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Bubble theory 🫧 BTC minersThere are two type of bubbles and they burst for different reasons? A bubble is when too many people hold something and what has driven prices up, now as a force works against them. There's a saying. Buy things when everyone is a skeptic. Sell when a taxi driver starts talking about investing. There are no more buyers left on top. First bubble is when volume dries up as the price hits extremes. Second is when peoples attitudes or sentiment, or opinions change to bearish. And that can happen over night, like a switch. It's interesting and finance is a social science. Some bubbles can burst due to external events, like start of wars or some financial crisis. There can be strong bull markets and most of times, these external events would just be noise? > Was btc miners in bubble? And what type of bubble? I think Yes and No? Whenever there's a risk free trade, supported by factors a bubble emerges? The price of Mara was rallying hard, trend was strong. You could argue people got over optimistic, knowing the ETF decision was a risk event. -> therefor (the burst) was sentiment driven. But also predictable? Bubble is when too many people hold asset and there re no buyers left. Similar how a taxi driver is hype about investing. Technical analysis gives you perspective and context. In 1st instance, impulse was too high and volume indicates crowding? It's tricky because it looks so bullish. In 2nd instance, impulse was too low. Price action looked bullish? bubbles happen when too many people hold the shares and expect them to rise. If 1st instance was sentiment switch driven, then 2nd time, the bubble must burst due to exhaustion (or no people left to buy... at these prices.. similar how taxi driver hops in the trade at the wrong time). Factors and thesis can be bullish - and bubble still bursts. Is NVDA and SMCI a bubble? I think there is difference between NVDA, SMCI investors and their time horizon? It could be. I think people believe their investment is supported by the tech drivers. Every dip should be bought out by smart investors and these are the best assets to own in next 5-10 years. It doesnt mean there cant be external events and risks. again- bubble is when too many people are in investment. So bubble can burst either by them changing their sentiment or beliefs (maybe fundamentals must change?). Or if price is just so ridiculously high or there is no money left at sidelines, that trend can't be sustainable. When markets rally - everyone only reads good news and ignores bad news. And vice versa. #HowardMarks #MarketCycle ---> The Risk-Reward buying at these tops just isn't great. That's why they burst. Accompanied by sentiment risks, that hide behind the hood.
NASDAQ:MARAEducation
by citsvar
2
Will Bitcoin Continue Its Pullback?Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a remarkable surge since the speculation surrounding a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut emerged. Recently, BTC hit an all-time high, reflecting the fervor in the market. However, it's essential to note that assets witnessing substantial increases often require a pullback or correction. Analyzing the daily timeframe from March 4th to March 13th, 2024, reveals indications of a bearish divergence pattern, suggesting an impending pullback. This anticipation materialized on March 14th and 15th, 2024, with BTC dropping from its all-time high of 73794 to 68166 at the time of writing, marking a decline of over 7% in just two days. Assessment of Fed Rate Cut Possibility: Despite the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut should inflation continue to decline, the likelihood remains slim. Data from the Fed Watch Tools indicate a 99.0% probability of the Fed maintaining an unchanged interest rate during the March FOMC meeting. This prediction also aligns with the fact that the Fed's emphasis on reducing the Core PCE Price Index to its target of 2% year-on-year, while it currently stands at 2.8%. Technical Analysis and Implications: In addition to the factors mentioned, a technical analysis reveals that Bitcoin's prolonged rally since early February is poised for a significant pullback. The stochastic indicator clearly shows a lower high while the price sets a higher high, indicating a weakening trend. The observed bearish divergence in the daily timeframe signals a potential reversal in the upward momentum. This corrective movement aligns with market dynamics and the absence of strong indications for a Fed rate cut. Therefore, traders and investors in the BTC market should exercise caution and anticipate increased volatility as the asset undergoes a corrective phase. Conclusion: The recent surge in Bitcoin's value amidst speculation surrounding a potential Federal Reserve rate cut has been remarkable. However, technical analysis suggests a high likelihood of a substantial pullback, as evidenced by the observed bearish divergence pattern and the weakening trend indicated by the stochastic indicator. Given the low probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, market participants should brace themselves for increased volatility and potential corrections in the Bitcoin market.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by fardycurry
BTC: Bull RunBitcoin's recent foray into testing the formidable monthly high of 69044.50, briefly surging to touch 7000 before retracing, underscores a pivotal juncture in its trajectory. Bolstered by compelling bullish signals across both monthly and daily timeframes, the cryptocurrency landscape brims with anticipation. Foreseeably, Bitcoin appears poised to decisively reclaim and solidify its position above the critical 69044.50 threshold on the daily chart. This pivotal move is anticipated to ignite a formidable rally, propelling Bitcoin towards the unprecedented milestone of 111855.90, poised to etch a historic zenith in its valuation trajectory.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Youngking22
BTC time for the stop loss hunting to start.Can you hold for potentially 10years before seeing a return to these prices? Do you think the game is to make you rich?? GTFO The creators of it might be being held from us. I like the concept BUT it's a little main stream nowadays. Crypto was cool AF back when I was buying BNB at $7... Held that for over 4 years to see a return = $285 - $390 & I sold early lolz. Anyways I'll still swing trade some crypto here and there but I am basically out. Hope you all become rich and not sad from it. PEACE BE WITH YOU ALL!! NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!!!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Polarbearman
4
BTCUSD ANALYSISOn the monthly charts we have a bullish trend that is yet to break the monthly high. On the weekly chart we have a break that is leaving considerable disequilibrium marked by the fresh order blocks. We are awaiting a correction targeting the 53,000 price handle. On the daily charts, the price is yet to break and form a new confirmed high. Around the 48,000 price handle we had an accumulation and multiple manipulation before the price distributed upwards to the present price handles. On the 4 hour chart, we have new highs though there is no break on the daily, weekly and monthly highs. Presently, we are awaiting for a clear break to either direction before placing a trade.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by morrisgitau
Update on the Path to $100K and $150K BitcoinHere's an updated 'Path to $100k - $150k Bitcoin' study. We've already seen the power of the ETF money flowing into these markets, which seems unstoppable with Blackrock and Fidelity now with over $16B in AUM. We're also now seeing heavy corporate accumulation by the likes of MSTR which just upsized it's convertible debt offering to $700M from $600M to buy more Bitcoin. But as I've been speculating lately that other corporate accumulation has already begun, and would soon be 'revealed' at quarterly earnings reports and 10K filings... A wallet address associated with Tesla has started showing new accumulation of BTC. According to news sources: "Data from Arkham Intelligence reveals Tesla's apparent accumulation of Bitcoin, with holdings now at 11,509 BTC, up from 9,720 BTC. This surge, amounting to 1,789 BTC (approximately $120.4 million), suggests a renewed interest in the cryptocurrency." And they're likely not the only ones. It's a game of musical chairs, and not everyone will have a seat when the music stops. How high will this push Bitcion and the rest of the crypto markets? As you can see from this study analyzing the past cycle's fibonacci projectsions which correctly called the market cycle top exactly, and also by overlaying the last cycle's price action pattern, stretched out slightly to account for the pre-halving tempo of this market... We can clearly see $100k Bitcoin as the likely next point of resistance, and after potentially re-testing the current $70k new high, bitcoin could easily push higher to $155K this year. Similarly, the chart suggests that at a full 3.618 Fibonacci extention like the last cycle, puts Bitcoin at a $210K high this cycle, likely in 2025. What ar your thoughts?
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by BrettFogle
HOW TO $1k to $12.4mil in 83 trades on BTCUSD1D BITFINEX w/ NSV4Through an analysis of 83 trades, NSV4 ('Ninja Signals V4' by BitcoinNinjas.org) has demonstrated its ability to turn a modest $1,000 investment into an impressive $12.4 million, showcasing remarkable potential. In this particular configuration, NSV4 massively outperformed almost any other strategy including the traditional 'buy and hold' in the backtesting of this example. This chart specifically provides insights and a deeper understanding of the effectiveness and potential of this indicator. It is one of the single best charts ever backtested for Ninja Signals. We have spent years receiving feedback from users and cultivating our script while backtesting different charts and timeframes to achieve this level of success. The reliability and continual profit over time for 10+ years is astounding in this particular case! This configuration is unique to this exchange, although is likely to achieve similar results on other exchanges (trading the same pair and the same time interval), perhaps needing only a few minor tweaks. Let us dissect NSV4's performance and discover the principles that have made it a game-changer. How is it possible to turn 1k into 12.4m in 83 trades? First of all, you can see that the first trade was in 2013, so these settings are backtested for over 10 years. This didn't happen over night. Also, this configuration adds the profit of the previous trade to the next trade. On a bot, this would equate to using the entire balance of the account with each trade, and continually increasing the trade amount as profit accrues. Here, we are 'compounding the interest' and using 100% of the trade balance for each trade. This is referred to as "Compounding". We always make sure that a configuration is highly profitable with compounding OFF before we turn it on. In this case, the results are magical. When we are backtesting for the best configurations, there are a few things to keep in mind, these principles are true for any Alerts generating indicator: 1) Has it traded recently, within the last few months? (Yes) 2) Has it been profitable each year if only traded for that year? (Yes) 3) Has it broke even or performed well in a bear market? (Yes) As you can see, this configuration has traded recently, It also meets all of the other criteria. Therefore, this would suffice as a tradeable config in our eyes. In short, why is this pack so successful? 1) Compounding. 2) Long trading history (10yr+). 3) Low SL (Stop Loss) of 6 prevents losing large amounts and keeps trades tight. 4) The results without compounding are stellar to begin with, good start, good finish. 5) Years of backtesting experience from our team culminates in epic configurations. The 1D chart equates to a longer period of time between trades than most people are used to, which results in approx 1 trade per 1-2 months. Most people are looking for quick scalping trades but as you can see here, NSV4 has steadily outperformed almost any strategy using complex combinations of basic trading principles and trading for a long period of time. The tortoise wins the race, in this case. We generally like to use NSV4 between 60m and 1D, anywhere in between. Sometime obscure timeframes such as 177m or 431min seem to do well. It takes time backtesting to find the best results, as with any script. Do you know of any other Alerts generating indicators on TradingView that have achieved this level of success? I haven't found any yet! I am anxious to try these settings and to keep testing! -spiftheninja PROFIT WHILE YOU SLEEP
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Bitcoin_Ninjas
2
MicroStrategy's $100 Million Boost Sparks Optimism for BTC BullsBitcoin ( MIL:BTC ) continues to command attention as it maintains its stronghold above the $65,000 threshold, propelled by MicroStrategy's monumental move to raise an additional $100 million for Bitcoin purchases. With bullish momentum gaining steam, MIL:BTC enthusiasts are eyeing a potential retest of the $69,000 threshold, signaling renewed optimism in the cryptocurrency market. MicroStrategy's ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) latest announcement of an upsized offering of convertible senior notes totaling $700 million underscores the firm's unwavering commitment to bolstering its Bitcoin ( MIL:BTC ) holdings. CEO Michael Saylor's bullish stance on MIL:BTC has been evident since January, when the company sold $216 million worth of stock to fund additional Bitcoin ( MIL:BTC ) acquisitions. This strategic move not only solidifies MicroStrategy's position as one of the largest MIL:BTC holders globally but also paves the way for potential inclusion in the prestigious S&P 500 index. The unexpected $100 million increase in the aggregate principal amount of the offering highlights MicroStrategy's bullish outlook on Bitcoin's ( MIL:BTC ) long-term prospects. With estimated net proceeds of approximately $684.3 million earmarked for Bitcoin ( MIL:BTC ) acquisitions and general corporate purposes, the firm's continued investment in MIL:BTC signals confidence in its ability to serve as a store of value and hedge against inflation. Market analysts anticipate Bitcoin's price to retest the $69,000 threshold, with the potential to surpass the all-time high of $69,325 recorded on March 5. Optimism abounds as traders anticipate a breakout above this critical resistance level, paving the way for MIL:BTC to target the psychologically significant $70,000 mark. A successful breach of these levels could catalyze further bullish momentum, driving Bitcoin's price higher in the near term. However, caution remains warranted as traders brace for potential profit-taking, which could trigger a temporary pullback to retest support levels around $65,000. In a more severe scenario, Bitcoin ( MIL:BTC ) could dip to the $60,000 psychological level before resuming its upward trajectory. Nonetheless, the prevailing sentiment among MIL:BTC bulls remains overwhelmingly positive, with expectations of sustained growth fueled by institutional interest and increasing adoption. As Bitcoin ( MIL:BTC ) continues to capture the imagination of investors worldwide, MicroStrategy's bold move to bolster its Bitcoin ( MIL:BTC ) holdings serves as a testament to the cryptocurrency's enduring appeal and potential as a transformative asset class. With market dynamics evolving rapidly, MIL:BTC remains at the forefront of innovation, driving the digital revolution and reshaping the future of finance.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by DEXWireNews
BTCUSDT.4HBased on the current market data for BTC/USDT, the current price is 67166.0 USDT. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 63.44, which means the market is neither overbought nor oversold. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for the same period is 1043.74, indicating a bullish market. The Bollinger Bands (Bb) for the 4-hour chart is at 69376.0, with the price currently below the upper band, indicating that it is not overbought. The immediate supports are at 65327.0, 61437.0, and 58473.0 USDT. The resistances are at 70115.0, 72800.0, and 74100.0 USDT. On the daily chart, the RSI is 92.34, indicating an overbought market. This could suggest a potential price correction in the near future. The MACD is 4603.0, indicating a strong bullish market. The Bollinger Bands are at 69376.0, with the price above the upper band, indicating an overbought market. The supports are at 58473.0, 56799.0, and 51800.0 USDT. The resistances are at 72800.0, 74200.0, and 77200.0 USDT. On the weekly chart, the RSI is 88.81, indicating an overbought market. The MACD is 6747.0, indicating a strong bullish market. The Bollinger Bands are at 69377.0, with the price above the upper band, indicating an overbought market. The supports are at 44680.0, 38700.0, and 31800.0 USDT. The resistances are at 80770.0, 91500.0, and 98400.0 USDT. In conclusion, the market is strongly bullish across all time frames. However, the high RSI values suggest that BTC is overbought, especially on the daily and weekly charts, and may experience a price correction in the near future. Therefore, it might be a good idea to take profits or set stop losses to protect against a possible downturn. It's important to keep monitoring the market closely.
by MarsSignals
1
Bitcoin - The Liquidation SweepBitcoin - The Liquidation Sweep I guess we will find out tomorrow just how many levered longs got liquidated. Amazes me that Coinbase has gone down for hours during these drawdowns and retail is locked out. Imagine how institutions could capitalize on this.. As far as I am aware Binance has had no strategic outages, retail investors are in the sun making hay..yet the absolute FUD around them for months on end last year. Fascinating year ahead of us PUKA
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by PukaCharts
Bitcoin MVRV - A Key Indicator to WatchThis indicator measures the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the average purchasing cost of each address holding the asset. In short; it provides insight into the profitability of the average investor. A higher ratio suggests that the current market value of the asset significantly exceeds the average purchase cost, indicating that most holders are in profit. Conversely, a lower ratio may suggest that many holders are at a loss. Historically, high values between 3.5 and 5 have coincided with peaks in the markets. The current value is 2.56. This indicates that although CRYPTOCAP:BTC is approaching a heated territory, it's not yet at peak levels. One important trend to observe is that the MVRV peak has declined in every major Bitcoin cycle. It is reasonable to expect this trend to continue, and key levels to watch would be in the 3 to 3.4 range.
BLong
by IntoTheBlock
Bitcoin Continuation to $60k this MarchBitcoin ETF flows have continued to exceed recent expectations. On average it would seem we have been seeing about $500M in new money come in every day. If this continues, which I expect it will, price will continue toward the previous Bitcoin ATH around $70k very soon. In short term however, I think price will hit the $60k area by or in March. This is the measured move of a large bullish megaphone pattern, that just successfully completed a retest of the upper boundary at $50k. Happy trading!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by HaydenOtto
Bitcoin: Macro Support/Resistance Fibonacci SchematicsThe layout of these Bitcoin Schematics are to be able to see all key kevels through appropriate Timeframes. #1 and #2 are Monthly Schematics. #3 through #6 are all 2-Week candles. #7 and #8 are both 1 Weekly Candles. The first two are this ideas main attraction BIG MACRO WISE. These are the most Macro Schematics in the blueprint and they are both in LOG mode. They include two of the Strongest Fibonacci Tools each historically in this market. Each include Fib Spikes and Fib Extensions. The horizontal orange extensions are both the most important Macro Fib Extensions which is why they are 1 and 2. The middle four are all structured support and resistance levels based on the Fibonacci Sequence. They are different because of their small price differences and structure when formed but the overall sequence travels up and can be seen visually on all separately. The last two are the most recent formations so they are on smaller timeframes. Even though every single box has about two schematics per, #8 has about 4. This includes 3 Major Fib tools with different colors along with a not so visible couple of lines. #2 must be watched closely as this resistance can turn into support quickly and then we move onto terra infinte. Once this happens, our resistance is Box #1 at around 200k give or take. Ofcourse there are the other boxes of resistance but I am looking at the Base Schematic of Box 1 to give me the next major ATH on Bitcoin. Or at least a major level before finding another top potentially at around 250k per Box #1's Schematic Layout. I have linked my collection of my best Bitcoin ideas leading up to this point below and all either have some of the same schematics or work together as one.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by MichaelBsul
Bitcoin available scenarios 💹 © Alt-Season®🎉For me , there are two scenarios ahead of Bitcoin 1️⃣ The price will reach a new ATH and start falling from a level that only the market maker knows (Diamond) , which after the new ATH, we should look for signs of falling in lower time frames. 2️⃣ The price should be rejected from this QM level (the level in which it is located), which is necessary for Bitcoin to be sidelined for at least a month or two to clear the market maker's purchases. 📌 Fail Analysis: price goes to higher levels ( more than three-month candle ATR) without any consolidation 🥂 Still enjoy the alt season at this level
Short
by forexvid
Last chance to buy. Last week was very eventful for BTCUSD. Breaking out of the two week long consolidation, the price surged, increasing by around 20%. However, after reaching a local high on Thursday, the price began consolidating recent gains and is adjusting to the $60,000 mark. The positive for bulls is that this consolidation is forming a symmetrical triangle, which we know typically indicates a continuation pattern. In conclusion, in my view, any dips should be considered opportunities for buying, and only if the price drops below 59K in terms of daily closing would this scenario be put on hold.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by samstoobad
1