Short Bitcoin on Weekly ChartI still cling to the analysis carried out 15 days ago, we are $1k below the price at that time, nothing has changed in terms of Elliot waves, the fractals remain unchanged and the probability drops to levels of 38% to 50% Fibonacci forecast is still in effect.
Here I cannot add the candle in monthly terms, but if you can search for it, you will see that it is negative and has diminished the gains from the previous month's rise.
On a weekly basis, it gives us better detail of what it wants to do, since on a daily basis it has remained in a large lateral range. If we look at the stochastic indicator, we see that the area above 80% has been touched 3 consecutive times, which means an overbought , thus generating a bearish divergence together with the value of the price, follow the projection but always operate cautiously because any fundamental can drastically alter the price.
Bitcoinidea
Short term Upwards Move BTC/USDIt's is important to remember that we didn't get a confirmed Uptrend. I expect a retest of the 25000 area with a high Probability that we break it to the downside.
So alway remember to not hold Long positions for too long in this kind of environment.
Always secure your positions when in profit.
NO LEVERAGE This is a high risk Trade NOT like my last two short positions that I published.
BTC/USD and its crucial support and resistance areaLooking at this Daily BTC/USD Bitstamp chart from around Oct 2020 to 29th July 2023 (today) we can see a few obvious chart patterns that BTC is still in on this daily chart.
1) Ichimoku Y-Wave Pattern AKA a Broadening Wedge Pattern/Megaphone Pattern
2) Ascending Channel Pattern
3) Descending Channel Pattern
4) Rising Wedge Pattern
We can clearly see the crucial range that BTC must break ABOVE and turn into strong support, which is around $28,709 to $32,360 as highlighted by the channel with horizontal dotted lines with yellow shading.
This area has been both strong support and resistance quite a few times over the years.
As a Strong Support range:
Sat 2nd Jan 2021 to Mon 1st Feb 2021
Wed 19th May 2021 to Fri 23rd Jul 2021
As a Strong Resistance range:
Mon 9th May 2022 to Sun 12th Jun 2022
Monday 20th Mar 2023 to Monday 8th May 2023
Mon 29th May 2023 (1day)
Wednesday 21st Jun 2023 to 29th Just 2023 (as of typing this)
Using @LuxAlgo Buyside & Sellside Liquidity indicator, we can see that BTC is slowly filling up its Liquidity Void from around $29,611 to its bottom at $27,051. As we can see from the history of the chart, quite a few of Liquidity Voids do end up getting filled back up even after a long period of year and a half. We can also see that a Buyside Liquidity line is located almost exactly on the top of our important support/resistance area.
Using the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP) in its Delta mode, we can see what the Traded Volume difference was on each of the Volume Profile Bars for this entire charts visible range. Note that the Volume Area Up is Blue and Volume Area Down is Yellow.
Here is a closer look at this 1 day chart.
Note that BTC is still below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis, the Lower Band is still pointing downwards and the Upper Band looks like it may curve downwards.
I have added a Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP) indicator from Thur 15th Jun 2023 to Sat 29th July 2023 (as of typing this). The FRVP is also in its Delta mode and you can clearly see the Traded Volume differences for each Bar. Note that again the Volume Area Up is Blue and Volume Area Down is Yellow.
Looking at the Chaikin Money Flow Indicator (CMF) we can see that the CMF Line is still in the Distribution Zone under its 0.00 Base Line and note that it is still Below its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) indicator. Note that the LSMA has curved upwards at the moment.
Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that momentum has dropped and the RSI Line is still below its 9 Period EMA line. Using the Bollinger Bands on the RSI we can see that the RSI now has little bit of room to move downwards and a lot of room to move upwards before becoming over extended/overbought/oversold. It really is good practice to be on the lookout for any Convergence and Divergence with the RSI and the Price.
The key takeaway from this post, the Resistance Area from around $28,709 to $32,360 is very, very important! Note we also have a Buyside Liquidity Line located almost directly on $32,360.
For the Upside:
A successful Daily Candle CLOSE above the $32,360 level and any successful re-test as strong support will be a good sign of continued positive momentum to come.
For the Downside:
Failure to CLOSE a Daily Candle above the $32,360 level will be a good sign of continued sideways to eventual negative momentum.
Anyway, i hope this post is helpful.
Wyckoff Distribution Pattern in BitcoinMy friends
In my previous Bitcoin post, I suggested that Bitcoin is in a Wyckoff distribution pattern.
IMO, Wyckoff accumulation and distribution patterns are common in Bitcoin’s PA. I want to highlight similar distribution schematics I noticed in the last bear market.
I also provided a glossary of the terms used by Wyckoff traders. I used two books as sources (citations at the bottom), but the words and phrasing are mine.
I posted this TV idea as educational content. Nevertheless, I do not presume to “educate” you. Consider this as a suggestion by a fellow trader looking for your thoughts and feedback. So, what do you think? Are we on to something here? Yes, or no?
Bitcoin Distribution Pattern June14th– July 24th, 2023:
Bitcoin Redistribution June 18th – August 19th, 2022
Bitcoin Redistribution Pattern January19th – May 3rd, 2022:
Bitcoin Distribution October 6th – December 1st, 2021:
Glossary:
Automatic Reaction (AR): With the buying pressure exhausted, the price moves down sharply. This is called an Automatic Reaction. The low of this sell-off is the range low.
Buying Climax (BC): The point at which buying pressure reaches a climax. By this stage, institutional players (whales) and informed traders sold their allotted stocks to uninformed traders. From this point on, institutional traders begin to suppress the asset's price, preventing it from surpassing a set threshold.
Last point of Supply (LPSY): After breaking below resistance, the Price tries to rally above the former support, now flipped to resistance. Volume may be light or heavy, showing weak demand or substantial supply. At LPSYs, the last waves of distribution are being unloaded before markdown is to begin. LPSYs are good places to initiate a short position or to add to already existing short positions.
Preliminary Supply (PSY): The term describes a stage in an uptrend in which selling pressure creates noticeable resistance after a move up.
Secondary Test (ST): The price moves to the vicinity of the range high to test the supply and demand balance at this price level. If this is really the range-high, supply will outweigh demand, and volume and spread should be diminished as the price moves closer to the resistance area of the range high.
Sign of weakness (SoW): A Sign of Weakness is evidence that Supply is stronger than demand. A breakdown below a support level within the range (such as the mid-range) provides evidence that the MM favors lower prices. A failure to get back above support provides additional confluence to the bearish bias.
Upthrust (UT): An upthrust is a false breakout also called a “bull trap.” The MM initiates a break above the range high to trap breakout traders to go long. The upthrust also shakes out weak hands that already took a short position. The liquidity provided by the breakout traders and from triggering the sell stops of the weak-handed traders gives the MM the liquidity he requires to fill his short positions to trigger the downtrend.
Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD): This is the final shakeout. The basics of the UTAD are the same as the regular UT. Sometimes the UTAD reaches a higher price point than the previous UT actions.
Bibliography
Chaves, R. V. (2022). The Wyckoff Methodology in Depth.
Pruden, H. (2007). The Three Skills of Top Trading. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.
Bitcoin the closing monthly options worth 2 billion, July 28I closed a short position on Bitcoin, a high chance of a rebound to 30,500 - 31,000, after which we will continue to decline to the levels of 0.618, I indicated a wide area on the chart. Now the volume indicator indicates strong buyer pressure at all time frames.
Bitcoin Will Rise Bullish SidewaysDaily TF and Bigger Picture Bullish
30 Min. is currently bearish,Bitcoin needs to fill the previouse Gaps
southern area.I have marked them for you.
The gaps have to be filled first, because BTC rose too fast and it needs to pick up the buy orders that areas.. Otherwise, the Bull trend will be slowed down.
I am long, and stay long. The VP is trending Bullish, The POC lies above 26980.This is a strong sigal and Indicatr that the market should and will retur back to those areas.
In northern areas we have very high volumes. Above 26000 we will experience higher buy pressures.
I have market key level prices for you.
Geerally this correction is necessary and healthy for BTC as it offers many buying oppurtunieties
at support areas and turning key levels.
Below 19000 The bearish trend will be started.
Bitcoin history and future1W time frame
-
Every vertical dotted lines stand for halving timing, we call them "a cycle" between two lines.
Every cycles have similar trend, we can mark them with three colors as below.
(1) White range stand for Bull high to Bear second low
(2) Red range stand for Bull high to Bear low
(3) Green range stand for Bear low to Next halving
According to halving in 2012 and 2016, we can expect Bitcoin make a second low (below 20000) in near future, the most possible time range is from August '23 to February '24.
Before the second low coming, Bitcoin will likely reach price over 33000, therefore, be careful of being fomo and get ready with patience to buy spot.
BTC's Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern Signals Positive OutlooThe formation of an inverse head and shoulders pattern has provided Bitcoin (BTC) with a positive outlook for the day, successfully rebounding from the resistance level at 29,500 USD. As this pattern is already in full swing, the technical target is now set at approximately 30,630 USD.
bitcoin long setup bitcoin best long from value are low . poc
u can target up to value are high .
hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. Please also refer to the Important Risk Notice linked below.
BITCOIN SELL SCHEMATIC!💲💸 #Bitcoin #SellSchematic - July 15, 2023 6:50am EST - Both our 1hr and 15min C indicates the Bearish Raid out of the box. The 12 AM is GREEN
When you develop a system that is designed to follow the SAME CODE that the algorithm follows you tend to win more trades than you take lessons on.
Always remember you need lessons because without those data points you will never grow as a trader or as an individual.
Trading is a life long process of constant self development evolution and improvement.
Plus you have the opportunity to make as much money as you want when you master SELF DISCIPLINE and SELF CONTROL aka your GREED>
Never Over Leverage.
Trust your trade set up.
Have a Great Weekend!
Bitcoin. The beginning of the end?Bitcoin. The beginning of the end?
#Bitcoin.
I'm observing a sell-off in the asset. A set of short positions. That doesn't mean we're going to go down in flames. It means we can try to win back a short position, which is what I'm going to do.
My sell entry will be at the marks:
$31,400 - $31,600 as soon as there's a retest of that level.
At the retest I will look for reversal patterns and weakness of the asset. After that I will make a decision to enter the trade.
I wish you a good day, dear colleagues. Let's try to make money for a living)
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #12Good evening, we are from Ukraine!
It is quite possible that the situation may develop in order to confuse traders, because flat movements in the market are quite a profitable business, but they have their own price that will have to be paid for their early decision. The reward will be an impulse movement after the accumulation/distribution is completed. I observe a sufficient number of locked-in traders who hope that the price will go in the direction of the desired take profit, but not everything is so simple and unambiguous.
Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success.
Sometimes you win /sometimes you learn .
#Bitcoin