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$DXY $TNX $VIX stronger than previous recent runsGoing 2b away today meeting with partners. This post might just be the only one today TVC:DXY This is a pretty strong trend. TVC:TNX That last move was stronger than previous, look at the RSI. 10Yr #yield. TVC:VIX This move was also with more strength than previous moves. Conclusion: Our call to end BULL run was spot on. Should've went BEAR, it's what we thought but didn't want to rush. However, we did say that risk was towards the DOWN.
TVC:DXY
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
NIFTYBANK - "Bonds-Bears-Bats"Two pictures, the big one is intra-day and the PIP is Weekly. Intra-day is picture showing the bearish bat pattern, which moved to its logical down path. Triggered on break of the 0.886 number break. This morning BOJ leaves rates unchanged, no trouble in moving any of the financial markets. The bank that has not rocked any boat. SNB leaves, BOE pauses despite expectation of hike. Markets punish. The much-awaited news of Bond Inclusion is liquidity additive, not sure if they are in short term equity additive. On the aggregate, it should add to the underlying investment pool when the global interest rate differences skew to us. At present with USD Rates of Closer to 6% and our Yields minus the Currency Depreciation, will be the considerations to keep in mind. Timing is important, for today, they are mere headlines, market may treat them at a later date. One dead cat bounce? The big trouble to the Index unfolds 43800-44200 range and base if they are taken out. The large Caps stocks have given away their advantage, while the small caps are prone to profit taking. The Second half of 2023 will go to the nimble and humble traders. Move over Exuberance, Return to Sanity (worth reading the speech form RBI). For the day 44400-44900 would fancy a range. Week-end fear or hopes will drive the last one hour. Dont be influenced by overseas cues for a change.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by sreebhashyam
NIFTY: "Safe Heaven?" - Bond Inclusion. The word safe heaven has not been revisited in the financial markets in the last one year. While in all the bear assault, it used to be either the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, the Gold or the Bonds. For various reasons, Japanese Yen it at its low. Swiss Franc Post the pause, sold off piercing the 0.9000 mark. Gold is in its own journey, not compensating for the inflation adjusted returns. Less said better about the bonds. It is going to be third year in negative returns US 10 Y hits 4.50%. It is not about pause, the good news is greeting negatively, no recession means higher for longer. WSJ comments that it is time to forget low rates, prepare for higher rates as new norm. JP Morgan reports about inclusion of Indian Bonds IBX coming from June 2024, ideally should be a positive development. It would bring more inflows and that can be a positive factor for the currency. How much of that shift impacts the balance between equity and debt needs another drill down from the total allocation. Safe Heaven is the word that is doing rounds in the spat between Canada and India, any negatives, bull hate, bears embrace. Any gap down today and in-ability to close that gap is a huge bear signal. Additional factors to keep in mind, if one were to infer negative global cues impacting local. Dax is on the verge of break down, Korea and Dow are showing potential Head and Shoulder Pattern. No sin in taking profits off the table and either take light position or stay away. October favours the bears. Few places to hide means, few decisions needed to take. The Graph Retracements are plotted, from the base to the top 0.236 comes around 19400 and from recent base around the 19300 the 0.50% retracement is yesterday low and the 0.618% retracement is 19591. This ideally should hold. This time frame of the graph shows, evening star. The Advance block after posting the fourth one, now erodes half of the second bull candle. Week-end to aid some recovery? Bulls can hope only if we close today above the 19880. Else call writing at appropriate strike or some hedging is warranted. For the day 19630-19830 range is apt.
NSE:NIFTY
by sreebhashyam
T-BOND FUTURES, Massive Double-Bottom-Formation, BREAKOUT-Setup!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis of T-BOND FUTURES. Within recent times momentous changes emerged within the whole global financial markets as determining factors such as increased consumer demand expenditure and a decreased U.S. CPI have confirmed an important strengthening of the DXY, the U.S.-Dollar Currency Index moving along together with a major uptrend within the bonds. As the bonds market is not about to reverse within the recent times combined with the fact that the DXY stays within a continued uptrend these are factors that I considered within my recent analysis of T-BOND FUTURES as they offer an important view about what is likely to happen next. Major Double-Bottom Indications and Upcoming Price-Action-Determinations: When looking at my chart now T-BOND FUTURES are forming a major formation here, which is a substantial double-bottom formation with the first bottom already being completed and the second bottom reaching the major support zones with a high potential to bounce again. Such a double bottom formation indicates a continued demand and bullish expansion volatility once it has been completed within the schedule. Now as T-BOND FUTURES approach the major supports once again this means that the final completion of the whole double bottom is not far away especially once T-BOND FUTURES move forward with the final breakout above the upper boundaries to complete the massive double bottom formation with a breakout above the neckline with an upwind support determined by the 50-EMA and the 35-EMA. Determined Target Zones and Upcoming Perspectives Together With the Market View: The first confirmation is going to emerge once the breakout above the descending resistance line, in combination with the 50-EMA as well as the 35-EMA has shown up. The second confirmation and therefore the finalization of the whole double bottom formation is going to emerge once the final breakout above the upper boundary neckline of the major double bottom formation has shown up, this is going to complete the whole formation and is going to activate the final target zones as marked. Especially, with a further bullish momentum and uptrend preceding within the DXY and the bonds market such a major breakout possibility increases more and more. The first target zone will be within the 151'05 area, and the second target zone will be within the 172'19. A continued momentum within bonds and the DXY that is accelerating and increasing with the higher highs to be formed is going to determine a fast uptrend and reaching of the targets. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching my analysis of CHFAUD. Support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
CBOT:ZB1!
by VincePrince
2
[STUDY] Real Rates of BondsA study showing the real rate of returns on the various US Treasuries. Calculated by subtracting the YoY Inflation Rate (released monthly) from the Yield of the Bond. Real Fed Rate also shown for reference. Above 0 makes Bonds and Savings more attractive, aka more Demand for them. Price may increase and yields decrease, encouraging selling. Below 0 provides negative real return, making Bonds and Savings accounts unattractive, reducing demand. Price may decrease and yields increase to stoke demand.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by PHICAPITALINVESTMENTS
Bitcoin Has Absorbed $26,500 but What's This?Traders, In my last post I stated that BTC must absorb the price of 26,500 for the bulls to come back out and play again. It did. Now, we are running into the 50 day moving avg. which is acting as resistance and should give those of us seeking re-entry into longs a bit of time to make those entry decisions. However, I spotted something sus on the U.S. treasuries chart and it seems that nobody is really talking about this. Both the 10yr and the 2yr experienced a massive spike! What caused this? TBH, it is causing me some hesitation. Could this be pre-indicative of a credit event of some sort? Thoughts, links, data are appreciated in the comments below. Stew
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
MACRO MONDAY 12 - Positive MOVE IndexMACRO MONDAY 12 A Positive MOVE Index - TVC:MOVE The U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index – the “MOVE” is similar to the VIX volatility index that lets us know when volatility/uncertainty is high or low in the stock market by monitoring options contracts. Instead the MOVE measures how much investors expect bonds prices to fluctuate in the future. The bond market is particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates thus the MOVE also can also advise of expectations of future interest rate volatility. The MOVE index calculates the implied volatility of U.S. Treasury options using a weighted average of option prices on Treasury futures across multiple maturities (2, 5, 10, and 30 years). It reflects the level of volatility in U.S. Treasury futures. When the MOVE Index is high, it means investors are worried and expect big price swings, which can be a sign of uncertainty or instability in the financial markets. When it's low, it suggests that investors are more relaxed and don't anticipate significant price movements. In essence, the MOVE Index helps us gauge how jittery or calm the financial markets are by looking at the expectations of future price changes. The MOVE Index can help inform us of the following: 1. A potential flight to safety: When the MOVE or Bond Option Market Volatility increases this can be a signal of a flight to safety as people exit riskier assets positions such as stocks and reallocate funds to less riskier government backed assets such as Bonds. - The chart illustrates that increases in bond volatility negatively impact the S&P500. 2. Future Interest Rates: By capturing investors’ expectations of potential future fluctuations in interest rates, the index serves as a proxy for the bond market’s overall sentiment regarding future interest rate movements. - The MOVE can provide insights into the bond market’s expectations about future interest rate volatility, thus providing a heads up of upcoming change to future interest rates. The importance of the MOVE index lies in its ability to provide insights into the bond market’s expectations about future interest rate volatility and market volatility. The Chart With an understanding of the MOVE Index we can now dive into the chart and the implications we can draw from it; - Above the 85 level is above average bond market volatility and below the 85 level is below average bond market volatility. - Historically when the MOVE Index increases higher than the 126 level it has resulted in significant S&P500 price decline (red on chart). - Conversely when we are below the 126 level this has corresponded with positive price action for the S&P500 the majority of the time (green on the chart). This makes sense as a MOVE below the 126 level would suggest the bond market volatility is reaching down to the average 85 zone or under suggesting stable financial markets with moderate bond & interest rate volatility expected. Under such circumstances there is certainty and an element of calm in financial markets allowing for capital to flow more freely into riskier assets (instead of the safer bonds). - When the MOVE Index falls back into the 126 – 100 zone (orange ) this zone has been a zone of indecision with a potential increase and bounce back out of the zone higher or a fall lower. I would consider this a zone a wait to see what happens next zone. - At present we appear falling into 100 – 85 level (green zone). Should we fall below the 85 level this could be considered a confirmation signal of stability returning to the bond market which could lead to a flow of capital to riskier assets such as those in the S&P500. In the period from 2007 – 2009 during the Great Financial Crisis bond volatility remained elevated above the 126 level for approx. 23 months (in the red zone on the chart) and this consisted of three peaks in bond volatility that reached a high of 265 on the MOVE Index. At present we have had 16 months of increased bond volatility reaching in and out of the 126 red zone. Similar to 2007 – 2009 period we have had three peaks in bond volatility however we only reached a high of 173 (in 2007-2009 it was a high of 265). We are currently moving back down towards the 85 level and this appears to be positive for markets however I would remain cautious until we make a definitive move below the 85 level. We are aware that bond volatility can remain elevated for up to 23 months and we have only been elevated for 16 months and did not reach the highs of 265 like in the 2007 – 2009 period. The chart does not have to play out the same, reach the same levels or follow a similar time pattern as the 2007 – 2009 period however we are aware that it can move higher and that it can remain elevated for longer therefore we can remain cautious until the volatility moves under the 85 level (below the historical average). Its hard to ignore that this chart looks bullish for the market as we move down into the green zone and into lower bond market volatility. This creates a stark argument to some of the charts I shared in previous weeks. I would be more comfortable in confirming the bull thesis from this “one” chart should we move below the average 85 level. Furthermore, it is one chart and for me it would not be enough to rely on alone. I was listening to market guru Raoul Pal this morning and he made an compelling argument to suggest that we are already in the deep trough of a recession and might be about to start climbing out of it. It’s worth considering as recessions are typically declared up to 8 months after they have started and with many countries having already established 2 quarters of negative GDP, we certainly could be in the trough. If there is one chart that would back up Raoul Pals thesis, it is the MOVE Index which is suggesting a move to lower than average bond volatility, suggesting we are potentially beginning to enter a period of stability and certainty which would allow for capital to feel more comfortable flowing towards riskier assets. This chart will be a great chart to keep an eye on for those with a positive or negative market lens. You can press play on the chart on trading view and it will update and tell you if we are moving into low risk levels or high risk levels, you also have boundaries for the extremes. This chart and the others I have completed on Macro Mondays are all designed so that you can revisit them at any point and press play and see if we are breaking new into higher or lower risk territory. I hope they all help towards your investing and trading frameworks. PUKA
TVC:MOVE
by PukaCharts
2
Dark times are coming... - TVC:US10Y is showing significant strength on all major timeframes. - The EMA's on the monthly timeframe broke bullish after 12,000 days (Last seen 1962). - If the US10YR breaks the 50% price retracement, we could see between 7.25% - 15%. (Last seen 1981) The markets are in a scary place right now. This bear market may be extended due to many factors were dealing with in 2023 (War, Virus, Inflation, Rising Interest Rates, Upcoming election, etc...). Maybe a crash is what's needed to reset all of this chaos?
TVC:US10YShort
by iLeverageBTC
DOLLAR against all ODDSWe have DXY pegged for Bullish continuation. I believe DXY is carrying a HTF Momentum to the upside. It has made an incredible recovery since its Ranges Low at $99.578 And it does not seem to be losing steam. I see DXY making some sort of retracement with a possible bounce around $104.561, to continue its path with a series of UP closing candles all the way up to $104.790 and the possible yet far $104.480. Why is this important? DXY upwards continuation will affect all assets including forex and equities. For example: I determined NASDAQ Bearish inclinations based on the Dollars path. See: This is not only going to translate to NASDAQ but as said above it will affect all. There will be more ideas linked to this particular movement. Stay tuned!
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by JP_Tru
$TX 10Yr has done well while short term yields stagnant, oh ohIt's important to keep and eye on the 10 & 2Yr yields. The inverted #yield curve has huge prediction probability. BUT The strongest aspect of this is when it normalizes. We're not far from that as the10yr has been pumping and the shorter time frames have been pretty stagnant. Now, there's 2 ways this happens. Soft landing, economy slowly recovers OR Lower rates, usually = consequences Guess which is the historical? TVC:TNX
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$TNX, 2Yr Yield, $DXY, $VIX analysisThe 10Yr - TVC:TNX and the 2Yr #yield have held pretty steady the last few days. Won't be shocked if it doesn't do much until the DJ:DJI & TVC:NDQ , "coincidentally", break out of the patterns we've spoken about. TVC:DXY losing a lil bit of steam. Is it topping again? The only odd man out is the $VIX. It's closer to the lower end of range. IMO this is just something to look at and not of much use until it is. September will go out with a BANG!!! One way or another!
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
This chart pattern suggests yields are going higherUS10Y remains in an established uptrend on the daily chart, and Friday's bullish engulfing candle suggests a swing low has formed and more gains are to follow. But having looked back at price action since the April low, we note that prices are yet to break the low of a bullish engulfing candle if it has formed after a pullback or period of consolidation. Granted, there are one or two of those engulfing candles that do not fit the exact description (as an open or close is out be a few ticks, meaning it has not truly engulfed). But we've relaxed the rules to note bullish candles that show clear range expansion over the prior candle. And if that pattern persists, it looks like the 10-year yield (and likely yields across the curve) are at least going to make an attempt to retest or break their cycle highs.
TVC:US10YLong
by CityIndex
US10Y Rejection not confirmed yet. Bullish unless this breaks.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is having a 2-week rejection since the August 22 High that was priced marginally above the 4.336 Resistance. However both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as well as the Higher Lows trend-line that moves just below it, remain intact, maintaining the long-term uptrend. Today is the ideal spot for a new buy entry, targeting 4.365 (August 22 High). We are only willing to turn short after the price breaks below the Higher Lows trend-line and closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50. In that case, we will sell and target 3.810 (Fibonacci 0.5 level). Notice also the 1D RSI which just hit its own Higher Lows trend-line that is holding since March 15. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
7
Short-Term Outlook: ZN Bonds will decline to 109.16$.I. Bearish Momentum: The ZN bonds market has recently displayed signs of bearish momentum, with several key indicators pointing towards a potential downturn. One of the most notable factors contributing to this sentiment is the presence of strong seller volume, indicating that there is significant downward pressure on bond prices. II. Seller Dominance: Seller dominance can be a powerful indicator of market sentiment. When sellers outnumber buyers, it often leads to downward price movements. In the case of ZN bonds, the sellers have been in control, suggesting that the short-term bias leans towards a bearish outlook. III. Price Target: 109.16: Based on the current market conditions and the prevalence of seller dominance, it is reasonable to anticipate a decline in ZN bond prices. Our short-term price target is set at 109.16, which reflects the potential support level where prices may find temporary stabilization. IV. Intraday Resistance: 110.31: In addition to the seller dominance, there is a notable intraday resistance level at 110.31. This resistance level acts as an obstacle to any upward price movement and can further support the notion of a downward price trend. Traders should pay close attention to this level as it may provide an opportunity to enter short positions. In conclusion, the ZN bonds market appears poised for a short-term decline to the 109.16 price area, supported by seller dominance and the presence of an intraday resistance level at 110.31. As a bonds trader, it's vital to remain vigilant and adaptable to changing market conditions while implementing effective risk management strategies. The financial markets are dynamic, and staying informed is essential to making well-informed trading decisions.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by Gassem_futures
3x Inverse TLT ETF: Breaking Out of Descending Broadening WedgeThe Inverse ETF for the 20-Year US Government Bond is currently breaking out of a Descending Broadening Wedge and is looking to go much higher perhaps between the 61.8% and 78.6% retraces which would be about a 500-1,400% percentage gain which also means that longer end bond yields are going much higher. I previously said I would repost this chart after the split so that the numbers would be accurate, and now that split has happened. I have my eyes on the $36 to hold and am currently looking to get some calls for that strike price expiring next year. It's worth noting the Partial-Decline we got before breaking out of the Broadening wedge, which makes it more likely to play out.
AMEX:TMVLong
by RizeSenpai
2