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Options Blueprint Series [Basic]: H&S amid Surging Wheat Supply1. Introduction: Bearish Opportunity in Wheat amid Rising Supply With the U.S. Grain Stocks Wheat (USGSW) report showing a notable rise in wheat stock levels, a bearish scenario is unfolding for wheat futures. This increase in supply, which could drive prices downward, aligns with a technical setup showing potential for a bearish breakout. From a technical perspective, Wheat futures exhibit a Complex Head and Shoulders formation, signaling a possible breakdown as prices approach a critical support level. By combining the supply dynamics and technical formation, this article outlines a Bear Put Spread strategy, ideal for capitalizing on this bearish outlook with limited risk. 2. Fundamental Analysis: Rising Wheat Stock Levels The most recent USGSW report has recorded wheat stock levels breaking upward to 1.98 billion bushels, up from the previous level of 1.779 billion bushels. This shift indicates a higher supply of wheat available in the market, which, in the absence of proportional demand, typically should result in price pressure to the downside. Higher wheat stock levels often dampen demand sentiment, as markets anticipate reduced scarcity and increased availability. Such fundamentals offer a conducive backdrop for a bearish approach, supporting the downside breakout anticipated in the technical setup. 3. Technical Analysis: Complex Head and Shoulders Formation The technical landscape for Wheat futures supports the bearish case, with a Complex Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the chart. This pattern is characterized by multiple peaks (heads) flanked by smaller peaks (shoulders), indicating a potential reversal from recent highs. The critical neckline for this formation sits at 585'6. A break below this level would signal the likelihood of further downside movement. The target for this setup aligns with a UFO support zone at 552'4, which serves as an optimal price point to close the trade if the breakout confirms. 4. Trade Setup: Bear Put Spread on Wheat Futures (Ticker: ZWH2025) To capitalize on the bearish setup, a Bear Put Spread is employed. This strategy allows for limited downside risk while still offering attractive profit potential. Here are the specifics: o Contract Details for ZWH2025 (Wheat Futures): Contract Size: 5,000 bushels Tick Size: 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel (equivalent to $12.50 per tick) Point value of 1 future unit: $50 Point value of 1 option unit: $50 Expiration: December 27, 2024 Margin Requirement: While the exact margin depends on the broker, the requirement typically ranges between $1,500 and $2,000 per futures contract. The margin for a Bear Put Spread in Wheat futures options is limited to the debit paid (15.2 points *$50 = $760). o Options Strategy: Bear Put Spread Buy the 585 put option at 25.84 and Sell the 550 put option at 10.64, both expiring on December 27, 2024. The net debit paid is 25.84 – 10.64 = 15.2 points = $760 This spread provides a capped-risk opportunity for profiting from a downside move in Wheat futures. o Risk Management: While stop loss orders can be used, no stop loss is required given the limited-risk nature of the Bear Put Spread. The maximum potential loss is predefined by the cost of the spread. 5. Options Risk Profile Analysis The Bear Put Spread strategy involves buying a put option at a higher strike price (585) and selling a put option at a lower strike price (550). This configuration: Maximizes potential profit if Wheat futures drop to or below the 550 level by expiration. Caps maximum loss at the initial cost of the spread, regardless of how the underlying Wheat futures move. For this setup, the maximum potential profit is the difference between the strikes (585 - 550) minus the premium paid = 19.80 ($990). The maximum potential loss is the cost of the spread, making it a controlled-risk strategy suited to volatile or downward-trending markets. 6. Trade Execution Plan Entry: Initiate the Bear Put Spread as Wheat futures break below the 585'6 neckline, confirming the downside breakout. Target: Close the trade at 552'4, which aligns with a nearby UFO support zone, marking a logical exit point. 7. Risk Management Considerations Effective risk management is essential in any options strategy, and the Bear Put Spread inherently offers several risk control advantages: Limited Risk: By buying a put and selling a lower-strike put, the Bear Put Spread creates a defined risk position, capping potential losses at the initial premium paid for the spread. No Stop Loss Required: With maximum risk predetermined by the cost of the spread, there's no need for a stop loss, which could otherwise be triggered prematurely in a volatile market. Predefined Entry and Exit: This strategy's effectiveness hinges on precise entry (below the 585'6 neckline) and a clear target at 552'4. By maintaining these predefined parameters, the trade maximizes its alignment with both technical and fundamental setups. This trade setup offers a balanced approach, allowing for downside exposure with risk under control, making it well-suited for periods of volatility or substantial downward moves. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. Also, some of the calculations and analytics used in this article have been derived using the QuikStrike® tool available on the CME Group website. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZWH2025Education
by traddictiv
2
BTC: Imminent Breakout with Final Swing Trade OpportunityA breakout for BTC is on the horizon. We’ve seen a small breach of the upward trendline, and with momentum building, we’re now watching closely for a decisive break of the upper trendline. If this happens, Wave 4 will be complete, leaving only Wave 5 of 5 of 5 remaining. Once a full open and close above the trendline is confirmed, I’ll be going long, planning to ride it until Wave 5 completes. This could be the final swing trade of the season before a lengthy corrective phase sets in—a potential year-long winter of correction. If you’re looking for a last big trade before the market cools, now’s the time to prepare.
Long
by cryptechcapital
1
Gold Triangle Breakout! Targeting the Key Pink ZoneGold is forming a triangle pattern on the 1-hour chart, and I’m watching closely for a breakout! 📈 If the price breaks out of the triangle with confirmation, I'll be looking to go long, aiming for the next pink zone as the target 🎯. Strategy: Enter on confirmed breakout, hold until we approach the pink zone, then reduce my position as it may attract sellers. I’ll update here if anything changes! What’s your take on this trade? Let me know below! 👇
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by rebenga93
GBP/CAD Bearish Breakout Expected from RangeGBP/CAD is expected to break out to the downside after a period of ranging market conditions. Despite multiple market data releases, the pair remained unaffected and has shown a consolidation pattern. I believe the ranging phase is over, and GBP/CAD is now beginning a bearish trend. The first target for this move is 1.76450 , with potential for further downside Currently, the RSI is below the oversold level, indicating a possible correction before the breakout continues. I plan to add some positions at this point, and if the RSI impulsively moves up to the 50 level, I will add more positions. Best of luck with this bearish trade!
Short
by ClearTradingMind
Bitcoin - Now Is The Time For A Breakout!Bitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ) will exit the consolidation now: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 The only factor which is really driving the price of Bitcoin is technical analysis. And everything is pointing towards a bullish breakout above the preivous all time high and significant follow through. Make sure you somehow participate in the bullrun, either with altcoins or Bitcoin. Levels to watch: $70.000, $100.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by basictradingtv
16
XRP Price Analysis: Potential 20% Drop Amid Key Support LevelsXRP is currently trading within a box pattern, with a lower high suggesting a higher probability of a downside breakout. If the crucial support level of $0.5213 is lost, there is a 20% potential drop in price, targeting $0.4164. If you are holding XRP, you might consider selling, or alternatively, you could take a short position upon a clear break of the $0.5213 level. Given the importance of this support, a sharp decline is expected if it breaks. Keep an eye on this critical zone for any significant moves.
Short
by saeedalipour93
Nasdaq - This Is Just The Beginning!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) is starting the next parabolic rally: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Although the Nasdaq is about to create a new all time high, this is just the beginning of the next major higher timeframe bullrun. The Nasdaq just broke above the channel resistance and is now heading for a +30% move. It feels absolutely counterintuitive - welcome to the stock market. Levels to watch: $20.000, $26.000, $16.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:NDQLong
by basictradingtv
29
BTC ANALYSIS (update)🔮 #BTC Analysis - Update 🚀🚀 💲 As we said earlier #BTC performed the same. Now we can see that there is a breakout of the pattern in #BTC. But there is an instant resistance zone. After breakout above the resistance zone, we would see a new higher price in #BTC 💸Current Price -- $67,700 📈Target Price  --  $73,500 ⁉️ What to do? - We have marked crucial levels in the chart . We can trade according to the chart and make some profits. 🚀💸 #BTC  #Cryptocurrency #Breakout #DYOR
Long
by ZEUS_Market_Alerts
3
BTC, can confirm we confim the breakout?Please check the previous idea to get the bigger picture - You find it in my profile Hello everyone, Bitcoin reached the top line of the flag pattern, that was built from the 74k top. We got a strong move up, but the breakout didn't even reached 70k. Bearish Case Currently we are in a correction of about 3000 Dollar and the correction could expand, if the current support from the 1H 200 EMA will be lost. The next support would come in between 64k and 65k. Bullish Case If the price can stay above 66500 and breaks the pattern to the upside, it will face resistance at 68k and needs to get over 68400 to continue the path to the upside. If that's the case, 73k should be the next target
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Kyrean
Bitcoin can rebound up from pennant to 71K pointsHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. Observing the chart, we can see that the price rose to the current support level, which coincided with the support zone. After it reached this level, it some time traded near and even entered the support area, but then dropped to the buyer zone. Also, the price started to trades inside the pennant, where later, BTC rebounded from the buyer zone and started to grow. Soon, the price turned around and made a correction movement to support line of the pennant. After this, BTC turned around and made impulse up, making a fake breakout of the 60800 level. In a short time later, the price reached the current support level, broke it, and made a retest. Then it continued to grow until reached the resistance line of the pennant, after which, a not long time ago, it rolled down. So, at the moment, I think that the price can decline to support line and then rebound up, exiting from the pennant pattern. After this, I think BTC can continue to grow, for this case, I set my TP at 71000 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Long
by LegionQ8
15
ATOM ANALYSIS📊 #ATOM Analysis ✅There is a formation of Descending Channel Pattern in daily chart with a breakout of Descending Channel. But there is an instant resistance zone.🧐 Pattern signals potential bullish movement incoming after the confirmation of breakout of the pattern 👀Current Price:  $4.800 🚀 Target Price:    $6.580 ⚡️What to do ? 👀Keep an eye on #ATOM price action and volume. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits⚡️⚡️ #ATOM  #Cryptocurrency #Breakout #TechnicalAnalysis  #DYOR
Long
by ZEUS_Market_Alerts
'THE XRP BREAKOUT CHART' - May predict the month of the breakoutTHE XRP BREAKOUT CHART is a chart I created to show a very interesting trend that I discovered within XRP's monthly chart. Four times in XRP's previous price action history, prior to periods of significant price appreciation, XRP formed a FVG (fair value gap), as shown in the white boxes, which consisted of three candles. Then, while within that FVG, price broke out on the 8th candle four consecutive times. Three of these four FVG breakouts were preceded by, or included, a single liquidation candle breaking below the lower trend line. Regarding current price action, we just saw the pattern liquidation candle this past July. So, it appears that this trend will continue for the next breakout of the current wedge pattern. However, the key takeaway is that the pattern FVG has not formed, which means, as of this month (October), if the pattern is to repeat for a fifth time, then we are at a minimum of eight months away from the breakout we have all been waiting for. The herd—retail investors and YouTube influencers—believe, in sync, that the breakout will begin in mid-December, continue through January, and peak around late February to early March. According to this chart, they’re all wrong. I believe that incredible price appreciation is coming in the future, but I think this pattern will repeat. That means the breakout of the current wedge pattern, at the earliest, will be sometime around mid/late summer to early fall of 2025, most likely on the 8th monthly candle within the next FVG formation. But when will the first three candles form? Good luck, and always use a stop loss!
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by MetaShackle
11