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Bitcoin Cools Off After Flirting with Overheated Futures MarketThe Bitcoin market appears to be taking a breather after a period of intense activity in the futures market. Recent data indicates a decline in Bitcoin's open interest, a metric that reflects the total amount of outstanding futures contracts. This development comes after concerns arose about the futures market potentially overheating, which could lead to increased volatility. Open Interest and the Overheating Signal Open interest essentially measures the level of leverage traders are using in the Bitcoin futures market. When open interest rises significantly, it suggests that traders are placing more bets on the future price of Bitcoin, often using borrowed capital to magnify potential returns (and losses). This increased leverage can amplify price movements, leading to sharp swings in both directions. Analysts observed a surge in Bitcoin's open interest in recent weeks, raising concerns about the market overheating. This situation has historically been a precursor to increased volatility, as seen in the lead-up to the FTX crash in November 2022 and the price correction in June-August 2022. Both instances coincided with periods of elevated open interest. The Recent Cool Down Fortunately, recent data shows a notable decrease in Bitcoin's open interest. This suggests that traders might be unwinding their leveraged positions, potentially reducing the risk of a sudden and dramatic price movement. This development is seen as a positive sign for the current Bitcoin rally, particularly by bulls (investors who believe the price will continue to rise). The Battle for $65,000 Despite the cooling off in the futures market, the price of Bitcoin itself remains locked in a battle for the crucial $65,000 resistance level. Breaking above this level could signal a continuation of the current uptrend. However, bulls still face challenges. Technical Indicators: EMAs and RSI Analysts like Skew emphasize the importance of Bitcoin price action maintaining certain technical indicators. These indicators provide clues about potential future price movements based on historical price trends. Two key indicators to watch are the exponential moving averages (EMAs) on both the 4-hour and daily timeframes. EMAs smooth out price fluctuations and highlight the underlying trend. If the price can stay above these key EMAs, it bolsters the bullish case. Another indicator to monitor is the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI measures the momentum behind price movements and indicates potential overbought or oversold conditions. For the current uptrend to continue, the RSI needs to return above the central level of 50, suggesting a return to positive momentum. Conclusion The decline in Bitcoin's open interest offers a sigh of relief for those concerned about excessive leverage in the futures market. However, the price battle for $65,000 continues. Keeping an eye on technical indicators like EMAs and RSI will be crucial in gauging the strength of the current rally and potential future price movements.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
Bitcoin Cash Halving Jitters: A Cautionary Tale for Bitcoin? With Bitcoin's fourth mining reward halving just days away, all eyes are on the leading cryptocurrency. However, a recent price slump in Bitcoin Cash (BCH), a derivative of Bitcoin, is sending a potential warning sign to Bitcoin traders. Understanding the Halving Bitcoin's mining reward halving is a pre-programmed event that occurs roughly every four years. It cuts the number of new bitcoins awarded to miners for verifying transactions on the blockchain in half. This economic model is designed to control the overall supply of Bitcoin, theoretically leading to price appreciation in the long run due to scarcity. Bitcoin Cash: A Proxy for Bitcoin's Halving? Bitcoin Cash (BCH) emerged from a hard fork of the Bitcoin blockchain in 2017. While sharing similar core functionalities, BCH has a larger block size, allowing for faster transaction processing compared to Bitcoin. Historically, the price movements of Bitcoin Cash have often mirrored those of Bitcoin, making it a potential indicator for Bitcoin's future performance. This is why the recent post-halving price drop in BCH has some analysts worried about the potential impact on Bitcoin after its upcoming halving on April 20th. BCH's Cautionary Tale: A 15% Slide Following its own halving on April 4th, 2024, Bitcoin Cash experienced a significant price drop of around 15%. This decline suggests that the anticipated rise in value post-halving might not materialize immediately. Furthermore, BCH futures markets also witnessed a significant drop in open interest, indicating a potential decrease in bullish sentiment among traders. Negative funding rates on BCH perpetual futures contracts further highlight a shift towards a bearish outlook. Why BCH Might Not Be a Perfect Proxy While BCH offers some insights, it's important to acknowledge key differences between the two cryptocurrencies: • Market Capitalization: Bitcoin dwarfs Bitcoin Cash in terms of market capitalization. This vast difference means that Bitcoin's halving will likely have a more muted impact on its price compared to BCH. • Adoption Rate: Bitcoin enjoys a wider user base and higher adoption rate compared to BCH. This translates to a potentially more robust and resilient market for Bitcoin. What to Expect for Bitcoin's Halving Despite BCH's recent price slump, predicting the exact impact of Bitcoin's halving remains a challenge. Here are some factors that could influence Bitcoin's post-halving performance: • Institutional Investment: Increased institutional investment in Bitcoin could provide significant support for the price post-halving. • Regulatory Landscape: Evolving regulations surrounding cryptocurrencies can significantly impact investor sentiment and market stability. • Overall Market Conditions: Broader economic factors and the prevailing risk appetite in the market will also influence Bitcoin's post-halving trajectory. A Measured Approach: Long-Term Perspective While the BCH price movement post-halving is a cause for some concern, it shouldn't be the sole indicator for Bitcoin's future. Investors should approach the upcoming halving with a well-rounded perspective, considering the unique fundamentals of Bitcoin and the broader market environment. Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated a tendency for price appreciation in the long term after halving events. However, short-term volatility is inevitable. Investors should exercise caution and adopt a long-term investment horizon when navigating the complexities of the cryptocurrency market. The Bottom Line: A Learning Experience The recent price behavior of Bitcoin Cash serves as a valuable learning experience for Bitcoin traders. It highlights the inherent volatility in the cryptocurrency market and the potential for short-term setbacks even after anticipated positive events like a halving. While BCH might not be a perfect proxy, its performance offers a glimpse into the potential psychological impact of a halving on investor sentiment.
COINBASE:BCHUSD
by bryandowningqln
BTC Bullish ☀️ Over the Next Week - Further Upside LikelyThe cryptocurrency trend was positive over the past 24 hours ahead of Bitcoin’s halving next week and despite the release of higher-than-expected US inflation data that initially pushed prices lower. “Whether the Fed cut rates 25bps in June or not isn't the long-term driver of bitcoin prices right now. It's a marginal factor. ETF flows + rising deficits matter more, and they are lining up very well for bitcoin,” commented Matt Hougan, Bitwise Invest’s chief investment officer. The spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs) approved in the US three months ago exactly recorded $124 million in net inflows on Wednesday. There are currently roughly 19,680,000 Bitcoins in circulation. “Investors in US ETFs own 838,730, or 4.3 %. If we exclude the BTC that has not moved in the last 3 years (9,650,000), the US ETFs own 8.4%. If we exclude the BTC that has not moved in the last 1 years (15,190,000), the U.S. ETFs own 18.7%,” the crypto profile @HODL15Capital noted. Quarterly regulatory filings starting to drip in also show that financial advisers have acquired spot Bitcoin ETFs. Signal Advisors, for example, reported that it holds more than 20,000 of BlackRock’s NASDAQ:IBIT ETF, BlockBeats reports. A bullish sun shines over the global crypto market in the next 24 hours, including Bitcoin and Ether, signaling upside potential. Over a one-week horizon, the trading conditions will be mixed with bearish clouds lingering over Uniswap, Polkadot, Ripple’s XRP and Binance Coin, indicating downside risks. The sun will, however, continue to shine over both Bitcoin and Ether over this medium-term time horizon. Follow us for more crypto news and crypto weather reports!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ATTMO
BTC Cup and Handle Forming | 120K SOONCRYPTOCAP:BTC has formed a cup over the last few years and we are seeing a short term downtrend to the last major resistance level from the 2021 ATH around 64K-69K. This may very will set us up for a perfect cup and handle formation if we: Break below the resistance Find support at a reasonable level, lets say 58K-60K lowest Move back up and retest the resistance Break the resistance again This would confirm our cup and handle pattern. It is then probable to conclude that Bitcoin could reach new all time highs around $120,000 per Bitcoin . This target is predicted by measuring the resistance line to the cup's low, and then adding that measurement to the breakout. That would give us another 77% gains from current prices. Keep an eye on this chart over the next few days and weeks to see if the handle of our pattern forms. DYOR and bring home those gains.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by altsandislands
1
My own BTC theory in play?I have a theory surrounding the 300ema and 300sma, and their crossing. In my charts the 300ema is always in orange and the 300sma is always in green. In my findings so far, whenever the ema crosses bearish over the sma, there usually is an upcoming opportunity for price to go below these moving averages. In most cases, price will reverse and will correct to the upside of the moving averages. And repeat.... Here on the BTC 4H chart, we've had a bearish cross of the ema over the sma. If my theory is correct, we should se some sort of price action below the moving averages in the near future. This could be a pierce below, or temporary sustained price action (accumulation). I also just noticed the huge gap in volume on the VPVR(right side of my chart). A lot of time, price will like to fill these gaps. So, possibly that could be bottom area of the pullback if we get one, and if it goes that low. Just throwing out some ideas. Please like, share, boost, etc... Not financial advice, just my 2cents..
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by Cosmicbag
1
BTC Analysis of Seasonal Trends in Financial MarketsThe first and simple indicator from Shark Trading is now publicly available, along with a lecture on the advantages of using the seasonal indicator. You can also find it on the Tradingview portal and support it with a like: Dear Traders! The seasonal indicator is a powerful analytical tool that helps you better understand the market and make more informed decisions. It not only provides visual representation of various seasonal changes but also helps identify patterns and trends that may go unnoticed in regular analysis. An important feature of this indicator is the ability to customize the color scheme and transparency for each season, as well as choosing between the southern or northern hemisphere. This allows you to tailor the indicator to your preferences and analytical needs. With the seasonal indicator, you'll be able to: 1. Gain a better understanding of the current market state: Displaying seasonal changes helps you better orient yourself in the current market position and identify potential trading opportunities. 2. Identify trends and cyclicality: Analyzing seasonal changes allows you to identify recurring patterns and cycles in the market, helping to forecast its future movement. 3. Optimize trading: Knowing seasonal trends enables you to optimize your trading strategy and make more reasoned decisions about entering and exiting trades. 4. Improve analytical skills: Working with the seasonal indicator helps you develop your analytical skills and improve your understanding of the market. We invite you to read a more detailed article about this indicator and try using it in practice. This tool can become an invaluable assistant in your trading and help you reach new heights in your trading career. Don't miss the opportunity to improve your results - study and apply the seasonal indicator today! ______________________________________________________ Hello, dear traders! In this trading idea, we will present an overview of the seasonal indicator. The seasonal indicator settings allow you to change the color and transparency of each season, as well as have the function of selecting the hemisphere - southern or northern. In addition, this indicator includes an additional trend indicator that displays the direction of price movement. In accordance with the color coding: - Winter is denoted by blue color. - Summer is represented by green color. - Autumn is denoted by orange color. - Spring is denoted by yellow color. All elements on the chart of a certain color will be attributed to the corresponding season. For example, trend lines or levels marked in blue will be associated with the winter season. ______________________________________________________ Winter Explanation of price movement in winter: 1. Number 1 and the blue line denote the maximum price of Bitcoin. Note that they always form at highs, which is consistent. 2. Number 2 and the blue line denote the minimum price specifically in the winter period. This is indeed the price minimum and the low point in the cycle. 3. Number 3 and the blue line denote a local maximum after which the price begins to rise towards line number 1, which acts as a global resistance. 4. Number 4 denotes the last winter cycle before breaking the global maximum. It should be noted that in 2017, the resistance was not broken immediately - first in the spring, and then at the beginning of 2018, the maximum was set and the asset's growth occurred in winter. Additionally, it is worth noting that numbers 1 form the maximum, numbers 2 form the minimum, and since the trend is descending, its line is marked in blue. ______________________________________________________ Summer Now let's consider the price behavior chart for the summer. To make the situation clearer, I've left a descending trend in blue on the graph. I reiterate, elements shown in green on the graph specifically pertain to the summer period. 1. Number 1 on the graph denotes the first summer period! The price during this period remains within a narrow range 90% of the time; however, it's worth noting that impulsive movements can occur at the beginning, middle, or end. Thus, 90% of the time, the price is in a low volatility zone, while the remaining percentage is in a high volatility zone. 2. Number 2 on the graph represents the second summer period, where a pattern is observed: the price tends to rise at the beginning of the summer period and fall towards the end. Therefore, I've marked this time with an arc, and there's a pattern to it. It's worth noting that during the period of the descending trend from 2014 to 2016, the situation after the downward trend differs from the situation in 2018 and 2023, when changes in the arrangement of this situation occur after the breakout of the descending trend based on wave analysis and the price of the asset itself. 3. Number 3 represents the third summer period! During this period, the price movement direction is upward and then downward, forming a correction in the upward trend. It should be noted that in this movement, all lows gradually rise, while highs renew all previous local highs of the asset price. This period exhibits increased volatility and impulsive movements, with the asset price mostly staying within a range of minimal volatility, with volatility not exceeding 1-2% on some stretches. 4. Under number 4, the fourth summer period is indicated, which has an overall upward direction. In this period, the movement is aggressively upward. Starting from the first month until the middle of summer, the price moves downward, forming a correction in the upward trend. Then, during the next month, the price moves aggressively upward, renewing price highs. Volatility in this period is anomalously high, resembling a hot July summer. Additionally, based on the price movement in the summer period, we can assume that fractals are evident here, which we can use to our advantage for profit. ______________________________________________________ Shark Trading - We invite you to read a more detailed article about this indicator and try using it in practice. This tool can become an invaluable assistant in your trading and help you reach new heights in your trading career. Don't miss the opportunity to improve your results - study and apply the seasonal indicator today!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SHARK1318
Bitcoin Analysts Eye Downtrend as Halving LoomsBitcoin, the world's most popular cryptocurrency, is facing a wave of uncertainty. While some investors eagerly await the upcoming halving event, anticipating a price surge, analysts warn of a potential downdrift. The Halving Shadow The Bitcoin halving, scheduled to occur in 10 days, is a pre-programmed event that cuts the rewards for mining new Bitcoins in half. This scarcity is often theorized to drive up the price due to increased competition for a limited supply. However, some analysts, like Benjamin Cowen, believe historical data suggests a possible price decline around the halving period. Mirroring the Past? Cowen highlights a potential trend where Bitcoin's price movement during previous halving events might be repeated. According to his analysis, there's a chance Bitcoin might see a downward correction leading up to the halving. It's important to remember, however, that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Beyond the Halving Several other factors could influence Bitcoin's price trajectory: • Regulations: Regulatory scrutiny from governments around the world could dampen investor enthusiasm. • Institutional Adoption: Increased mainstream adoption by financial institutions could provide a significant price boost. • Market Sentiment: Broader market sentiment and risk appetite can significantly impact Bitcoin's volatile price movements. Is a Crash Imminent? While a significant crash can't be entirely ruled out, expert opinions are divided. The upcoming halving remains a source of debate, with some predicting a price surge and others a potential correction. Navigating the Cryptoverse For investors considering entering the Bitcoin market, careful research and a strong understanding of the inherent risks associated with cryptocurrency are crucial. Disclaimer This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
Bitcoin: Bullish Flag & Bullish Crossover,Upside Potential +16%?Hi Realistic Traders, let's delve into the technical analysis of BINANCE:BTCUSDT Bitcoin's recent rebound on the EMA 200 line, in conjunction with the breakout from the bullish flag pattern and a bullish crossover in the MACD indicator, collectively signals a robust continuation of the bullish trend. The rebound on the EMA 200 line holds particular significance in technical analysis due to its indication of a strong level of support, emphasizing the resilience of the bullish momentum. As a long-term moving average, the EMA 200 carries considerable weight in assessing the overall trend direction, with a rebound from this level suggesting that the underlying bullish sentiment remains intact. Additionally, the bullish crossover in the MACD signifies a significant shift in momentum towards bullish sentiment, while the breakout from the bullish flag pattern indicates renewed investor confidence and potential for further price appreciation. These technical developments provide strong confirmation of the potential for upward movement in the market, aligning with our designated target. It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached. Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Bitcoin." Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below!
Long
by financialfreedomgoals101
4
Bitcoin Zigzag: The Unexpected Twist After the Sell-Off!Upon closely re-evaluating Bitcoin, especially after witnessing this significant sell-off, we must increasingly consider that we're dealing with a Zigzag pattern rather than a Flat structure. As evident in the detailed analysis, we've reached the 78.6% level for Wave B at $71,000, followed by what appears to be an accumulation phase during which Waves ((i)) and ((ii)) were formed, moving towards Wave ((iii)). We're either at Wave ((iii)) at the 161.8% extension level or, as initially anticipated, between the 227.2% and 261.8% levels. Although further drops are possible, we believe this support zone will be crucial. Subsequently, we expect a rebound up to a maximum level close to Wave ((i)), considering $68,000 as a strong resistance zone, while still aiming to find our entry in the range of $57,000 to $54,000. Comparing this with what we anticipate for Wave (4) based on the Fibonacci retracement, we would expect the 38.2% level at $55,000. Therefore, our analysis precisely aligns with the midpoint between the 138% to 161.8% expectation for Wave C.
Long
by stromm_by_wmc
BTC - Expecting new all-time highs soon Proficient analysis of historical patterns is paramount; failure to glean insights from the past often leads to repeated errors. This axiom holds true not only within the realm of trading but extends to broader facets of life. The narrative unfolds with the breakdown of the descending trend line, after which an ascending triangle is formed followed by a new trend movement After exiting the ascending triangle, we move to the global khai, accumulate stops (consolidation), consolidate above and follow the trend
Long
by truepersonal
5
Bitcoin on Brink of Breakout: Bulls Eye $68,700 as Support HoldsBitcoin (BTC) is currently finding support at $64,500 on the 4-hour time frame. The price is facing resistance at $66,100, and a breakout above this level could lead to a further rise towards $67,400. If the market shows strength, this breakout could reach a target price of $68,700. Bitcoin's recent price action suggests a potential bullish continuation and a break above $66,300 would be a positive sign for the bulls. However, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market remains volatile, and unexpected events could cause the price to reverse course. Traders should carefully manage their risk and consider using stop-loss orders to protect their capital.
Long
by Z4F4R
1