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Warning Signs In Precious Metals ( REPORT UPDATE ) 03/04/17Warning Signs In Precious Metals 03/April/2017 TAKE A LOOK>>>>>>>>>>>> Precious metals closed the first quarter with solid gains. Gold gained almost 9% while Silver gained 14%. The miners (GDX and GDXJ) gained the same amounts (9% and 14%) but unlike the metals which closed at their highs of the quarter, ended up losing more than half their gains. Despite a strong quarter, the entire complex remains below the February highs and 200-day moving average (ex Silver) just days after the US Dollar index rebounded strongly from its own 200-day moving average. As the second quarter begins, the warning signs for precious metals are mounting. It is never a good sign when Gold is the strongest part of the sector and especially while the sector trades below key moving averages. While Silver rests above its 200-day moving average and has recently outperformed Gold on a percentage basis, unlike Gold it has yet to reach its late February highs around $18.50. So in that respect Silver has lagged Gold. Meanwhile, the miners have not even come close to returning to their 200-day moving averages or February highs. They first reached their 200-day moving averages ahead of the metals and also began their correction first. Gold is the strongest part of the sector but we see evidence it could weaken during the start of the second quarter. Gold has already failed twice at its 200-day moving average and now it must contend with a rebound in the US Dollar index. Last week the greenback enjoyed a strong rebound off its rising 200-day moving average. Furthermore, note that since December the greenback retraced only 38% of its advance from 92 to nearly 104. The strongest trends will retrace usually 38% or 50% of previous gains. Finally, while Gold against foreign currencies (Gold/FC) is quite strong from a bird’s eye view, it is currently showing a negative divergence to Gold as it is below its late February high. If Gold/FC is weaker than Gold it means that Gold is more vulnerable than usual to a rising US Dollar. As the second quarter begins, there are critical warning signs for precious metals. The miners typically lead the metals and their recent failure to return to their 200-day moving averages and February highs is a bad omen for the metals. In addition, last week we covered the GDX advance decline line which is so weak it couldn’t even come close to its 50-day moving average. Meanwhile, the US Dollar’s strong rebound off its 200-day moving average will provide additional resistance to Gold. Given that Gold is currently the strongest part of the sector, that is not good for the entire sector. We expected 2017 to be a grind. Be patient and if precious metals turn lower, wait to buy bargains amid oversold conditions. We continue to look for high quality juniors that we can buy on weakness and hold into 2018.
FX:XAGUSD
by Rupesh003
Warning Signs In Precious Metals ( REPORT UPDATE ) 03/04/2017Warning Signs In Precious Metals 04/03/17 TAKE A LOOK>>>>>>>>>>>> Precious metals closed the first quarter with solid gains. Gold gained almost 9% while Silver gained 14%. The miners (GDX and GDXJ) gained the same amounts (9% and 14%) but unlike the metals which closed at their highs of the quarter, ended up losing more than half their gains. Despite a strong quarter, the entire complex remains below the February highs and 200-day moving average (ex Silver) just days after the US Dollar index rebounded strongly from its own 200-day moving average. As the second quarter begins, the warning signs for precious metals are mounting. It is never a good sign when Gold is the strongest part of the sector and especially while the sector trades below key moving averages. While Silver rests above its 200-day moving average and has recently outperformed Gold on a percentage basis, unlike Gold it has yet to reach its late February highs around $18.50. So in that respect Silver has lagged Gold. Meanwhile, the miners have not even come close to returning to their 200-day moving averages or February highs. They first reached their 200-day moving averages ahead of the metals and also began their correction first. Gold is the strongest part of the sector but we see evidence it could weaken during the start of the second quarter. Gold has already failed twice at its 200-day moving average and now it must contend with a rebound in the US Dollar index. Last week the greenback enjoyed a strong rebound off its rising 200-day moving average. Furthermore, note that since December the greenback retraced only 38% of its advance from 92 to nearly 104. The strongest trends will retrace usually 38% or 50% of previous gains. Finally, while Gold against foreign currencies (Gold/FC) is quite strong from a bird’s eye view, it is currently showing a negative divergence to Gold as it is below its late February high. If Gold/FC is weaker than Gold it means that Gold is more vulnerable than usual to a rising US Dollar. As the second quarter begins, there are critical warning signs for precious metals. The miners typically lead the metals and their recent failure to return to their 200-day moving averages and February highs is a bad omen for the metals. In addition, last week we covered the GDX advance decline line which is so weak it couldn’t even come close to its 50-day moving average. Meanwhile, the US Dollar’s strong rebound off its 200-day moving average will provide additional resistance to Gold. Given that Gold is currently the strongest part of the sector, that is not good for the entire sector. We expected 2017 to be a grind. Be patient and if precious metals turn lower, wait to buy bargains amid oversold conditions. We continue to look for high quality juniors that we can buy on weakness and hold into 2018.
FX:XAUUSD
by Rupesh003
BTC Gameplan for Coming WeeksJudging on volatility pattern, blow-off top in running volume pattern and possible liquidity shortage due to regulation issues in China, market conditions on bitcoin are changing. Knowing bitcoin history one can easily deduct that such conditions are going to be very attractive for acccumulating BTC as it is going to get a relatively cheap and even riskless asset. Looking at the chart one can see an obvious pattern that has already appeared a few times at this market and is likely to be forming right now as long as BTC is not fundamentally changing itself.
B
by zhsloe
2
IVZ LongOn Balace Volume (OBV) shows that interest may be back in this great asset manager, which saw positive capital inflow as of the latest quarterly report despite an overall negative trend in the sector. When volume rises, price generally tends to follow. Noteworthy is also MACD which just crossover its signal hinting at a possible change of long-term trend. Furthremore, the possible volatily ahead could also play as a positive catalyst on the active managed funds positioning Invesco to benefit further. Should you want to discuss your ideas with me or give me any feedback, feel free to leave a comment!
NYSE:IVZLong
by CristianoVinattieri
Spontaneous remission from a terminal prognosisBMY recently has had poor lung cancer treatment results and is getting sold off, movement compounded by Mercks recent promising results in the the same treatment field. Today was another huge down day, with a push past 3 standard deviations according to a 20 day closing Bollinger Band. Long because On Balance Volume has been improving while the price has been falling, and it might be at a short term reversal. In at 49.91 with a target of 5% or 52.40 from an anticipated short term correction tomorrow. Price is holding in this range with a low of 49.72, and high of 51.30 for the day.
NYSE:BMYLong
by LuckyDinAZ
Wyckoff Accumulation Phases of Credit SuisseSome remarks on the price evolution of CS Credit Suisse stock was in a downtrend which ended with a selling climax (SCLX) on February 11 this year. After that CS showed signs of being accumulated. The Brexit vote initiated a huge shake out. During this shake out it broke below its trading range, after which it trended back up into the trading range. Here it tested the 12.56 support twice; once on the Deutsche Bank fine news and also today after CEO Tidjane Thiam said he expects a challenging third quarter. Currently it is in Phase D, or alternatively it might still be in phase B. Notice the volume peaks on down swings. This is a sign of buying pressure caused by the Composite Operator (or Insiders as Anna Coulling calls them) which buy in the lower end of the trading range, as discussed in the book "A Complete Guide to Volume Price Analysis " by Anna Coulling. I posted this idea before (linked below). On that chart you see the On Balance Volume indicator. Notice the explosion of the on balance volume for CS, right after the Brexit. And you know what they say: "volume precedes price". I also labeled the chart of CSGNZ. Notice the differences in volume, particularly during the selling climax: Some facts that support the hypothesis suggested by the technical analysis: STRONG HANDS HOLDING CS A very large part of CS shares is held by a few very large long-term investors that don't sell on weakness but use it to add to their core position (smart money). In fact they've added just recently. These kinds of buyers and shareholders explain the pattern we see in the CS and CSGNZ charts. In the last couple of weeks more than 20 percent of Credit Suisse shares is owned by three shareholders: Harris Associates (with David Herro as fund manager) owns more than 10 percent of shares ( August 22 , 2016). The Saudi Arabian Olayan Group , through its registered entity Crescent Holding GmbH, holds more than 5 percent of shares and about 5 percent in convertible bonds ( September 12 , 2016) and is/was represented by someone on the board. The Capital Group holds more than 5 percent of shares ( August 30 , 2016). www.credit-suisse.com www.thecountrycaller.com www.finews.com Besides these shareholders there is the state fund of Qatar that owns more than 5 percent of shares and about 13 percent in convertible bonds ( June 17 , 2016) and is represented by someone on the board. Considering the long and intimate relationship of the Qatar state fund and Credit Suisse it is safe to assume they didn't sell in the past 3 months and this would imply no less than 25% of shares being owned by no more than 4 shareholders in the past month. Another shareholder worth mentioning is the Norwegian Sovereign Fund (Norges Bank), which claimed beneficial ownership the day after the selling climax on February 11 (owning 5 percent of shares on February 12). These are the shareholders that were required to file a Schedule 13D with the SEC, due to beneficial ownership. But I bet there are a lot of other institutions buying CS without reaching beneficial ownership.
NYSE:CSLong
by Undertow