Brent
Oil Soars to 2023 Highs: Sets New Support Levels? WTI crude futures surged by 3.5% on Wednesday, briefly reaching above $94, marking their highest settlement price of 2023. This impressive rally followed the release of EIA data indicating a larger-than-expected decrease in US crude inventories, showing a 2.17 million barrel drop in the past week.
In parallel, Brent crude futures saw a substantial increase of 2.8%, reaching $96.55 and even breaching the $97 threshold during the trading session.
Market sentiment is increasingly concerned about tightening supplies as we approach the northern hemisphere winter. Earlier in the month, major OPEC+ players, Saudi Arabia and Russia, extended supply cuts of 1.3 million barrels through the end of the year.
The question that looms is whether oil can fall below the recent lows of $88.00 per barrel without a decision to raise production? And if we don’t see the impetus for oil to keep going higher, how well do we think the recent higher highs ($92.65) and lower highs ($91.30) will fare against some potential corrective downside pressure?
USOIL ConsolidationUSOIL has formed a cup and handle on the weekly and daily charts, (feel free to quickly check) so we have since seen momentum to the upside, price has no entered a consolidation and a break out can occur, both ways still possible, however early signs of POTENTIAL breakout to the upside, watch next couple of sessions :)
Brent - H4\D1Brent crude oil
The channel is closed and consolidated, which allows us to expect a continuation of the upward movement towards the target of 96.14 (discussed in the previous analysis).
What can you expect now?
You can consider an entry from a breakdown of the level of 93.27.
In the case of a local movement, we can also expect a correction to the levels 92.17 – 91.83 and the opening of a position. When opening a position, it is best to exit the level of 90.23 if this script is not implemented.
Targets 93.84 – 95.04 – 96.14
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Detailed Technical Outlook 🛢
I received a lot of questions about WTI Crude Oil.
Analyzing a weekly time frame, we can spot that the market is currently
approaching a significant supply zone.
Even though we see a strong bullish rally since the beginning of summer,
I will anticipate a further growth only after a bullish violation of that entire area: 92.5 - 97.8.
Alternatively, analyzing a daily time frame, we can identify a recent retracement from the underlined red area and a strong daily support that was nicely respected.
At the moment, I also see a completed cup & handle pattern there.
A bearish breakout of its neckline - daily candle close below 87.5 will be your bearish confirmation.
I am monitoring oil closely and if I see a good trading setup, I will definitely share that with you.
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Strifor || XAUUSD-09/21/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The Fed results also did not leave the metal unattended and, as we expected, the price collapsed. A further fall is visible, and the nearest target is level 1912. After which sellers can give a downward impulse to the level of 1900.
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Strifor || EURUSD-09/19/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: In general, the situation with the euro has not changed locally; the instrument is still under the control of sellers, but there is no clear entry point yet. As long as the price is below the level of 1.07500, sales will be a priority in any case. The market is awaiting the Fed's decision on Wednesday, and against this background, no particularly good setups for entering the currency pair have been spotted.
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Strifor || UKOIL-09/19/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The last oil trade aimed at a short-term fall (counter-trend movement) successfully closed with a profit. At the moment, a sell setup has also formed, and here most likely the rollback will be deeper. The correction potential lies at the level of 92.50.
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Strifor || XAUUSD-09/18/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: For gold, the local picture has changed, and short-term purchases are now being actively considered. In the near future, an approach to the level of 1920 is expected, from where the buyer can become more active and the instrument can easily rise to the level of 1938.915.
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Strifor || USDCAD-09/18/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: Another approach to the level of 1.35030 will lead to its breaking down and further updating of the lows. This level is also a mirror level. According to our scenario, the instrument will approach the level of 1.35500 before going down. You can consider sales from current ones with a small volume.
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Brent above @$100 might not be a myth !Brent have two recent bottoms 1.June 2023 ($72) and 2. August 2023 ($82.5) and has rallied more than 33% since July. The rally still looks to be continuing without till 496, $98.5 and $100 very soon. Given the strong momentum buildup and supply cuts from OPEC+ has given the oil a due rally which the cartel was expecting since June 2023.
Technically speaking levels of $126 are also on the charts as the commodity is breaking out of a Declining wedge pattern which was in formation from Jul 2022 to Jul 2023 a strong supply side pressure will be giving the commodity due advantage to rise above $100 to $125.65 as we can see.
Strifor || XAUUSD-09/15/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The situation with gold remains the same and, as we said yesterday, the instrument will most likely now be in balance. No growth is expected above 1920. For intraday trading, you can consider the range 1903-1920.
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Strifor || UKOIL-09/15/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: Oil continues its steady strengthening, and the medium-term outlook for instruments is positive. However, now, most likely, the price will go for a correction, and it is expected that the instrument will reach level 92, where the balance for pushing is located. In addition, there is a small probability that the price will reach the level of 90.72, from where the price recently recorded the maximum of the current year on impulse.
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BRENT OIL ( UK OIL ) LONG term Trade AnalysisHello Traders
In This Chart UK OIL HOURLY Forex Forecast By Forex Planet
today UKOIL analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (UKOIL market update)
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This Video is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts.
UPDATE: Brent Crude is on the way to $100!Since the last update, Brent has broken above the major Falling Wedge...
And it's been on a quiet but consistent trajectory up.
With the USD strengthening and with oil being an inelastic good where price has little effect on demand, means we can expect the price to continue to the first target.
$100!
We are in it for the medium term.
Brent \ Oil - AnalysisOil Brent
MN - The price has broken through the trend line at 87.51, which may indicate the beginning of an upward movement.
W1 - We are observing a retest after the triangular formation and a breakout of the level of 87.51; for the price to move further upward, it is necessary to wait until the price consolidates at this level, which will open up the possibility of moving to the level of 108 - 125
If the price does not fix at the level of 87.51, we can expect a continuation of the downward movement with a target to the 71 price level
What can you expect now?
When moving up, the nearest target is 99.34
When moving down, the nearest target is 81.64
Long
Targets 99.34 - 108.94 - 125.09
Medium term - targets 92.34 - 94.87 - 99.34
Short
Targets 81.64 - 76.52 - 71.27
Medium term - targets 85.40 - 83.79 - 79.81
Strifor || USDJPY-09/08/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: Yesterday's attempt to continue growth in the dollar was not successful; it only succeeded in taking a small part of the distance for all previously analyzed instruments. As for the Japanese yen, everything remains in favor of buyers, and we continue to expect short-term growth towards the level of 148.500.
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CL WTI Crude Oil - Getting In Sync With The Market MakersIn late July I made a call that oil's actual target in the imminent term is not $100+, but actually a 3 or a 4-handle.
Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins
I believe that this long term analysis is still correct. However, price action has shown that the target was finally the daily gap at $85 and was achieved last week.
Thus far in some 7 weeks of trading, oil has only gained $9.
I likewise believe that before Natural Gas goes on its next bull run, it's going to violently abuse the longs with a raid under $1.8
NatGas - No Moon Until Doom
But with current price action, we may get a false breakout over $3.1 before that can happen.
A pump in energy and metals in September would be congruent with the thesis that equities are going to have a very red September as a setup into a Q4 that takes out the highs, which I outline here on the Nasdaq ES Futures:
Nasdaq Futures - Are You Prepared For Red September?
But the problem for retail traders is everyone is "practical" and believes that we're going straight up from where we are. It's a new bull market, some guy who works for some big bank and is tasked with engineering liquidity for high net worth clients and funds, told social and establishment media.
Equity bulls need to give their head a shake, though. And so do energy bulls.
With the U.S. being net short hundreds of millions of barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the Fed reiterating that interest rates simply are not going to be cut until there's an international economic crash, the "long" trade only exists insofar as riding the wave that is intended to kill long term funds who are net short.
If the scheme really is to rally like it's a new paradigm into Q4 and create a Bump and Run and then blow the world economy away in 2024 ahead of the next U.S. election, which Joe Biden will win because Donald Trump will die in prison, then there are significant risks.
It's just like Burning Man where they decided to do a ritual sacrifice to the Azov cult in Ukraine and were met with a flood and rainbows and now are trapped in 6 inches of their own urine and feces and alkaline mud.
What I mean by the above is that the best laid plans of mice and men always go awry, and this should be obvious to anyone who understands the situation in China with even a modicum of sobriety.
Unfortunately, the people who understand China with a modicum of sobriety are almost nobody.
Xi Jinping is an idiot who is still holding onto the Chinese Communist Party, the most murderous and worthless regime in all of human history.
While Xi has never participated in the persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners, which was started July 20, 1999 by former Chairman Jiang Zemin, and has even been killing the Jiang Faction as his real target in the Anti-Corruption Campaign, Xi is still the head of the CCP.
When the CCP falls, Xi will fall with it and be impugned as responsible for all of the Party's sins in all of history.
And this means that in the process of the CCP falling, Xi may show a glint of intelligence and wisdom and overthrow the Party himself, Gorbachev style, using the persecution as a weapon to protect the real China from being taken over by the International Rules Based Order that uses Taiwan as a proxy.
What all of this means for energy and equities and really everything else is significant gap downs are ahead in the markets, and are likely to come at prices that are high but not that high.
This is because if significant problems in China emerge and go viral on social media that Party West's propaganda machine are unable to suppress, it will disrupt the plan, and all of those long positions that are set to sell at high prices will turn around and start market dumping.
This means you'll wake up one morning and see that SPY and QQQ are down 12% on market open, and this time, unlike COVID, you aren't seeing daily reversals for mitigation.
Everyone will just be open selling to get into USD cash to run for their lives.
Nobody will be around to maintain the bots, and every market will look like a cryptocurrency memecoin.
So here's the trade on oil.
We may see an immediate reversal at $85, where we are now.
But I think the real target is $95, which will take out that effective daily bar double top printed in November of last year.
That will draw in all the $100 call moonboys, since energy bulls are even more irrational than goldbugs.
And they'll expire worthless as we head into the $40s to end the year while Apple prints $220 and Tesla prints $420 and NVDIA prints $480 (lolAIbulls).
So if you want a trade heading into September, maybe we get a retrace to $82 on oil.
Consider going long with a stop under the $77.60~ low. Sell at $95.
Look for big dumps and go short on the retrace and hold into February for a $30 candle.
Then get long for January '25 printing $150+.
Buy BRENT#BRENT
Oil continues its steady growth on expectations of a reduction in supplies from the Russian Federation in September, as well as positive news from China. However, at the moment the price is starting to look a bit overheated and needs to be deflated.
Against this background, I am waiting for a suspension and correction in the coming days. Nevertheless, the uptrend is strong, so the plan is to open purchases near the levels of 87 and 86 dollars per barrel with a take profit of 88.50.