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USOIL Best Level to Short/Hold 10% swing trade setup🔸Hey guys, today let's review the 2 hour chart for US oil . Any upside is limited by strong overhead resistances, currently trading near range highs so overall risk/reward shifting in bears favor. 🔸Strong resistances will cap upside at 72.00 usd / 72.50 usd. right now locked in tight trading range, however expecting final pump to trigger overhead stop losses before reversal and subsequent sell off event. 🔸Recommended strategy for BEARS: wait for the final pump before short selling from strong overhead resistances at 72.00 and 72.50 SL fixes at 74.00 usd, TP1 bears is 68 usd TP2 bears is 66 usd. swing trade setup, patience required. good luck! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:USOILShort
by ProjectSyndicate
5
Black gold continues its decline!Oil prices are falling for several reasons: • Saudi Arabia has decided to lower oil prices for buyers in the Asian market. • A strong dollar continues to pressure black gold. The drop in oil prices below $70 per barrel is likely being restrained by OPEC+ policies aimed at controlling supply volumes. The organization has decided to postpone the planned January 2025 increase in oil production to April 2025. Traders dealing with Brent crude oil show the most pessimistic sentiment in recent months after OPEC+ countries decided to delay the resumption of oil production halted since 2022. At best, this postponement may only slow the price decline amid seasonal demand reduction in the first quarter. With the holidays approaching, market volatility is also decreasing, as traders exercise caution and avoid making aggressive bets on sharp price movements. Morgan Stanley and HSBC have revised their forecasts for oil oversupply, expecting Brent crude oil prices to reach $70 per barrel by 2025. Bank of America analysts predict that the average price of Brent will be $65 per barrel in the coming years. According to a survey conducted by the law firm Haynes Boone LLP, banks expect WTI crude oil prices to drop to $60 per barrel by 2027. Trade #BRENT and #WTI crude oil with FreshForex and maximize your profits with leverage of 1:2000 and tight spreads. This allows you to manage positions efficiently, minimize costs, and capitalize on price fluctuations for potential gains.
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Brent - Will stability return to the region?!Brent oil is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its downward channel. We will look for oil buying positions on the midline of the ascending channel. In case of a valid failure of this channel, we can witness the continuation of the upward trend. On the other hand, within the supply zone, we can make short-term sales with appropriate risk reward. China has announced plans to implement a “relatively accommodative” monetary policy. This announcement, accompanied by promises of support for more “active” fiscal policies, signals Beijing’s intention to further ease economic conditions. The news drew significant market attention, resulting in a 6% rise in the value of Chinese investment funds on U.S. stock exchanges. Similarly, the Australian dollar gained notable strength in currency markets, and commodity prices saw an uptick. Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg sources, Chinese drone manufacturers have recently imposed restrictions on exporting key components used in drone production to the United States and Europe. This move strongly suggests that Beijing is unwilling to exert pressure on Moscow to end the war. On another front, Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, announced after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over the weekend that he is making serious efforts to end the war.Writing on his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump stated, “A ceasefire must be declared immediately, and negotiations must begin.” He added, “I know the President of Russia well. Now is the time for him to act. China can help. The world is watching!” Simultaneously, the Biden administration, with Trump’s backing, is working to secure a ceasefire agreement and the release of hostages in Gaza before Trump’s inauguration on January 20. The negotiations have resumed swiftly and discreetly, with close coordination between Biden’s and Trump’s teams. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s newly appointed envoy to the Middle East, is playing a pivotal role in these talks. Trump has demanded the release of hostages before his inauguration, warning that otherwise, “hell will break loose in the Middle East.” Biden administration officials have welcomed Trump’s support and are striving to ensure a smooth transition between the two administrations. Adam Boehler has been appointed as the lead official for hostage affairs and is expected to play an active role in Gaza negotiations. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs anticipates that OPEC+ production will remain data-dependent. The bank expects OPEC+ to increase production for four consecutive months starting in July, coinciding with strong summer demand. Additionally, Goldman Sachs predicts that India’s oil demand will grow by 0.3 million barrels per day next year. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), U.S. crude oil production is forecast to reach 13.24 million barrels per day this year and 13.52 million barrels per day next year. The EIA has also revised its 2024 price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil downward, projecting $76.51 per barrel for Brent and $80.49 per barrel for WTI. These figures are lower than last month’s forecasts of $77 and $80.95 per barrel, respectively. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 0.499 million barrels in the week ending December 6, 2024, following a 1.232 million barrel increase the previous week. According to the API Weekly Statistical Bulletin, this marks the fifth increase in eight weeks, defying market expectations of a 1.3 million barrel draw.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Ali_PSND
Oil prices rebound on expectations of Chinese economic stimulus Oil prices rebounded as Chinese authorities demonstrated their strong will to stimulate the economy. Chinese authorities announced that they will continue to respond to the economy with a more active fiscal policy, focusing on expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption. Meanwhile, Aramco announced it would cut its OSP for Asian refineries to 90 cents lower per barrel. This is the lowest since Jan 2021, when global demand was weak due to the pandemic. USOIL briefly broke below the support at 67.60 but rebounded, compensating some of the decline. However, the price stays within the downward channel, maintaining bearish momentum. If USOIL breaks below 67.60 again and the channel’s lower bound, the price may fall further to 64.80. Conversely, if USOIL breaches above EMA78 and the channel’s upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 70.00 threshold.
TVC:USOIL
by inkicho_exness
Oil prices fall despite positive Chinese manufacturing data Oil prices dropped for two consecutive days due to a strengthening dollar despite positive manufacturing data from China. The November Caixin manufacturing PMI in China hit 51.5, surpassing the expected 50.5 and marking the highest level since last June. Attention now turns to the OPEC+ meeting on the 5th, where the group will discuss whether to extend crude oil production increases. Originally, OPEC+ planned to raise production by 180,000 barrels per day starting in January, but concerns about oversupply may delay this decision. After briefly testing the support at 67.60, USOIL rebounded slightly. The price stays within the descending channel, and the gap between both EMAs has widened further, indicating bearish momentum. If USOIL breaks below the channel's lower bound and 67.60, the price may fall further to 64.80. Conversely, if USOIL breaches above both EMAs and the channel’s upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum to 70.00.
TVC:USOIL
by inkicho_exness
Brent - oil waiting for regional stability!Brent oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. At the bottom of the rising channel, we will look for positions to buy oil. In case of a valid failure of this channel, we can witness the continuation of the downward trend. U.S. President Joe Biden announced that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire. He expressed gratitude to French President Emmanuel Macron and emphasized that Israel did not initiate this war, nor were the Lebanese people seeking conflict. Biden stated that Israel has destroyed Hezbollah’s infrastructure in southern Lebanon but stressed that lasting security cannot be achieved solely on the battlefield. The ceasefire is set to take effect at 4 a.m. local time tomorrow, aiming for a permanent end to hostilities. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs predicted that Brent crude oil prices face short-term risks that could push them to around $80 per barrel in the first half of 2025, assuming Iranian oil supply drops by 1 million barrels per day due to stricter sanctions. In contrast, the bank expects medium-term risks to Brent prices to tilt downward due to high spare capacity in the market. Goldman Sachs also estimated that Brent crude prices could fall below $60 per barrel in 2026 if a 10% tariff is imposed or OPEC increases its supply in 2025. Separately, Bloomberg reported that China’s small and private refineries are paying higher prices for Iranian oil due to reduced shipments and fewer offers. These refineries have been purchasing light Iranian crude for December delivery at smaller discounts compared to ICE Brent benchmarks. Limited shipping availability and delays have constrained Iran’s oil exports to China. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, during a meeting with OPEC’s Secretary-General, stated that Russia intends to strengthen its cooperation with OPEC. Novak highlighted that the energy market remains under significant pressure, with price volatility being one of the key challenges. He stressed the importance of closer collaboration between Russia and OPEC to address these issues, asserting that joint efforts can contribute to greater stability in the energy market. Novak also revealed that Russia is preparing to lift its gasoline export ban, with the necessary documentation expected to be finalized soon, although no exact timeline was provided. He pointed to the market’s balance achieved through OPEC+ actions and quota implementation, emphasizing the importance of continued measures to ensure stability. According to the latest JODI data, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports increased by 80,000 barrels per day in September, reaching 5.75 million barrels per day, the highest level in three months. This rise in exports likely resulted from reduced direct crude oil consumption for power generation as the country’s hottest months came to an end. JODI data showed that direct crude burning fell by 296,000 barrels per day in September, reaching approximately 518,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, saw a slight decrease in oil production in September, down by 17,000 barrels per day to 8.98 million barrels per day. Refinery throughput in the country reached 2.756 million barrels per day in September, the highest in four months and 35,000 barrels per day higher than in August. This production level aligns with Saudi Arabia’s summer commitment to maintain output at “around 9 million barrels per day,” consistent with OPEC+ cuts and a voluntary reduction of 1 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ partners have postponed their planned production increases from December 2024 to January 2025. The group now plans to begin increasing supply in January, initially by 180,000 barrels per day for the first month. Saudi Arabia is expected to deliver less crude oil to China, the world’s largest oil importer, in December. Trade sources told Reuters last week that weak demand in China has prompted Saudi Arabia to reduce its shipments to the country.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Ali_PSND
With OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, where to next for crude?Despite the crosscurrents of tariffs, ceasefire agreements and an impending OPEC+ meeting, a certain calm descends over the crude markets and stability is the order of play. The Brent futures price looks quietly content in a $75 to $71 range, and I see these levels as defining the near-term directional risk - where a breakout of either level would offer some degree of confidence of price kicking on further from that point. For now, the crude market has found a fair value, and the aggregation of all flows and positioning seems happy with pricing with the collective waiting for new news to present itself which could lead to a new trend or higher volatility. We’ve seen limited interest in moving either WTI or Brent futures positioning around the post-ceasefire agreement and tariff news, and both factors are now largely in the price. Subsequently, energy traders will be looking more intently towards the weekend OPEC+ meeting and starting to review scenarios and probabilities. Of course, many of the big US-based oil traders will be taking an extended break for Thanksgiving. However, orders may need to be left with others on the desk as any pre-positioning ahead of the OPEC+ meeting will still need to be put in place before Friday's futures markets close, as the prospect of gapping risk in crude on the Monday open is still a risk that needs to be managed. That said, the calmness seen in the price action and lack of trending conditions suggests oil traders see the OPEC+ meeting as a lower volatility affair, with the group likely to swing to an almost unanimous call to hold off from unwinding its 2.2 mbd voluntary cuts until Q125 – with crude at $73 and the Trump/Bessent combo exploring another 3 mbpd of US output, this may be the prudent thing to do for now.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTBRENT
by Pepperstone
Brent - Oil waiting for a new war?!Brent oil is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its upward channel. At the bottom of the rising channel, which is also at the intersection with the demand zone, we will look for oil buying positions. In case of a valid failure of the downward trend line, we can witness the continuation of this upward trend. Senior Russian lawmakers have warned that Washington’s decision to allow Kyiv to launch deep strikes into Russia using American long-range missiles will escalate the conflict in Ukraine and could lead to World War III. Vladimir Dzhabarov, the first deputy chairman of the Russian upper house’s foreign affairs committee, stated that Moscow’s response would be immediate. Speaking to the state-run TASS news agency, he remarked, “This is a significant step toward the start of World War III.” Russia’s Ministry of Defense confirmed that its missile defense systems had intercepted five out of six missiles fired. According to the RIA news agency, debris from one of the missiles, part of the U.S. Army’s ATACMS tactical missile system, landed near a military facility in the Bryansk region. Interfax news agency also reported that the attack on Bryansk was confirmed and attributed to Ukraine’s use of ATACMS missiles. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov described Ukraine’s strikes on Russia’s border regions using ATACMS missiles as a clear message of escalating tensions. He also noted that President Vladimir Putin had previously issued warnings about such actions. Mike Waltz, a congressman from Florida, stated on November 18 that the Biden administration’s decision represents another step up the escalation ladder, with no clear end goal in sight. Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr. warned on X that this move risks sparking “World War III,” echoing Kremlin warnings. Former President Trump has yet to outline a specific plan for ending the war, raising concerns that he might pressure Ukraine into accepting an unfavorable agreement with Russia. In other developments, Francisco Blanch, a commodities strategist at Bank of America, noted that Trump’s pledge to impose hefty tariffs to boost U.S. manufacturing and create jobs could lower commodity prices. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, he remarked, “Trump’s priority is the U.S. economy.” Trump has proposed a 20% tariff on all foreign goods and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports. Experts warn that such a strategy could lead to inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has halted issuing LNG export licenses to countries without free trade agreements with the U.S., citing the need to study the environmental, economic, and national security impacts of such exports. Additionally, a report reveals that BP’s ambitious efforts five years ago to transform from an oil company to a low-carbon energy business have been reversed. BP is now focusing on reclaiming its position as an oil and gas giant, addressing investor concerns over future profitability. Competitors like Shell and Equinor have similarly scaled back their green energy plans due to the energy shock from the Ukraine war and the declining profitability of renewable projects. BP CEO Murray Auchincloss plans to invest billions in new oil and gas projects in the Gulf of Mexico and the Middle East while slowing down its low-carbon operations. The company has halted 18 initial hydrogen projects and announced plans to sell off wind and solar operations. Both BP and its competitors continue to invest in low-carbon energy but are focusing more on quickly profitable sectors like biofuels. Offshore wind and hydrogen projects that have already commenced will proceed, with additional investments considered only if competitive returns are assured.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Ali_PSND
Brent/UK Oil Spot Market Money Heist Plan on Bullish SideHallo! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰 This is our master plan to Heist Brent/UK Oil Spot Market Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Entry 📈 : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Low Point take entry in pullback. Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 2H timeframe Attention for Scalpers : Focus to scalp only on Long side, If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰. Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. 💖Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
VELOCITY:BRENTLong
by Thief_Trader
Oil prices rebound on geopolitical concerns in Eastern Europe After a week of decline, oil prices rose sharply due to increased geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe, including the possibility of long-range missile attacks. Meanwhile, the IEA has noted a decline in global oil demand due to China's slowing economic growth. They added that this trend may result in an oversupply of 1 million barrels per day in the global crude oil market next year. After testing a trend line, USOIL advanced to 69.00. However, the price remains below both EMAs and still maintains bearish momentum. If USOIL breaks below the trend line again, the price could fall further to the support at 64.80. Conversely, if USOIL breaches above EMA21 and the 70.00 threshold, the price could gain upward momentum toward the resistance at 73.30.
TVC:USOIL
by inkicho_exness
USDCAD - CAD look at the oil market!The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. Due to the location of this currency pair at the ceiling of the channel, you can save a part of your purchase position. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions. Monetary Policy in Canada • Interest Rate Cuts: Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December (previous forecast: 25 basis points). It is expected that this downward trend will continue, reaching a terminal rate of 2.25% by June 2025 (previous forecast: 2.50%). Oil Developments in the U.S. • Crude Oil Production: U.S. crude oil production has reached 13.23 million barrels per day this year, slightly higher than the previous figure of 13.22 million. For 2024, production is forecasted at 13.53 million barrels per day (a minor decrease from the previous forecast of 13.54 million barrels). • Crude Oil Prices: The average price of Brent oil in 2024 is projected at $80.95 per barrel (slightly higher than the previous forecast of $80.89). For 2025, the average is expected to decline to $76.06 per barrel (previous forecast: $77.59). The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is estimated at $77 per barrel in 2024 and $71.6 in 2025, slightly below earlier projections. Oil Demand: • U.S. oil demand for 2024 and 2025 is estimated at 20.3 million and 20.5 million barrels per day, unchanged from previous forecasts. OPEC and Production Adjustments: • Lower Global Demand Growth Forecasts: OPEC has reduced its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 to 1.82 and 1.54 million barrels per day, respectively (previous forecasts: 1.93 and 1.64 million). • Increased OPEC Production: OPEC’s average crude production in October rose to 26. 53 million barrels per day, a 466,000-barrel increase from September, primarily due to higher output from Libya. Geopolitical Issues and Iran’s Oil Policies • Iran’s Response to Sanctions: Iran’s oil minister announced that plans have been developed to maintain stable oil exports to counter potential policies from Donald Trump’s administration. • Negotiations Between Iran and the U.S.: Iranian sources reported that Tehran postponed an attack on Israel after Trump’s election to facilitate potential negotiations. Messages conveyed through Baghdad included recommendations to avoid escalating tensions and create an opportunity for talks. Developments in Lebanon and Israel • Ceasefire negotiations in Lebanon are nearing conclusion. Israeli sources have confirmed alignment between the U.S. and Israel on the ceasefire agreement. However, Lebanon’s situation remains complex, with ongoing discussions between Hezbollah, the parliament speaker, the prime minister, and U.S. officials.
Long
by Ali_PSND
China's economic concerns drove oil prices lower Concerns regarding China's oil demand and the dollar's strength have decisively impacted oil prices, driving USOIL down to its lowest since October 29th. China's inflation data reveals significant weakness, intensifying fears of deflation. Additionally, the Trump administration's pressure on China is expected to exacerbate economic challenges for the nation, raising serious concerns about a potential downturn. After breaking the 70.00 threshold, USOIL retreated to 68.00. Both EMAs widen the gap, indicating a continuous bearish momentum. If USOIL breaks the trendline, which has extended since mid-Sep, the price may fall further to this year's low of 64.50. Conversely, if USOIL breaches the resistance at 70.00, where EMA21 coincides, the price could gain upward momentum toward 73.50.
TVC:USOIL
by inkicho_exness
Three days after elections and one after FED cutStarting with #VIX the value decreased a lot after elections showing the decrease in investors fear With less fear we can follow the #SPX #DX1! #BTC1! which strongly rise their value. Commodites in general seems to had loss some points with Dollar strength, in this chart we can watch #GC1! and #BZ1! as benchmark In the case of Brent we can see a double top even with line chart. #US10Y decreased after 25bp cut nevertheless with Trump election US will probably activate more worldwide tariffs and this can lead to an increase in prices, and so the next couple months CPI will be a important measure to look at US economy in the future. So even it's decreasing and bonds are inversly to prices, I should keep an eye on it
TVC:US10Y
by AFCapital21
Brent - Oil waiting for new tensions?!Brent oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its upward channel. At the bottom of the rising channel, which is also at the intersection with the demand zone, we will look for oil buying positions. If the upward trend continues, it is possible to look for oil selling positions within the specified supply zone. Israel plans to use U.S. military aid funds for purchasing new fighter jets. According to the Times of Israel, the United States has deployed additional F-15E fighters to the Middle East, especially to Jordan, due to a possible Iranian attack on Israel. Iranian leaders have warned of a “punitive” attack in response to previous Israeli assaults. Additionally, reports indicate that the United States has sent several B-52 bombers and THAAD missile defense systems to the region. Prolonged tensions in the Middle East could create significant risks for energy prices. Other upward risks include lower-than-expected North American oil production, increased competition for liquefied natural gas shipments, and higher-than-anticipated coal and natural gas consumption in Asia. Conversely, notable downward risks for energy prices also exist, particularly if the OPEC+ supply cuts end sooner than expected. This could lead to an oversupply of oil as well as slower-than-anticipated economic growth, including in China. The World Bank, maintaining a bearish outlook on the energy sector, forecasts a 6% decline in oil prices in 2025 and a 2% decline in 2026. Although geopolitical uncertainties may generate market volatility, analysts clearly foresee downside risks for oil. Citibank has projected that a second term for Donald Trump could exert downward pressure on oil prices through 2025, forecasting Brent crude to average $60 per barrel. Trump’s policies might reduce OPEC+ production and ease geopolitical tensions. These policies may also have mixed effects on global economic growth, potentially slowing global oil demand growth. However, the immediate impact on physical oil markets is expected to be limited.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Ali_PSND
Can oil prices hit 100 usd/bbl in 2025?🔸Based on technicals it's entirely possible. Looking at the daily price chart of Brent Oil we can spot a sequence of lower lows having said that prices are also compressing in a falling wedge price structure which could indicate a swift reversal off the lows near 65 USD/bbl. 🔸Potential price targets for Brent at 100/110 USD bbl if the tensions escalate further in 2025, which is almost guaranteed at this stage. 🔸The possibility of an Israel-Iran conflict has escalated tensions in the Middle East, which is putting upward pressure on oil prices. Although Israel has not yet officially declared war on Iran, there is ongoing speculation about Israeli strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure in response to missile attacks and Iran's support for militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Such actions could significantly disrupt the global oil market. 🔸If Israel were to target major Iranian oil facilities, such as Kharg Island, which handles the majority of Iran's oil exports, global oil prices could spike dramatically. Analysts suggest prices could exceed $100 per barrel and might even reach as high as $200 if the conflict spreads to other regional oil producers or if key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted. This scenario would impact not only fuel prices but also inflation globally, reviving economic fears similar to those seen during the 1970s oil crisis​ 🔸At the moment, oil prices have already seen increases due to the broader conflict, but the market has remained relatively stable thanks to diversified supplies from the U.S. and other non-Middle Eastern producers​ ​ 🔸However, if the situation deteriorates further, particularly with attacks on critical energy infrastructure, more significant price hikes are likely. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team!
TVC:UKOILLong
by ProjectSyndicate
15
RIG (Transocean) – Potential Reversal? Technical Overview • Current Trend: RIG has been in a clear downtrend since September 2023, as confirmed by Dr. Elder’s Triple Screen framework. However, recent technical signals suggest the trend is losing steam. • Weekly Timeframe: The MACD histogram is showing a bullish divergence, indicating that the momentum behind the price decline is weakening. Additionally, a falling wedge pattern has emerged on both the weekly and monthly charts—typically a reversal signal with strong bullish implications. Entry Strategy and Price Action Expectations • Daily Timeframe: We are closely monitoring the $3.90 level. If the price holds above this level, it is likely to form a double bottom on the daily chart. A breakout above the wedge could trigger significant upside momentum. Historically, similar corrections after bullish divergences on the weekly chart have produced gains of up to 90%. Market Context and Macro Factors Oil Market Influence: The price action in RIG correlates heavily with the broader oil market. With oil supply tightening due to OPEC+ cuts and geopolitical tensions (e.g., the Middle East conflict), the oil market could experience an upward cycle. These macro tailwinds may accelerate RIG’s recovery if confirmed by technical breakouts. Conclusi on If the $3.90 support level holds, and the double bottom forms as expected, RIG has the potential to align with the broader bullish trend on the weekly chart. With a falling wedge pattern and bullish divergence supporting the reversal narrative, this could mark the beginning of a new uptrend. Potential Trade Setup: Entry: Above $4.00 for confirmation of the breakout. Target: 90%+ upside potential based on historical patterns. Stop Loss: Below $3.80 to minimize risk. This setup offers a high-probability trade, provided the technical signals align with favorable market conditions. Monitor daily for confirmation and adjust your risk accordingly. NYSE:RIG Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal opinion and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice or an investment recommendation.
NYSE:RIGLong
by NORD25
3
Will the World's Most Vital Artery Become Its Achilles' Heel?In the intricate dance of global energy markets, few factors wield as much influence as the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway, often overlooked in daily discourse, stands as a silent titan, controlling the ebb and flow of 21% of the world's daily oil consumption. As geopolitical tensions simmer in the Middle East, the stability of this crucial chokepoint hangs in delicate balance, challenging us to confront a stark reality: how vulnerable is our global economy to disruptions in this single maritime passage? The potential for conflict to spill over into the Strait of Hormuz presents a fascinating study in risk assessment and market psychology. Despite the looming threat of supply disruptions that could send oil prices soaring to unprecedented heights—some analysts project as high as $350 per barrel—the market remains surprisingly sanguine. This dichotomy between potential catastrophe and current calm invites us to explore the complex interplay of factors that shape oil prices, from geopolitical maneuvering to the subtle influence of alternative supply routes. As we stand at this crossroads of energy security and global trade, we are challenged to think critically about the future of oil markets and international relations. The Strait of Hormuz serves not just as a geographical feature, but as a mirror reflecting our world's intricate dependencies and the delicate balance of power that underpins global stability. In contemplating its significance, we are invited to look beyond the immediate concerns of oil prices and consider broader questions of energy resilience, diplomatic strategy, and the evolving landscape of international trade in an increasingly uncertain world.
FX_IDC:USDBROLong
by signalmastermind