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US Dollar and the macro landscapeThe USD is currently looking pretty strong, with 96 looking very likely the first key target and resistance zone. It looks like it has formed a major based and has potentially bottomed for real... The US compared to other countries can raise rates a lot more and therefore the dollar could strengthen more, but the key is that raising rates will create all sorts of issues. There is too much US denominated debt and as rates go higher people struggle to pay debts and therefore sell real assets to buy USD. As inflation is going higher, people are already struggling to pay certain things and this is just the cherry on top. I seriously don't understand how raising rates will stop energy prices going higher, especially when the way the system is currently set and in its current state raising rates even to 3% would blow up the entire US junk bond market. There is too much leverage and malinvestment at this stage that can only be washed out violently. However I am not as bearish for now, especially on US stocks. I believe we will get a dip, and a strong dip but it is a great opportunity. I truly believe stocks have much higher to go and this is just an ordinary correction. We haven't had a 10% correction in the S&P 500 for about a year and in the meantime stock prices have risen tremendously. Yes there is more upside, but corrections are part of the game regardless of whether there is a narrative behind them or not. That could be high inflation, Fed raising rates, Evergrande or whatever... but the truth is that it was time. Based on my analysis stocks could fall another 5-10% before they bottom, but this doesn't mean it is going to happen in one candle. Expect chop for some time and a potential bottom when we get really high volatility with the VIX around 40. In the short term US rates could go up (bonds going down) and that move was building up for quite some time, but I don't think it will be a moonshot for rates and it won't be a long lasting move. At some point growth will slow down and many of the structural issues will be solved, so inflation will come down and we will be stuck in the same disinflationary environment... Lots of things will start breaking, lots of people will be trapped on the inflationary trade and rates will go negative next time around. So what do I see? Rates up to 1.5-2% and then back down again. What I find most interesting here is how the Russell 2000 looks like distribution, but as rates go up it could be the biggest beneficiary as people exit large caps to enter into small caps. Maybe that's a key rotation to pay attention to as it has shown quite a lot of strength recently. Not only that, but the lows on RUT could be broken violently and then we could see an even more violent come back with new highs shortly after (essentially that range being re-accumulation). Personally I really don't like the way the VIX has bottomed and I feel a big move is coming and that we will have a very volatile environment for quite some time. Things aren't going well globally and nothing has been done to fix all the issues going on. What worries me the most is how relentless Oil and Natural gas look like, which could do a lot of damage on huge parts of the economy as inequality keeps growing. We are stuck in a trap and we can't escape... a vicious loop that only makes things worse. So who knows... maybe my expectation for a small correction is small and a much larger one will come. It is clear that the main trend has broken and I have spoken about it quite a bit over the last few weeks. I have no idea how bad things could get, but for now being patient and waiting to buy the dip is what I think is best. Buy dips on Oil and Stocks. Forget metals and bonds for sure.
TVC:DXY
by BitcoinMacro
Inverse correlation between Gold/copper VS. YieldWe have a very nice inverse correlation between Gold/Copper (XAUUSD/CPRUSD) VS. TNX ( 10 year yield). in the red zone we see TNX going down while The Gold/copper chart resist to go up... Maybe ( and just maybe ) TNX was making a bull flag and according to this inflation we may see more upside from TNX and then Gold/Copper will go down. My goal range for TNX is about 1.92 while we are approaching to the end of the year and we may see Gold again in 1600$ range. Going up in TNX will hit the bond market and a lot of money will flow into stock market ( positive for #SPX #SPY), and the result will be drastic uspide move into stock market. How long will this continue, is the question. What s your IDEA ? put it in comments.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by nabavi57
tlt \\ wave 5 swingmorning, tlt looks to have been in a prolonged triple 3 correction for this complex wave 4 triple 3's can be described as an area of re-accumulation by smart money, before the next mark up phase begins. after hitting the downside wave 4 algo target perfectly today, i do think the triple 3 has been completed. possible it hangs out around this range for a few more days to meet the fib-time ratio for this w4. ------- my upside target sits at $157, but there's a good posibility it goes higher than what i am current projecting here. stop loss below the 0.382 ps. the debt ceiling vote later today might play a big influence on where tlt goes next - so def make sure to keep a tight stop, just in case that vote ends up flopping.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by notoriousbids
1
TNX Heading Higher?Not really sure what to make of this just yet, but the 10Y yield definitely appears to be heading higher. Ironically enough, this is happening amid a #fed that is committed (at least in the near term) to maintaining low interest rates. My guess is the Fed knows rates will rise on their own, thereby creating a competitive environment among lenders. We will continue to watch this one; for now it looks like we are heading to test 1.75 - 1.77. Neither long, nor short for now. Let's just observe.
TVC:TNX
by ChiefMacro
Fed announces Taper and what this means for stocks and crypto. The federal reserve just announced a potential taper of the asset purchase and start reducing the growth of their balance sheet going into 2022. This taper could potentially end in mid 2022 and Jerome Powell announced they would consider raising rates depending on the economic situation then. This clearly reflects that inflation is running wild in the United States and their fingers are on that button to prevent it from running wild. Both the US 10y treasury as well as the SPX are seen rising together which is another sign there is too much money chasing too little goods and services. The price action of the bond market looks to mimic that of October 2017 if the taper really starts in November 2021. Q4 2017 was the year when the federal reserve starts to unwind their balance sheet and unload the assets that they purchased into the markets. The risk on assets like stock and Bitcoin fell heavily right after....
TVC:US10YLong
by IkanBilisCapital
Rates Breakout - Be Cautious on the ramifications24/Sep/2021 08:22 AM AUTHOR: Brandon Gum -- 10 yr yield is breaking out. This is after they were down 5% on Monday of this week on Evergrande default contagion fears. Fed met this week. They indicated tampering(?) Sentiment trader suggested that lots of money managers are not positioned for a move higher in rates and to be careful of your positioning and know what you own. IWM should outperform (as they do with rising rates - though I dont understand the text book theory behind this. Regional banks should do well in rising rate environment. Growth names that leverage cheap capital will be hit. No comments on other sectors. Im not there in my development yet. ======================
TVC:TNX
by gumbtg
Ominous signs from the Leading Indicators panelLooking across the panel of leading indicators, it is starting to look as if something ominous is almost completed in building up and about to pop... The JNK High Yield bond ETF is hitting a resistance; The IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF is in a bind, unable to break out as MACD is crossing into bearish region; The TIPS Bond ETF is falling over; The VIX is about to burst in break out, MACD bullish divergence supporting; The DJ Trans had already brokedn down closing at a 6 month low, and MACD is already bearish; The Value Geometric line is following suit soon; The TLT bond ETF just attempted to break out, and should see another move upwards in the weeks coming; and The Copper futures prices is not sustaining any bullishness and about to breka down, MACD leading the way. Overall, the next two weeks will be volatile, and decisively down at some point. Heads up!
AMEX:TIPShort
by Auguraltrader
10Yr ZN - Wandering Bishop - ROCsEnraged Evergrande Investors weild Laterns and Pitchforks. The carnage for hostages provides a demonstration to our thesis for Banking and Bonds. Perhaps a soft default in October when the Government runs its tap dry temporarily. Further evidence, things are not well at all. The chart illustrates the First Accident 2020 Covid Event. The second, required YCC to brings circumstance out of control with 10 yr ROCs spiking at the fastest rate in History. Perhaps the 3rd time pushes on through into the Bond Kingdom Revolution. We shall see, we continue to build the Big Lick for Bonds.
FRED:THREEFYTP10
by HK_L61
24
SPX500 vs TLT : Are you expecting a big than ever drop? When...Just a fast idea about correlation between SPX500 (US500) and TLT. I'm more bearish than bullish over Sp500, however I just find out TLT correlation with market. Just read more... I was expected a major drop here in September, but seems not strong enough. My other target is around March / April. Why? Because of Financial results. Can we expect super good gains in a market that drained every stock reserve in 2 year where retails "buyed everything they can find, while at home?" I suppose no. You simply can't sell a 10$ Toys for 100$. If you can't find enough supply, at least you can rise price a little to 15$, maybe 20$. But if before you where able to sell 200.000 pcs x 10$ = 2M$, now you only have 10.000 x 15$ = 150.000$. Freaky! Can we expect a faster recover in production while there are production "bottle necks" everywhere? I suppose no. If I need 200.000 toys, I must find them. But if production limit is 1000 toys for week, and there are no stock reserve and high demand, my order must be shared with others. Price will be rise a little. And if my production machine broke, I must wait for a spare part. And if I produce Spare Part I must wait for chip supplier to produce it. To many "bottle necks" everywhere. Can we expect a fast FED tapering? Maybe not, will only accelerate collapse. So anyone will stay in silence, waiting ... for collapse. BUT WAIT... WHY TLT? IS IT WORTH? Maybe not so worth, but higher TLT prices means less buying interest on Governative Bond. Lower prices means more are buying TLT, and this means "standard stock market credibility" just slowing down , melting off. Reads : sell stock & buy bond / commodities. As always is only a matter of "capital movement" not to HODL till die. Just learn from Pro. Small gains everydays just build more capital than HODL. YES BUT MY BTC STORE VALUE IS GREAT! TO THE MOOOON! Ok, free to believe this. Only ask your self if Pro will really trust on BTC as temporary Store Value (like GOLD is only temporary) or if... they are going to screw every small retail. TO MAKE IT SIMPLE Whatever will happen, Oil prices, Tapering, Yield Interest, BTC to the moon... from a perspective of "simple buy and sell goods" we are already screwed. We need time to recap production, to fill warehouse, to arrange product stock supply reserve. Hope is oil price will no go up any further, hope is in some sensate economical intervention, hope is... in cypto decentralization Fomo anarchic mind set. Ok... We are all screwed. No way, only matter of time. ONE LAST THING... Can you figure the "Black Swan" when will enter in the play field? Who or what will be the Jolly Joker for a complete decline? Share your vision. ----------------- This is not Financial advice. Only my idea. Feel free to share, comment or add missing information. And why not? Will you consider to donate something for some other post like this? Just contact me.
NASDAQ:TLT
by STABLECOINS_GURU
TLT - The Madness of Mass Delusions10Yr Yields declined as international Capital Flows began demanding dollars out of the fear as to what is occurring outside the USSA. This implies, as well, a robust demand for perceived "Safety" - the very last thing it actually is. Europe, as we have indicated for months now, remains a basket case. For as bad as it is here, it's worse there. However, this is short term in its duration as the USSA is losing favor as a "Partner" of actual substance. The Long Con remains in trade. It will get a lot worse outside the USA which remains bullish on capital inflows. Simply watch France as they are teetering on another Bastille Moment. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ That said, the objective of the Level Pullers is not friendly. Sending hoards of cash into the Fed Reverse Repurchase Market - reduces the cash in the Banks. This ONLY accelerates the liquidity crisis, which, in the very short term can have an important effect on Yields. It is temporary. Christine LaGarde, has been inferring that a policy shift is taking place which will be a transition in 2022. Stimulus policies have totally failed and the negative interest rates have destroyed the European Bond Market. Inflows to USTs is axiomatic for the EU, for the UK... not so much as they have shown a clear and present desire to position to China's Bond Market... slowly. The ECB's ONLY tool remaining is the rather hurried rush to digital currency ASAP for Europe is out of time. It will not go over well and lead to immense Social unrest. France, Ireland, Spain, Greece, Italy won't simply roll-over. 80 Central Banks around the Globe desire digital currencies according Lagarde - "We think that it's a duty of us to actually have available digital currencies that would operate to the benefit of consumers." There is nothing the governments ever do that is for the benefit of consumer citizens unless it benefits the Government 1st. LaGarde intends to end Private Cryptocurrencies. In her own words - "funny business" in Crypto needs to end, once and for all. They will be regulated out of business... plan for it. When you replace "Currency" which comes into existence from DEBT, Governments no longer need DEBT MARKETS aka Bonds. Currency no longer exists, Unlimited Pokemon Cards do however. The ability of the ECB to continue buying endless debt from its member states is coming to an end. Pressures to break up the EU is growing and this above all is driving the ECB to take drastic actions. They will cancel the Euro ahead of schedule, sending the FX Markets into a tailspin. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ UST Bond HODLers somehow believe this works well for them... it can in the very short term. Ultimately, the Tide begins to approach our shores as Confidence itself evaporates. The game of borrowing forever with no intention of paying anything back is coming to an end and with it the US Bond Markets. What will be the Value of your Bonds? They will become "Perpetual" - you will be allowed, permitted and forced to accept a coupon with no return of principal, that will be in Lock Down for good. Any/All protest from the SVM / Bong Community will have to provide critical rebuttal of the above for any further consideration. Unintelligent Echo is considered amorphous, Vapid, Delusional, Degeneracy and participation in its own demise. We are no longer entertaining idiocy. - Hunter Killer
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
21
ZN - 10 Yr Note - Continued Move to Higher Yields - ZN TLT ZBTLT is beginning it's terminal phase for the next decline. We Sold to Open TLT this morning, taking our First Position at our Target, with further Sells to 150s Set. Out dated Maturities, we have been suggesting for the past month are due for a large correction in Yields. Day to day noise is just that... Noise. Bond HODLers are convinced they have it figured out. They clearly do not or they would not be supporting an enterprise steeped in criminal activity. 3 Fed Members have now been admitted to Front Running Markets for their own Benefit. CONfidence inspiring.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by HK_L61
1
10 Year Treasury Note - ROC's Building againRates of Change for Yields will face increasing Competition in the coming weeks. We anticipate further to quickly be met with YCC. Yields have been mixed at lows, attempting to Hang their Man. Central Banks receive their orders on High. Governments can no longer borrow to fund their annual spending. Digital "Currency" proposals from the WEF via Lagarde at the IMF, Echoed @ the BIS and then it's stepchild the ECB. The Debt can of worms can no longer be kicked down the road. Europe is in the final stages of collapsing under the Existing System. This will spread Cajun style, like a swamp Gator that eats everything that moves in the DEBT SWAMP. Rumors (Credible) of the Federal Reserve accepting Direct Deposits is halting the Primary Dealer network of Banks (First Abusers) who, via Trading Arms and partners such as BlackRock and VanGuard and many other smaller boutiques such as Gelber - have been able to manipulate ALL Markets without consequence... The Federal Government required them to sell their DEBT. This effort is very clearly coming to a decided end. Globally, the entire Financial System and edifice is being dumped on its Head.
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
3
PCG - Going as Planned***None of the idea I share, including this one, should be taken as financial advise. Tread lightly and if ever you find yourself certain of something, think again.*** Previous Idea and Trend In my previous idea (linked) on PCG I said I'd expect this stock to struggle downward most of the summer and reach a strong support level in the low $9.00 range. This has been the case so far and there's not much that's changed to affect my view, at this point. Reiteration I still believe the current price level is this stock's bottom until there are other catalysts. It will remain around this level for the remainder of the summer with a possible break-out later this year (October or November). Other News PCG's decision to burry 10,000 miles of cable to mitigate fire risk is, in my view, an attempt to save face given the present concerns over PCG's role in the Dixie fire and sensitivity around the wildfire subject at large. I say this because cable burial, even when done as cheaply as feasible, is very expensive when compared to overhead installations. My preference would have been for PCG to make large investments in overhead protection of assets (specifically fuse-linked cutouts and surge-arrester failures). There are plenty of asset protection devices that almost completely mitigate the chance of asset failure and subsequent fire creation. This could have been done with fractions of the cost of cable burial and could have been done system wide instead of only across select segments (where the likelihood the most effectual burial segments could be miss-identified is high). In my estimation, this move's short-sightedness it mitigated by the comfort provided from concern management is showing toward future fire prevention. Dixie Fire and PCG From what I've read, it seems very unlikely PG&E had a role in starting the Dixie fire; more so considering the exact verbiage of any legal challenge would include the word "negligent". Thus far, legal "challenges" have been political in nature rather than legally interesting: All fear, loathing, and grand-standing. Even if PG&E is found to have behaved negligently resulting in the Dixie fire, the structure of AB 1054 provides reasonable downside protection. The Fed's Role As always, in this current market, we have to consider Fed actions. If talk of asset tapering manifests into actual tapering I would expect this stock to fall. We shall see. Position Additions I'm still not looking to add to my position until the common stock reaches mid-to-low $7.00 range.
NYSE:PCG
by forever_green
Bond Curve - Long End where Fiscal Funding is FundedThe Dollar has very large Trendline support as well as the 50SMA. The pressure this exerts can be extreme. The rising trend indicates the potential for an extreme move in the Rate of Change (ROC) once again. The move will be very strong as 2 events are in play: 1. DX Hoarding 2. Net Drains @ FED and US Treasury * Of Note, the future of stimulus was made clear this week as California announced their intent to provide Universal Basic Income at a flat rate of $1000/per person. YCC remains active ahead of the September Federal Reserve Policy Statement. Frankly, a non-event imho. Since the end of March 2021, the 10Yr has dropped from 1.74. The question being asked - What is the Bond Market indicating? Answer - the FED smacked their noses for attempting to call them out on their endless BS.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by HK_L61
6