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Shedding A Few Pounds For Christmas...GBPUSD rejected at 1.35xx which acting as major resistance after the country went back on the leadership merrygoround. Here actively selling into all rallies in GBP crosses, although there is a caveat to Pound shorts in the immediate term. With Johnson and a ruthless Downing Street in full control of the press and hitting the “right” headlines the positive narrative around Brexit will continue and therefore dips will be perceived as attractive too many. The Conservative majority was clear and simple to trade, particularly in GBPAUD : GBPUSD In any case well done all of those in shorts from the 1.35xx election highs … you will remember “ perception is more important than reality with FX ” … Remain nimble to take some chips off the table. A squeeze below 1.315x will make me excited. This next chart indicates the sense of division in Britain, a fragmented society which also highlights the stupidity to have such a referendum on a complex topic. The UK is not like Swiss for example having referendum after referendum, rather it is a representative democracy. Yet sadly we are seeing a corruption of democracy via media manipulation swerving public opinion. For example, those who remember Cameron's premiership will remember the government was at the time asking for public to remain while they were pursuing policies of austerity (decreasing consumer confidence) and served to have more damage than good. The silent revolution or protest vote (all cleverly calculated) unlocked Pandoras box with a People vs Establishment narrative: Thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc. As usual jump into the comments with your ideas and views to open the discussion for all!
Short
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | GBP Swing PositioningFor those tracking "GBP Fast Flows" and "UK Election" coverage this will apply as we do a deep dive into the technicals of the swing positioning. This will serve as a live example and reference chart in the future for some of our scaling techniques and conversations. In any case let's first start by reviewing the highs we are positioning around on both the fundamental and technical side. As widely anticipated £/$ 1.35xx was the key resistance level to track from the previous chart and has presented us with a +/- 350 tick selloff (so far): The election strategy has been clear, a Conservative majority was a short-term bid on Sterling before a dramatic selloff via Brexit damage to the real economy. Perhaps the flows are even easier to spot in GBPAUD: For technical flows in this conversation, we are putting 1.315x under the test. It is key support !!! and the only level to track for the rest of the week. If demand continues to absorb the selloff it will send clear messages there is still more work to be done in the ladder at 1.335x and the 1.35xx handle. Should we lose 1.315x support it will immediately unlock the macro selloff towards 1.15xx. After it held for the London session and NY open, covering longs here makes sense with a plan to lift off retests into 1.335 and 1.350x. Will need reassessment with a daily close below 1.315x. Jump into the comments with any questions, charts and etc. Thanks as always for keeping the support coming with likes!
Long
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2019.12.16...That was it for the day on the FX board. Highlights going to EURUSD chopping through the 1.11xx handle and continuing its slow grind higher. We will need assistance from European macro numbers to make the move impulsive in nature (no surprises today’s PMIs suggest some early signs of stabilising). Services continue to do the heavy lifting while manufacturing lags badly thanks to protectionism. I will continue to add on dips and ride the pig with reassessment only necessary below 1.110x. GBPUSD … 1.35xx acting as major resistance after the country went back on the leadership merrygoround. There is a caveat to Pound shorts in the immediate term, with Johnson and a ruthless Downing Street in full control of the press and hitting the “right” headlines the positive narrative around Brexit will continue and therefore dips will be perceived as attractive too many. In any case well done all of those in shorts from the 1.35xx election highs … you will remember “ perception is more important than reality with FX ” … Remain nimble to take some chips off the table. A squeeze below 1.315x will make me excited. Good luck all those trading EURGBP, GBPUSD and EURUSD. A superb lineup as we enter into the final stages of the year, thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and questions!
Long
by ridethepig
Worm In The Apple - Live UK Election Debate Coverage!A good time to update for those tracking the GBPJPY position I posted yesterday will remember the timely entry, those unfamiliar with the chart can see here: Risk-off is entering back into the picture and JPY is finding a strong bid, with Pound in election mode momentum is not particularly impressive to the upside. A Conservative majority seems a done deal now, Brexit is coming and no one wants to get long Pound at these levels with a disaster on the horizon. For the flows you can see how those who go against the grain here will get caught with pants down. The market can move with force with direction shifted to sell. Under normal circumstances this would be a good level to buy, however given the action at the highs it is a terrible position. Expecting bears to chase it out to the downside over the coming sessions. Our objective here is to trap those buying expecting continuation, the pendulum will swing back to the negative side after the Debate is cleared tonight. Bears will have to cover quickly as it will move like a hot knife and butter, those caught up at the highs buying are already struggling. Ideally we want the sellers to hold the buyers stops and trigger further momentum, this is the market telling us what direction is the right direction. An interesting graphic I shared here last week: I recommended a short in the Tradingview Portfolio yesterday with the People vs Establishment narrative brewing, sentiment is quite negative and continuing to create flows into risk-off assets. Today you are starting to see JPY and Gold outperform, you will see the same thing in sentiment continue to gain momentum over the coming sessions. Continuing to add shorts at 140.50...In an ideal world I would like to see offers come in here and on the break we need to see the stops not hold at 140.25. Market is going to keep searching for stops to the downside and here looking to target the 139.xx handle for my initial targets. The aim of this post is to highlight a textbook case of "biting the apple that has a worm". Good luck all those on the sell side for tonight's debate. I will be covering the flows live in the comments section, as usual jump in at any time with any questions!
Short
by ridethepig
EU: Long Setup (11.12)The Euro has dropped steadily from the previous higher-low in the current long-term downtrend (1.11795). The weekly support of 1.1 is within 10 pips. Tomorrow and this week we'll be looking for longs at the key level of 1.1 Staying dynamic and not being stuck on one bias is key to seeing through the noise and trading the Euro in peace. If support is found, I expect 1.175 to be hit as an upside target very quickly. This trade entry is provided in our telegram channels.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn3442968
US and China buck up markets, Bank of England disagreesThursday was not full in events however we could observe some movements that were mainly focused on safe-haven assets, in which a mass exodus of traders was observed. You do not have to guess what is markets concern about, just look throughout the dynamics of gold or the Japanese yen, you can see is there any progress or not in negotiation between the USA and Sino. Since gold, like the Japanese yen, was sold yesterday, it is clear that something positive happened between the United States and China. Indeed, China and the United States have agreed to tariffs phase-out before the deal to be made. This is a very strong confirmation signal for markets that were expecting the successful completion of the first phase of negotiations by the end of the month. Accordingly, investors relaxed and began to leave the safe-haven assets, which provoked sales in government bond markets and safe-haven assets. In connection with such news, we will wait a while with the purchase of safe-haven assets, since in the short term it is difficult to say how long it will take to work out this fundamental factor. Although in the medium term we remain bulls (gold), and we consider the current decline as an opportunity for cheaper purchases. Progress in trade negotiations contributed to the oil prices growth so that diversification once again proved to be the best ( losses in gold were offset by oil earnings). Well, our recommendation to buy oil continues to be relevant. The Bank of England decided to keep the base rate at the same level. However, the voting results surprised: 7 members of the Monetary Policy Committee spoke in favour of the invariance of the rate, but two of them voted in favour of a cut. Which, of course, was a negative signal for the pound. However, support for 1.2810 has survived. Accordingly, our recommendation to buy GBPUSD on intraday day basis remains valid. But do not forget about the stops, and it does not make any sense to put them largely- the bears may well seize the initiative and take the pair to the bottom 1.27. The euro was not lucky yesterday, industrial production in Germany fell by 0.6% (a 0.4% decline was expected). Given the rather strong downward pressure today, we are more likely to sell the euro than to buy it. But today, instead of pairs with the euro, we will work in pairs with the Canadian dollar. Labour market statistics are likely to lead to a volatility jump. Well, recall that for commodity currencies (which include the Canadian dollar is included), progress in trade negotiations is a positive signal. Yesterday it was ignored by the markets, but it is likely to be worked out today.
Short
by Trade24Fx
GBPUSD double topSo today we had a split vote on Bank of England decision. While rates stayed the same, 2 members of the board voted for a cut. Their opinion is due to Brexit uncertainty. At the moment we see a double top on daily chart with great divergence. Elliott waves suggest that wave (iv) could correct to target of the double top. If price does not drop below the high of wave (i), then the current count holds. Impulsive break through current support is the signal, best maybe to wait for retest for additional confirmation and better risk-reward. Good Luck!
by Antonio_trader
ORBEX: GBPCHF & EURJPY Follow Identical Pattern (hint: bullish)!In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about #fxminors #EURJPY and #GBPCHF as they both seem to be moving within an identical pattern. Despite the added uncertainty amid the latest delay drama of phase-1 of a potential trade deal between US and China, safe-havens #yen and #franc seemed unaffected by at least this type of flows. That suggests that participants are now shifting to more exciting events, expected to trade trade war flows when a more significant and certain development comes on the surface. Until then, #euro and #pound inflows could push the aforementioned pairs higher, with the latter hanging on today's #BoE meeting. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
ORBEX: Pre-BoE GBJPY, Post-Fed USDMXNIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPJPY and #USDMXN! #Pound Remains Solid: - MPs support 3-month extension - Monthly CPI rise not as expected, but improved #Yen Likely to Weaken: - BoJ held rates unchanged but acknowledged increasing risks - Ultraloose policy to be re-examined at October meeting #MXN Supported By Fed: - Emerging currencies will benefit from rate differentials - Oil is bid and likely to move higher Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
GBP/USD: Hot or Not ?GBP/USD: hot or not ? The trend remains downward in the short/very short term. After breaking down the static support at 1.264 identified by 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement, the next target targeted on this currency pair is the support area at 1.25. Reachable today as analysts expect a recovery of the intraday US dollar ahead of the publication of positive nonfarm payrolls. So technically, the price should go to test the support in the 1.25 area by todays closing and, should it be violated to the downside. It could mark a new period minimum in this 2019 going beyond the 1,237. Basically this hypothesis is the most likely in the short term as the strong uncertainty around Great Britain due to Brexit. A rebound at the moment is not expected. Except for even more expansive scenarios of monetary policy from the Fed. To summarize GBP/USD: hot or not ? Maybe not. We recommend a short entry on this pair. The first target is in area of 1.25. The second target is in the intermediate area at 1,244. So the final one is at 1.237.
Short
by BFCMInvest
1
1700 per ounce of gold, another crisis signal, Powell's speechFed’s monetary policy vector changes, the pressure between the US and Iran has reached a critical level, the overall high level of investor concern led to the fact that gold almost reached 1140 yesterday. As a result, an increasing number of traders and analysts are turning into purchases. In particular, Marc Chandler from Bannockburn Global Forex believes that a breakdown of 1400 opens the way for gold to 1700. We are far from being so optimistic and we will look for points for its sales. In the meantime, analysts are continuing to look for signals about the coming crisis. Earlier, it was the inversion yield curve inversion, the departure of the Real Monetary Proposal to zero, the cycle theory, the decline of America's auto industry. The Fed is changing its approach to monetary policy by changes tightening and so on... Small-cap companies, as well as transport company stocks relative to the SP500 index dynamics, have shown the worst dynamics since 2009 (!). In theory, small-cap companies should grow much more actively than high-cap companies. And we are now seeing a kind of inversion. This inversion, according to analysts, is a disturbing signal and is a harbinger of the coming crisis. Data from the United States came out quite weak. New home sales also disappointed with 626k, missing expectations of 684k, as was the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dropped 9.8 points to a reading of 121.5 this month, the lowest since September 2017. Jerome H. Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said Tuesday that the downside risks to the US economy grew, but he avoided the topic of lowering rates. So the dollar received some support. Therefore we will use this dollar growth solely for the purpose of selling it more expensively. Today, surges of volatility in pound pairs are quite possible. The Bank of England (BOE) inflation report hearings will hog the limelight this Wednesday. Governor Mark Carney’s testimony will be closely heard, in the face of the recent dovish tilt. Note that the hearings will be on the May inflation report. In addition, data on orders for durable goods and the US trade balance may well lead to the formation of local trends in dollar pairs. Our trading preferences for today: we will continue to look for points for sales of the US dollar against the Japanese yen, euro, and pound. We continue to wait for a gold correction and look for points for its sales. And also we will actively sell the ruble both on the intraday basis as well as medium term.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
Tough week for foreign exchange market: the Fed, the BoJ & BoELast week turned out to be not that difficult. For instance, the data on industrial production was better than expected, also the data on retail sales appeared better as well, but still not that good. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI)came out below forecasts, but the difference was minimal, and the dollar strengthened fairly well in the foreign exchange market on Friday. The dollar growth has been observed due to the Fed's possible future actions. This week the US CB is announcing the monetary policy decision. On the one hand, the weak data could convince the Fed to reduce the rate but on the other hand, Friday's data seems to have more influence in taking the decision. The Bank of Russia lowered the rate on Friday. Due to the economic situation in RF as well as the current decline in oil prices, we continue to recommend sales of the Russian ruble. The data on industrial production turned out to be lower than expected (5.0%, with a forecast of 5.4%). However, the weak data was offset by exceeding retail sales forecasts. The companies are concerned with the consequences of the trade war. Therefore, more than 500 companies and industry trade associations wrote to the White House urging Trump to remove levies on China and end the ongoing trade war. This week we are waiting for announcing the results of the FOMC meeting, BoJ and BoE decisions on monetary policy parameters, data on inflation statistics ( Eurozone, the UK, and Canada ) as well as data on retail sales from the UK and Canada. Our trading preferences are unchanged: we will look for points for selling the US dollar primarily against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, selling oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold. We will look for points for buying GBPUSD with small stops.
Short
by Trade24Fx
An update to Cable ahead of the voteThe vote is kickstarting at 7:00pm GMT and I am still expecting another defeat here. What is necessary to track today is the severity of the defeat and the reaction of the DUP party. Odds of any deal passing today remain at 17%. The main issue for PM May is the slim majority she is barely holding onto. The deal will likely pass eventually, although we might have to see more economic pain in the UK for the DUP and other Labour Brexiteers to follow suit first... This pantomime may take till the summer. If it is voted down (expected today), then the next stage for parliament will be a vote on whether the government supports leaving a “no-deal” option on the table tomorrow and on Thursday the UK Government will vote on whether they should ask for a delay to the Brexit date. For those trading Sterling, we are almost back to the original entries of our shorts earlier in the month with late sellers getting caught underwater. Best of luck those trading the event live, here looking for more positions on the sell-side.
Short
by ridethepig
Cable soft ahead of NFPDollar catching a strong bid after yesterday's ECB. A very dovish Draghi sending shockwaves across financial markets, capital flight to the dollar continues via default as the only game in town. 1.31 was the level to track for the breakdown this week, yesterday we officially broke and now 1.24 is in the scope. For today's NFP we are expecting an inline report, a solid 185k payrolls report with a slight uptick in wages. Best of luck those already short, we are looking for the home-run here.
Short
by ridethepig
Art 50 extension likely...an update to CableHere we have an update to the Cable chart. The UK going back to the 1600’s as odds of another vote on PM May’s deal in the House of Commons this week are very low. For a house of “Commons” they are certainly lacking “common sense”. ... The rules are that two votes on the same motion are not permitted during the same parliamentary year. This means PM May will have to wait till July before being able to put the vote forward again. Obviously this can change if we see any changes in the majority support, however, as things stand we are on track for a no-deal Brexit from a legal perspective….The big question remains whether the EU will approve the extension. Odds of a long extension are creeping higher (67%) meaning pressure on the Brexiteers will increase massively to such an extent that they are forced to back May’s deal. Remember up until now we have been trading the conjecture leg of Brexit. The damage so far has come only from uncertainty, we have yet to experience the main impact of losing market access on the economy. Best of luck those who are positioned on either side for this result... we are going to see some fireworks!
Short
by ridethepig