Horizontal Horizontal movement this stock looks good for swing and position trades. Or as an option trade straddles and strangles. However one interesting aspect is that the OBV is in a trend upward, precluding an long run trend.
Breadth Indicators
What do YOU think happens next?Notice that On Balance Volume has been NEGATIVE FOR OVER A YEAR during this year-long topping process and its been on a trend of decline since the trend line of the 2000 to 2007 tops was crossed.
Has the mania ended?
You tell me; what do YOU think happens next?
I'm short...
Contrast Weekly vs Daily Timeframe OBV and RSI indicate a possible bounce to the upside. Keep eye on intraday for continuation downward or break to the upside. If you wanna play both sides a straddle or strangle option strategy two or three months out might be ideal. For a one sided trade check OTM (out-the-money) contracts and the Vol in the options contracts relative to the strike price before purchase - 220 and 125 or 200 and 140 strike price might be ideal. Also don't wait to long to purchases options contract, because as directional price movement becomes more apparent and as Implied Volatility creeps up the more expensive the options become.
(1D) XAUUSD v US30 - gold rush. There seems to be an inverse correlation between XAUUSD and US30. Interestingly Gold began taking off before the recent mini-crash. OBV on Gold was steadily rising whilst OBV on US30 was falling (even while price was recovering). BREXIT has caused deep uncertainty in a number of markets. GOLD has always been a major safe haven. We saw this at every major world financial crisis. They can't just print the stuff or do quantitative easing on GOLD - can they? LOL. I'm short on US30 and I've been happily long on Gold. My stop losses are in the right places relative to my account size. Cool.
Disclaimer: no liabilities accepted for losses arising by relying on this post.
(1D) US30 - WALL STREET - possible crash comingI'm no expert at Elliott waves, so my waves may be wrongly counted or drawn on this. But I'm watching a number of other things adding up. I see trend strength weakening. I see OBV probably heading down in a struggling bullish market. There is a similar wavy pattern emerging, similar to that around Nov 2015 to Jan 2016.
I'd be delighted if others who know more about Elliot Waves can help out. But do share any other ideas.
This idea is not a prediction .
Day of reckoning has come for oilThis last bullrun on oil prices wasn't really supported by volume and we can see that reflected on the OBV which increased only a fraction of what it fell when prices went from 34 top to 26 bottom. That is, volume was way lower on this 15 USD rally than it was on a drop of only half that amount !
This fake out, is confirmed by the money flow index, now coming back from oversold levels and breaking the wedge. This indicator has been rarely oversold and last time it did, price was around 100.
I believe we will re test 0,23 and maybe 0,5 both of them at signifcant levels from past peaks.
Bearish or accumulationWe have been on a long period with no clear trend, but looking at the weekly indicators, it shows that we just broke a large triangle and it is even shaping a head and shoulders pattern. All the indicators shown are really bearish on this time interval.
The best scenario would be an accumulation period that would take longer to define to the upside. I wouldn't bet on that unless we break 400 and stay there for several days.
A Clear 3rd of a 3rd Elliot Wave Down is underway - continuationv of iii circle of 3 appears to have begun in today's afternoon reversal ending the relief rally. Since v would be equal to i at 183, short of iii's termination, expect v to extend to 1.618 of i and end around 178 before the next short term relief rally to circle iv.
Main point is that the waves clearly indicate that the main trend has reversed. Also note that on balance volume has been negative all of 2015 and began a continuing outflow to to deeper negative territory at the end of (3) of last year's terminating ending diagonal.
Say goodbye to 200 in SPY...I don't think we will see it again for many years...
The big shortIf you use the weekly time interval and chart price back to the 1200 peak, you will find an interesting thing about OBV: we are at the same point, and we seem to have done a double peak. On the other hand, indicators like the RSI seem to be completing a H&S pattern which would be the beginning of a huge bear cycle. If this is the case, we could go back on the 300's or lower. I hope it's not, but it should be considered anyway.
What is McClellan Oscillator saying about the major averages?Although I have a bearish view on the major global stock market indices from a longer term cyclical perspective ( see older post ) and growing bearish momentum in the beginning of 2016 may well be a starting point, the McClellan oscillator, historically during a deeper market correct when oversold (below -80) has price resume an upward rally. Seeing this in the American markets may be a sign of some possibly temporary buying relief. Nonetheless price cyclicity will lead the way in informing a more pronounced down trend/bear market as some other major indices.
Seen too in NAS100 and DIA a relief rally may ensue.
NAS100
DIA
Short ATT? With Pleasure!AT&T is a terrible, clandestine company and they deserve to fail. This is not the reason I am shorting them, however.
Since the downgrade on 10/09 the stock seems to have trouble achieving and maintaining new levels. Furthermore, the Ichimoku cloud indicates some resistance from above at 35.63 or so, there is a lot of room to spare before we reach that level. The OBV indicator tells us that there is decreased buying pressure, and the MACD has recently crossed over. Finally the RSI confirms that this is a 'sweet spot' to make a trade.
For intermediary profit targets consider the two levels drawn from the lows going back to early October at 33.18 and 33.00, but note that after that, its smooth sailing through the vacuum area to the high of 10/02 at around 32.61. Stop losses may be set analogously using the relative high at 33.73, the Ichimoku cloud at 33.63, or if it crosses over the line segment forming the upper bound of the wedge.
Market Breadth Update: No News is Bad NewsMarket Breadth
HIGN/SPX:
The number of Stocks contributing to new highs continues to deteriorate and we haven't seen any improvement despite the gradual upside seen in Stocks indices..
This is the percentage of stocks on the New York stock exchange making new highs divided by the whole spx. The breadth shows that the bull market continues to be driven by fewer and fewer stocks, as the spx breaks to new highs however fewer and fewer stocks on the NYSE making new highs, driving the ratio down, especially within the recent months.
Stocks above long term average:
Swings from excessive bullish and bearish sentiment have been a good contrarian market indicator for the past years. Every time the indexes of stocks above or below 200-days Average reached an extreme of 90-100 percent a correction in SP500 was close.
Instances where the index started falling, diverging away from the SP500 index (indicating internal strength is weakening) were bearish signals, as at least a hefty correction followed. The chart below Illustrates these divergences, where periods of prolonged divergence followed by a more severe downside move, while minor divergences followed less severe corrections.
The ratio remains biased to the downside, failing to confirm rallies in the SPX ......
Good luck
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My best regards
Technician
On Balance Volume Explains what to Expect from SPY !SPY Has to break down one of these supports along with a Break down of OBV Horizontal support ( Red ) , OR SPY should make higher highs with OBV breaking out of the Descending Triangle Pattern , to sustain New Highs. !
Worsening macro and technical divergence sreams for a short(THIS IS THE RIGHT ONE - THE OTHER ONE DOESN'T HAVE OBV OR SPY TARGETS. SORRY!)
Sticking with the bearish case for US Equities I've made for most of 2015, I'm currently selling short a pretty significant position in SPY versus a long basket of Equities and bonds from the rest of the world. My rationale:
1. US Equities are still rich versus rest-of-world stocks in P/E ratios, even after the steep outperformance of DAX and NKY (among others) over SPX.
2. Real Money keeps adding big time to European and Asian mutual funds whilst withdrawing from US on the margin. The trend so far is evident on the divergence in stock prices and I expect it to continue.
3. Macro data in US keeps surprising on the downside over and over again... it made sense to 'buy the bad data' as a Fed put (specially on support zones), but aside from the macro impact, there's a significant impact of worsening economic conditions on corporate earnings that hasn't been priced into this market, IMHO.
4. Big divergences in RSI and On Balance Volume have been developing since late 2014; the market keeps climbing higher with diminishing momentum and buying volume.
4. Signs of strong resistance above 211 on SPY / 2110 on ES/SPX; since early March, the market hasn't closed decisively over this area.
Initial targets of 207.50 and 206.60 as signals of money supporting the market. If broken, next targets will be 205 (lower Boll-band on the daily frame); 202.32 (200-day MA); and whatever price SPY will be trading at when it hits 30 on the daily RSI. Will use trailing stops accordingly if the position moves in my favour.
Good luck trading.
Where next?Decision time. Bitcoin can drop further or slowly get back on track. The On Balance Volume (OBV) is declining, but still in a bullish supporting area. LazyBear's Money Flow Support/Resistance (S/R) Level shows with custom setting that the price is near, but also below last support.
Entry example for Long $247. Target: $294
Entry example for Short $253. Target: $194
P:S. More about LazyBear's great indicator package which contains 12 useful indicators:
blog.tradingview.com
Bullish inverted Head and ShouldersNeat downtrend.
Inverted H&S (please if you disagree let me know).
RSI and CVI (Cumulative Volume Index) both high at Head's peak and low on right shoulders:
Note: Since there is no volume, I looked at the CVI, but I don't know anything about it....:(
The target (1.077) converges with the top of the downtrend (resistance).
OBV Triangle and it's price equivalentI drew a triangle based on OBV's 50 hour moving average (orange),
and mirrored the triangle on price.
Red and green areas are 80/20 % overbought / oversold zones.
At this moment we are in the overbought zone so you can try a short here.
I expect a big move of ca. 50% after price breaks out of the triangle.
Targets:
Upside: 333-375
Downside: 130-90
Cheers : ]
-- PS: Here is the pine script code for the OBV indicator with moving averages: pastebin.com
Bearish divergence at key resistance levelVolume and OBV are both not supporting the bullishness of this wave (III)
We are likely to continue forming the wedge (in 5 waves ideally) on lower volume and break down right after.
Sell here and buy at the level of green support trend line.
For further analysis check out my other published charts that I linked bellow.
Cheers : ]
LNKD (Linked In) Target for 20% gainLinked in created and inverted ascending scallop -- confirmed. (thepatternsite.com). A bonus is the U-shaped volume with the pattern.
This alone sets the target price at 279.25.
In addition, a cup and handle is in the process of forming, which if successful, sets an intermediate target price at 263.
On Balance Volume (OBV) also remains in a very positive upward trend.
SP500: Time to Short Stocks.. Once More...The current market positioning seems pretty vulnerable, where after a 5-years bull market, serious technical warning signals have been persistent within the past year. So a short seems an attractive call just slightly higher, as the reward compared to risk is high.
I have discussed in my earlier posts some of these signals, such as market breadth deterioration, add to that the bearish breakout in high yield corporate bonds shown on chart, note that HYC bonds have been diverging failing to confirm the upside in equities for more than a year now.(HYCB and equities have been positively correlated).
Another behavior that evolved recently is the out performance of consumer staples sector compared to consumer discretionary, within the past 20 years, tops were preceded by such behavior(which is logical as defensive sectors are more appealing to investors in risk-aversion environment).
If we get a move higher following the FOMC meeting, i will be looking to short near 2035.
If you want to read more about these technical deterioration signals, please check the related links below
Guys, lets make a small sentiment survey here, if you're bearish just comment "Bearish", if you're bullish comment "Bullish".. for the coming few months ..I think we could ask the question in different way, do you think the latest high is the top for for the coming six months, or no? ..... Thank you
Best of luck. Join me at twitter.com
Also at my Facebook page www.thefxchannel.com
My best regards,
Technician
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Trading Criteria:
1. Trades are taken in two units
2. First unit would be closed at first target
3. Stop loss is then moved to break-even
4. Second unit would be closed at second target
Notes:
5) If 90 percent of first target is reached I move stop loss to breakeven.
6) If 90 percent of first target is reached without triggering entry I cancel the trade.
7) Remember: Losing is a main part of the game
BTCUSD setting up bullish, waiting for price to confirm.The key word of the last week has been whipsaw. This term is applied in trading circles when the price head’s in one direction, and then is quickly followed by a movement in the opposite direction. The price of bitcoin has entered a period of high volatility and is whipsawing all over the place. A few simple words here: traders beware. It is time to be vigilant and wait for the price to resolve it itself one way or the other and form a trend before putting money to work. The chart below shows how hard it has been to predict the price movement as we have moved from bearish to bullish back to bearish and are now back in the cloud. Right now price is bumping up against the top of resistance and a break through would be a bullish signal. The Lagging Line which is the slowest of the Lines has yet to pierce into the cloud and confirm a bullish move, if it does, that should mean we are seeing a bullish transition forming.
Based on recent trading it would be prudent to look at other indicators to confirm the move. The chart below shows some indicators we will use to get confirmations in the event that price breaks resistance. The RSI is in bullish zone despite the recent downturn and is has plenty of room to run if the price confirms to the upside. Money Flow has been very bullish and continues to be so, as money has continued to come into bitcoin despite all the volatility in price. MACD is close to crossing over which would trigger a buy signal. What’s even more significant is that MACD is now in positive territory when making the cross over, so this is another potential bullish signal. On Balance Volume (OBV) is trending at a low level, an upside move in price should be confirmed with a rising OBV. Using other indicators to confirm is essential when analyzing charts particularly when we are a period of uncertainty and waiting for signals to trade.
Conclusion
We don’t have any definite trading signals as price has created a false breakout followed by a false breakdown. Price is now back in the cloud and rubbing against resistance. The weight of the evidence leans bullish and if price confirms a buy signal will be triggered. In the meantime, there is no need to rush into a trade. Price will tell us what we need to know soon enough.
This is what bothers me of recent Nasdaq Comp RallyAD Issues is a GREAT breath indicator. It is still in a downtrend showing a big negative divergence. I dont like this at all
