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The Paramount Levels In BitcoinBitcoin is on the fence and could literally go either way. Naturally, this doesn't aid us much in our position decision making. Yet, with the right technical clues we can make sure we enter when we face the highest probability of success in combination with the lowest level of risk. And that's precisely what we'll discuss in this week's analysis. Now, I could give you a check mate argument for either the bulls or the bears. The only thing we know for sure is that the technical setup is conducted in a way that we can anticipate a violent reaction in either direction - as in whatever direction Bitcoin ultimately chooses. But before we go down that road it is paramount to understand that Bitcoin itself has no clue of where it's going. All it's done it to prepare a grand setup for either direction and with a grand explosiveness behind it. Nothing else. For at the end of the day, much of Bitcoin's direction does come down to whether Putin escalates things - and worse come to worst slams that dear nuclear button of his. Hence much of the fate of the markets now come down to crude macros. Bitcoin is clearly in an ascending triangle. So far, so good. There's really nothing to discuss here. A few weeks back, we did get a clear lower bullish red closing on the weekly chart - and at the very local bottom at that, as always. And given the high RSI levels from which this signal sprung, it is clear to us that is defines the very end of a 4th wave correction. Given that it doesn't get stopped out, that is. On the daily chart, however, there are a few key obstacles we need to overcome before we have a "safe" green light to proceed with longs (for the record, nothing is ever safe when it comes to trading and TA - we're simply dealing with game theory and probabilities here). Firstly, we have a symmetrical triangle in the RSI The reason why this is relevant at all is because a breakout from this, which would stem from technical pressure having built up, would be an early clue of a breakout from the ascending price triangle. The extra power from such RSI triangle breakout could easily catapult the price through and beyond its horizontal resistance. At the moment the RSI is literally trading on the RSI triangle resistance on the daily chart. Secondly, throughout this triangle we've already seen textbook rejections of the EMA100 line. With that said, however, the typical playbook is for a gradual decline of MA rejections, thus moving from the EMA50 to the EMA100 and ultimately testing the EMA200 prior to being ready for a breakout. Here, in this case, we saw no such EMA50 action. My point here is rather that once we do push through the EMA100, the next one in line is the EMA200, which just so happens to perfectly align with the triangle resistance. What I expect to see here is at least some sort of price rejection prior to being ready for its breakout. The beautiful part here is how the statistical breakout point - as in two thirds into the triangle - would perfectly align with a minor price rejection prior to pushing through. Basically, my point is this: A breakout of the symmetrical RSI triangle in combination with an ascending price triangle breakout would be the ideal long setup as it'll be not just doubly but "triply" confirmed. In this case the triple comes from the maximally early lower bullish red signal on the weekly RSI (for more details on the RSI and these strategies I advice you to watch the extensive RSI trilogy). However, on the contrary, Bitcoin is by no means out of the bearish bush yet. If the price would struggle to break above this EMA100 line and rather resort to dwelling around the diagonal support, things will swiftly swap to being inherently weak and with a clear bias on the downside. In such case, a break below this triangle support would be an ideal spot for shorts. Just don't forget to apply a tight stoploss as we've already seen a fakeout from this triangle on the downside. And if the lower bullish red signal were to get cancelled out on the weekly chart, then by all means fasten your seat belts. Stopped out LBR signals have a tremendous tendency of plunging the price down steep and aggressively. Neither do I expect this to be any exception. /Long Life Trading
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by LongLifeTrading
1
Short Term Bitcoin Prices => Time for a Healthy Break or Not ... We are following the fastest flow-line (called Max flow-lines on the chart). If we cross the B1-$45855 point before the evening of March 4, we will maintain the maximum upward momentum that could bring prices to around $58,000 before March 15. There are still steps to take to validate this scenario! For the moment let's see how prices will oscillate or deviate from this Max Flow-lines (the Price-Time slopes of these lines are calculated by Physicaleconomics concepts independent of the market geometry). For the moment we are oscillating around the Long-term Moderate Flow-lines . In the short term, we are at the top of the range (red dotted line), prices will have to work this level and after the rapid rise of the last few days, it is time for the markets to breathe in order to resume a sustainable rise in parallel with the hunt of the shorters. In the short term this week, it is likely that we will see a correction between $39,400-$41,100 ( See red-box on the chart) at the end of the week before resume a bullish momentum to regain the Long-Term Moderate Flow-lines (in blue on the chart). Xavier
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by TheoKalia
1
BITCOIN FEBRUARY CRASH - BTC/USD The trendline from the wicks match exactly with 2.272, 2.414 fib extensions and the technical target from the falling wedge. I believe BTCUSD needs to spend some time between 28k - 38k, more so inside 32k - 38k levels. It might also bounce from the upper trend line which coincides with 0.5 0.618 levels, 39 40 is also psychoologically a bouncy level. Another option is around 33k where BTC recently bottomed and it lies inside what I call fibonacci golden pocket between 1.272 - 1.618 levels. Nevertheless here are the targets a little closer. Don't forget that if the top of 44613.68$ is broken the fib extension should be redrawn and all the levels would change slightly. All of this would be invalidated if BTCUSD closes a day above 52k or ends the month over 46.3k. The reason behind 52 is that it is the 0.618 retracement where higher than this means most likely the dead cat bounce scenario will not play, and secondly 46.3k Feb would print a bullish monthly candle BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by KaynakiKaymaki
2
BTC.USD P-Modeling Pt 81-B. Cajun Valley of Black SwansWelcome Hyperspace Travelers.. I have been eagerly awaiting to post this when I felt the time was right... This is Part B of #81. Please See Part A so I can confuse you more. PLEASE SEE IDEA ABOVE BEFORE CONTINUING^^ Or else you simply won't understand the HOW or WHY of this chart. This is the SAME chart as PART A. These are all the SAME fractals used. This Idea is based on a 1 Day Time-frame. Fractal Timing Error Allowance: 2.3 Week. View the Following. __________________________________________ Supporting Charts active are: BTC Dominance - BTC.USD A component of the Fuel: Big Rise in Bonds ---> Big Money rushing to safety.. Panic... Dying Oil.. to new lows on WTI.. Significant Rise in Covid-19 Deaths soon.. See time series snapshots in order to view full picture on each one of these ideas. If you look closely, even the failed charts have useful information if you look closely. And even more so, if you look closer you may realize they all draw to a very unique narrative. _________________________________________________________________________ My biggest catalyst and very crucial component of BTC's black swan event is COVID-19 AND a very very bad sequence of events killing the stock market to fresh lows of $1450 on SPX by election time: You would think BTC would be the "safe haven" but i think differently... I think all channels of exit will be meticulously collapsed. Whatever is about to happen, basically all the important outlets are going to collapse and money will have few places to go. Most will be Eviscerated. Many will just Hold thru the gauntlet. But. IF they were to collapse all at the same time. It would create a global black swan event. A Black Swan Event is a cyclic reset of global asset classes in order to achieve a new baseline shift. Catalysts for the Black Swan Event: ______________________________________ -Wave Two of Covid-19. -Eviction Crisis of 35 Million Americans. -Systemic Bubble Collapse from Horrendous US Presidential and Congressional Policy. -Presidential Transition -Unemployment reaching 20%+ -Major Disruption of Industrial Chains from Covid-19. -Major Disruption to Mining. _____________________________________ Wave Two Trajectory of Deaths from Covid-19: Best Case: 1.5 - 3.5 million dead in USA alone. Worst Case: 5 - 15 million dead in USA alone. The horrid response and ignorant disregard to scientists and their warnings; is going to lead to over a million deaths . UNLESS WE CLOSE DOWN NOW. (which is not going to happen). And I bet a 98% of you will laugh at me as you read this. I already know that. But Just imagine.. These estimates are 1.5% and 3% mortality rate across ALL age groups, including children. ______________________________ SPX Low: $1450 by Mid-November. This idea has us repeating the INVERSE of the FEB-MAR 2020 drop of the SPX, 2x in a row. Please See SPX idea from above again^^ BTC Lows: $955 before by Mid-November being conservative. This idea has us repeating the INVERSE of the 2017-2018 run up to 20k.. So this fractal and path you see laid out before you is not "made up". Its taken from the past data. ______________________________ Major Transition of Power will lead to a Boom in Crypto as we begin the jump into the 4th industrial revolution. This is my prediction for the incoming election and I already know you think it is not going to happen. I believe otherwise. Bernie Sanders will REPLACE Joe Biden and defeat Trump in the 2020 presidential election by a LANDSLIDE victory of almost 80%. Trump will be forcefully removed from the White House after his loss. Mass civil will unfold due to the black swan events. They are coming.. These next few months are going to be legendary, cruel and very sad. If we hit this version of the black swan drop. It will be pure despair. The other model shows a more conservative estimate of mid November. Then by Feb 2021 we will have broken ATH's on BTC. This is going to be a VERY vicious cycle of moves... Everyone knew the day was coming when crypto would be accepted. That time is extremely near. I believe in cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. But those that have big hands, want the "godlike prices". And they are going to get it... And it will actualize with a move that once, seemed impossible but actually did finally materialize. Meh what do I know.. I am just a silly scrub with crayons.. :) Eye bleed factor is a 10. Buckle Up... The spring into the 4th industrial revolution is upon us.. But first. The Global Black Swan Event.. Happy Hunting.. Welcome to the Paradigm Shift, Glitch420
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Glitch420
13
Bitcoin Sell the Pivotal Value.Bitcoin - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 41488 (stop at 42323) Daily signals are bearish. Bearish divergence can be seen on the daily chart (the chart makes a higher high while the oscillator makes a lower high), often a signal of exhausted bullish momentum, or at least a correction lower. 41575 has been pivotal. A break of bespoke support at 41500, and the move lower is already underway. Our profit targets will be 39222 and 38322 Resistance: 43000 / 44000 / 44500 Support: 42000 / 41500 / 41000
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Signal_Centre1