Hunting Breakouts with Bollinger Bands and OBVThanks to zAngus for the idea, here is a simple trading strategy that uses two tools: Bollinger Bands and OBV to find moments when an asset's prices can increase or decrease.
First and foremost, please note that this explanation is simplified and only covers the basics. Each individual can develop their own settings and adjustments according to their own preferences.
Imagine that you are looking at a price chart of an asset. This chart shows how prices have changed over time. Sometimes prices go up and sometimes they go down.
The trading strategy we are going to show you can help you find moments when prices are about to change direction.
- Bollinger Bands are lines that show a zone where prices of an asset are likely to stay.
These lines have two parts: a middle line that shows an average of prices and two other lines that show the zone where prices should be.
The lines widen and narrow based on the volatility of prices.
- OBV (On-Balance Volume) is another tool that measures whether more people are buying or selling an asset.
If more people are buying an asset, OBV increases, and if more people are selling an asset, OBV decreases.
Now, here is how we use these two tools to find moments when an asset's prices can increase or decrease:
1. First, we wait for prices to stabilize for a certain amount of time. This means that prices don't go up or down much during a given period.
2. Next, we look at the Bollinger Bands to see if prices have reached the upper or lower limit. If prices exceed the upper limit, it may mean that prices will increase.
If prices fall below the lower limit, it may mean that prices will decrease.
3. To confirm what we have seen in the Bollinger Bands, we look at the OBV.
If OBV increases or decreases at the same time as prices exceed the upper or lower limit of the Bollinger Bands, it means that more people are buying or selling the asset, and this reinforces our idea that prices will increase or decrease.
4. We enter the market by buying or selling the asset based on whether we think prices will increase or decrease.
5. We exit the market when prices reach the opposite upper or lower limit of the Bollinger Bands or an important resistance zone.
This is a simple strategy, but it can help find moments when an asset's prices can increase or decrease.
Remember that you must always use good risk management to avoid losing too much money if the market doesn't follow your forecast.
Please note that this Bollinger Bands and OBV breakout trading strategy involves risk and is intended for educational purposes only. Any investments made using this strategy are done at your own risk, and you should always do your own research and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.
Breadth Indicators
SPX head and shoulders with bad newsS&P formed a head and shoulders while bulls are overextended. So stocks had some downward momentum and then I mentioned if any bad news say the fed was Hawkish... which he was...stocks would drop.... which they have... I think this can go much lower now... If it drops below 392 I think the bull case is over.
Note:
I had posted this yesterday before the drop today but got hidden by mod as I think they thought I was using private/custom script/indicators which I clearly show this time I am not. Everything is public that I use and available in the public indicators. No private scripts have been used nor any public scrips have been modified. I just combined multiple indicators on same line using the object viewer which I believe is allowed.
Downward ChannelA little outbreak has been sold and the sale is retracing now. As we have fallen back into the downward channel and the ADX shows no momentum I suppose that the attempt to rise will come to a halt. This idea finds support as we could not rise above the resistance line that has been tested since 2020.
Spot vs Ampl
Will be interesting to see how these two will attract towards same price over time.
Current target price is CPI $1.14 for both $ampl and $spot
$SPY AKA Humpty DumptyI'm struggling to understand any of the long ideas out there for $SPY. Not saying I'm right, but there doesn't seem to be much upside left here. Market breadth is very overbought and there's a lot of resistance up top.
I expect the debt ceiling shit show to give us a shorting catalyst. AMEX:SPY
SPY Swing Long on ReversalSPY dropped to a mid Fib level from the recent pivot high and bounced.
Price is now rising in a channel predictive for a 1% rise tomorrow.
The ADX indicator shows the negative direction reversed and now positive
and rising out of the chop zone confirms the reversal as a solid one not
a fake out as does the MACD with a crossover under the histogram
I will trade this with strike 392 calls for expiration this Friday expectant
for 25+% return in two days
Is this the bottom, up from here?More than 50% of the stocks in the SPX are now back above their own 200 day moving averages, and trending up, after reaching a low of nearly 90% below their 200 day MA. The intensity of new 52 week lows also seems to be decreasing.
Is this an early sign the SPX itself will move back above it's 200 day MA?
S&P 500: Will October’s Lows Be Retested?It’s common to hear strategists predicting the S&P 500 will retest its October lows. Today’s charts consider the big index to ask whether its technicals support such a deep pullback.
First, the daily chart may have a basing pattern around 3,800. Also notice some potentially relevant candlesticks, starting with a hammer on December 22. The New Year began with an outside day (and false breakdown under 3,800), followed by an inside bar on Wednesday. That kind of price action may suggest prices are finding a floor.
Second, the Relative Strength Index has been turning higher and is now above its RSI-based moving average.
Taking a step back, remember that the index based at 3,600 as the fourth quarter began. Is it now basing 200 points higher as a new quarter begins? (Both times defying projections of a 3,200 floor.)
Next is the S&P 500’s weekly chart. The 3,800 level represents a 50 percent retracement of the rally between early October and late November. It’s also near a monthly low from last May.
In addition, the last three weekly candles have long tails, which may suggest buyers have defended lows.
Finally, breadth appears to be strong. (The Advance/Decline line has continued to push higher and is back near its recent peak.)
Of course, upcoming events like CPI on January 12 and corporate earnings are potential risks. But if the index holds its ground through those headlines, traders may find it’s already established a new and higher low.
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Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
⚠️ SPY with OBV in bearish divergence📈 The chart continues with higher funds, but the volume does not follow this movement as demonstrated by the OBV.
Which signals a bearish divergence. 🐻❄️👎
🤔 I believe there could be a spike just to liquidate the positions, leading to a big trap:
🛑 Furthermore, the OBV has just broken the white dotted line, entering the red zone, overcoming the fall of the Corona Crash for the worse:
🤥 That is, the price is higher than Corana Crash, but the volume is lower...
☁️The market can be manipulated by the big players with their Machiavellian plans and government artifacts, but volume doesn't lie!
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200 MA breadth analysis indicates SPX goes up from here!This idea is based on the analysis of the 200 day moving average breadth data for the SPX. Every time since 2007, when market breadth broke out of a downwards moving channel this was an excellent buying signal for the SPX. This signal can be seen as a confirmation for the end of the downwards correction and/or bear market. We recently had such a signal on Oct 24th!.
Ascending Triangle in Ralph LaurenAn under-the-radar trend in recent weeks has been strength in legacy retailers like Macy’s , Gap and Ross Stores. Today’s chart focuses on a potentially bullish pattern in peer Ralph Lauren.
Notice the series of higher lows since November 10, when earnings and revenue beat estimates. There’s also a resistance zone around $104.50. The result is an ascending triangle, a potentially bullish pattern.
Second, the top of the triangle is near RL’s previous peak in August (also following a strong quarterly report). This could make the current resistance area and triangle more important.
Third, the stock is trying to push above its 200-day simple moving average.
Next, RL is in the process of forming its second consecutive inside candle on the weekly chart. That also highlights its tightening price action (with subsequent breakout potential.)
Finally, MACD has been steadily rising.
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Important Information
TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates.
Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
Optimism poised for a 75% draw downTLDR: Lots of well established TA suggests OP takes out the previous lows at 0.41.
Analysis
I am going to begin with the divergence primer just in case a reader is unfamilar with the divergences and what they mean.
Divergence Primer
Classic Divergence (Trend Reversal)
Bearish: Higher highs on price action but lower highs on the indicator
Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the indicator
Hidden (Trend Continuation)
Bearish: Lower high on the price action and higher highs on the indicator
Bullish: Higher low on the price action and a lower low on the indicator
As the chart shews both OPUSD and OPBTC both have great deal of hidden bearish divergence on the Log MACD (and histogram) as well as the RSI and Stochastic RSI.
The Gaussian channel is pretty powerful as support and resistance and generally speaking I get excited to buy beneath a red Gaussian channel or when I see price action powering its way through. Not so much with OP right now, with the hidden bearish divergences. I expect the top of the channel will continue as resistance.
Likewise the 100 Daily Moving Average is right above price action and I assume it will continue to act as resistance as well.
The volume situation doesn't look good to me either. With price breaking out above the Value Area of the VPVR to create all time highs and coming back in on both OPUSD and OPBTC I think we are going to see more typical behavior and the value area will act as resistance, especially on OPBTC.
The On Balance Volume has set virtually equal highs with this current peak and the peak from September. That is a sign of bullish exhaustion. It is also concerning that both the 10 and 20 SMA are below the 100. If the OBV regresses to the mean (the 10 or the 20) then that dip would get me deep into the money. Not all the way to target, but deep enough I can have a fairly profitable stop loss.
Here is a similar move on Matic over two years ago where Matic dupped and took out what looked like strong support at the 0 line before rallying up to just above the 0.618 retracement before crashing. From there it went 400x
If OP has a similar run then I will be quite pleased. Also, if OP crashes down to about the 0.28c I will go in full accumulation mode and hopefully we will see it run in another year or so.
Macro I still think a lot of the equities indices are mostly done with their downside. I also like a lot of the "OG" crypto currency coins like XMR, Dash, XPR, BCH and I think a lot of the nu-crypto coins that were the top runners of 2021 are going to crash at bit more before going into long consolidation. That is a lot of moving parts for me to hopefully get right.
BNT/BTC is having a divergenceWill BNT pop up? The OBV indicator is going higher while price is going sideways.
Bancor protocol is buying its own supply back. They quit minting new coins and are burning BNT.
They are developing a new AMM where the trading fees will always be paid in BNT.
The tokenomics are starting to look better.