth of the dollar exclusively as an opportunity for its sales to be more expensive. And the numbers on the NFP have more likely confirmed our position than disproved. So this week we will continue to look for opportunities for dollar sales. The main candidates for this are the pair with the Japanese yen and the British pound. The first is interesting to us as an asset-refuge and just the entry points themselves are magnificent. As for the British pound, Brexit is confidently moving in the right direction, but the pound has lingered. Accordingly, we expect that already this week he will rush to catch up. In our opinion, another interesting asset for trading this week is gold. The inability of sellers to sell 1550 is the best confirmation of the appropriateness of buying gold. In any case, the deal is worthwhile: with relatively small stops (placed below 1440), goals can be set very ambitiously. Recall, we believe that gold should test 1800 this year. The new week promises to be quite saturated with macroeconomic statistics, especially in the USA and Great Britain. Which, again, will almost certainly be accompanied by the appearance of points for entering positions.
Short
by Trade24Fx
4
ORBEX: Look at SPX Volumes for Further Clues!Despite the US-China phase one trade deal supporting equities the upside could be minimized if priced in already since as indices have been moving up since the December truce! Geopolitics suggest more strength, however, technicals indicate otherwise! Will corporate earnings trigger a shift from a macro perspective? Well, either that or weaker US inflation data! It seems that equities hang on earnings and inflation, whereas the US index only on inflation data. Timestamps SPX 8H 01:30 DXY 8H 04:25 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
TVC:DXY
by Orbex
A bullish bias on the Cable (i.e. GBP/USD) Here I present my analysis on the Cable (GBP/USD), on which I have a strong bullish bias considering both of its technical and fundamentals. On the technical side, the Cable is seen to be re-testing the upper band of the bullish flag it just broke, which happens to be a strong demand zone of the pair. Adding a confluence to this analysis, the stochastic RSI oscillator is also seen to be indicating an oversold signal as it went below the 30 line. We can wait for the bullish crossover of this indicator for confirmation. As with the fundamental part of the analysis, we have a crucial event for the GBP which is the UK Parliament voting on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which would require UK to leave the European Union on January 31st. With Brexit uncertainty due to Britain's political instability finally seeming to disappear, this news is expected to be optimistic for the Conservatives. If we happen to see the Brexit deal being made, we expect to see a huge bullish move on the GBP/USD chart. At an approximate of 300 pips move upwards, we can maintain a risk to reward of 1:2, if we manage to execute this setup on time. It would be wise to properly manage your risk if you wish to execute this setup as this is a highly volatile pair. I would personally recommend to risk no more than 1-2% of your trading account balance on this trade and adjust your lot size accordingly. Further opinions on this analysis are highly welcome. Happy Trading!
Long
by Sudan_Aryal
Trade Ideas Educator: GBPAUD BatA bullish bat set up for a trend trading opportunity has 2 warning signs: 1) A potential head and shoulders setup on the daily chart. 2) A consolidation at Point C may signal a small sell zone to some trader and gain momentum for the bearish run. I will wait for candle confirmation before engaging in this trade. You can choose if to join us on our TIP community where you receive all my trade, Stop, Entry, Target or to join us on Facebook Live on the coming Wednesday to see the development of the trade. Link is at the bottom.
Long
by RaynLim
Trade Ideas Educator: GBPJPY GartleyA bearish Gartley setup on the 1-hourly timeframe is very different from the rest of the pairs I've done this week on my analysis. Well you see, for all the analysis that you have seen most likely they are all trade plan and strategies, that's what most traders are looking for, where to enter and where to exit. You just need the 1st step, which is Analyse, Analyse if the market is bullish or bearish and if there is anything you have to take note of. Well GBPJPY is pretty bullish and shorting this pair, it might not be profitable, so why to share this trade idea, you may ask. If point D completed with just a touch on the long shadow, it will show a different story, a short-term weakness. I will watch this trade setup closely and decide if its a valid trade. You can wait for Wednesday Facebook live session or join our TIP community, link at my signature.
Short
by RaynLim
GBPUSD-Weekly Market Analysis-Jan20,Wk2A bullish Gartley pattern set up for an opportunity of a trend trading setup, a trend continuation setup for the daily timeframe. If a break of the Gartley pattern is to happen there is a bullish deep crab pattern on the 4-hourly chart and a bullish bat pattern on the daily timeframe. There isn't a need to rush into this. What're your thoughts on the Brexit decision and how is this going to affect the market movement? Comment your views below.
Long
by RaynLim
GBPCAD Trend pullback. Awaiting continuation LONGGBPCAD has retraced the upward move from last month back down to support at 1.695-1.7. Price has accepted above the 1.7 level and furthermore volatility over the past 4 days has dropped significantly suggesting a large move is coming. The move will more likely be to the upside in line with the major trend over the past 3 months and bullish fundamentals for GBP. Entry at a clean break and close above 1.71 on the 4H. SL back behind lows 1.693. My short term target is at 1.772, longer term target for this pair at 1.9.
Long
by KanoFX
1
ORBEX:CHF Firm Despite Haven Flows,Pound "Stimulated" by CarneyBOE's Gov Carney hinted to stimulus yesterday, indicating that the pound could come under severe pressure if incoming data show no improvement. Coincidently, the same day there were suggestions that the EU-UK talks could be dragged past the tight deadline BoJo has set. The passenger plane crash in Tehran didn’t reflect into the markets as uncertainty about the crash remains high without access to the plane's "black box". As a result, #safehaven outflows continued to weaken the #yen. However, #franc seems undeterred by the sentiment, making a strong case for more firmness. Timestamps USDCHF 4H 01:25 GBPUSD 2H 03:35 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.01.09A good time to update the Cable chart as we approach the first macro driven event risk of the year with NFP. As mentioned a few times the range we are trading is crystal clear with 1.33xx highs and 1.31xx lows. While the market is holding the key support at the lows, I maintain a view that a correction back towards the highs is both corrective and necessary to allow positioning for Brexit impact leg while the risk to the thesis comes from a break below the lows in the range and reassessment is only required should we break below. I therefore look to sell the strength back towards 1.33 - 1.35 which will be enough to cap the highs for 2020. Should we see any strength extend in the short-term it will be a superb selling opportunity for those interested in adding weight to the in-house macro view. For those wanting to track the large swing we have been trading since the UK elections I would recommend the following diagrams: GBPUSD GBPAUD EURGBP UK markets pricing a Conservative majority as a "positive resolution" to Brexit is complacent and allows us an opportunity to capture those out of position and mis-pricing UK market access beyond 2020. To date we have traded a tremendous amount of conjecture around the Brexit chapter, yet many are quickly to forget we are yet to trade the "fact" leg. ...Best of luck to all those looking to trade NFP, a clean and simple spike back to the top of the short-term range in play for Cable. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and comments !!!
Long
by ridethepig
3
ORBEX: EU/UK Free-Trade Agreement Under ThreatWith US-Iran de-escalation traders shift their focus on Brexit talks and safe-haven outflows! The new EC President threw doubt into a free-trade agreement in her visit in the UK to initiate talks. And this could have a reversal effect on the uncertainty we saw removed over the past few weeks. Watch me analyze GBPNZD and CADJPY for further technical insights and as I apply Elliott waves. Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
GBPJPY Set to Complete Wave 4 Bearish DeclineAfter a major rally in wave 3 labeled (i)-(v), GBPJPY seems to be making a three-wave pullback in wave 4 which is expected according to Elliot Wave principle. The wave 4 correction which is currently unfolding as a simple zigzag is almost completed. However, it still has the potential to sell lower to around 50% Fib of wave 3 which also lined up with a support zone. Once the correction is completed a rally is expected in wave 5 to complete the entire impulse rally that started in August 2019. The lower time frame analysis below shows how to take advantage of the short-term decline. What's your thought on GBPJPY?
Short
by Veejahbee
2
GBPUSD Is Setting Up to Complete a Bearish Zigzag Pattern.Hi Traders! Happy New Year to you all! GBPUSD is correcting the major rally that started in September 2019. The impulsive move is labelled (i)-(v) in wave A. The correction which seems to be unfolding as a Zigzag in wave B is yet to be completed. I'm looking for price to move higher in the shorter cycle to complete wave (b) of C around 78.6% Fib, then look for a short entry to take advantage of wave (c) of B. Do you like this analysis? Best, Veejahbee.
Short
by Veejahbee
GBPJPY: #POUNDITSince mid-October the GBPound has been gaining momentum against the JapenseYuan. Reaching a recent high of 147.900, the price point immediately reverted to retest the previous channel's top trend line near 141.500 (shown in orange). After a showing of strong support, the price point returned to its longstanding uptrend which started August 11th 2019 (shown in green). Currently sitting on the 50EMA (25 day average) and the bottom of the longstanding trend line, I expect this price point to continue rising and eventually retest the 147.900 mark. Trend direction's obviously changing because we're sitting above the 200EMA now. I wonder if its finally headed back toward the highs of August 2015 (194.510).
Long
by UnknownUnicorn5320750
4