Get started

BOE

GBPAUD: In depth time at mode analysisI spent a long time analyzing this pair, contrasting views with my colleague Nick Coulby, who specializes in Elliott Wave analysis, and working on my own time at mode analysis of this pair, as well as adding the result of insightful discussions held at Tim West's 'Key Hidden Levels' chatroom, regarding this topping pattern, as well as the patterns in the gold chart, and it's Elliott Wave analysis. All this rich information and length analytical process leads me to conclude the following: The uptrend isn't done, and while we see gold rallying, this pair will correct down offering a potentially interesting short setup, before lending us a perfect position trade on the long side if it meets my expectations. Ultimately the structure in gold is corrective, and the faith of the Aussie dollar's strength is connected to it, as well as to other dollar linked commodities (iron ore, copper), and subjected to stronger easing biases, vs those of the United Kingdom's BOE. In this regard, on the subject of fundamental analysis, we can see that the bias it favors is on the long side, but the timing for trading with it wouldn't position us favorably in this trade. I'll be looking for shorts as soon as gold starts rallying again, waiting for a retest of the top area, since I think we're seeing a corrective X wave flat pattern with limited downside. This will lead to new highs to complete the monthly uptrend signal target which will possibly form a new zigzag with a wedge C wave like we have observed before in this pair. This new wedge C wave will be the top of this formation offering an ideal short trade of larger implications, which is what I'm after. Conclusion is: If this model holds, and I think it's highly probable that it will, we will see a range bound situation, leading to a new high in a sharp advance, after which we will probably observe a terminal wedge pattern, which will be our cue for the interesting short setup, which should retrace the whole structure, and lead to a perfect long entry to rejoin the larger quarterly uptrend. I will continue to update this publication, since I think it has great potential and value, both as a journal, and as a testament of both Tradingview.com's and Tim West's 'time at mode' model's power. Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
41
GBPAUD: Doves vs Hawks pt.2I'm watching this pair closely, there's a time at mode downtrend currently active but the target was already reached. We have a lot of interesting news events today for both currencies which makes me think we will have an excellent opportunity on the long side here. I'll update with my suggested entry once I'm convinced enough. Longer term time at mode targets are still active and valid, so I think we will soon reach them based on both technicals and fundamental information. Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
13
GBPCAD: Trend reversal?I think this is the case here. We have reached the profile point of balance projection from the low to the longterm mode of this uptrend. As expected, price sharply reversed in one day, consuming almost 3 days worth of progress. I'm waiting for the daily close to enter short, will update the chart once I'm ready, also adding 4h charts to better illustrate the price action that supports my thesis. I think this is a very good trade, potentially worth risking 1% (my full position allocation). Entry will be divided in two with a partial TP to make the rest of the trade risk free. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
17
GBPUSD: Potential weekly downtrend spottedWe have an interesting trade setting up in GBPUSD. The time at mode signal points to an intermediate term decline to 1.4222, that can extend to 1.39366. What's interesting about it is that the resistance above very strong and that the signal generates close to the expected Fed rate hike week. I think we might get a fill this week, and if the trade works, it will be a very sharp selloff. For assistance managing positions and entering without having to do the work, you can check out my Zulutrade page in my profile, I'll be sending trades through it from now on for convenience. Seems like a fair way for people to follow my trades without being forced to pay a fixed monthly fee (which only benefits the trader, who doesn't need to even profit from trades to make money! -red flag-). Follow me on twitter, I'll update charts here but not with trade management and trailing suggestions like before (I do need to pay bills :) ) Check out my recent TLT trade for an example of trade management. We will have few trades, but good ones if all goes as expected, the sharp selloff in the S&P500 was the start of a new trending enviroment possibly, and if that's the case, we can expect to see strong volatility, and sharp and wide trending legs for us to take. Cheers! Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
13
GBPNZD: the beginning of a longterm uptrendThis is my time at mode analysis of this pair. Currently kicking off with a strong uptrend off a longterm mode. The horizontal lines map different areas of high volume from the past, which were 'fair value' at one given time. They are magnetic in nature and offer valuable clues as to where price will move, or where price will stop and reverse. In Elliott Wave terms, there's a clear impulse in sight, but I'm not 100% sure about its construction. Quoting my friend's Nick Coulby's work, this might be the start of the 3rd wave, inside a larger 5 wave structure. This could always resolve into a series of nested 1-2,1-2 impulses that end up in an explosive move up, so I'll just focus on buying the correction completion.
Long
by IvanLabrie
18
GBPNZD: Potential range tradeWe have a confluence of signals indicating a long is possible from this area. We got: Key hidden levels options expirations support Downtrend signal that probably won't be reached in time. (if not reached = bullish!) RgMov in an uptrend since the inverted head and shoulders in jangseohee's chart formed. Also showing fibonacci levels of support at play. (It can be used to detect trends and sentiment very well, great tool) CCI showing a hidden divergence and quarterly ROC showing an uptrend. Price action suggests this oversold spike down reached its end, specially if we break above the last daily bar's high. Feel free to comment, and take this trade as well...Keep in mind price can extend down to meet my forecasted time at mode downtrend target by April 17th. I don't think it will, but it can. Targets would be between 1.97 and 1.99 in a strong surge, but it can extend higher. Stops are to be placed based on your own criteria, always follow your methodology, this is nothing more than a trade journal. Good luck!
Long
by IvanLabrie
14
GBPNZD: Correction spottedThis is an interesting chart. I was under the impression that this was a running correction intially but the recent price action makes me think otherwise. The majority of the people are expecting a rate cut this week, during the RBNZ rate decision on Wednesday. With heavy UK data coming out tomorrow, volatility is a given and I think the bigger risk/reward ratio will be on the short side. Looking to short this week, using the 4h chart for entry, and scaling in as we move forward. I'll update with my entry and scale ins once the trade is active. This trade would serve as a hedge for GBPUSD longs. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
21
GBPNZD: Forming an expanding terminal wedgeWe have one more push up left before this turns into a massive short in my opinion. Right now, I had a short running, from a lower timeframe entry but I'll cover and go long at the support level in green, which also matches an 11 bar daily mode. Look at the momentum indicators, I plotted a derivative oscillator, composite index and RSI with averages to illustrate my point: This is a topping formation, suggesting we sell the next swing up, which will probably form a lower momentum and atr peak before the house of cards comes crashing down. Risk is 180 pips, but the target lies 809.3 pips up, so I won't hesitate with this setup. Once we take profits from the long trade, we can initiate a short at the same area, so, leaving a take profit and a reverse position at the same price, using an ATR based stop. Will modify it if need be, for now I'd reccomend focusing on the long. See the related ideas for more examples on this methodology applied to this pair. Time at mode has been excellent at timing and pricing swing end points before, and I believe it will work again this time. Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
35
GBP/USD Bearish Wedge Back on Track after BoE, NFPsThis is a follow up and an expansion on our GBPUSD chart posted last week (see link to related ideas below). The recent rejection of $1.5660/1.5700 has resulted in a loss of the uptrend from the July 8, 9, and 24 lows. In context of the potential longer-term pattern - a bearish rising wedge that commenced with the break in price on July 7 and subsequent rejection of wedge TL support as resistance on July 15 - it looks like the next leg lower in GBPUSD is beginning. The key level to watch into the end of the week is ~$1.5460, the swing low in the countertrend rally on July 24. A weekly close below this level would offer a confirmation signal for a move lower (further supported by H4 and daily indicators spilling over into bearish territory). Key levels lower to watch come in at ~$1.5315 and ~$1.5160. Bears may find risk contained to $1.5635, the pre-BoE "Super Thursday" high in price on August 6. Still, with resistance having established itself in the $1.5660/1.5700 area (as noted in the chart from last week), gains may be difficult to come by on the long side; the path of least resistance is lower.
Short
by CVecchioFX3e
2
GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Long Position Triggered;Talking Points: GBPUSD Technical Strategy : Bullish Support: 1.5475, 1,5357, 1.5250 Resistance: 1.5635, 1.5675, 1.5780 GBPUSD had a beating from BOE, but we still believe there is one pending leg up before it’s turn bearish. Currently pair broken bullish daily trendline but supported by bearish weekly trendline. We are expecting range trading between 1.5780 & 1.5500. Breaking below 1.5475 can find support at 1.5375. While above 1.5640 can open door towards 1.5780. On Elliottwave view, we are holding temporary bullish view as part of correction label of wave (w)-(x)-(y) as part of flat correction. Our primary target will be 1.5780, while daily close above the bearish channel at 1.5640 will boost our confidence. Our long from 1.5485 triggered and for primary target for 1.5780. Once, we reach our first target, we will close half position and leave half for more momentary gain. To receive instance trade update and analysis in your mailbox, please subscribe us for risk free 15 days trial by sending mail to hoagtrading@gmail.com
Long
by Hittesh
EURUSD and GBPUSD: updateAnalysis on chart. I'll update it once I see a clear short signal in the weekly chart. Daily remains turbulent and unclear, it's possible to see a small rally, so shorting is a bit dangerous unless using wide stops and going long is even worse. I'll analyze price action and look into selling short once we see confirmation here. Crude oil seems to have resumed the downside, I'd be skeptical of a rally from here, but it's possible. As an addendum, TSLA might head down with crude oil, as gas gets cheaper and electric cars lose appeal (it has happened before). I'm looking to go long at a key level, as seen in my related idea below. Good luck, and have a nice weekend. Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
14
EUR vs GBP: Pair trade setupSimple trade, trends are pretty clear here I believe. EURGBP is a strong downtrend and will resume its direction this week I believe. GBPUSD is an interesting long setup, with 11 weeks at one price and sitting above the mode currently. You can market buy now, but it'll be 100% confirmed once it reaches my entry level on chart (1.57084). Targets are for both time and price, you can trade all 3 as single pair trades, or use ADR to measure position size on each side and only trade eurusd and gbpusd on opposite directions. ADR values are: GBPUSD: 105.6 pips/day EURUSD: 98.6 pips/day So if risking 2% with a 10k capital, you will use 0.19 standard lots for GBPUSD and adjust the EURUSD position size by volatility to match the GBPUSD one as follows: 105.6/98.6 = 1,070993914807302 (ratio to adjust EURUSD position size with) Thus, EURUSD lot size should be: 0.22 std. lots If trading single pairs, it's simple, cost per pip as everyone knows. Good luck, Ivan.
by IvanLabrie
4
GBPAUD LONG LOOKING FOR A BUYING OPPORTUNITY AT MY BUY ZONE WHICH IS IN CONFLUENCE WITH A FIB LEVEL AND A 3RD TOUCH OF THE TREND LINE. A BREAK OF THIS BUY ZONE WILL LEAD DOWN TO MY NEXT BUY ZONE. FUNDAMENTALLY THIS TRADE IS ONLY GOING IN ONE DIRECTION IN THE LONG TERM BECAUSE THE BOE (BANK OF ENGLAND) STATED THAT THEY ARE CLOSER TO RAISING RATES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE END OF THIS YEAR OR IN THE BEGINNING OF 2016 WHICH LEAVES GBP THE SECOND STRONGEST CURRENCY AFTER THE DOLLAR.ON THE FLIP SIDE AUD IS BEARISH ALONG SIDE THE OTHER COMMODITY CURRENCIES SUCH AS CAD AND NZD. CHINA SITUATION IS ALSO WEIGHING DOWN AUD. FIRST TARGET AT SWING HIGH/2.12000
Long
by remelthomas
Pair trade: Short NZDUSD, Long GBPUSDI'll open a pair trade to minimize risk in my GBPUSD long setup. There's a weekly sell opportunity in the NZDUSD chart, which will give me a relatively low risk entry as per my analysis that gold isn't done falling, and that NZDUSD (and GBPNZD will resume the trend they are in). Position size is based on the ADR figures for both pairs, risking 2% and aiming for the targets on chart. There will be no stop loss, so, if you find this idea attractive, take the trade at your own risk. GBPUSD's ADR: 112.7 pips NZDUSD's ADR: 89.7 pips Thus, I'll open two positions, adjusting the NZDUSD one by 1,25x to match the GBPUSD volatility. The setup on chart shows a conservative SL in case you'd rather trade it individually. Good luck, Ivan.
by IvanLabrie
51
GBPUSD: Still looks like a long to meThis is my second attempt at a long. I think this pair is trending heavily up, and while I think some usd pairs might head down (like audusd and nzdusd, at least in the short/intermediate term), this pair looks to be headed up. Once we cross the quarterly mode I'll be confident in hitting the yearly targets #1 and #2, for now I entered a long here, and also shorted audusd (and went long usdjpy, while shorting nzdjpy), thus trading a spread without having to trade gbpnzd or gbpaud, which are less liquid and don't move as predictably (where do you place a stop in that monster rally? Don't ask me...). Technicals align nicely here, we have a confluence of both my rudimentary EW analysis, and time at mode, with the quarterly ROC trending up, CCI about to get overbought soon, crossing above -100 after finding support at a fibonacci cluster, which was also the previous daily mode. We have the mode in the trend rising, which is bullish, and rgmov forming a new high over a previous resistance, which resembles a wave 1-2 advance in EW terms (Tim West recently posted a chart about EURUSD, performing his EW analysis directly on Rgmov, it can give excellent and more 'predictive' results than trying it on the actual price, do check it out. Good luck if you take this trade, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
37
GBPJPY: Long for now but watch it around September 28thTime at mode weekly analysis of the advance since the low in 2012. Price has already tested once the most frequent price since 1991, and fell instantly, but now rebounded and is heading up again. There is an active monthly uptrend, but the price target has already been exceeded. It would seem as if this is a topping formation, and even if temporary, the decline that will unfold if this validates a terminal wedge, will be very sharp and at least headed to 171.067 instantly. I'm long GBPUSD, and GBPNZD, but going long here might pay off, keeping in mind we might be able to short it soon. I'll update the chart with my entry, for now, you can try going long at 188.6145 with a stop at 186.463 and no TP. Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
GBPUSD: bullish setup updateWe have a very good bullish setup that just confirmed. The daily corrective downtrend has expired, and there's a 15 day rally forecast currently active. Stop loss should be below the 1.5328 mark, and an entry on a retracement would be ideal. Looking to market buy asap, but ideally a retracement into the green zone would be better, with a tight stop at 1.53775. If we move above the quarterly mode at 1.5918, we can be sure of further bullish continuation as a distinct possibility. Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
30
GBPCAD: Topping this monthWatching this pair closely since I spotted what looks like a very significant top area, both in time and price. It's possible that GBPCAD will form an ending diagonal triangle and give us a great short opportunity in the coming weeks. The daily and weekly uptrend signals point to a top between the 9th and the 24th of July. It's also interesting to note that there's significant divergence in multiple timeframes, and the levels obtained with time at mode, linear regression channels, fibonacci extensions of wave 1 of this leg and a previous downtrend quarterly/monthly mode overhead resistance all match. If this analysis proves to be correct, we will get a great short opportunity. Will update with an entry. Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
23