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btc 3-4 update (key levels)hello o/ now that bitcorn is in a downward spiral, we can easily disqualify a few of the bull cases. here's a bear case which has a pretty high probability of playing out ~ i've highlighted this idea many times before, and i've gotta bring it to your attention once again. ----- another one that i am a big fan of is the wavy triangle via: ----- there might be one more that i'm missing, but i'll leave a short-term bullish alternative as well - just in case. and of course, if the local golden zone is able to hold, it might be able to make a push to 47.7k. ----- overall, i lean toward the idea of btc dropping sub-30k before anything substantial takes place. ✌
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by notoriousbids
7
BTC the 3 Scenarios that we had from weeks agoHey guys as our last analysis - we had 3 scenarios - lets take a closer look and make an update for these scenarios 1: This was our first analysis that we thought we have a trending impulse (which has 5 waves): There is no update needed for this analysis anymore coz We dont have trending impulse anymore (The Red Waved Scenario is out) 2: 2 week ago - we published our second analysis - That we can have A Terminal impulse (ending diagonal) which we said its less likely: Coz it was more like a Trending Impulse vs Terminal But now we can count one this scenario more Lets take a look at this scenario (The Blue Waved Scenario): If we break the Bottom Red Box - We ll have the LL (33k) Then we can Be sure this scenario is going to happen Target for this scenario after the 5th wave of terminal Ends, is : 51k Note that: if we are in this scenario - We must Break 33k (at least) - So we can short it to 33k - then close the short and wait to pattern completes itself to Buy with 51k Tp 3: 3rd Scenario that we promised to share it couple days ago is this (Black Waved Scenario): In this scenario - We have Triangle - And We expect C to ends above the 33k - between 39k to 37k and Long to 80k / 90k - first tp for this scenario is 57k So - What am i doing? As i said before - i m shorting BTC from 44400 If i see the weakness of sellers in the area between 39k to 37k - i ll close my short position otherwise - i ll hold my short to 33k and the next lower lows or simply - after we reach below 39k - i ll set my sl above 39.5k and 25% tp in 38.5k And wait to see if we go up or down if we go down - we ll take more profit - if we didnt - we ll close the short with Nice profit anyway And plz dont forget to press like bottom for more updates Thanks Have a great day Cya
by Sina-Gr
not for the faint hearted.morning, btc rejected a key level and was sent tumbling down. momentum slowly faded over the last few days, and the most important level which i talked about recently was not able to be breached to the upside. i'm starting to lean with the idea that btc is playing out something far more sinister than most people are currently expecting. --- we are hovering above the 21 monthly ema for the second month now, similar to what happened back in 2018. i am expecting more sideways chop on the larger frames before a full on break down \ backtest of the 55ema on the monthly frame (in the mid\low 20k range). if it'm right about this triangle, we should in theory see a few more weeks of re-distribution before it truly does break, and take away everything. ps. there are still valid bull cases at play too, but they have lost merit this morning.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by notoriousbids
15
"the alternative scenario"this has become just an alternative scenario as of now, you can probably just skip this one. update to 👇 ---- this particular case i have been talking about for a long time now, it implies that we're playing out a larger wxy which had begun back at 67k (not the absolute top) while i still do favor this idea, it is close to being invalidated. if this was to play out, we'd basically see a sharp move to the downside in the days ahead; if we don't get it soon, consider this idea deleted forever. wave C target = 33k.
by notoriousbids
5
BTC - Triangle patternBTC - Triangle pattern In this scenario: A = E / C > E , A Minimum expected Tp after the end of(E Point): +75% of the longest leg which is D here Maximum Tp is for the end of possible C Wave Minimum Date for the end of Wave C is + 8 March Max? Idk - it depends , but max for sure is before then Late November of 2022 (quite unlikely) And do not forget - this is just a scenario which can be wrong ( but i m sure about the short to 30k or lower anyway) i have 2 more - shared the first one before the start of pump to 45k and dump to 34k (a month ago): I ll share the 3rd one later if needed Keep calm & Short BTC xD GL HF
by Sina-Gr
2
btc 3-1 update~morning, btc is attempting to see a bullish expansion here, which would invalidate 2\4 cases i had presented last night. critical moment here. 42811.0 cannot be violated if it's going to attempt to expand to 48k (to put in the 3rd wave of a higher degree) via something like this: if this level is violated 42811.0, it might obviously try again, but the chances of this happening would become quite slim. more likely than not, if it cannot hold bullish structure, it will retrace back down to the range lows via something like this: if 48k is reached, we will eventually see a move up to 53k to complete the larger mean retracement.
by notoriousbids
3
bull trap?a lot of people think the bottom has been put in, and while this is entirely possible, i bring to you a few cases which disagree with this idea. ---- scenario #1 is "The bull trap" is the one i've got displayed on my chart it implies that the summer move was a 5 wave impulse which completed a larger wave 3, and now we are in the middle of a massive wave 4 correction via a W-X-Y (3-3-5 or 3-3-3) which completes near the end of july \ beginning of august closer to 22k. ---- scenario #2 is "The wicked triangle" i talked about it last week via 👇 this idea implies that we are also in the midst of a larger wave 4 correction, but in a slightly more deviant way. a triangle creates uncertainty to both bulls and bears, and shakes them both out before a massive move to the upside takes place. picture a bull flag, but on a grand scale; that's precisely what this would be ;). ---- scenario #3 - the least likely as of right now talked about this in some of my recent videos, but it's lost it's level of probability, so you can probably just ignore this one. though, if you are interested in another potential scenario; this one implies that we are playing out wave b (of an abc to the downside) of wave y of Wave Y of a higher degree to complete the same larger wave 4 correction as the wicked triangle scenario. ---- the idea i've got displayed on my chart is the one i favor the most of these 3 as of this moment, but my bias is very liquid, and can change if the chart tells me a different story along the way. ✌
by notoriousbids
7
btc 2-26 (bull case)good evening ~ after further assessing the wave structure and observing the weekend move - i've gotta lean slightly bullish just based on what i am currently seeing here. while my short term bear case is still possible, the probability of it is a lot lower than what i am currently presenting here tonight. ---- this case would be the beginning stages of wave D of my "Wicked Triangle" case which i shared a few days ago via: ---- long term count (from the triangles perspective) ---- and it would look a little something like this on the smaller frames: could also come up in 5 waves; both would be perfectly valid. time will tell what this move turns into, for now we just gotta take it a day at a time. ---- if we are indeed playing out the wicked triangle, then things will get very complex as we continue moving along. consider this a rough draft of a work in progress. it's also possible that this a-b-c turns into a wave B\2 setting us up for an impulsive move to the downside instead. via something like this: or a 3 wave move via: we take it a day at a time, and see how things look like as the move progresses. ---- ps. i'd like to be very clear - while i might be short term bearish at times, i'm very bullish on crypto in the long term. ps2. i am still hanging out in cash until things look a bit more clear. ps3. i shared a ton of data on here just so you guys can see what goes through my mind each time i take a look at a chart. the markets are never linear - remember this. there could be 10, 20 cases at times at play, and it is up to me to eliminate the ones which get invalidated, and present the ones with the highest probability over time. i can't always be right, i'm just a human, so do bear with me while i do my best lol.
by notoriousbids
17
the wild wild westwelcome to the wild wild west, where anything goes lol --- despite this wavy move up today, i still have this feeling that we aren't done correcting yet- from this particular perspective, i am looking at the move between yesterday and today as an expanded flat into a wave B which would imply that we have a wave C to go to the downside. i very well could be wrong here, and the bottom might just be in, but it's a vibe i'm getting that makes me think otherwise. wave c target = 31.6k
Short
by notoriousbids
8
Uptrend still intact.This is a chart of the total crypto market cap on the monthly. It's clear to see we are still in an up trend, but will it hold? The entire market is showing a bearish divergence on the RSI but we have previously had a strong bounce off off this level. If the market does a similar thing this time we should be in for a strong bounce up. The question remaining is will it make new highs or rollover and go lower? Stay tuned to find out. If the monthly RSI can break through the resistance at about 76 then I believe we will. Lets keep an eye on it and see the close for February, then the next couple months and see where we are in April. At that point there will be more information for us to asses going forward. * Never buy and sell assets according to the news*
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by WeAreSat0shi
1
call me wildcall me wild, but im going to roll my +1000% short into a 100x long at my red target. this is something i don't usually do, but the market has given me this gift, and i am going to attempt to multiply it 😅. ---- so in my morning post i targeted the red line on my chart via: i did not expect us to come down here so quickly, but that's the beauty of this market, gotta expect the unexpected. if i'm right about this, 34.5k will be the bottom of wave 5 of Wave (1) of a higher degree, after which we should in theory see a 3 wave retracement into a larger wave (2) before further continuation to the downside. now it is very possible that we don't see this bounce, but instead see a full blown capitulatory event down into the crypto abyss (to around 24k would be my best guess) - so be ready for it if it was to happen! ---- ps. stop is tighter than all of the longs who are panic selling right now.
by notoriousbids
18
btc 2-23 update pt.2good evening humans ~ a ton of people are starting to turn bearish for some odd reason 🤷‍♀️ time for a little bounce to shake things up. ---- we seem to have completed 5 waves down into a sub wave 1 of the primary wave (5). should see a little bounce that retraces 65~78.6% (potentially 88.70% if things get really heated) of todays drop before continuation to the downside. expect it~ ----- most people turn bullish at peaks, and turn bearish at bottoms don't be those people. ✌
by notoriousbids
2
btc 2-23 update morning ~ my expanding diagonal was invalidated, but the 0.382 wave 4 target still sits over here in my bear post from yesterday, if you look closesly, i had a burgundy box around it, and we are here today. the key is how it came up here, through a 5-3-5, which is an abc, rather than an impulse. it can expand higher, and invalidate this bear idea easily - so tight stop on this swing. a push above my 100% extension, will likely send it much higher, and confirm a bullish breakout. w5 target = 34.5k
by notoriousbids
4
"The Bullish Argument".People often ask me, Elo are you bullish or bearish? And I always think to myself, why would I be bullish or bearish? Why can't I just be both equally O.o? Wolfish m8, I reply. ------ The argument against my bear case is this wicked triangle. It is one of the rarest moves in the markets, happens every 1 in 1000 setups. Usually fails Very hard to predict. ----- That being said, if we are going to play out this freaky triangle, we're going to have to see some bullish momentum enter into the markets in the next 24~48 hours, otherwise this house of cards is going to continue falling apart. 🔺
by notoriousbids
17
"the trials will continue".the long squeeze continues, as longs get frantically pushed out of the market. talked about it in my last video, and it's been playing out word for word since we topped out at $45924.5. ---- what am i seeing here? an expanding diagonal for the fifth wave of the primary third of this local impulse. ---- >fear\greed index sits at 20 right now, i'd like to see it at about 10 by the time we bottom. >next dip will really scare the majority, forcing them to panic sell whatever positions they have left for a loss. >that is when a larger bounce will take place. >it will be short lived >it will get rejected >the majority will get stopped out before btc finds a significant bottom closer to 32k. >very few will have the courage to buy down there. ---- ps. it's possible my fifth wave will only be wave (A), which would imply 2 more waves to go, and a deeper move than most humans currently can fathom. ✌
by notoriousbids
3
btc 2-22 update ~good morning ~ btc seemed to have bounced off my level from yesterday almost perfectly. --- i see two paths from here: the first path implies that we are still in the midst of working on a 5 wave impulse to the downside, and we are currently in a wave 4 \\ will begin a wave 5 to around 34k before we see a mean retracement. the second path implies that 5 waves down has been indeed completed, and we have begun a mean retracement to around 42k before further downside ensues. --- on 2\25, max pain on expiring derebit options sits at 40k (on $1.5b worth of premium), which gives us a higher likelihood to play out the mean retracement. though, when everyone expects something to happen, it almost certainly never does. be cautious, and expect the unexpected 💸
by notoriousbids
4