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BITCOIN The correction is coming to an end. Fractal with 2019/20A month ago I first suggested the idea that the current correction may be another Bear Cycle and that as Bitcoin gets more institutionalized and achieves further adoption, these 'smoother' Bear Cycles may be the norm from now on: This time I take it a step further and compare the 2021/22 correction with that of 2019/20. Now, I need to state the obvious before we begin, that 2020 had the Black Swan of the COVID outbreak, an (anomaly) event that only happens once in 100 years and can't be comparable to anything we have in our samples. However even if we filter this out, we find interesting similarities between the two periods. Using the Gaussian Channel, we get a better sense of the cyclical behavior of phases and the net volume indicator on the stages. Both fractals initially made a slight break below the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), recovered but later broke again below it significantly. Only when the price recovered both the 1W MA50 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), was the recovery confirmed and the new parabolic rally of 2020 could begin. At the moment it seems BTC is in that stage of attempting to break above this MA zone. Notice also the importance of Net Volume in all of this. Even before they reached their respective peaks, the volume started to descend. In 2020, the big volume spike started around the time Bitcoin broke about that MA zone I mentioned (1W MA50 - 1D MA200). It seems like such a big volume spike is needed in order to say with some degree of certainty that Bitcoin has resumed the bullish trend towards new All Time High. So what do you think about this analysis? Are such corrections the new norm of a Bear Cycle and if so can 2020 be a guide for 2022? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
26
BITCOIN Inverse Head & Shoulders target $56k based on the passBitcoin has bottomed out, completing the correction that started after the November 10 2021 All Time High (ATH) as it recently broke above not only its 1D MA50 but also the natural barrier of the Lower Highs trend-line as I showed on this analysis 10 days ago: The 1D MA50 is holding as a Support and this is forming an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, which is a formation seen on market bottoms. In BTC's recent history on the 1D time-frame, when similar patterns broke out to the upside, they targeted the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. In particular, this chart shows three prior formations (not all exactly core IH&S but we can use the analogy) that after the Resistance broke, hit the 2.0 Fib extension. This level is currently at $55900. Notice also how on all four patterns, the break-out leg displayed the same aggressive 1D RSI sequence (Channel). We can go even further back and see a November 2020 formation that also reached its 2.0 Fib on an aggressive leg: So what do you think? Do you agree with this pattern that Bitcoin's next medium-term target is its 2.0 Fib at $55.9k? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
16
BITCOIN What if we're just in the 2nd historic cycle?This is an idea I've been meaning to do for some time as I was going through some comparisons of Fibonacci levels within Bitcoin's long-term Cycles. The one rough constant I found within Cycles historically that may change the scene as we know it is the number 2.6. Until now, this appears to be the number of times that the phases since August 2015 are longer than their respective before that date. I will go into more detail what I mean by that. * The 1st rally phase from July 2010 to the June 2011 High can be compared with the 1st rally phase of August 2015 to the December 2017 High. The latter phase is roughly 2.6 times longer than the former * The Pull-back phase of June 2011 to October 2011 is comparable to the Pull-back phase of December 2017 to December 2018. The latter phase is roughly 2.6 times longer than the former As a result we can assume that these two form the start of two separate MEGA CYCLES, instead of the traditional notion that BTC is already on its 4th Cycle. If we keep the same constant of the Cycle 2 separate phases being 2.6 times longer than their respective phases of Cycle 2 then we can assume that: * Bitcoin is currently on the 2nd Rally Phase of Cycle 2 which will be 2.6 times longer than the one of Cycle 1, thus lasting until June 2024! How how can it go? Well based on Cycle 1, whose peak was within the 1.382 and 1.5 Fibonacci extensions, that can be anywhere within $125k - $220k! * The Bear market of Cycle 1 is from December 2013 to August 2015, which is longer that the pull-back phase, thus 'feeling' more natural to be called 'Bear market'. Similarly the Bear Market of Cycle 2 should be 2.6 times longer and extend up to December 2028! I know this is the first time it is argued that Bitcoin might be in just its 2nd historic Cycle but in my opinion it does offer a fresh perspective and certainly food for thought. Do you agree with such a theory? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
33
BITCOIN repeating the July-Aug 2022 recovery. 50k next?Since the end of January, I've been comparing the correction since the November High to that of May 2021: That chart was on the 1W time-frame. Using the 4H time-frame this time, we can see how the recovery that started on the January 24 bottom is very similar to that of July - August 2021. As you see, both broke above their 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and made a top on the 1.1236 Fibonacci extension level from their last High of the correction sequence. That peak led by a Head and Shoulders pattern broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) which has been supporting on the long-term. This is as far as the current recovery sequence has gone as it brings us to today. The July - August recovery, consolidated within its Ichimoku Cloud but eventually formed the new Support that took it to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension before the next pull-back occurred. The MACD sequences are so far equally similar. Does this mean that BTC can once again find Support on its Ichimoku? And if so is the 1.5 Fibonacci the next target? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
12
BITCOIN The consolidation phase cheat sheetBasically, I've applied this methodology with the cyclical Fibs before but this time I've taken it a step further plotting all consolidation phases within a Bitcoin cycle based on the Fibonacci levels. Astonishingly, those are very consistent and tend to repeat themselves in each Cycle with high preciseness. As this chart shows on the 1W time-frame, each Cycle has once consolidation phase below the 0.5 Fibonacci level (green region), one above the 0.5 Fibonacci level (blue region) and the last one around the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (yellow region). According to that model, BTC is currently on the 1.5 Fib consolidation phase, which based on the previous two Cycles, is the final accumulation before the ultimate parabolic rally to the peak of the Cycle. What price can that peak be at? Well this can be answered using the Fibonacci extension levels themselves. In the previous two Cycles, the Cycle Peak was priced at just above the 2.272 Fibonacci extension (measured as 0.0 Fib the bottom of the Cycle and 1.0 Fib the top of the previous Cycle). Oddly enough, this is roughly what the Fib measurements of the last consolidation phase indicate, which marks the peak on its 2.5 Fib extension (0.0 Fib the bottom of the consolidation and 1.0 Fib the top). Assuming that this pattern will continue to replicate itself as it did in the previous Cycles, we can project the next Cycle peak to roughly be within the 2.272 Fib extension of the prior peak and cycle bottom ($ 210k) and the 2.5 Fib extension of the final consolidation phase ($ 250k). How accurate do you think this model is? Do you also think that the new cyclical peak will be in the 210 -250k region? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
24
BTCUSD bullish outlookHello traders, let's take a look at the technical aspect of BTC. BTCUSD was moving in a descending channel for weeks before reaching the low at around 32890.00. BTC surged on Monday and broke out of this falling channel after Tesla announced close to $2 Billion worth of holdings in Bitcoin. On 8 hour timeframe, we see that it got stopped at a 200 Moving Average. I expect bullish momentum to resume after some little retracement towards the 100 Moving Average. I will look for long positions with first target towards 50000. Please support this idea with likes if you find this helpful. If you have different opinion, please feel free to share in the comment section below.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Forexintelligence_NA
BITCOIN This unique cyclical RSI pattern shows $100k by summerThis is Bitcoin on the 4D time-frame. I have used this chart frame as it accurately displays a unique RSI formation which since August 2017 can help at identifying some distinct recurring cycles outside of the traditional historic ones on its parabolic growth curve. As you see, the measurement from a unique RSI Higher Highs pattern which forms on BTC's last High before a price peak, is approximately within 570 and 590 days. If the same sequence is repeated then the next pre-peak High should come in mid-August 2022. Assuming a modest (for BTC's standards) rise is followed, then the price could reach the $100k psychological benchmark by then. On a (much) more optimistic scenario, if BTC follows the late 2020 rally pattern, we can see Fib 1.0 from the Fibonacci Channel break. In that case, even a extension on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level is technically possible, though much less likely within the current Halving Cycle. So what do you think about this unique 4D RSI pattern? Is $100k within reach based on this model? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
52
BITCOIN vs USDT shows exactly what is happening right nowThis chart displayes BTCUSD (orange trend-line) against the USDT Dominance (grey trend-line). Naturally it offers the strongest correlation, even a better display than the DXY comparisons that I normally do. As you see even though the patterns on the two are analogous and naturally symmetrical, Bitcoin is currently outpacing the same way it did in early January 2021 and early October 2021. This overperformance is the reason BTC made an All Time High (ATH) in November, while USDT.D didn't reach as low as the February 2021 low. When this divergence occurs, a strong rally follows. Are you expecting new All Time High based on this? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
62
BITCOIN Only the 1D MA50 left to break to confirm the uptrend.This is an update to last week's analysis on Bitcoin's potential to turn bullish again within its 12-month Channel Up: The buyers have made the first decisive move towards restoring the long-term bullish trend as the Lower Highs trend-line that is practically holding since the November 10 2021 All Time High (ATH) broke yesterday in emphatic fashion. Note that as we discussed, the correction phase since November has been very similar with that of April - July 2021 so far. During that sequence, after the Lower Highs trend-line broke, BTC also broke the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) within the same week and that was the final barrier before the aggressive August - November rally to new ATH. So what's your take on this? Will the 1D MA50 break and if so will it confirm a long-term uptrend? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
22
*URGENT WARNING FOR BITCOIN!*Bitcoin is attempting for the third week to close a weekly candle below the .618 Fib level. We are also trading below the EMA Ribbons which is a sign of weakness. The TD Sequential displayed a red 9 roughly a month ago which often indicates a bottom. This time the bottom was not found at that exact level. It was easy to spot by viewing the descending MFI. Bitcoin is also trading in a large head and shoulders pattern which is a really bearish pattern. We also have a one-body weekly candlestick formation which is another bearish signal. If the week does not close above the previous week this pattern will be valid and the price of Bitcoin is most likely to plummet. The pain should stop at the .786 Fib level which is located at a large support level which is found at 29-24k. Bitcoin is also trading below large VPVR nodes which means that we lost large critical levels of support. This can be seen by the decreasing buying volume and the increasing selling volume. The fact that buyers aren't stepping in at this price level indicates that further downside could be highly likely. The only bullish divergence found in this chart is the weekly MFI which is indicating a buy signal. I do not take this signal seriously due to the fact that other indicators do not support it. Therefore this bullish divergence on the MFI is less likely to play out. If support is not mounted above the EMA Ribbons confirmed by volume and bullish divergence on the MFI Bitcoin is not bullish. I am looking at 29-24k$ for BTC. Best case scenario is a break of 40k which is less likely to occur. *WARNING* This thread is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. Thank you for reading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Patriick2jz
5
BITCOIN - Weekly - More pain to come Bitcoin - Weekly - As previously posted bitcoin peaked around 69k and landed down to this nice weekly demand level of 30k.. On monthly and weekly chart, we can see a clean double top reversal pattern which is calling for further downside once 30k is broken. My analysis is based on technicals, correlations and fundamentals so just because I'm showing more downside for bitcoin coming on the charts doesn't mean this is all my analysis is based on. One of the key factors for my analysis is the coming fed rate hikes this year as inflation is getting out of control in the US and Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and other major investment banks are forecasting the federal reserve to hike rate more 6 times this year. In combination to that, I see the US dollar rising (for a short time) due to these rate hikes and cryptos are priced in US dollars so a stronger dollar will ultimately bring cryptos down. Additionally, the mass adoption of crypto's in general has caused a lot of people to recklessly invest in cryptos and become bias, complacent and greedy with their crypto investments. Markets has a funny way to humble people like that. Now I'm a big supporter of cryptos and I see them growing bigger in the near future but that doesn't mean cryptos can't drop down a lot for a deep correction. Doesn't matter if big institutions have bitcoin holdings or if El-Salvador keeps buying the dips.. they will suffer for their recklessness and FOMO. Patience is a virtue and only the calm, collected, unemotional, well-informed trader/investor can make and keep huge returns from any investment. Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. I am patiently waiting for bitcoin to land into a monthly demand zone around 10-12k before loading up heavy on them, at the same time I will be waiting for the US Dollar to crash later this year, so once I see the dollar crashing and bitcoin reaching for its monthly demand zone.. and there's blood in the streets.. That's when I buy.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by abm-trading
2
BITCOIN & an old DOW fractal show holding the 1W MA100 is keyBitcoin almost hit last week the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and that was enough to provide a rebound, at least on the short-term. The importance of this trend-line as a long-term Support if BTC is to recover and post a really to a new All Time High (ATH) can be further emphasized by a similar fractal formed on Dow Jones in 1994. The periods of comparison is 2020 - 2022 on BTC and 1993 - 1995 on Dow Jones. As shown on their respective 1W charts, both started off after a flash crash and recovered initially on a Channel Up. Gradually they peaked, forming the 1-2-3-4 pattern, which eventually hit the 1W MA100. Notice how even the RSI sequences are identical. Dow Jones held the 1W MA100 as Support for 3 straight weeks and then after breaking the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it never looked back. Can we see a similar rally to ATH on Bitcoin as well? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
61
BITCOIN close to fulfil the conditions for a new 3 month ralllyFollowing last week's update on the 1W time-frame where the argument was made why Bitcoin would most likely make a bottom at the Higher Lows trend-line of this long-term Channel Up, the price has indeed made a Low and started to rebound: Currently, this 1D chart, shows how close BTC is to fulfil the conditions of a new 3 month rally as per the last June - July bottom sequence. As you see, there is a Lower Highs trend-line involved, which in both cases started before the 1D Death Cross (when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crossed below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line)). In the case of July, when the price broke above this trend-line, there was only the 1D MA50 left to break and confirm the rally, which is where our focus should be, as Bitcoin has been trading below the 1D MA50 since November 17 2021. Another test of the Channel Up bottom before the bullish break-out, wouldn't be unrealistic at all. So what do you think about the importance of the Lower Highs trend-line and the 1D MA50? Will Bitcoin start a new rally once it breaks those levels? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
3
BITCOIN's LMACD model from 2020 was spot on. 100k still in play?This is an update to a May 2020 analysis that I posted when Bitcoin was still valued at $9000, recovering from the March 2020 COVID crash. It offered great insight on the concept of Diminishing Returns and even though at the time quite a few were familiar with the Theory of Lengthening Cycles, I introduced the LMACD model that put everything in context. Click play and draw your own conclusions: First of all look at how accurately the price got rejected in April 2021 at the top of Bitcoin's historical Parabolic Channel. The reason was that within the current Cycle, the late 2020 - early 2021 rise was 'a little too high too soon'. The recovery after July 2021 and the new All Time High in November 2021 confirmed this idea, that April was not the top of the Cycle but got rejected because BTC outpaced itself due to the high media-exposure and reached the top of its growth Channel. Now the price, after trading practically sideways for almost a full year, is now normalized and the current levels represent again its fair value. The LMACD on this 1W chart, truly puts everything in context. For a more detailed analysis, click on my May 2020 post. The idea behind it is that the Diminishing Returns are illustrated on the LMACD which tops and bottoms each time on a different Triangle while BTC tops and bottoms within its Parabolic Channel. See Triangle 1 (blue), Triangle 2 (red) and Triangle 3 (yellow), which the LMACD entered in February 2021. There is still a pending top to be made on this Yellow Triangle 3 and the LMACD is still far from it, meaning that the Cycle could indeed be lengthened once more with returns diminished and it may very well top towards the end of 2022. That means that BTC's psychological landmark of $100k may still be in play and may not even be the Cycle's Top. So what do you think about the LMACD Model? Does it 'owe' Bitcoin one last top at $100000 before the Cycle peak? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BNC:BLX
by TradingShot
38
₿ITCOIN - BEGINNING OF AN UPTREND OR MORE DOWNSIDE TO COME 💸Bitcoin bounced off the support zone which coincides with an ascending trendline and is now retracing towards the short-term resistance zone. A break above the resistance will confirm bullish bias and the price will rally towards Target 1 (55,000) initially. There is still a possibility that the price could drop back to the trendline support before gathering bullish momentum to break the resistance and rally towards our target. Should the price break below the trendline, we could see 26000 before initiating new buy setups.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DennisDims
Bitcoin vs S&P: Is Bitcoin Leading The Market?There has been a lot of talk about the Bitcoin correlation with the S&P. So, I wanted to see what the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P has been over the last few months. Here is what I saw: The scale of this charts comparison isn't super important. But the general movements and relative time frames are super interesting. imo Sept 29th - Oct 20th: Bitcoin started a 21 day move to the upside. This move took Bitcoin to a new all time high on Oct 20th. For the first 14 days of this run, the S&P remains range bound. Oct 13th - Nov 8th: S&P makes a 21 day run to new all time high. During this time Bitcoin generally ranges. However it briefly peaks to a slightly new all time high on Nov 8, 9 and 10. Nov 10th - Present: Bitcoin maintains a downward trajectory. Nov 10th - Jan 4th, 2022: The S&P is generally range bound, but trends upwards, peaking into new all time highs a few times. Reaching its peak on Jan 4th. Jan 4th - Present: S&P begins and maintains a downward trajectory; 55 days after Bitcoin began its downward move. It could be argued that Bitcoin is actually leading the S&P. But how? It raises some fascinating questions: Could it be that the crypto market is evolving rapidly enough, that it actually now moves in front of a behemoth like the S&P? Is Bitcoin becoming a rapid bellwether of global market sentiment? Will we see another diversion in the short to medium term, with Bitcoin leading the recovery move, while the S&P continues to correct?
SP:SPX
by white_fox_crypto