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GBP/USD dips after inflation jumps, BoE up nextThe British pound has edged lower on Wednesday. GBP is trading at 1.2724 in Europe, down 0.3%. GBP/USD spiked after today's inflation release but in currently in negative territory. The UK released the May inflation report today, and the results were a major disappointment, to put it mildly. With inflation falling for two straight months, there were hopes that the Bank of England's rate policy was slowly working and the downtrend would continue. The monthly readings showed that headline and core CPI eased, but the annualized readings were worse than expected. Headline CPI remained at 8.7%, above the consensus of 8.4%. Core CPI rose from 6.8% to 7.1%, above the consensus of 6.8%, the highest level since March 1992. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, is considered more important, and the 0.3% gain is a huge disappointment for the BoE. The Bank of England won't have much time to mull over the inflation figures, as it announces its rate decision on Thursday. There's little doubt that the BoE will have to raise rates for a 13th consecutive time, and today's inflation numbers mean there is a strong possibility of an oversize 0.50% increase. The BoE finds itself between a rock and a hard place, as it struggles to contain inflation without causing a recession. The resilient labor market has complicated the BoE's attempts to cool the economy, and the markets are projecting that the Bank Rate, currently at 4.5%, won't peak until 6%. High inflation has already caused a cost-of-living crisis, and more rate hikes will only exacerbate the pain. Fed Chair Powell begins two days of testimony before Congress on Wednesday. Lawmakers are expected to grill Powell about the Fed's rate policy. The Fed paused at this month's meeting but is expected to raise rates at the July meeting. Powell has said that he can pull off a soft landing that will avoid a recession and jump in unemployment, but he'll likely have to answer pointed questions from lawmakers who are concerned that higher rates will damage the economy. 1.2719 remains under pressure in support. Next, there is support at 1.2645 There is resistance at 1.2848 and 1.2950
by OANDA
GBP/USD lower ahead of UK inflationThe British pound is lower on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2739, down 0.41%. The UK releases the May inflation report on Wednesday and BoE policy makers will be hoping that inflation continues to trend lower. Inflation dropped in April to 8.7%, decelerating for a second straight month. The consensus stands at 8.4%, and the good news is that those awful readings above 10% appear to be over. On a monthly basis, inflation is expected to fall to 0.5% in May, down from 1.2% in April. Inflation appears to have peaked and is heading lower, but nobody at the Bank of England is smiling. The UK is expected to have one of the highest inflation rates in the G-20 this year at 6.9% and the BoE's 2% target is miles away. Finance Minister Sunak has set a goal of lowering inflation to 5% by the end of the year, which seems feasible if inflation continues to downtrend in the coming months. The BoE will be in the spotlight on Thursday when it makes its rate announcement. The markets have priced in a 25-basis point hike at 70%, with a 30% chance of an oversize 50-bp increase. If inflation falls as expected to 8.4% or lower, the MPC should be able to proceed with the 25-bp hike, although central banks have a tendency of surprising the money markets. In the US, it's an unusually light data calendar this week. There are no tier-1 releases on Tuesday, and the markets are looking ahead to Wednesday, with Jerome Powell testifying before the House Financial Services Committee. Powell will have to clarify to lawmakers the Fed's interest rate path, as the Fed paused last week after ten straight hikes but expects to renew hiking in July. 1.2719 is under pressure in support. Next, there is support at 1.2589 There is resistance at 1.2848 and 1.2950
by OANDA
GBP/USD dips after disappointing UK inflationGBP/USD is down for a third straight day, trading at 1.2374, down 0.33%. Earlier, GBP/USD touched a low of 1.2369, its lowest level since April 18th. The FOMC releases the minutes of the May meeting later today. The closely-watched UK inflation report for April was a disappointment. There was some good news as headline inflation fell to 8.7%, down sharply from 10.1%. Hopefully, this is the end, finally, of inflation in double-digit territory. Still, the reading was above the estimate of 8.2%. There was nothing positive about core CPI, which is the more important gauge of inflation. The core rate jumped from 6.2% to 6.8%. Forecasters had expected core CPI to remain at 6.2% and the unexpected rise is clearly a big step backward for the Bank of England in its tenacious battle with inflation. Governor Bailey is speaking at two public engagements today, and we can expect him to make mention of the inflation report. The BoE has raised rates by 1% this year, bringing the cash rate to 5.25%, but inflation has proven to be persistent. The IMF has projected that UK inflation would fall to around 5% by the end of the year and drop to the 2% target by the middle of 2025. It will be a bumpy road to restore low inflation, and the BoE will probably have to raise rates again in June, unless core inflation surprises dramatically on the downside. US lawmakers continue to fight over the debt ceiling, as US Treasury Secretary Yellen has warned that the ceiling could be reached on June 1st, which doesn't leave a lot of time for an agreement. Republicans have said Yellen's date isn't accurate, but even if the deadline is a week or two later, Congress seems to be playing with fire to score political points. Investors are worried, and stock markets are down while safe-havens such as gold and the US dollar are higher. We've seen this movie before, and Congress has always reached a deal before the deadline. Still, we can expect risk sentiment to slide and the US dollar to gain ground the longer we go without a deal. GBP/USD tested support at 1.2375 in the European session. Below, there is support at 1.2307 1.2461 and 1.2529 are the next resistance levels
by OANDA
GBP/USD drifting lower ahead of UK inflationGBP/USD is trading quietly at 1.2423, down 0.11% on the day. UK inflation has been a thorn in the side of the Bank of England for months and is still above 10%. The UK releases the April inflation report on Wednesday and relief may finally have arrived. Headline CPI is expected to fall from 10.1% all the way to 8.3% y/y. That would be welcome news, but core CPI, which is a better gauge of inflation trends, is projected to remain unchanged at 6.2% y/y. Bank of England Governor Bailey reiterated today in testimony before the Treasury Select Committee that inflation has turned the corner, and we'll know if he's correct on Wednesday. Even if inflation surprises to the downside, it will be miles higher than the 2% target which Bailey has pledged to reach. That means that more rate hikes are likely until both headline and core inflation show rapid declines. Bailey received some good news from the International Monetary Fund, which revised upwards its growth forecast for 2023 from -0.3% to +0.4%. This means that the UK economy, while still struggling, will avoid a recession. The IMF projected that UK inflation would fall to around 5% by the end of the year and drop to the 2% target by the middle of 2025. The US dollar is higher against most of the majors today, as investors remain concerned about the US debt ceiling standoff. The Democrats and Republicans continue to negotiate, with a June 1st deadline just a week away. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury notes has risen to 3.75%, its highest level since March. This has given a boost to the US dollar and yields could continue to push higher the closer we get to the deadline without a deal. The United States government has never defaulted on its debt, and a deal is likely to be hammered out before the deadline. There is support at 1.2307 and 1.2221 1.2375 and 1.2461 are the next resistance levels
by OANDA
GBP/USD flat as UK GDP a mixed bagGBP/USD is trading at 1.2517 in Europe, almost unchanged. In the UK, GDP declined by 0.3% in March m/m, below the 0.1% estimate and the February reading of 0.0%. Still, the economy managed to gain 0.1% in the first quarter, unchanged from Q4 2022 and matching the estimate. There was no surprise as the Bank of England raised rates by 25 basis points, bringing the cash rate to 4.50%, its highest since 2008. This marked the twelfth consecutive hike in the current rate-tightening cycle, underscoring the BoE's pledge to curb hot inflation. Governor Bailey said after the rate announcement that Bank would "stay the course to make sure that inflation falls all the way back to the 2% target". Nobody is expecting that the road to 2% will be easy, with inflation currently in double digits. The BoE remains optimistic that inflation will fall rapidly during the year and will fall to 5% by the end of the year. In February, the BOE predicted 4% inflation by the end of the year. This seems like a tall order but is certainly possible if the rate hikes make themselves felt and cool the economy. There have been constant concerns that the BoE's aggressive rate policy would lead to a recession, and six months ago, the BoE had projected a recession. Bailey reversed course yesterday, saying that the drop in energy prices and stronger economic growth meant that GDP would expand by a weak 0.25% in 2023, versus the 0.5% contraction in the previous forecast. In the US, the economy is showing signs of cooling and high interest rates are expected to dampen the robust labour market. Unemployment claims surprised on the upside on Thursday, rising from 245,000 to 264,000, well above the estimate of 242,000. This is just one weekly report, but it's sure to raise speculation that the labour market is showing cracks. The US wraps up the week with UoM Consumer Confidence, which is pointing to a rather sour US consumer. The indicator fell to 63.5 in April and is expected to ease to 63.0 in May. Weak consumer confidence can translate into a decrease in consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. GBP/USD is putting pressure on support at 1.2495. The next support level is 1.2366 1.2573 and 1.2676 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
GBP/USD -11/5/2023-• Despite hawkish message delivered by the BOE today, recent USD strength is putting pressure on the pound and all the majors • We have a couple of Dojis in the recent past sessions which showed a slowing bullish momentum followed by a big bearish candlestick today • Bears are testing the 20 SMA which has been supporting the prices for a while • While there is a weakness prevailing, longer term trend is still bullish as long as the Pound is trading above the ascending trend line • One critical support level is very important for the bulls to defend which is in the mid 1.24s (1.2450-1.2460) which is the previous December 2022 - January 2023 resistance and the trend line support • Bears will do their best to secure several daily closes below the 20 SMA and the supporting trend line • From a risk reward perspective, bulls might wait for a re-test of the trend line before getting in the market again Traders, if you like this idea please comment and like ✅ Here to answer all your questions, Good luck
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
The wedge pattern on cable! Bears waking up? So far this year, Cable has made significant progress. However, the fifth wave’s potential for further growth appears limited due to its final leg within a higher degree impulse, as evident on the daily chart. Interestingly, there have been instances of sluggish price movement and overlaps around the 1.23 area. This prompts us to question whether this could be the fifth wave nearing resistance at 1.26/1.27, potentially forming an ending diagonal (wedge) pattern. These patterns often result in sharp reversals, so caution is advised for bullish traders, particularly considering the absence of buyers even on a “hawkish BoE” day. It is possible that speculators are losing hope for the Bank of England’s ability to curb inflation.
by ew-forecast
1
GBPUSD Trading Near 12 Month HighHi Traders! We are trading near May 23rd 2022's high of around 1.26632, hence why we have been struggling to get any momentum. The market is currently undecided as to where to go from here. Due to the market being at the highest point for almost 12 months, there is bound to be some resistance at this level. We also had an inverse head & shoulders pattern forming over this time, so this could also be a sign of a reversal to the very long term bearish trend. Fundamental news will also have a key part to play as to where we go from here with the BoE Interest Rate Decision and BoE MPC Meeting Minutes coming out later today. Please do not forget to like, comment and follow. We appreciate your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
GBP/USD - Pound rebounds as wage growth remains high, CPI expectThe UK employment report for March was a mixed bag. The number of unemployed persons jumped by 28,200, after a decline of 18,000 in February and higher than the estimate of -11,800. The unemployment rate nudged higher from 3.7% to 3.8%. These numbers, which point to a slight weakening in the labour market, were overshadowed by a jump in wage growth. Average earnings excluding bonuses hit 6.6% y/y in the three months through February, versus the revised upwards January read of 6.6% and the estimate of 6.2%. Wage growth remains stubbornly high, despite the Bank of England's steep tightening and that has to be a key concern for Bailey & Company. As wages continue to accelerate, the concern of a wages/price spiral remains very real and supports another rate hike at the May meeting. Inflation rose in February to 10.4%, up from 10.1%, and Wednesday's inflation report will be a crucial report card for the BoE. If inflation doesn't fall below 10% (the forecast stands at 9.8%), it's hard to see how the BoE can ease up on its relentless rate hikes. The wage growth numbers were enough for Goldman Sachs to upwardly revise its rate expectations for May from a hold to a 25 basis-point hike. The UK's uncertain economic landscape has become cloudier as hundreds of thousands of public sector workers are striking or planning to strike due to wage concerns. Workers have seen their real income fall as inflation has been at double-digit levels. The government has called for wage restraint in its battle to curb inflation, but strikers won't be in the mood to compromise as long as wages fail to keep pace with inflation. GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.2436 earlier in the day. The next resistance line is 1.2526 There is support at 1.2325 and 1.2235
by OANDA
GBP/USD - Will BoE's Bailey shake up the British pound?The British pound is trading quietly on Monday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 122.49, up 0.15%. The pound has looked sharp of late, and last it touched a high of 1.2343, its highest level since late January. In the UK, there are no tier-1 releases this week, but that doesn't mean it will be a quiet week for the pound. Investors will be listening closely as BoE Governor Bailey speaks at public engagements today and on Tuesday. The latter should be especially interesting, as Bailey will testify before the Treasury Select Committee about the Silicon Valley collapse. Bailey to testify on SVB collapse Bailey has sounded surprisingly optimistic, given that inflation remains in double digits despite the BoE raising rates 11 consecutive times. After the 25-bp rate hike earlier this month, Bailey said that he expected inflation to fall "quite rapidly" in the next few months. On Friday, Bailey said that the prospects for growth were better and there was a "pretty strong likelihood" that the country would avoid a recession this year. I'm not at all sure that lawmakers share the Governor's optimism, and they will likely grill Bailey on the Bank's rate policy, which has failed to reign in high inflation. Sticky inflation is not the only headache that Bailey needs to deal with. The banking crisis has caused stress in the financial markets, and investors remain concerned about the stability of the banking sector. Authorities in Switzerland and the US have acted quickly and decisively, which has helped calm down the markets. President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen have said that the banking system is safe, and on Friday, the Financial Stability Oversight Council, a group of financial regulators, said that the US banking system remains "sound and resilient". The stresses on the banking system are being closely watched by central banks, which are fearful of the contagion spreading as well as a credit crunch, which could slow economic growth. ECB President Lagarde said last week that the bank crisis could help lower inflation, and UK lawmakers might ask Bailey if the crisis could dampen inflation in the UK. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2248. The next resistance line is 1.2341 There is support at 1.2152 and 1.2071
by OANDA
GBP/USD - Pound slips as PMIs dip, BoE hikes againThe British pound is down considerably on Friday and the US dollar has posted gains against the major currencies. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 122.13, down 0.60%. UK releases are a mixed bag on Friday. Business activity and manufacturing weakened in March. The Services PMI eased to 52.8, down from 53.5 in February and shy of the estimate of 53.0 points. Manufacturing fell to 48.0, versus 49.3 in February and an estimate of 52.8 points. Manufacturing has declined for eight straight months, with readings below the 50.0 level which separates contraction from expansion. Business activity continues to show modest expansion and is the driver behind economic growth in the UK. Given the weak economic landscape, it's no surprise that consumer confidence remains mired in negative territory. Double-digit inflation and high interest rates have sapped consumer optimism. In March, GfK Consumer Confidence came in at -36, as expected and a bit higher than the previous reading of -38 points. With consumers may in a sour mood, a strong retail sales report for February was that much more surprising, with a gain of 1.2%. This beat the upwardly revised January gain of 0.9% and crushed the estimate of 0.2%. Core retail sales jumped 1.5%, versus 0.9% in January, which was upwardly revised, and beat the estimate of 0.1%. As expected the Bank of England raised rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. This marked an 11th straight hike, although the 25-bp move was the smallest increase since June. Is the BoE done with tightening? This week's disappointing acceleration in inflation has increased the odds of at least one more hike, although BoE Governor Bailey was non-committal when asked about future hikes. Like the ECB, the BoE didn't flinch from delivering an expected rate hike despite the banking crisis and I wouldn't be surprised if more hikes are in store unless inflation shows clear signs of easing. There is resistance at 1.2324, followed by 1.2445 GBP/USD has support at 1.2253 and 1.2132
by OANDA
GBP/USD Briefly Rises Above 1.2300 After BoE Hike The GBP/USD pair advanced for a second day in a row on Thursday, following the Bank of England's (BoE) decision to raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%. The BoE didn't rule out further hikes, which helped underpin the pound.However, the deterioration in the market sentiment during the New York session lifted the greenback and weighed on the pair, which retraced part of its intraday gains. At the time of writing, the Cable trades at the 1.2290 zone, up 0.21% from its opening price, having printed a three-week high of 1.2343 after the BoE announcement. The Federal Reserve also delivered a 25 bps rate increase on Wednesday. Powell's comments and the dot plot led investors to anticipate just one more 25 bps hike in 2023, which put the dollar on the defensive. The Bank of England, like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB), has prioritized the fight against inflation, citing the robustness and resilience of the U.K. banking system. Furthermore, the BoE's economic forecast anticipates a significant drop in inflation in Q2 2023, with a slight increase in economic activity over the same period. On Wednesday, the U.K.'s Office for National Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had risen to 10.4% on a yearly basis in February, up from 10.1% in January and surpassing market expectations of 9.8%. The core CPI also increased from 5.8% to 6.2% over the same period, exceeding consensus estimates. From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD retains a bullish bias on the daily chart, with indicators in positive territory and the pair above its main moving averages. On the upside, short-term resistances are seen at the 1.2300 psychological level, followed by March 23 high at 1.2343 and then the 1.2400 zone. On the other hand, support levels could be found at 1.2200, the weekly lows at around 1.2170 and the 1.2100 mark.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
GBP/USD - Pound steady, inflation expectations easeThe British pound is in positive territory on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2277, up 0.50%. For Bank of England policy makers, the "how not to start the day" manual likely included inflation climbing higher. That was the bad news earlier today, as UK headline CPI rose to 10.4% in February, reversing the deceleration trend in recent months. The reading was up from 10.1% in January and above the consensus estimate of 9.8%. The core rate climbed to 6.2% in February, up from 5.8% prior which was also the estimate. The usual suspects were at play, with the food and energy prices driving the increase in inflation. The inflation print will complicate matters for the BoE, which has hiked rates to 4.0% in a bid to contain inflation. Higher inflation will require further rate hikes, but the fallout from the banking crisis, which has roiled the financial markets, means that central banks will have to tread carefully with rate moves. The BoE is almost certain to deliver a 25-bp hike at the policy meeting on Thursday. In the US, the response to the banking crisis has been swift and decisive, which has helped soothe market jitters after last week's panic. Over the weekend, the Federal Reserve and five other major central banks announced coordinated action to bolster liquidity, and Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the bank system was stabilizing and she would intervene if necessary in order to protect depositors of small banks. The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision later today and after massive shifts in market pricing lately, a 25-bp increase is almost a certainty. What will be of interest to investors is whether the Fed follows the stance of the ECB and avoid any direct signals about future rate moves. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2253. The next resistance line is 1.2324 There is support at 1.2132 and 1.2061
by OANDA
GBPUSD Outlook 22 March 2023Yesterday, the GBPUSD traded up to approach the 1.23 price area, a high last reached on 15th February. However, as the move was quickly reversed as the GBPUSD retraced to retest the 1.22 price level again. As the price failed to break below the support level and maintains above the upward trendline, the GBPUSD is likely to continue with its upward momentum. UK CPI data is due to be released today and is expected to signal a slowdown in inflation growth. While this might provide some short term price volatility, which could see the GBPUSD trade slightly lower, the BoE interest rate decision is still due tomorrow. The BoE is expected to increase rates by 25bps as it continues to target bringing inflation down to the 2% target level. Look for the GBPUSD to continue trading higher, to retest the 1.23 round number high, with the major key resistance level at 1.24.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
GBPUSD Outlook 20th March 2023The GBPUSD has been trading steadily higher from the 1.20 support area to find the key resistance level of 1.22 With further weakness anticipated for the DXY, the GBPUSD is likely to continue trading higher, especially if the price breaks out beyond the resistance level. Another reason that could see the GBPUSD trade higher is the market anticipation that the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to increase interest rates by another 25bps at the upcoming meeting. If the price breaks above 1.22, the next key resistance level is at 1.24, with a brief hesitation level at 1.2270.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
GBP - Weekly/Daily close will be key! GBP - Weekly/Daily close will be key! GBPUSD - At a very key resistance, we have NFP today that will shift the market. We did have GDP m/m Bullish 0.3 Higher than expected. I think when it comes to GBP there are very bearish views when it comes to there fundamentals and there rate hikes but I don't think the situation as bad as it's considered. What does this mean and how can we trade this opportunity? Well, we can first wait for daily close and see how we close and perhaps wait for pull back and get in long taking us back towards key resistance areas of 1.21 half areas and target areas 1.23. However, if we are fail to close above we are back within the range until further clarification. Don't forget to check minor pairs such as EURGBP & GBPAUD as commodity FX is lagging there are plenty of trading opportunities, including GB10Y W set up. Now we do have NFP, if that beats expectation we could get pull back in GBP. However, if it comes out lower than expected NFP I expect dxy to decline and majors to rise. And see how price reacts if it beats expectations and by how much and vice versa - that's what is very key! Now regarding GBP technical view: High: 1.21560 Low: 1.18420 Pattern: Wedge/Channel A break above the highs and 200/50 EMA I expect further bullish momentum and target area of 1.23 areas. If we are to break below of 1.18 handle then 1.15 is still on the table. However, at this current moment of time we are within the ranges and we have to respect that, in addition you could even go to lower time frame of 4hr and get better price! Trade safe and have a great weekend! Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
GBPUSD - Now we wait... GBPUSD - Now we wait... GBPUSD within the ranges Highs: 1.22480 Lows: 1.18530 Keep in mind: we had BOE'S BAILEY: CAUTION AGAINST SAYING WE'RE DONE ON RATES & Let's not forget we aren't done with 'Brexit' as that tension tightens as per usual we saw EURGBP escalate higher whilst GBP we are within these ranges until prices give us clear direction. Technical view - It's very clear levels when it comes to price and we could even say there's pattern formed Highs: 1.22480 Lows: 1.18530 A break of highs, take us back to 1.24000 areas A break of lows, take us back to 1.17000 areas Don't forget to add alerts & stick to your own trade plan. Have a great day ahead, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
GBP/USD jumps on N. Ireland hopesThe British pound has posted sharp gains on Monday, after falling below the symbolic 1.20 level on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2026, up 0.72%. In the UK, the economic calendar is unusually quiet this week, with no tier-1 releases. There will be a host of BoE members speaking, including BoE member Broadbent today and Governor Bailey and Chief Economist Pill later in the week. The BoE is widely expected to raise rates by 0.25% at the March 23 meeting, which would bring the cash rate to 4.25%. The UK economy appeared to be well on its way toward a recession, and the BoE signalled at the February meeting that it was considering easing up on the pace of rate hikes due to the slowing economy. The central bank may have to reconsider its policy after strong economic data was released last week. Services PMI climbed back into expansion territory in January, rising from 48.7 to 53.3. As well, GfK consumer confidence for February improved to -38, up from -43 a year prior. Although consumer confidence remains deep in negative territory, this was the strongest release since April 2022. The improvement in economic activity has caused the markets to fully price in 0.25% hikes in March and May, with a 33% likelihood of the cash rate rising to 5% in August. The UK left the EU in January 2020, but the vexing problem of the Northern Ireland border has continued to create friction between London and Brussels. There are hopes that the sides will announce as early as today that progress has been made, with speculation that a deal is very close to being reached. An agreement would be a massive victory for UK Prime Minister Sunak, who has been dealing with a lackluster economy and public worker strikes. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2006. The next resistance line is 1.2082 1.1958 and 1.1864 are providing support
by OANDA
GBPUSD - a dovish BoE offers reasons to be short the GBP The BoE may have one more hike in them, but its 25bp at best with the market pricing terminal BoE rates at 4.27% by June – let’s see the next UK CPI print on 23 March and that could possibly seal the deal on a pause in the hiking cycle - the language from gov Bailey suggests a higher conviction of this playing out. UK gilts have found big buyers (10yr was -30bp, 2s -24bp) and GBPUSD 1-month implied volatility has dropped to 9.42% and eyes the 15 Dec lows of 8.52%. The inability of GBPUSD to break 1.2440 has cost the GBP bulls, and the new language from the BoE has seen price accelerate to the downside, with the range lows of 1.2263 giving way. With price now eyeing a daily close below the 5-day EMA, I am either flat or short on this pair, but longs are not for now. Trading the USD comes with an additional risk in the session ahead, as you’re effectively fighting positioning ahead of the upcoming US non-farm payrolls (00:30 AEDT) – the consensus here is for 190k jobs to have been created in Jan, with the U/E eyed at 3.6%, and average hourly earnings (AHE) at 4.3% – it’s the AHE variable that I think moves the USD and NAS100 most intently, as it did last month – the market is positioned for a softer wages print, so the pain trade comes on a print above 4.5%. Taking the USD out of the equation temporarily we see that GBPAUD has broken down and prints further lower lows – a tough cross to act on as we have the RBA meeting next week (Tuesday 14:30 AEDT), and that could inject some uncertainty to hold exposures - but the flow is certainly favouring shorts – GBPJPY is also one I favour lower, with important support kicking in around the 156.0 levels.
Short
by Pepperstone
1
GBP/USD sliding after dovish BoE hikeThe British pound has posted sharp losses on Thursday and continues to lose ground in the North American session. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2251, down 0.98%. The major central banks remain the focus of the market's attention. The Bank of England raised rates by 50 basis points, just one day after the Federal Reserve's 25-bp hike. This marked a second straight increase of 50 bp, bringing the cash rate to 4%. As with the Fed decision, the hike was expected, but investors found plenty to cheer about, resulting in the pound reversing course and losing ground. Governor Bailey said in a follow-up news conference that inflation pressures remained and inflation risks were skewed to the upside. Still, investors found plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Bailey said that inflation had turned a corner and noted that members had removed the word "forcefully" from its forward guidance statement. The BoE is now projecting that inflation will fall to around 4% by the end of the year and that the recession will be shallower than it had anticipated. The less pessimistic outlook for inflation and the economy sent risk appetite higher and pushed the pound lower. The markets were in a good mood after the decision, but there are plenty of problems ahead - inflation is above 10% and some half a million workers went on strike on Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points as was widely expected. The Fed noted that inflation has eased but reminded listeners that it remained much higher than the 2% target. Jerome Powell signaled that more rate hikes are coming and said he did not expect to cut rates this year. This was essentially a repeat of the hawkish message we've heard before, but the markets chose to focus on Powell saying that the disinflation process had started and that he expected another couple of rate hikes before winding up the current rate-hike cycle. This sent the US dollar broadly lower on Wednesday. Besides inflation, the Fed is focused on employment data, which will make Friday's nonfarm employment report a key factor in future rate policy. In December, nonfarm payrolls fell from 256,000 to 223,000 and the downturn is expected to continue, with an estimate of 190,000 for January. This release could result in further volatility in the currency markets on Friday. .
by OANDA