Bullish Oil Options Traded at Record Pace Before Iran AttackOil investors piled into the options market days before Iran launched its attack on Israel and traded a record amount of contracts that profit from higher prices. Just over 1 million calls on the global Brent crude benchmark traded last week, surpassing a previous record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The volumes were focused on contracts at $95 and above $100, with bullish calls trading at hefty premiums to bearish puts in recent weeks.
Traders have been flocking to the oil options market in order to hedge themselves against the risk of prices moving higher if the conflict between Israel and Iran widens further. Options are often used to protect against major geopolitical risks as they allow a cheaper way of profiting from a spike in prices.
Many of the bets won’t have profited yet given that crude prices and market volatility retreated when the market opened early on Monday, with the benchmark now changing hands below $90. However, as tensions in the region remain high such hedges are likely to remain in place over the coming weeks.
Calls at $100 and $110 are the most held options contracts over the next 12 months for Brent, according to ICE Futures Europe data compiled by Bloomberg. On Thursday alone, about 29 million barrels of new call option contracts were opened on the nearest trading month.
Brent
WTI/Oil 4h Technical Analysis during IranVSIsrael warDespite Iran's attack on Israel, the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil remained stable. However, in the event of a reciprocal response from Israel to Iran within the next 24 hours, the price of oil is expected to make a significant upward jump from its long-term trend line.
Currently, the price of WTI crude oil is within its supportive range on the 4-hour timeframe, and last week, it broke above a long-term daily trend line, which is now being tested with a pullback and a bearish candle which can be a fake bearish sign by geopolitics issues!
The RSI is in a suitable range for buyers and playing around 44, so opening long positions on oil is the best decision at the moment.
Entry: CMP at 84.7 - 85 even
TP: 92.627
TP: 98.34
TP:106.52
TP: ATH Around 168
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Potential Scenarios For Next Week 🛢️
Crude Oil is consolidating after a strong bullish wave.
The price formed a horizontal range on a daily.
Next week, wait for a breakout of one of the boundaries of the range for a confirmation.
Bearish violation - a daily candle close below a support of the range, will give you a strong
bearish signal. A bearish continuation will be expected to 83.0 level then.
Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the resistance of the range - a daily candle close above,
will push the prices higher to 89.0 level.
Wait for a breakout, it will give you a strong confirmation.
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Strifor || USDCAD-12/04/2024Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The US dollar continues to strengthen before the weekend, but there is a high probability of a downward correction beginning, and this concerns all major currency pairs.
The Canadian dollar has one of the most interesting buying setups against the US dollar . The price is trading slightly above trend resistance, and it is unlikely that we will see continued growth. Although this probability remains, in this case we have scenario №2 , where growth may still be towards the level of 1.37500 . But it should also be noted in favor of scenario №1 that most of the sellers have already been liquidated, and the instrument is more ready to fall towards the designated target at the level of 1.36500 .
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CRUDE OIL Heist Plan to Rob the oil barrelsHola Traders,
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Bullish Continuation After Pullback 🛢️
Crude Oil set a new local higher high higher close on a daily,
violating a key horizontal resistance.
It opens a potential for a further growth to 89.0 resistance.
I would suggest looking for entries after a pullback.
The safest zone to watch is a demand zone based on a broken structure
and a trend line of a rising channel.
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Strifor || USDCAD-04/04/2024Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The Canadian dollar also perfectly fulfilled its medium-term sell scenario, which we gave earlier. Here, as with AUDUSD , in the short term, the sell-priority remains, and a fall is expected towards the level of 1.34500 , where the nearest support is located. It should be noted that the instrument retains the prospect of falling to the level of 1.34000.
We identify two main scenarios for selling, mostly intraday. The likelihood that the seller will be aggressive is high.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Important Key Levels 🛢️
Here is my latest structure analysis and important key levels to watch on WTI Crude Oil.
Resistance 1: 85.20 - 85.85 area
Resistance 2: 89.10 - 89.90 area
Resistance 3: 93.75 - 95.00 area
Support 1: 82.50 - 83.10 area
Support 2: 80.00 - 80.60 area
Support 3: 76.80 - 77.80 area
Support 4: 75.50 - 76.20 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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UKOIL daily XABCD bulls 20% upside BUY/HOLD🔸Hello traders, let's review the daily price chart for UKOIL.
Speculative XABCD in progress, with 20% upside potential based on the
current price action / fundamentals.
🔸XABCD structure is defined by point X at 95.60, point A at 73.20, point B
at 92.50, point C at 77.00, point D/PRZ at 105.00, currently most points validated,
point D/PRZ pending in May/June 2024 (PRZ/D = 105.00)
🔸Recommended strategy for UKOIL traders: accumulate near market
price using low leverage. TP Bulls is 105.00 +20% gains. swing trade setup. good luck!
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Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
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Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Brent Crude is showing major upside to come to $96.00Ascending Triangle has formed on Brent Crude.
We saw the price continue to knock up the resistance until it broke above.
Price>20 and Price>200
So the target is likely to hit $96.00
When the US Dollar depreciates, it often leads to a rally in Brent Crude prices for several interconnected reasons.
1. Commodity Pricing
Global Benchmark:
Brent Crude is a major global oil benchmark. Oil prices, including Brent Crude, are typically denominated in US dollars on international markets.
So when the US Dollar weakens, oil becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies. This increased affordability can lead to higher demand, pushing prices up.
2. Investment Flows
A weaker dollar drives investors towards commodities like oil as alternative investments, contributing to price rallies.
3. Economic Implications
Dollar depreciation often signals global economic growth, boosting energy consumption and pushing up oil prices.
4. Inflation Expectations
Oil is purchased as a hedge against inflation when the dollar weakens, raising demand and prices for Brent Crude.
5. Energy Sector Investments
A depreciating dollar lowers operational costs in the energy sector outside the US, potentially tightening supply and elevating oil prices.
Strifor || BRENT-14/03/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: After a very long accumulation in oil, most likely the buyer is ready for the long-awaited growth. According to the results of yesterday's trading, the price was fixed at the highs, which indicates the strength of the buyer against the backdrop of growing market sales.
In this regard, we maintain a strong buy priority towards levels 86 and 87 . Both scenarios are displayed on the chart, where scenario №1 is more likely.
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Strifor || USDJPY-14/03/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: We actively continue to follow our previous bullish scenarios for this currency pair. In general, in the medium term, we expect a strengthening of the US currency , which the Japanese yen will feel the most painfully. Moreover, earlier we talked about the long term, and here it is unlikely that we will have to wait for the price trading below the level of 150 . We expect that the instrument will trade above this psychological level.
According to the results of yesterday's trading, the Japanese currency was the first to demonstrate weakness and ready to capitulate against the US dollar in the medium term. A limit seller for JPY has appeared, or rather, a recent limit buyer is fixing his positions. A number of major currencies still have growth potential against the US dollar in the short term, but in the medium term they are likely to follow the same path as the yen. By the way, we also do not rule out a temporary strengthening of the Japanese yen , especially against the backdrop of the publication of PPI and Retail Sales , but it is unlikely that there will be an update of local lows.
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Strifor || BTCUSD-14/03/2024Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: Our previous purchases on the coin were closed with profit. However, surprisingly, the price continues to trade at updated highs and does not roll back. Against this background, it can be argued that the power of the buyer, at least in the short term, is very great. In this regard, the most likely scenario today is a preliminary increase towards the levels of $75 000 and $76 000 , and after that, a potential downward correction may be expected. This market maneuver is described in our scenario №1 , which can be seen on the chart. Scenario №2 assumes a fall from approximately current prices, but this is a less likely scenario.
The target for the fall is at the level of $68 000.
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Brent Oil Getting Into A SqueezeLooking at the technical picture of EASYMARKETS:BRTUSD on our daily chart, we can see that the commodity is currently trading in a small range, roughly between the 81.83 and 83.98 levels. At the same, on the bigger picture, the price remains between two trendlines: a short-term upside support line taken from the lowest point of December 2023 and a downside resistance line drawn from the highest point of September 2023. This means that the pair is slowly getting into a squeeze. Although we might see some strong movement in-between the two trendlines, we would prefer to wait for a breakout first, before examining the next short-term directional move.
A push through the upper side of the aforementioned range and a break of the previously discussed downside line would also place EASYMARKETS:BRTUSD above the 83.98 barrier, possibly attracting more buying interest. A forthcoming higher high would be confirmed, potentially clearing the way towards the 87.87 zone, marked by the highest point of November 2023. If the buying doesn't stop there, the next aim could be at 89.58, which is the inside swing low of 19th of October 2023.
Alternatively, a price-drop below the lower side of the range and a break below the short-term upside line may set the stage for a move to lower areas. EASYMARKETS:BRTUSD could then fall to the 79.44 territory, a break of which might open the door for a move to the 76.64 level. That level marks the lowest point of February.
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BRENT - Interesting buy zone!Hello everyone!
we're turning bullish on BRENT!
- Here's my view on BRENT :
- We have liquidity.
- We have an interesting zone.
- We have the optimal Fibonacci.
- We have accumulation before/on the zone.
- We are with the trend.ù
stay cautious.
That's why I see GOLD rebounding in the zone and dropping!
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