Brexit
GBPNZD #ReasonsWhyTradersAreHatedI still genuinly beleive there will be a UK market crash this year or early 2021 due to brexit, the chart set ups and other economical data give me the confidence of this happening.
We will just have to wait and see how this plays out after the UK officially exit teh European Union at 11pm tonight but I am ready to capitalise on this misfortune #ReasonsWhyTradersAreHated
As always... PATIENCE - CONFIRMATION - ENTRY - PROFIT
The epidemic continues, Carney's last word, Brexit dayAs we warned in our two previous reviews, investors relaxed clearly prematurely. Actually, the dynamics of underlying assets on Wednesday confirmed this. And the front pages of publications clearly indicate what investors should think and worry about now - the coronavirus epidemic.
Yesterday we wrote that its scale has already exceeded SARS, and the epidemic is still in full swing. The number of deaths has already approached two hundred, and the number of cases is clearly aimed at overcoming the 10,000 mark. Meanwhile, analysts are accelerating the theme of global recession and coronavirus as a trigger. We already wrote earlier that there are prerequisites for this and current events are really great for the role of a catalyst.
In general, our recommendations on buying safe-haven assets are still working and their decline on Tuesday was only a great opportunity for cheaper purchases.
But back to the events of yesterday. The Bank of England left the bet unchanged. Since the price of the pound at the start of the day partially took into account a possible decrease in the rate, its increase upon the announcement of the decision by the Central Bank was an attempt to exclude this component from the price equation. Actually, our recommendation to buy the pound worked at 100%.
For the current head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, this was the last meeting. Already in March, he will be replaced by Andrew Bailey, who previously served as Executive Director of the British Financial Supervisory Authority.
Well, do not forget that today is Brexit day. On January 31, 2020, Great Britain leaves the European Union. Note that Brexit was and remains the main driver of pound movements. Moreover, it is precisely the “soft” scenario that is being implemented. Recall that when the markets were just thinking about the possibility of a “soft” Brexit, the pound was worth 1.41-1.43. From this position, its current prices look like great opportunities for medium-term purchases with very ambitious goals.
The US GDP for the fourth quarter was 2.1%. Overall expected as it was the final reading.
GBPUSD SELL IDEATechnicals-
Market structure on 4HR chart showing price making LH's and LL'S.
Trendline also confirming the down trend with fib confluence of 61.8% Rejection at high volume area.
Fundamentals-
We have brexit news in just under 3 hours at the time of posting this chart. Therefore, it could potentially provide the liquidity required to move this pair aggressively which is why I am happy to take the trade at this time.
Follow me for more updates and trade ideas!
GbpUsd short opportunity!Here I have broken down the GBPUSD currency chart. I have identified a strong sell opportunity as displayed here with my technical chart work.
The GBPUSD currency pair has been in a 4hr range for the past few weeks and is now showing signs of a breakout emerging. In my opinion this breakout will be to the downside seeking to 1.295 region or below.
GBP/USD forecast /post BOE/BREXITGU is technically cooking next move after a bit longer period of consolidation after 2 upward legs which created this new bullish trend from weekly support. Dollar paired some losses since October while GBP used that opportunity with combination from positive tones for Brexit. This week we will also get BOE rate decision which will definitely increase volatility on the markets due to almost even chances of cut-hold decision chances. Market is more sensitive and cautious since 'Coronavirus' fears which sent market into more risk-off causing dollar and safe havens to appreciate vs risk currencies. Also post brexit trade talks will be interesting to watch and it is still difficult to fundamentally forecast longer term Sterling direction.
However, in such situation technicals and banks positioning is worth to watch. We are still bullish on pound and support looks good so far, not breaking down to create lower lows! For good r/r ratio I will take my chances going long on bullish overview. One of the rare times I disagree with sentiment with small stake, but good plan! If drop happens, I will look to re-enter lower.
GBPNZD 200pips move!!Clear trend channel since Dec'19! In lower timeframe we can see a possible H&S formation in the last higher high! Price in support/resistance zone! Waiting for candlle closure below 1.9930 would be great to short!! Keep waiting
What do you think??? Lave a comment!! Let me know your opinion about this one!!
Equity Markets More Downside? Swing to Form.Have been speaking about the equities showing interesting exhaustion patterns. Well, we had the break and quite the run lower. Today, the day before the Fed, we have had a move up. Many already saying look how strong the market is, shaking off fears of the coronavirus and other world events. Not so fast, market structure was expecting this pullback, and until we close above the previous break out zone, we can still make another lower high swing.
To preface, I expect markets can still go higher because there is nowhere to go for yield. I have spoken about this in many posts. Equities is the only place to go for yield with central banks depressing interest rates. Central Banks can control the short term rates, but not the long term rates. QE was a way to manage long term rates by effectively purchasing long term bonds, thereby depressing long term interest rates. The world has been forced to go into real estate or stocks for yield. Pension funds especially, who have always been very much into fixed income, but now cannot make their 8% a year when some pension funds are from 60%-100% in bonds. I argue these pension funds have been forced into stocks, and if stocks ever fall a lot, there will be big issues.
Of course, the Fed will keep this market up with cheap money. Again, they are forcing money into stocks as it is the only place to go for yield. We have Fed chair Powell speaking tomorrow, and the Fed is expected to NOT cut interest rates. However, Powell will still have to present a dovish stance to appease markets. Hopefully it is not another boring press conference like December, where it seemed like the Fed was stalling.
Again, we do expect stocks to pullback here and there. This is normal for market structure. Presented are a multitude of equity set ups with nice charts.
All of them have had an uptrend, and a stalling/exhausting pattern. These are either ranges or even potential head and shoulders forming. With this in mind, we should expect a lower high which is not formed and we are expecting potential lower highs to form in these set ups. Again, the safe way to play this trade is to await the lower low break to CONFIRM the lower high. If we break above the breakout zones then this is nullified, which can potentially happen as I have presented why money has to be in equities.
The S&P had a nice double top pattern and a break below the flip zone. It has extended quite a lot and naturally we were expecting a pullback. Will it go all the way back to the break out zone at 3310? Or will we see some action at these fib levels.
The Nasdaq breakout did not look as good as the S&P's because we would have liked to see a pattern. Was hoping for a head and shoulders with a bounce up before breaking below 9111 but it did not happen. Now we await for a lower high.
The Russell 2000 setting up a head and shoulders on the daily potentially.
The Nikkei 225 as well. Double top as well.
The German Dax has a set up on the daily, but still requires a long way down before testing the big support zone on the daily chart. There is a play here on the 4 hour chart that looks appealing. Again, awaiting the swing.
The UK FTSE retesting the breakout zone, although I would avoid due to the Brexit deadline coming up.
The French CAC had a nice break of a flip zone.
The Spanish IBEX/ESP also similar.
Euro Stoxx 50 is interesting because although the chart looks similar to the CAC and IBEX, the exhaustion occurred at a major resistance zone, at previous all time highs.
Perhaps the cleanest is the AUS200. Again, retesting a break out zone and potentially can form a lower high. You can see the break out and move lower is very extended.
Overall, this is normal for market structure. We shall see if we get the first swing, and potentially another swing.
Another INDICATOR is looking GREAT for BTC --->RSIwhen you are looking NOT JUST the CHART ----> DAY by DAY <---- and you takes a look in the RSI
you can see it, BULLRUN JUST BEGINS.
Also i note that every little DIP it seems the last GO in UNDER 10000$ price
may until the BREXIT on 31.01.2020 ????????????????
Another INDICATOR is looking GREAT for BTC --->RSIGuys, when you are looking NOT JUST the CHART ----> DAY by DAY <---- and you takes a look in the RSI
you can see it, BULLRUN JUST BEGINS.
Also i note that every little DIP it seems the last GO in UNDER 10000$ price
may until the BREXIT on 31.01.2020 ????????????????
Bitcoin is rising with 2x times "3-SOLDIERS" CandelsAfter i write on Saturday, that Short sellers will burn his fingers,
now it´s complete another "fenonmeno" NEVER SEEN BEVORE
2 times ---> 3 white SOLDIERS <---- CANDELSticks
Bitcoin is rising with 2x times "3-SOLDIERS" Candels, it will be a very hot spring 2020
GbpUsd Sell trade idea updates(3hrs)Congrats on our previous sell. However still on the buy trend, Wait for reversals as long as 1.28500(Bottom trendline, Supports) isnt broken then swing buy back up to 1.31500. Also note upon the final hearing on Brexit on 31st we would get to see more volatility that can change the market. so apply proper risk managements. Please comment and share your ideas on this particular pair too. thanks!