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Bonds

Bond Yields to Rise again soon - heading towards 1.8%I think its fair to agree that in the long term, with interest rates expected to rise, and monetary policy tightening, that bond yields willl rise inevitably. but the question really is when. Whilst i cant judge when that will be... i can try and get some good timings (for short positions on bonds - since bond prices are inverse to yield). Yields should bottom out near 1.25% fairly soon... after which i would look to see the yields rise back to around 1.8 or possibly more.
TVC:US10YLong
by nmiah7c
Global bonds rout put central banks on the spot What a crazy market,” said Priya Misra, global head of rates strategy at TD Securities. “The 20s-30s curve is just reflecting the overall flattening theme in the market -- where central banks are forced to respond to inflation, which slows growth significantly.” Yield-curve flattening has gained momentum across global bond markets this week as traders scrambled to price in more aggressive central-bank actions to fend off inflation. The Bank of Canada surprised investors Wednesday by abruptly ending its bond-buying stimulus program and accelerated the potential timing of future interest rate increases; the Canadian yield curve flattened sharply in response. While declining oil prices account for some of the pullback in breakevens, “profit-taking after a very strong run over the past several weeks” was also a likely factor, said Michael Pond, head of inflation market strategy at Barclays Capital Inc. “We might be seeing de-risking ahead of the Fed,” which has been mindful of inflation expectations and doesn’t want to appear to be behind the curve, Pond said.
TVC:US10YLong
by GrizzlyBearBee
Bond market volatility rocks the EuroData released Thursday showed that U.S. GDP growth slowed sharply to a 2% annualized rate in the third quarter. Meanwhile, investors continued to price in rate increases by the European Central Bank, while dismissing President Christine Lagarde’s effort to push back against such expectations. Market expectations of higher interest rates has brought out bears, with Danske Bank strategists expecting the euro to fall to $1.10 over the next 12 months.
Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
US10Y Signs of a bearish reversal.The US10Y has reached (and so far got rejected on) the 1.707 Resistance (1), which last time rejected the price on May 13. With the 1D RSI on a Bearish Divergence (is on Lower Highs while the actual price is on Higher Highs), similarities can be made with the February 25 - March 30 sequence, which after an RSI Bearish Divergence got rejected on the 1.775 Resistance (2) and essentially started the correction towards the 1.125 Support. We are expecting a pull-back towards the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement level and if broken the 0.618 level which may be even more likely as it is the top of the recent High Volatility Cluster. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
4
TREASURY BONDS CREATING LIQUIDITY BEFORE MOVE UP?Hello my beauties. The bonds seem to be in a strong downtrend, and the volume profile suggests that the most liquidity is actually clustered around the upwards trendline area. I suspect the price will be directed there to generate enough liquidity for the next move up. If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair. Consider supporting me if you think I am providing you with value. Peace. Luca, TrickleDownFX
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by TrickleDownFX
1
TLT - ThunderBall as TNX trades thru 1.564139s and perhaps lower as this will begin to unravel the Equity markets as we approach the prior highs. The Fuse for the next leg down in the Equity Complex is being lit. And the reason for the RUSH to Wall Streets higher FIlls. Things are quickly coming apart in the REPO Markets as well. This sets up the potential for a large Rug Pull... 1.71 - 1.76 and it's going to get very Sporty. Banks are not lending, higher rates do them very little. Savers are being torqued by Inflation as the Wood Panelers and 007s can't seem to find a Bid for their Junk Paper. This will get nasty in the next 10 days. Very Nasty, they are using the lul between Expiry in VX to hoist price as far as they can only to let it go again. We see 15K on NQ with the Gap at 15.2K and the Ledge 15.4K. NQ has traded the -382 of the 15399 to 14367 decline. With tomorrow's Macro Job / Employment Report, the silliness can get out of hand quickly. IMHO, this will end rather badly as we roll back over and begin the 200SMA assualt.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
10
Double Bottom in German Bunds, Expected Rally to 171.2Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 15-Min Chart. German Bunds (FGBL1!) formed a double bottom or W chart pattern setup after testing 169.60 support and break above 170.3 resistance. Expectations are for the uptrend to continue, with the completion of the setup being around the 171.20 price level. Failure of the setup will be observed if FGBL1! were to decline below the long term moving average, taking the price to 169.80. Technical Indicators During the course of the double bottom setup, the respective short (50-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages had positive crossovers. Currently the price is trading above the respective MAs. Other technical indicators are also displaying bullish signs. The RSI is trading above 50 while the KST recently had a positive crossover. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 169.80 and a target of 171.2. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.37. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. Currently I have a position in FGBL1!.
EUREX:FGBL1!Long
by Ceddy86
Barn Bridge ($BOND) is getting ready for move past $100 soonWhen in doubt, zoom out. On the weekly (BONDUSD Uniswap), tightened bands with MACD throwing a buy signal. Has coiled up for months for a parabolic move on breakout. First target is $130, second target is $186. In Q1-Q2 of 2022 I can see this going past $500 mark, but for the short term, a $100-$200 move looks imminent. I added as soon as MACD turned bullish (at around $20), My first profit taking region will be between $130-$160.
BLong
by ValueCryptoTrades
3
10 Year Note Yield - 2%+ AheadPCE Data Friday rose to a 30 Year High for August 2021. Record levels at a year over year scale - with the FED remarking "Inflation remains frustratingly high". The Prior peak in 10 Year Note Yields provided the bottom for the ES (SPY, SPX, S&P500) @ 1.765. Yields have formed a Bull Flag in which Price should begin to Chop and complete for the Breakout of the pattern. Price objectives above are the prior highs @ 1.765 followed by an extension to 2.12 - 2.25%. This level should provide the lows for the Indices, they may well reach their Objective lows on the Break of 2% with the final push lower between 200 & 400SMAs. Patience will provide entry for the Final Long - 5/5 on the larger Daily TF. Bonds are simply pricing in - "Inflation" as we indicated would arrive in September/October. US Debt is seeing a broadening of concerns among Market Participants while Inflation begins to wreak havoc on Consumers. Supply shortages will continue for the foreseeable future, ultimately the shortages will create a large waterfall decline in 2022 of 50-70% as a complete loss of confidence in Arrangements concludes. Wall Street will seek entry for the next SELL as the 10Yr Note Yield pullback and ranges within the Bull Flag for Yields. * The Equity Markets remain a "Funding Mechanism" until they are not. 5/5 will be a large move for 2022 off the approaching Lows.
TVC:US10YShort
by HK_L61
8
Will the markets meltdown and hammer the bulls as yields rallyThe action has been very heavy this week and major indexes have been pressured lower. There is a lot for bulls to think about and many will be getting nervous. Will the FED come to the rescue again??....and will the Dip Buyers provide support again. In the video I take a look at my key markets and how I am approaching the current market action. I look at US 10-year bonds, the USD, SP500, DOW, Nasdaq and the ASX200.
CBOT:ZN1!
by TradeTheStructure