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Bonds

DXY (Long) - Temporary bottom for the dollar The dollar has fallen significantly on the back of falling interest rates and the bank crisis Currently sitting at a crucial support going back several years My thesis is a temporary bounce up to the 50SMA on the weekly Bullish engulfing candle on the daily suggesting a temporary reversal The yields on bond have also slightly reversed, hitting a 50SMA on the weekly; yields and the dollar collerate This strategy could be also used for any of the USD pairs of your choice, whichever one shows the more strength relative to the dollar It is a short-term trade with very good risk/reward I would use the support line as a stop-loss Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I am happy to help If you like my content, Please leave a like, comment or a donation , it motivates me to keep producing ideas, thank you :)
ICEUS:DX1!Long
by jurajholik
German Bund 10y going towards 3%I think the current buoyancy on long duration eu core gov bonds is deceptive. rates in europe are way to low due to current macro environment, inflation still high, prices of gas and oil sets for higher levels in coming months ECB still in hawkish mode. rsi is also on the rise above its mean. probably this development will require 2 steps for the yield to reach 3% level. first stop is 2.55% / 2.6% that is a strong resistance so, some form of consolidation, then a breakout to 3%
TVC:DE10Y
by johnconnor81
Silver SI - A Simple Trendline and Levels ScalpSilver's price action has been curious, as it started to drop suddenly right at the beginning of February. Lost 5% in a day, in fact. Gold took a little bit longer to move, and notably dumped on a much smaller magnitude. I have an open call from mid-January that gold is likely to correct, and it appears to be coming to fruition: Gold GC1 - Discard Greed, Enjoy the Tranquility of Rationality The thesis being that the Nasdaq and tech will moon... Nasdaq NQ QQQ - Reality Will Be a Tough Pill for Permabears And as it does, metals will dump, and once the stock market is exhausted then the pump cycle will rotate back into metals, and things will really go. All that being said, I believe that based on Silver's price action that it's dumped for the purpose of short trapping and liquidating longs and is about to make another move up before silver really starts to head down. A warning on China Since January 10, the Chinese Communist Party has claimed that there has been 0.00 new Wuhan Pneumonia/COVID-19 cases. This comes after news that the country was absolutely sacked by the pandemic after Xi Jinping threw away the disastrous COVID-Zero social credit lockdown blunder. The after effects were so significant that countries like South Korea were suddenly blanketed in difficult-to-explain smog , which may very well have come from mainland cremation furnaces being on full blast. What this tells you is that at any moment, any bullish impulse in markets-at-large can be interrupted by big time pandemic problems, up to and including the USSR-style fall of the CCP. So you have to be careful, and you have to be prepared. Mainstream media is not going to alert you that there's any problems with their darling erstwhile model of the world they want to create: the Chinese Communist Party. They'll leave you ignorant until the disaster is sprung on you like a cantilever and you'll be the one who suffers the regrets. If you have heavy long positions you should really hedge with 60+ day 10% OTM puts on the indexes/index ETFs. The call To understand silver, we have to look at the long term price action. Monthly We're dealing with a _very_ wide dealing range between $30 and $12~. '22's low of the year was only $17.50, and any very very bearish scenario below that could see as low as $13. I have reservations that we see $13. I think that in reality a bear impulse on silver might only go as low as $15, and not for very long. On weekly bars, the present situation is more obvious. Weekly We're dealing with a 10+% pullback with both a trendline and the $25 algorithmic/psychological operation figure that went untouched. Not only did $25 go untouched, but they set a double top there before the curiously-timed dump that gold did not follow. Thus, I believe that what the market makers have set up to do is to raid the $25.50 level, perhaps in the period around Tuesday's CPI and into the end of February, before silver retreats back towards $18. The iShares Silver Trust $SLV likewise set a double top, failing to raid the previous daily high by 2 cents. All the stars are aligning, so to speak, and makes a fine trade long over $25 in anticipation of a Lyft-style fakey trendline breakout: LYFT - Buy the Dip, Ride the Lift $22 --> $25.5 is close enough to 15% and in a time horizon that should manifest before February is out. This play will also knock out a ton of short sellers, while bringing in a lot of momentum traders who like to buy highs. The MMs may also use this to drag in the fools who think that the USD is done and that their bullion will reign supreme, despite us living in an era when every central bank wants to install its own digital currency and its own CCP-style social credit system. And thus, if this pump does manifest, you have to mind your greed. Over $25 is a sell and you want to see big manipulation to the downside, because when this Party is very close to being finished, $50+ silver is legitimately coming.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by LordWrymouth
3
US02Y about to break its 1W MA50 and start a mega stock rally?The US02Y has been trading on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the past 4 weeks, closing above it on all occasions. This is a key time for (primarily) the stock market as the last time the US02Y broke and closed below its 1W MA50 (week of December 31 2018), a massive rally on stocks (which on this chart are portrayed by the S&P500 and the black trend-line) was initiated. This was at the end of the U.S. - China trade war. The 1W RSI also shows that we are closer to that break-out than ever. Will a closing below the 1W MA50 give investors finally what they've been waiting for? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US02YShort
by TradingShot
% BONDS & INTEREST RATESThere's obviously lots of discussion about interest rates and where they are headed. Today, I'm going to look at long-term interest rates based on the well-known ETF: $TLT . Long-term interest rates are useful as a guide for most people who get a home-loan or longer-dated loans and is usually less prone to manipulation (by Central Banks) than short-term rates. Bond prices move inverse to interest rates. A rise in bond price means a lower interest rate and vice versa. 📈📉 Let's have a look at the long-term chart. I'm using the weekly timeframe to remove the day-to-day noise. You can see that since the January 2020 peak, bond prices have fallen. This was when interest rates bottomed and started rising. The bear market in bonds extended to Oct 2022. Subsequently, we have seen a rally in bonds and therefore a drop in interest rates. The multi-trillion dollar question is: Was Oct 2022 the BOTTOM i.e. has interest rates peaked? My technical view is that the bearish trend in bonds is still the dominant force. So far the bounce off the bottom does not yet signal a trend reversal. For this to be the case, I need to see TLT move higher beyond 114. IF price moves beyond 114, I would be more confident in stating that at a minimum there has been a Change in Behaviour. At that price level, the size of the upward move would be the largest since the Jan 2020 top. Larger than the upward bounce that began in Mar 2021 and ended in Nov 2021. A Change of Behaviour signals that market participants are starting to have differing opinions. It is this change in opinion that sow the seeds as the first step required for a trend change. If the bond price falters prior to reaching beyond 114, it is highly likely that we have not seen the bottom and higher interest rates should be expected. Clearly the next few weeks will be crucial in that determination. I will update my thoughts as the price evolves.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by mrstockyetoro
US10Y: Rising short term inside its Channel DownThe US10Y is trading inside a Channel Down on the 1D timeframe with the 1D technicals neutral (RSI = 46.172, MACD = -0.046, ADX = 31.478). With the 1D RSI coming off an accumulation that we've seen on the December and January bottoms, we expect the price to rise and approach at least the 0.618 Fibonacci. Our TP = 3.750. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YLong
by InvestingScope
7
TLT Volume Spikes UPDATED with ElliotwaveTLT Volume spikes prior to peak, when the fed first started raising rates. Now a volume peak right when the fed has said they will consider a pause for the next meeting. This could mean that the market thinks that rates are going to come down, and that therefore the value of long term bond assets will go up, as well as the value of banking stocks which are currently underwater. Previously, I mentioned that I though that the TLT would be going down, now I am updating this idea to include the notion that the fed may be done hiking for the short to long term, and that the TLT will be going up after experiencing large volume after a down trend.
NASDAQ:TLT
by International_Leeroy
ZB Shatters Resistance Level on 15-Minute ChartHello Traders, There is a big potential bearish opportunity in the ZB market! The 15-minute time frame just showed a break in a key support level, indicating a potential downtrend. With this technical signal, combined with current market conditions, it's possible that we may see a further decline in the ZB price. Keep an eye on this market and follow me for more updates on potential trading opportunities!" Tell me what you think Regards, The Mehdi
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by themehdi3
2