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Brexit

GBPUSD Short MaybeLooking at the average Elliott wave cycle we are in a downward trend for GU overall. The pullback was a bit extreme but actually only to the 618. GBP strength in this situation makes almost no sense. Brexit & Covid 2.0 with Boris n friends running the show. All that's happening right now is the institutional investors are gathering liquidity. COT Data shows an 84% bias in trading the pound over USD and that is split with a 59% net short position. OVerall waiting for confirmation on smaller Time frames. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Short
by Mayfair_Ventures
ridethepig | GBP Trade of the Week♟ Another clear map for us to play with Brexit and the U.S. elections acting as the main price drivers. A double top is a purely tactical weapon. It is terrible compelling; even for the most unaware retailers who will jump in - so we are tracking for flows driven to the lows after a double top. We shall close this Brexit chapter with some strong short GBP trades. (1). In the following EURGBP things are coming down to an interesting break unlocking the 1.00x levels: GBP sellers have of course got the control, they are winning the continuation as long as 1.306x is holding (note the importance of this resistance, it should be safe and sound). What we must take into account is the tactical manoeuvre of the slimy politicians and any headlines around a brexit deal. To the downside, 1.291x as an initial target with 1.267x the bigger level below. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
6
EURJPY Short to go LongThis pair is looking for a 4th wave Elliott drop and confirmation below it's last swing low. Once confirmed (or the high is taken out, making last swing low a shallower 4) then it will pop up to 5. Short term bias is down - Asset Managers are favouring the long overall with a 68.5% Bullish sentiment. Whilst the Leveraged funds are 58.5% Long overall. Retail sentiment on IG index is showing 52% Long currently. Two key entries, below the last low (ideal) or taking the most recent highs and up to 129 potentially. Long swing trade. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Long
by Mayfair_Ventures
2
Short Position: Fears of No-Deal Brexit EaseIn H1 timeframe, we hope a short position in the $1.2967 USD In H4 timerame we detect a weakness of the RSI and the trend is put in bearish sentiment pressure. So, we hope with confirmation on H1 or scalping timeframe of 30 minutes to entry in short position with confirmation. Fundamental Keys: 1. The Pound rose agains the dollar as investors continue to bet the UK and European Union will agree to a trade even as talks on fisheries continue to stall progress and Prime Minister Boris Johnson appears unwilling to rule out walking away from negotiations. 2. Mr. Johnson reported that he's want to decide on Friday on the next week whether to walk away or continue talks with the European Union, according to Uk media reports (UK news). 3. This report come just hours after hopes were boosted that a no-deal Brexit would be willing to continue talks to secure a trade with the Euroepan Union So, in summary, we would need to the next week if there's any good specualte news that Boris demonstrate us that He's may to willing to resolve this issue about the trade negotiations with the European Union.
Short
by harisonhbn9718
GBPCHF Channel TradingGBPCHF has ben channeling for 3 weeks now and still holding. Long term direction is still down and I am looking to place a sell near the top channel. Again, I am only looking at sells as that is the main direction. If you do plan to buy at the bottom of the channel make sure you set short stop losses. Indicators: 1. RSI on daily and 4 hr in sell zone. 2. Channel holding strong. 3. Overall GBP pairs are weakening. Entry 1 @ current price of 1.1889 Entry 2 @ 1.1975 TP @ 1.1810 Good luck and let me know if there are any questions. Charles V CVFX Management Trading made Simple
Short
by cvfxwealth
2
FX Update: GBP up as Brexit talks extend, RBA takes AUD downSummary: There will be no Brexit talk deadline today, a relief for sterling bulls, but a situation that merely extends the uncertainty. Elsewhere, the RBA November 3 meeting is likely shaping up for a new easing push from Lowe and company as their overnight musings on longer term QE took the AUD down a few notches. Elsewhere, we watch the relative strength race between the USD and JPY as 105.00 has come into view in USDJPY. Trading focus: JPY still in the cross-hairs As I have noted recently, the yen is receiving a double whammy of support from the strength in safe haven bond yields (the most important driver) and weak risk sentiment of the last couple of sessions. I speculated in this morning’s Saxo Market Call podcast whether one of the factors keeping the EURJPY from lower levels is the EU sovereign bond market, where bond traders have had a field day since the spring in bidding up peripheral debt (piggy-backing ECB flows) as EU sovereign spreads tighten. This element is entirely missing in Japan’s moribund JGB market, but the JPY remains undervalued in real-interest rate terms. We focus on the 105.00 area in USDJPY for a wider realization of this level – every prior attempt below this level since 2018 has been gathered up within a few trading days. Pause button pressed for sterling Just ahead of yesterday’s update, the headline crossed my screen that Boris Johnson would not walk away from talks today, which the market took as a hopeful sign that the current status of the talks is sufficiently amicable to indicate that a deal is reachable. According to sources in the major news media, both sides suggest that late October or the first week of November are the more likely timeframe for an agreement. On balance, the fact that talks are ongoing are promising for sterling, but we still likely will need that critical breakthrough for sterling to post any larger directional move. Until then, a break below 0.9000 in EURGBP would represent a fuller reversal of the prior rally and could lead to the exploration of the bottom of the range just below 0.8900, which also happens to coincide with the 200-day moving average. AUD hit on RBA consideration of longer term bond purchases The Australian 10-year yield dropped a chunky 7 basis points overnight (from 0.84% to 0.77%) on RBA governor Lowe out indicating that the RBA is considering extending the maturities of its bond purchases and mulling whether lowering 5-10 year yields would help the Australia labour market. The Governor complained that Australian 10-year yields are still too high. This has the market placing bets that the RBA is set for a bigger move at the November 3rd meeting, which could include a rate cut and now more likely to see a proper QE programme that includes purchases to lower Australian yields all along the curve. Chart: AUDUSD The AUD is lower across the board on the RBA’s consideration of extending bond purchased out the yield curve and the local line of consolidation has fallen overnight in AUDUSD as the pair really only has the huge 0.7000 area to consider from here to the downside tactically. To get the pair significantly below that level, we would likely need to see further weakness in China’s currency, commodity prices like iron ore heading lower, and generally weak risk sentiment. The first area lower beyond 0.700 is the 200-day moving average just below 0.6800. The G-10 rundown USD – looking generally firm, but not the centre of attention at present. As long as US stimulus fears weigh on risk sentiment, likely to continue to see resilience. EUR – considerable speculation around the ECB’s next measures, but the ECB is already doing plenty if we have a look at EU peripheral spreads, and the focus is likely to increasingly shift to the fiscal – watching for signals from the EU Summit today and tomorrow on that front. JPY – very interested in the relative horse race of the USD and JPY as 105.00 and below approaches to see which achieves top status as a safe haven currency if yields continue lower and risk sentiment is rocky. GBP – potential for further gains here, but still need the key breakthrough and wonder if the ceiling is a bit low for sterling even in the best of outcomes – more thoughts later now that talks likely to drag on for two more weeks or more. CHF – a grinding bit here in CHF as EURCHF slowly moves lower – maybe more sensitive to global bond safe-haven seeking that risk sentiment swings per se? AUD – Australia hit by the RBA and could trade on weak side until the November 3 RBA meeting, especially if global outlook remains further clouded by Covid-19 concerns and China’s yuan suffers a bout of consolidation after its recent run. CAD – USDCAD has room to consolidated to 1.3250 without raising eyebrows, but seems low beta to the overall USD situation. CAD traders need keep an eye on oil prices as these traded near resistance yesterday. NZD – the kiwi enjoying strength against the sudden downshift in the Aussie, but the RBNZ will be quick to take care of preventing pronounced NZD strength eventually. For relative strength in that pair, watching the 200-day moving average around 1.0620. Big level for NZDUSD is 0.6500. SEK – the krona may be overachieve in short term, but still have a “fade the rallies” stance in EURSEK as long as we remain south of 10.500 for a move into sub-10.00 territory in 2021. NOK – the EURNOK level of 10.75-80 is the one to crack tactically for NOK bulls – could be a short term walk in the desert here for those bulls if the Covid-19 partial shutdowns continue to weigh on the oil outlook over the winter. John Hardy Head of FX Strategy Disclaimer The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. 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by Saxo
GBPUSD Channel OutlookGBPUSD has dropped almost 200 pips in the past 3 days. Brexit and Euro Oct 15th deadline date is very crucial as well and it looks like UK will be leaving without a deal (again). Once we have a break below this channel, start selling. Expecting price to go down to 1.2700 levels. RSI in sell zone This pair has now broken the 4hr up trend line. Look to sell at the backside area of the up trend line down to 1.1625 area. Indicators: 1. Daily RSI in sell zone. 2. Backside of resistance area of 1.3040 tested and bounced south. 3. Daily bear strong candlestick. Entry 1 @ 1.3000 (safe entry) Entry 2 @ 1.2911 sell stop TP @ 1.2700 (take profits of 50-80 pip ranges as you trade down to lock in profits) And, as always, remember risk management. We are still in the USA election season and anything can happen. Good luck and let me know if there are any questions. Charles V CVFX Management Trading made Simple
Short
by cvfxwealth
GBPJPY Sell Signal 300 PipsGBPJPY has broken south of the upwards channel, giving us an even strong signal to the downside. 1. Daily RSI in sell zone 2. Up trend line broken south. 3. Strong bear candle close. 4. Large time frame still bearish. Look to enter near backside of up trend line. (Past support becomes new resistance) Entry 1 @ 136.75 Entry 2 @ 137.20 TP 1 @ 133.60 TP 2 @ 135.50 Good luck and let me know if there are any questions. Charles V CVFX Management Trading made Simple
Short
by cvfxwealth