Bitcoin available scenarios 💹 © Alt-Season®🎉For me , there are two scenarios ahead of Bitcoin
1️⃣ The price will reach a new ATH and start falling from a level that only the market maker knows (Diamond) , which after the new ATH, we should look for signs of falling in lower time frames.
2️⃣ The price should be rejected from this QM level (the level in which it is located), which is necessary for Bitcoin to be sidelined for at least a month or two to clear the market maker's purchases.
📌 Fail Analysis: price goes to higher levels ( more than three-month candle ATR) without any consolidation
🥂 Still enjoy the alt season at this level
Bitcoinshort
I Can't Believe It. I've Gone Short on Bitcoin!Traders,
True to form, though I rarely do this anymore, I’ve gone short on Bitcoin. My entry was immediate after hitting that resistance level at $60500 which I discussed in the last post.
Target will be $48,300
Stop out will be about $63,000
RRR is nearly 5/1
I am confident here so I’ve risked nearly 50% of the trading portfolio. But I will definitely be taking profits at every level (see chart above) along the way.
Best,
Stew
Correction on BTC soonFor the larger Fibonacci retracement, the key levels appear to be 0.382 ($42,908.91), 0.5 ($39,779.67), and 0.618 ($36,650.43). These levels are derived from a significant swing low to a significant swing high, often used to predict the extent of a retracement after a market move.
The smaller Fibonacci retracement levels are not explicitly labeled but are likely drawn from a more recent and minor swing high and low, which traders might use for short-term trading opportunities or to fine-tune entries and exits.
The candlestick patterns indicate a consolidation phase after a strong uptrend. The latest candles have shorter bodies with long wicks on both ends, suggesting indecision in the market. This type of price action can often precede a reversal or a continuation of the trend, depending on subsequent candle formations and supporting volume.The presence of the long wick candles at the top of an uptrend may suggest a potential for price reversal, often referred to as 'shooting stars' in candlestick terminology. However, without clear bearish confirmation following these candles, it is not a definitive indication.
The liquidity zones marked suggest areas where traders expect price to react. The upper liquidity zone is likely an area where traders anticipate sell orders might be clustered, and the lower liquidity zone suggests an area where there may be a concentration of buy orders.
Bitcoin can drop to 49694 USDBTC 1D chart presents two sets of Fibonacci retracement levels. The thicker lines correspond to the broader price range, with the key 0.618 Fibonacci level situated around $50,800. Potential further supports are at the 1.272 and 1.414 Fibonacci extension levels, which lie around $49,300 and $49,100 respectively.
The thinner lines represent a shorter price range, mapping out an ABC correction structure where wave A is the initial downward move, B is a retracement, and a potential wave C could bring the price down to the 1.618 level near $49,694 if the current consolidation resolves to the downside.
Price is currently hovering around the 0.382 level of the shorter Fibonacci range at approximately $51,100, suggesting this area as a current resistance. A breakthrough this level could lead to tests of higher resistance levels.
The RSI is below the 50 mark, indicating bearish momentum, and the MACD is under the zero line, confirming the negative momentum. Monitoring price behavior at these levels will help assess the strength of the bearish trend and potential subsequent price movements.
BITCOIN - 4h breakdown Update to Weekly Outlook 20/02/24'Hello everyone,
just a quick update to Yesterday Weekly outlook..
4h Idea Breakdown chart:
Reasons WHY Short in next 0 to 48 hours:
1 - is Lower Close then 2
2 - is Highier Close then 3, BUT it have Lower Candle High
3 - have Lower Close then 2 and Last Green Candle,
BUT in the same time have Highier Candle High
__________________________________________________
These are Reasons WHY I believe we are about to Short in next 0-36(48) hours at least
& WHY I was yesterday slightly more bearish then bullish, but since it developed as it did, it gave me more confirmation and confidence that we are about to go Lower (Short market).
Aswell, if you decide to take a trade, DONT FORGET TO USE STOP LOSS, for your own good.
Hopefully, this helps some of you with your perception of market.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
Bitcoin With the Expected Pullback but How Far?Bitcoin has given us our expected pullback and now we must look at the support side to study which supports will hold price and for how long?The first option, as of this post, is that the pullback will only last till Tuesday (U.S. stock markets are closed Monday) and then the buyers come back via BTC ETFs. If this is the case, it may also mean that our RED ascending trendline, which currently sits at around 50,300, may hold. If our RED ascending TL holds, there is a likelihood we go to 56k before more pullback.
Our second scenario is that the TL breaks and we drop to 48k before more buyers jump in. This is my hope because it represents the best technical options. I’d like to see a retest and hold of our 48k price level. And if we hold, I see the upward longer-term trend continuing for some time.Of course, we could always break 48k support. This is our third scenario. If 48k support breaks, we do have a lot of support underneath us and I don’t see us dropping much below 42k before demand kicks back in. Remember, ETFs are currently demanding 12x+ more than BTC miners can provide. This is on a liquidity ratio of 1 to 4, meaning that something like less than 25% of all Bitcoin in current circulation is even available for trading. Simple math here suggests a near impossibility to drop to 20k or lower again as some analysts are suggesting. Even 31.6k, as I had previously suggested (this was before ETFs were actually confirmed and approved) is now somewhat of a bygone dream. But with current U.S. geo-political policy as disastrous, devastating, disgusting, and destructive as it currently is, it remains a possibility. Anything that brings the price to that level will almost certainly be news-driven at that point in my opinion.
Other indicators that we must consider are the strength of the U.S. dollar and the status of the U.S. stock markets. The dollar (below) continues its rise in strength to that 105.6 target level as predicted many months ago. Once achieved, back down we’ll go. Dollar weakness is almost always reflected in market price which then trickles over into our crypto space. But even more so does this last part ring true with the advent of BTC ETFs in the space.
If the dollar does as I have expected and drops once it hits or nears that 105.6 resistance level, the meltup that I predicted a year and a half ago now, will continue onwards and upwards to even greater highs. Many markets and indices have already achieved all-time highs. This melt-up should continue into mid-late summer. But somewhere before September you can expect it all to end and come crashing down. Bitcoin would then follow at that point but from what price level and to what extent is yet obviously unknown. I do believe Bitcoin reaches at least 80k by mid-late summer. Any sort of crash from that point could bring us quickly back down to 48k or lower. But, I don’t want to speculate price action too dogmatically that far into the future. What I am fairly sure of is a blow-off top (already happening in U.S. stock markets) and then a fairly severe pullback (potential crash) sometime around or before September of this year. This is what I am attempting to prepare myself and those who follow me for.
Now lastly, in terms of my current trades, I have taken profits on most and been stopped out of others at or just above break even. I mainly did a just-above-break-even SL for psychological benefit as it shows green on my spreadsheet (insert smiley emoji). Once I have ascertained to a greater degree where this current pullback will find support, I will begin looking for new entries again.
Short term wave C short Bitcoin playBitcoin extended a bit more in 5th wave of wave (a) in blue since my last update.
Despite this, overall trade idea remains same as before i.e. to short the blue wave (c).
Alternatively, but less likely, blue wave (c) could also be force counted as completed. So trade with caution and managed risk.
BTC - Follow THIS Path to the HALVING📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈
If you have been following me for a while, you'll know I've been saying we are trading in the opening moments of a new bullish cycle. I've also referred to this as Elliot Wave Theory Wave 1.
According to my plan, this is the first impulse wave towards the upside. But the upwards wave are always followed by correction waves; a natural part of any cycle. I expected the second impulse wave (2-3) to happen very close to or just before the BTC halving, which is set to happen in April. This is based on a previous analysis that I did where we made a conclusion based on the price action of the previous BTC halvings before, during and after.
👉 Macro Analysis
Bitcoin is due for that 30% correction / pullback. Even dropping to lower 30K zone would still be a lower high, classic Elliot Wave Theory before the next upwards impulse wave, which is the biggest ( wave 2). This will fall exactly on the white diagonal trendline, which is our support zone.
👉 Technical Indicator Analysis
Our technical indicator is still bullish, but showing "Overbought". In a higher timeframe, this usually means it can carry n for some time - but a pullback is imminent before another impulse upwards.
NOTE that I am BULLISH on BTC. We're in the opening moments of a new bullish cycle, but there are pullbacks and corrections in upward cycles - and I'm expecting that we're currently trading in impulse wave 0-1.
If you found this content helpful, please remember to hit like and subscribe and never miss a moment in the markets.
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CryptoCheck
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P
BTCUSD, Are we going to face 35% Correction ?! (Local View)BTCUSD, Are we going to face 35% Correction ?! (Local View)
Let's take a look at local movements on INDEX:BTCUSD .
Since last post Bitcoin moved in our favor, reached 38,500$.
We have a strong bounce here, which is heading towards upper 40s as long as daily close was above big red candle.
There is a probability, that Bitcoin is going to draw lower high which can be anywhere from 38.2 to 61.8 (Golden Pocket) Fib. In confluence we have several magnets at this range.
Possible stop losses around 43,500$
Fair Value Gap around 44,500$. Possible liquidations Across top 3 exchanges (Binance, OKX, Bybit) totaling around 4.0 Bln. USD. (This number covers last 30 Days Data)
Hence we should take into consideration, that huge amount of liquidity is sitting down in the previous reaccumulation zone. (Suggesting to check out Liquidity Heatmap . Putting link because I am not able to add screenshot.)
- - - - - - - - -
Next I want to mention one weird thread I bumped into on Twitter.
It’s about HTX (ex Huobi), which is owned by Justin Sun. They turned off their proof-of-reserves system, what hints about their insolvency. Onchain analysis say that they have problems with ETH holdings.
Also this is not connected to only HTX, things are being wrong with TUSD and stUSDT (Stacked USDT receipt on TRON Network).
For further details about this event please read thread from adamscochran on twitter . Hence there was around 600 Mln. USDT transfer to JustlandDao yesterday.
In the end, I want to mention, that there is no 100% accurate analysis.
We are dealing with probabilities, just with analysis we are shifting probabilities to our favor.
Best Wishes.
BITCOIN - Weekly Outlook 13/02/24'Hello everyone,
hope you guys doing great.
So those who follow know, that my close monitoring and breaking down chart payed off...
Since we was able to recognize that probabilities of reverse shifting and favouring Upside price targets when Price was refusing to go lower under price level I ment in last updates..
So hope everyone bagged some profits already, and if not, its still great time to do right now as we sits just around 50k which is GREAT price for some profit taking for several reason, more about why you can find inside ↓↓↓ ...
As for WHAT Im doing RIGHT NOW - is that I closly follow lower time frame charts 5min/15min and 1h...
Since Im of opinion that we rallied A LOT already and is Tuesday, which following my data shows as a day with the MOST Liquidity reverses (meaning, we go for Sellside liquidity)..
So with that in mind and aswell upcomin US CPI numbers Im alerted that there is highier chance of revisiting Lower prices then sustained rallie on upside.. BUT!! even in this scenario Im thinking that is still possible that price can rallie a bit highier (51k to 51,8k max.) BEFORE reversing... at least for this WEEK!
-- In simple terms, I think we can rallie today up to 51,8k MAX! as a possibility, but Its Low% chance BUT if its happend, IT WILL BE GREAT SHORT ENTRY PRICE for me! --
--- IN THE SAME TIME - I think we are in GREAT SHORT PRICE entry RIGHT NOW, since, we already rallied a LOT, and above ment price is only 2% max.3% highier.. and since its possible we dont get that PERFECT entry area around 51k... it would be SMART to follow lower time frames as I ment, and entry "smaller" position In correct time, before building that short trade more ---
Hopefully, this helps some of you with your perception of market.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
Open your fkin eyes! BTCI see lot of bullish tweet. Lot of leverage longs at top. Lot of big influencers calling for new highs. I have seen this FOMO, this euphoria, this sentiment almost 3 years ago. I remember it. And now i see the same pattern. It's not perfect. But it's pretty the same. When BTC will start to drop? 14-15 Feb. When it will bottom? Mid April. When you seen it? Here. Now save you ass and don't long Bitcoin.
$btc Bitcoin price action still rising in channel....UP or Down?CRYPTOCAP:BTC Bitcoin's price action has remained in this rising channel since around 26000.
Current price: 48100
If price continues to respect this channel expect to find previous resistances: 50600, 53500, 55200
#bitcoin is also spotting a double top with a bearish divergence on the daily timeframe oscillator.
if price cannot rise past current resistances expect price to retest supports at: 47200, 44200, 41800, 39400
Decision point!
BITCOIN Breakdown of Whats Going On - 06/02/2024Hello everyone,
I have to update on update of previous post, to break it down little clearer for some of you, to explain why RIGHT NOW Im very causious...
For that purpose Im going from Highier to Lower timeframes, to get clearer picture of what is the MOST possible at this moment..
So, If we go from 5Day to 4h timeframe, its clearly to see that we are "stucked" in consolidation of last 5D candle, which was our "top" of 2023 and we are in process of "accumulation/distribution" either shorts/longs before moving further (as stated yesterday, longer we stay highier, chance of continuation of going highier increasing)...
So as you know, I WAS of opinion, that we should go lower to swept Sellside liquidity, before moving further... but since FED meeting changed nothing, I HAVE TO stick with my Highier TimeFrame perspective...
And thats it, as presented in Q1 update - Due to previous experience in similar market conditions I should suggest that until nothing change & FED start cutting rates, market will move Highier with Time until this change come!
Breakdown :
5 DAY -
to
1 Day -
On 1Day, we can see much better, that we first swept Buyside liquidity of that 1st Rectangle consolidation, before we processed to swept Sellside liquidity... BUT NOW, we came EXACTLY BACK where we WAS, which SHOULDNT be CASE if we continuing LOWER with confidence...
So, we HAVE TO go to 4hr, to make "better and clearer" guess of whats happening...
4h -
So , I added 1 more layer of rectange... which is LAST WEEK RANGE...
You can see, its relatively tight with its own "consolidation" (i put green cut line between for better visibility)... and YESTERDAY, we firstly swept highs, then lows and now we proceeding to going back up.. in this case, IF WE ARE ABLE to MOVE ABOVE that FED HIGH I would expect with high probability of moving further up, ONCE WE GET ABOVE OUR CONSOLIDATION BOX, both of them!
-- One more 4hr chart with SMA , which I do not use as "trading tool", but in my obsertvation-> When they are stacked like now and we moving in tight range in same time.. WHEN Price BREAK above/under them with "test" - in most cases it continuos in that direction for pro-longed period of time.
Hopefully, this helps some of you with your perception of market.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
Bitcoin in February 2024BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P
Local targets for Bitcoin in February 2024
Possible Targets and explanation idea
➡️12H timeframe Fib is relevant. After bounce from 27 zone we can see drop to 40300
➡️40300 is a key level what we need to hold forming H&S pattern on 4H
➡️Target for this pattern will be over 46-48k and liquidations over 5 billion
➡️Above we will test again Montly FVG
➡️If we will not hold 40300 road will be open to 36600
➡️Market Mood indicator in hope zone on 12H need to see "depression" grey zone
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
---
• Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓
• For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BITCOIN - MAJOR CORRECTION: STILL -20% LEFT TO GO (TARGET 32K)Bitcoin is correcting. It is as simple as that. Here is my input on things:
What is on the chart? (Follow the steps)
1) Price rallied back in October 2023, breaking the high of the 13th of July 2023. Throughout this breakout a large untouched daily FVG was formed.
2) Following the rally, price slowed down and created an accumulation structure which plays a huge role in this analysis. LIQUIDITY ! This price structure presents a huge target for bears. We pair this idea with the fact that price is currently in a premium area. Where is the price equilibrium located? Right within this accumulation structure.
3) This is a major range that also plays a fundamental role in this analysis. POWER OF 3 .
This is a known price action theory (Power of 3) constituted of 3 (no shit) steps: accumulation, manipulation and distribution. Why is it relevant here? Well open your eyes. We had our accumulation, we had our false break (manipulation) and now what is left? The distribution.
4) I am pairing the price action analysis with some Ichimoku Kinko Hyo technicals. Here we have 3 major bearish signals shown on the daily Ichimoku: break of the Tenkan and Kijun, a Tenkan/Kijun crossover and a Kumo twist (these are all bearish signals and you're free to go learn about Ichimoku Kinko Hyo in your own time).
5) Here we have an even more significant bearish signal/confirmation: the break of the weekly Tenkan + the entry into the daily Kumo meaning price didn't bounce on the Kumo which should act as support if we were to have been bullish.
6) Price closing on the border of the Kumo is never a good sign. This also gave place to a daily FVG that needs to be respected for the continuation of the correction + coupled with the low of the prior range which serves as our BOS level. Metaphorically, Bitcoin is on the edge of a cliff, with a pack of bears creeping up on it and it can't go any higher so it can either jump or take on the pack of bears. Statistically I think it would rather jump to see another day (assuming beyond the cliff there's water so it survives).
7) EQUILIBRIUM . This can be used as a partial target and price would finally be at the doors of the discounted area!
8) The 0.702 level + the July 2023 high + the daily FVG represents in my opinion the best possible entry for a long run position. This analysis would be a long setup if it weren't for the fact that we still have a 20% correction left to do.
As always, I hope you have a wonderful day and make a lot of money! Take care! ;)
BTC MUST TO GO DOWNBased on my latest analysis using the Ichimoku system, I highlighted the levels that #BTC left behind without touching them. As a typical correction after forming a valid high, and seeing a red komu, BTC will see a correction up to 0.618 of the previous downtrend wave, and probably a hunt, and then continue its own way to $35k or finally hunting FWB:27K -$30k
BITCOIN Bearish Wyckoff Distribution 🚨 Supply in ControlWhales have been manipulating Bitcoin in a Wyckoff Distribution schematic since 12/5/23 (before the GBTC and FTX sell off.)
Currently:
🚨 Bitcoin dropped below bottom of Trading Range to create a Sign of Weakness in Phase D.
🚨 Bitcoin flipped the bottom of the Trading Range at $40,150 to resistance and created its final Last Point of Supply for shorts to enter.
🚨 With the CME Gap Fill, GBTC and FTX sell offs, Bitcoin is soon entering Phase E: Supply in Control where everyone realizes there is little chance of a bounce and everyone panic sells.
BTC Update - 25.01.2024 / Short setup4 hour chart:
I am observing the complete nucleation of a downside oof through liquidity withdrawal, rebalancing into FVG zones and internal liquidity withdrawal!
POIs from which to consider continuing shorts on bitokin:
1. From current (High risk but technical factors are all respected, there is rebalancing into 0.5 moves and daily imbalance with ind withdrawal)
2- Imbalance (43927.7 - 45460.2): More justified entry, but not completely sure if price is rebalancing into this POI.
From targets all compression from the lows (37468 - 33224) and monthly FVG as FTA (34076 - 27480)
Still observing patterns to enter, local accumulation phase in the market today!
❗️ Not financial advice, always think with your head