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$GBP v $JPY Unfolds Into Geo; Eyes 66.9 | #BOE #BOJ #brexit $EURSYNOPSIS : 1 - Fundamentals turn against $GBP; BOJ can't control strengthening $JPY: Net Bearish for $GBPJPY, expecting the strengthening #yen to carry a longer shaping effect in the overall geometry, as opposed to a weaker #pound 2 - Predictive/Forecasting Model is net bearish with TG-Lo = 87.772, TG-Lox = 66.900, WL = 38.992 in decreasing probability 3 - Background geometry develops internal pathognomonic of the Geo with reciprocal ab = cd symmetry in line with "Model" lowest qualitative target, TG-Lox 4 - Point-3 of Geo may represent Point-5' in current construction; Favors Point-5' - If so, apply Rule #2 of Geo's compesatory rule, making Point-4 the higher probable reversal target, itself a firm historical R/S level 5 - Invalidation occurs if price BACA > 163.895 handle Best, David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Short
by 4xForecaster
BREXIT AND GEO-POLITICAL AFTERMATH: BUY USDJPY - HOW TO TRADENow that the Brexit risk has been realised the mentioned pairs above will share some correlation this week as the market changes between risk-on and risk-off as MANY on the events continually drive the sentiment shifts. My Plan & Expectations USDJPY 1. My conviction for UJ is long 8/10. -UJ traded to lows of 98.9 in the midst of the brexit hype, as the market hunted for risk off. Further, as with GBP it seems entities over the weekend have increased their JPY exposure to account for the increased percieved risk within the market causing UJ to open lower at 101.6 - However, over the weekend the BOJ had a meeting with other Japanese officials to discuss their plan (an easing plan likely) to combat 1. their inflation problem and now 2. the JPY's safe haven demand strength - both of which are cured by 8/10 aggressive easing policies by the BOJ - Thus I expect the BOJ to hold and emergency meeting this week announcing these changes to have immediate affect as UJ at 100 severely puts the brakes on their inflation growth target. - Further, as previously mentioned the BOE, SNB, FOMC and ECB (among others) have all said since the brexit vote that they are prepared to provide liquidity to markets and their rhetoric has been very dovish. - Thus the BOJ's new easing package which is likely to be aggressive e.g. 20bps rate cute and a large increase QE, will help depreciate the currency through increasing supply and reducing jpy demand. Further, the supportive/ dovish stance of the worlds central banks (particularly BOE and FOMC) will help ease risk aversion which in turn SHOULD reduce JPY demand therefore helping UJ trade better to the upside. So my trading plan for UJ is to buy at levels <102 - 101/2 is ideal (we are unlikely see 99 or 100 again as the risk-off impetuses have died). UJ should hold this range between 101.2 and 103 until CB meetings are in place - I will be holding UJ in the long term through to 110-115 at least. I have 8/10 long conviction for UJ Volatility update: Current UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade at 37.5%, which is surprisingly 3-4x higher than it was last week (the risk and volatility may not be over). 1wk UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade at 20%, significantly lower than current at 37.5% - I think this is a function of the central bank meetings expected this week which are inflating current volatility, with 1wk far vols lower as the events will have elapsed already. 1m UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade up on the week at 15.5% though the time curve is flattening meaning UJ vol is falling over time - lower vols = better conditions for UJ buying. Current UJ Option demand is skewed significantly to the downside, with Puts 40% vs calls 36% thus puts are in demand by about 10% more than calls - this supports nearterm risk-off views (RR -4). USDJPY as a measure of market risk. I still suggest using UJ as a measure of GBPUSD market risk - the volatility seemingly isnt over, and with near term uncertainty high, it is prudent to track UJ and use breaks of its 101.2-103.2 range as signals of net risk on or risk-off commitment .e.g. UJ higher risk on (jpy selling), UJ lower risk off (jp buying). The risk off move for GU imo is lower in this environment, and the risk-on move is higher. Thus, IMO UJ and GU are sync'd, and the two should be used as a tool.
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
BREXIT & GEO-POLITICAL AFTERMATH: SHORT GBPUSD - HOW TO TRADEGBPUSD - At the end of last week GU traded to lows of 1.32 on the brexit vote, before retracing substantially to 1.39 by the end of the day. - GU retraced 600-700pips after the brexit event IMO solely as investors took profit from their shorts (which causes buying) - thus there was no structural reason for GU recovering e.g. it was that 1.32 had mispriced GU too low for the brexit vote. On the back of this I expect the following for GU this week: 1. I have a 8/10 short conviction on GU and ultimately believe it will trade <1.30 by weeks end for the following reasons: - - As on friday, the bearish movements we saw on GBP were 90% fast money trades and NOT real/ slow money positioning (due to different regulations and trading strategies) therefore, this week, slow/ real money will now be able to get behind the short sterling move thus providing momentum for GBP to move lower and sub 1.30. *Fast money is hedge funds and slow money is asset managers* - David Cameron UK PM also resigned following the result, thus putting further downside expectations on GBP in the near-medium term particularly as it as all come at once. - Also the BOE plans to increase its QE by 66% 350bn to 600bn to support markets but this printing increasing GBP money supply affect puts downward pressure on the GBPUSD. - Further, members of the European parliament have asked and put pressure on the UK to make their exit faster than previously expected, this puts further uncertainty around the brexit and increases the negative impact it may have on the economy and therefore the GBP speculation is made further bearish. - As pictured I had expected the 1.356-1.382 range that had held at the end of last week to hold for the next 24hrs and for GU to trade relatively flat (24hrs for people to make decisions on positioning) however it looks like corporations and other entities have derisked their GBP exposure over the weekend hence we opened 300pips lower at 1.342. - With this range broken we now trade in no mans land, thus with all the negative biases my target from now is for GU to drift towards the lows set from last week for now - If the market changes significantly within the next few hours (e.g. trades back into range) i will update this view. - My target for GBP is <1.30 with a terminal value of 1.25 within the quarter - though i consider that the supportive (no hike) policy of the FOMC will ease GBPUSD losses somewhat. This in mind shorts at these levels are fair 1.34. Alternatively, I also encourage my favourite tactic of shorting/ fading any GBP rallies to 1.38/39 however the chance of GU realising such upside imo is only 50%, with bid trading dominating Volatility update: Current GU ATM 50 delta vols trade at 25%, which is surprisingly 2x higher than it was last week (the risk and volatility may not be over). 1wk GU ATM 50 delta vols trade at 30%, significantly higher than last week also. However 1ms trade 20.49% and are significantly lower than they were last week (illustrating the event risk that has elapsed). Current GU Option demand is skewed significantly to the downside, with Puts 27.5% vs calls 22.5% thus puts are in demand by about 20% more than calls - this supports current short views (RR -5). 1wk GU demand is also skewed in favour of downside coverage, with puts at 33% vs calls 28%, (RR -5%) with puts being demanded apprx 3% more than calls - supporting the near terms view of short GU USDJPY as a measure of market risk. I still suggest using UJ as a measure of GBPUSD market risk - the volatility seemingly isnt over, and with near term uncertainty high, it is prudent to track UJ and use breaks of its 101.2-103.2 range as signals of net risk on or risk-off commitment .e.g. UJ higher risk on (jpy selling), UJ lower risk off (jp buying). The risk off move for GU imo is lower in this environment, and the risk-on move is higher. Thus, IMO UJ and GU are sync'd, and the two should be used as a tool.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
GBPSGD: Interesting long opportunityWe have an interesting setup in GBPSGD, look to enter longs at market open, on dips to support or if we get new highs. There is potential for the weekly uptrend to resume as well, but ideally we'd want to see price move in our favor right away. As usual, risk a max of 1-2% on this trade if you take it. Stop loss orders should be below Friday's low to be conservative. It's important to give trades just enough room to work. Good luck! Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.57% on such information.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
Sterling Sell OpportunitiesAwaiting a pull back and an exhausted bull candle to trigger a sell. It isn't clear if price will simply continue down or pull back to allow an ideal entry however keep an eye out as price approaches the 50% fib as it's likely traders will liquidate short positions which will allow for a pull back and re-entry to the downside. Brexit fears and what I expect will be a dovish BOE statement this week coming should put more pressure on Sterling to the benefit of the downside.
Short
by Elliot_Myers
GBPUSD: After hitting the monthly downtrend target, trend is upGBPUSD has hit the monthly downtrend target, and formed an uptrend setup in the 3 day chart. If not in, there're a variety of ways of joining this trend, via either some kind of options on currency ETFs, or going long GBPUSD with a wide stop loss (ideally on a retracement, but might not happen for a while) or any GBP cross with a suitable setup (I'm in GBPAUD currently, since it offered a very clear entry at 1.852, currently at break even). Use GBPUSD as your map for trading other GBP crosses, you can long all of them (maybe except Yen pairs for now) until GBPUSD hits the mode at 1.53, then it can either turn back down, or break it and rally to at least 1.68. Monitor monthly CCI, once it gets overbought, we should book some profits from our GBP longs. I'll update with new entries if we get any, for now, stand aside if not in some gbp long. If not in, go long GBPCAD now, see my other publication, use a 1 or 3 daily ATR stop loss. 447 pips for 3 atr. Long term position. If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
8
GBPCAD: Potential uptrend emerging from hereWe can look to capture some upside in this pair. Currently lagging GBPUSD, and offering indications of a potential bottom. We have landed on the recent monthly uptrend's mode, currently finding support and evidence of the bulls getting involved here. A resumption of said uptrend seems likely. If you're not long, you can enter at market with stops under 1.8257 ideally. Plenty of room to catch up with GBPUSD and other GBP pairs. If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
12
GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Keeping bullish viewTalking Points: GBPUSD Technical Strategy: Keeping Bearish view Elliottwave Count: ZigZag Correction will be our primary choice in count GBPUSD Start showing divergence on daily bearish trenline and 240min newly created bullish trendline. Current level 1.4650-1.4700 is 100% expansion of zigzag and also testing horizontal resistance. Long term trend is down and don't see any reason to see bullish count but consider upward move from 1.3850 to 1.4750 is a pair of zigzag correction.
Short
by Hittesh
GBPAUD: Pound/Aussie has bottomedAfter an extended decline since the 2015 high, it appears like GBPAUD has hit rock bottom. I'm long from 1.85243, and added today at 1.85526. I expect price to retest the low volume resistance at 2.00 in the intermediate term, and possibly aim for new highs if we break this level in time. If you're not in the trade, try to enter at market with a 3 times the daily ATR stop loss, and add the remaining half position if we get a retracement next week (unlikely). This type of trend reversal trade, usually involves no retracement, and people eager to 'long the trendline break retest' get left behind eating the pioneer's dust. So, be brave and buy strength! If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
22
GBPAUD: More shorts for continuationGBPAUD is tracing a nice steady downtrend, and recently has formed a nice consolidation, which has given way to a time at mode downtrend setup. We can go short here, odds are very nice and we have a lofty target to benefit from if the trade works. Entry is at market and stop losses should be 1-3 ATR, or placed above 1.85541. If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
4
GBPUSD: The Pound is facing downside pressureThe Pound has been supported, while tracing a triangle, which is characterized by the lack of a clear trend direction. Rgmov has been in a downtrend, suggesting that every overbought rally was a short, which has been the case. Currently, price is breaking below the weekly mode, which is 11 weeks long, and soon to be 12 after this week's close (unless we expand the weekly range down). I think it's highly likely to see a sharp move to the downside now that the support has been broken and that the inside trendlines forming the triangle have receded too. If we expand the daily range, we could take a tighter stop short, for the time being I'm in with a 3 ATR stop loss, and will be looking to add as we get further confirmation of trend continuation. Good luck if taking this trade. If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
6
EURJPY and GBPJPY: Potential long setupsVery nice potential longs setting up here, next week we might get nice confirmation to add to longs. For now, this is a rather low risk entry, going with the trend in the daily. Risk half on each. Short term timeframes show good momentum building up, and I see equities continuing to be bullish for a little more upside (S&P500 to retest the downtrend mode at 2082 at least). After we close the gray horizontal lines on chart we can confirm the trade and add to them. Good luck if taking these trades. Have a nice weekend! Ivan Labrie
Long
by IvanLabrie
19