Get started

Beyond Technical Analysis

Silver (XAGUSD): Precision Buy/Sell Strategies for Optimal GainsCAPITALCOM:SILVER Chart Analysis: Silver (XAGUSD) 1-Hour Timeframe Current Market Structure Strong High: Significant resistance level near the top of the chart. Swing Low: Key support level near the bottom. Break of Structure (BOS): Indicates a potential reversal or continuation. Order Block (OB): Areas highlighted in green where institutional buying or selling might have occurred. Breakout Block (BB): Potential breakout area near the top. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: 0.382: $29.108 0.5: $29.222 0.618: $29.336 0.705: $29.450 0.786: $29.498 Indicators RSI: 61.59 (neutral to slightly bullish) MACD: Bullish momentum with histogram at 0.567 and signal line at -4.915 Volume Profile: High volume areas indicating strong support or resistance. Buy Strategy Confirmation: Look for bullish candlestick patterns (e.g., hammer, bullish engulfing) near the OB zone around $28.850 - $29.000. Ensure RSI is above 50, indicating bullish momentum. Entry: Enter a buy position around the OB zone ($28.850 - $29.000). Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the swing low at around $28.700 to minimize risk. Take Profit: First target at the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($29.222). Second target at the 0.786 Fibonacci level ($29.498). Sell Strategy Confirmation: Look for bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., shooting star, bearish engulfing) near the strong high or BB zone around $29.688. Ensure RSI is below 50, indicating bearish momentum. Entry: Enter a sell position around the strong high ($29.688). Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the strong high at around $29.800 to minimize risk. Take Profit: First target at the 0.618 Fibonacci level ($29.336). Second target at the OB zone around $28.850 - $29.000. VIP Signal Format ENTRY: $28.850 - $29.000 (Buy near this level) TP1: $29.222 TP2: $29.498 SL: $28.700 This analysis combines price action techniques with key technical indicators to provide a comprehensive buy and sell strategy for Silver (XAGUSD). If you have any more questions or need further adjustments, feel free to let me know! 📈😊 Follow @Alexgoldhunter for more strategic ideas and minds
CAPITALCOM:SILVERLong
by Alexgoldhunter
GOOGL Technical Analysis for Tomorrow - Dec. 231. 1-Hour Timeframe * Current Price: $192.70 * Key Resistance Levels: * $192.92: Immediate resistance level. * $195.00–$196.00: Resistance zone near previous highs. * $201.42: Psychological and structural resistance. * Key Support Levels: * $188.58: Nearest support level, previously tested. * $183.92: Stronger support from previous consolidation. 2. Key Observations 1. Trend Analysis: * GOOGL recently broke out of a descending channel, indicating a potential shift from bearish to bullish momentum. * The breakout is accompanied by higher-than-usual volume, signaling interest from buyers. 2. Stochastic Oscillator: * Currently nearing the overbought zone, which suggests the possibility of a short-term pullback before further upward movement. 3. Volume Analysis: * The breakout occurred with a noticeable spike in volume, indicating strong bullish intent. 3. My Thoughts on GOOGL’s Direction * Bullish Bias:
GOOGL has shown strength breaking out of the descending channel and moving toward resistance at $192.92. If it holds above this level, I expect it to test $195.00 and potentially $196.00 in the near term. * Possible Pullback:
With the Stochastic Oscillator in the overbought zone, a pullback to $188.58 or even $186.00 is possible before resuming upward momentum. Overall, I lean bullish for GOOGL, but a short-term pullback before continuation cannot be ruled out. 4. Trade Scenarios Bullish Scenario: * Entry: On a breakout above $192.92 with volume confirmation. * Targets: $195.00, then $196.00. * Stop-Loss: Below $191.00 to minimize downside risk. Bearish Scenario: * Entry: If GOOGL fails to break $192.92 and rejects with significant selling pressure. * Targets: $188.58, then $183.92. * Stop-Loss: Above $193.50. 5. Key Levels to Watch * Support: $188.58 and $183.92. * Resistance: $192.92, $195.00, and $201.42. GOOGL is showing signs of bullish momentum with its breakout from the descending channel, but a short-term pullback due to overbought conditions is possible. I expect it to test $195.00 soon if $192.92 is cleared decisively. Traders should keep an eye on volume and price action at these key levels to determine the next move. ------------ Option Trading Scalping and Long/Short Strategy for GOOGL 1. Scalping Strategy for Options Trading Key Observations from GEX Levels and Chart * Resistance Levels: * $195.00: Strong 2nd Call Wall and significant resistance. * $197.50: Higher resistance near the next GEX (Gamma Exposure) level. * $202.50: 3rd Call Wall and a strong psychological barrier. * Support Levels: * $190.00: Key level with moderate support (16.33% GEX9). * $187.50: High Volume Level (HVL) and key support zone. * $182.50: 2nd Put Wall, providing stronger downside support. * Volume and Momentum: * Momentum indicates bullish activity, with price moving toward $195.00 resistance. * Options Oscillator shows 7.6% calls and a neutral-to-bullish sentiment. Scalping Call Options (Bullish Setup): * Entry: On a breakout above $195.00 with volume confirmation and momentum. * Target: $197.50 (first target) and $202.50 (extended target). * Stop-Loss: Below $193.50 to limit downside risk. Why It Works:
The breakout above $195.00 aligns with a gamma squeeze toward higher levels, as there’s a buildup of positive gamma above $195.00. Scalping Put Options (Bearish Setup): * Entry: On rejection at $195.00 or breakdown below $190.00 with strong volume. * Target: $187.50 (HVL) and $185.00 (next support zone). * Stop-Loss: Above $195.50. Why It Works:
A rejection at $195.00 signals resistance and potential profit-taking, with a move targeting GEX support levels. 2. Long/Short Strategy Long Strategy (Bullish Case): * Entry: Enter long positions on sustained price action above $195.00. * Targets: * Short-Term: $197.50 (near-term resistance). * Extended: $202.50 and $205.00 (3rd Call Wall and GEX resistance). * Stop-Loss: Below $193.50 for risk management. Why It Works:
A breakout above $195.00 signals continued bullish momentum, with GEX indicating higher gamma exposure driving prices upward. Short Strategy (Bearish Case): * Entry: Enter short positions on rejection at $195.00 or a breakdown below $190.00. * Targets: * Short-Term: $187.50 (HVL and moderate support). * Extended: $182.50 (2nd Put Wall support). * Stop-Loss: Above $195.50 for rejection trades, or above $191.00 for breakdown trades. Why It Works:
Rejection or a failed breakout at $195.00 aligns with bearish sentiment, targeting downside gamma levels for support. 3. Additional Notes * Scalping Tips: * Use short-dated options (7–14 DTE) for quick price moves. * Focus on at-the-money (ATM) strikes for the best risk/reward ratio. * Volume Confirmation: * Ensure volume spikes at key levels (e.g., $195.00 for breakout or rejection). * Risk Management: * Stick to tight stop-losses to limit losses in scalping. * For long/short trades, scale into positions at support/resistance levels. Conclusion * Bullish Scenario: Breakout above $195.00 targets $197.50 and $202.50. * Bearish Scenario: Rejection at $195.00 or breakdown below $190.00 targets $187.50 and $182.50. Focus on volume and price action near key GEX levels to guide your entries and exits. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please trade responsibly and manage your risk appropriately.
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by BullBearInsights
Scam exposed youtu.be 🛑 Honey Scam Unveiled: The video reveals that Honey, a popular browser extension marketed as a money-saving tool, has been involved in questionable practices. It includes deceptive advertising, affiliate fraud, and manipulation of influencers and customers. • 💰 Affiliate Commission Poaching: Honey replaces influencers’ affiliate links with its own during checkout, effectively stealing commissions. This practice impacts both large influencers and smaller creators reliant on affiliate marketing income. • 🔍 Misleading Value Proposition: Honey claims to find the best coupon codes for users but often withholds better codes at the behest of partner businesses, undermining its core promise. • 📊 Business Partnerships: Honey allows businesses to control discount codes on its platform, leading to intentional withholding of higher-value discounts from users. • 🧑‍🎤 Impact on Influencers: Prominent influencers like Linus Tech Tips unknowingly promoted Honey, only to later discover these manipulative practices. Despite ending partnerships, many influencers’ promotions remain live, perpetuating the cycle. • **🤥 False Claims in Marketing: Honey’s advertising is called out for misleading statements such as “you’ll always get the best deal” and “no manual searching needed,” which contradict their actual operations. • **🚨 Consumer Exploitation: Customers often experience Honey providing suboptimal deals or adding its own branded coupon codes instead of genuine discounts. • **📈 Massive Reach: Honey’s marketing campaigns involved sponsorships with over 1,000 YouTube channels, accumulating billions of views. • **📢 Ethical Questions: Despite being exposed, Honey remains active, with little regulatory oversight or accountability, raising concerns about online business ethics. Insights Based on Numbers • $4 Billion Acquisition: Honey was purchased by PayPal for $4 billion, showing the financial stakes behind its practices. • 7.8 Billion Views: Honey’s campaigns amassed almost 8 billion views, illustrating the vast reach and influence of its deceptive marketing. • 89 Cents vs. $35: In one example, Honey poached $35 in affiliate commissions but returned just 89 cents to the customer, highlighting the imbalance in benefits.
NASDAQ:PYPLShort
by justin_p_mcfarland
1
AAPL Technical Analysis for Tomorrows - Dec.23 1. 1-Hour Timeframe * Current Price: $255.28 * Resistance Levels: * $257.30 (recent high and breakout level) * $260.00 (psychological level and potential target) * Support Levels: * $251.97 (previous breakout zone, now acting as support) * $249.79 (secondary key support level) 2. Key Observations A. Trend and Momentum: * AAPL recently broke out of a descending trendline with strong momentum, signaling bullish strength. * Price action is currently consolidating just below the resistance at $257.30, which will be critical for determining the next move. B. Stochastic Oscillator: * The Stochastic is nearing the overbought zone, suggesting that the stock might see a slight pullback before making another attempt to move higher. C. Volume Analysis: * The breakout was accompanied by a noticeable volume spike, validating the bullish breakout. However, sustained volume will be needed to push past $257.30. 3. Trade Scenarios Bullish Scenario: * Entry: Look for consolidation above $255.00, followed by a breakout of $257.30 with strong volume. * Target: $260.00 (psychological resistance) and potentially higher if momentum sustains. * Stop-Loss: Below $251.97 to limit downside risk. Bearish Scenario: * Entry: If AAPL rejects $257.30 and breaks below $251.97 with increasing volume. * Target: $249.79 (key support zone) and possibly lower. * Stop-Loss: Above $257.30. 4. My Thoughts on AAPL’s Direction Based on the current price action and volume dynamics, I believe AAPL is more likely to test the $257.30 resistance and break higher. The bullish breakout from the descending trendline, combined with strong volume, supports upward momentum. However, with the Stochastic Oscillator nearing overbought levels, we could see a brief pullback before further upside. If $257.30 is broken decisively, $260.00 becomes a realistic short-term target. 5. Key Levels to Watch * Support: $251.97 and $249.79 * Resistance: $257.30 and $260.00 AAPL is displaying strong bullish momentum, and my bias is tilted toward the upside for tomorrow. Keep an eye on the $257.30 resistance level for a breakout or rejection, as this will dictate the next move. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please trade responsibly and manage your risk accordingly. -------------- Scalping Strategy (Options Trading) Key Observations: * Resistance Levels: * $257.50: Highest Gamma Wall, acting as a strong resistance. * $260.00: Psychological and GEX resistance zone. * Support Levels: * $252.50: 3rd Call Wall (moderate support). * $247.50: HVL (High Volume Level), a major support. Scalping Call Options: * Setup: Enter calls if price consolidates above $257.50 and breaks out with volume confirmation. * Exit Target: $260.00. * Stop-Loss: Below $257.00 to minimize risk. Scalping Put Options: * Setup: Enter puts if the price rejects $257.50 or fails to hold above $257.00. * Exit Target: $252.50. * Stop-Loss: Above $258.00. Long/Short Strategy Long Strategy: * Entry: Look for a breakout above $257.50 with strong volume and bullish momentum. * Target: $260.00 (short-term), $262.50 (extended target). * Stop-Loss: Below $256.00 to protect against reversal. Why It Works: * $257.50 is the highest gamma exposure level, and a breakout above this zone indicates strong bullish sentiment. Short Strategy: * Entry: Enter short positions if the price fails to break above $257.50 and shows a rejection (e.g., wicks or bearish engulfing candles). * Target: $252.50 (3rd Call Wall), $247.50 (HVL). * Stop-Loss: Above $258.00. Why It Works: * Rejection at $257.50 confirms resistance and potential profit-taking, aligning with put gamma levels below $252.50. Key Tips for Scalping and Options Trading 1. Volume Confirmation: * Ensure volume spikes during breakouts or rejections for higher probability trades. 2. Timeframe: * Use the 1-minute or 5-minute chart for scalping execution. 3. Implied Volatility: * IV is at 24.1%. Look for slightly out-of-the-money (OTM) options with low time decay for scalping. Conclusion * Bullish Case: AAPL breaks above $257.50 → Target $260.00 and $262.50. * Bearish Case: AAPL rejects $257.50 → Target $252.50 and $247.50. Stay focused on high-probability setups by watching volume, price action near key levels, and momentum indicators like Stochastic Oscillator. Let me know if you'd like a more specific strike price or expiration recommendation! 🚀
NASDAQ:AAPL
by BullBearInsights
1
$BTC.D prediction based on the current situation.CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D has been climbing steadily since the start of this bull run. It’s often said that an altseason begins when BTC dominance drops below 55%. However, the 54% level appears to be a strong support zone, with the MACD showing a low point and the RSI entering oversold territory. My analysis suggests that BTC dominance has established a range between 59% and 55%. It’s likely to bounce off the top resistance, pushing dominance back toward the support. If the next drop breaks through this support, it could finally trigger a true altseason.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by CryptoNikkoid
1
Palantir ($PLTR): Positioned for Major Upside Palantir Technologies ( NASDAQ:PLTR ) just announced a game-changing partnership with Anduril, SpaceX, OpenAI, and other private sector giants to form a consortium targeting U.S. government contracts. This move positions NASDAQ:PLTR as a key player in the tech-defense ecosystem, directly competing against the traditional military-industrial complex. With this strategic backing from innovative companies, Palantir is poised for long-term growth and a potential re-rating of its value. Key Highlights: • Increased exposure to high-value government contracts. • Diversified partnerships across AI, aerospace, and defense. • Strong momentum in the defense-tech sector. Technically, NASDAQ:PLTR continues to show solid support levels, with the potential for a breakout as these partnerships materialize. Watch for volume spikes and news updates for entry opportunities!
NASDAQ:PLTRLong
by justin_p_mcfarland
1
12/22/24 Weekly Watchlist + NotesAMEX:SPY - Huge sell off across the board from FOMC news on Wednesday. SPY sold off down through previous Broadening Formation range reclaiming previous downside pivot just below 684. So with that in mind, we expand out of the BF below that pivotal low, or come back through range above it. With SPY currently setup to potentially go 3-2 daily, we look to see whether fridays high or low gets taken out. Being above the pivot at 684, we are looking to come back through that BF range and make new ATHs as of now. Of course this can all change depending on whether our W is green or red, but for now we are closer to making a daily HH than a LL. With Christmas being this week, the markets close 2 hours early on Tuesday, and re open on Thursday. Being a short week like this, we need to be extra cautious as there will be lower than normal volume, and simply less time for the weekly candle to form, so expectations on a large move this week as most seem to be predicting, may not happen for the prior reasons. Personally will not be trading Tuesday and possibly not at all this week if I don't see absolute A+ setups. Watchlist: Bullish: NASDAQ:NVDA - Pot. 1-3-2U Daily to trigger failed 2D hammer week. Swept BF lows this past week. Looking to come back through range. This is a big name for the markets, so I expect that if the markets are recovering, this will lead the way or follow with it NASDAQ:MU - 2-2U reversal potential daily to target gap fill from ER. We took out weekly BF mag on friday, hitting exhaustion levels after finally escaping the motherbar it was stuck in for the last 11 weeks. One side gets toasted, magnitude is hit for W and M. All the ingredients for a big recovery. Only issue is being stuck in last weeks range NASDAQ:PLTR - potential 3-2D for a simultaneous weekly 2-1-2U trigger. Nuclear green on all TFs. Slight room to go to target ATH again, but mainly looking for the weekly inside up measured move, meaning if we go 2-1-2U, we can expect the same move up as we had in the week prior to last weeks inside bar week. Cruise Lines: NYSE:CCL + NYSE:NCLH Weekly hammers. NYSE:RCL Not a clean weekly AS, but similar daily to other names in the industry. Bearish: NASDAQ:TSLA - 3-1 4Hr to trigger MoMo shooter Daily to trigger Shooter Weekly 2-2. Daily PMG to target from ATH Exhaustion. (Big green day for most names Friday, why was TSLA so bearish with such relative strength lately?) NASDAQ:AVGO - Shooter 2U Day to trigger 2-2 shooter week. Huge gap up from earnings. Looking to attack the gap. NYSE:KO - MoMo Shooter 2D day to trigger 2-1-2D week. Having issues making range lately, but daily BF is targeting lower still, and weekly 2-2d has yet to be negated. Inside week will confirm more downside to target our BF magnitudes on the D and W, or it will be negated by a 2U week. Simple plan here. Short under prev week low, exit if back above. NYSE:UBER - MoMo shooter 2d Weekly to reconfirm M 2D and Q 2U going 3. Check Monthly for the BF. Wanna see continuation lower to Q mag at 54.84. No daily AS but 3-1 4HR. May be a slower mover on the list. Basing all my decisions on the weekly as the momo shooter should simply just trigger and work
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alanger17
The key is whether it can rise above 0.37778 Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (DOGEUSDT 1W chart) As the price falls, the HA-High indicator is expected to be created at the 0.37778 point. Accordingly, the key is whether it can rise above 0.37778. If not, 1st: 0.26850-0.28000 2nd: M-Signal on the 1M chart You need to check whether it can rise with support near the 1st and 2nd above. - Since the StochRSI indicator has fallen below the overbought level, it seems likely to continue to decline further. However, when looking at the StochRSI indicator, volatility may occur when it reaches around the 50 point, so caution is required. - (1D chart) - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC. (BTCUSD 12M chart) Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend. Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025. - (LOG chart) Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing. Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective. Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future. - The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015. In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend. The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019. Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026. - No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving. How to view and respond to this is up to you. When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately. However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance. This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci. Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies. 1st : 44234.54 2nd : 61383.23 3rd : 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting) 4th : 134018.28 151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting) 5th : 178910.15 -----------------
by readCrypto
1
Whether it can be supported and rise around 92K-93.5K is the key Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1W chart) What we need to look at is whether it can touch the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1W chart) indicator and rise. When a new candle is created, it is expected to pass around 83.6K. Accordingly, the point of interest is whether it will meet the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart around 87.8K-89K. The reason is that the StochRSI indicator is showing a downward trend from the 100 point, and if a new candle is created, it is expected to change to a state where StochRSI < StochRSI EMA. Since the StochRSI indicator is still in the overbought zone, it is likely to rise after receiving support around 92K-93.5K. - (1D chart) The next volatility period is around December 17 (December 16-18). Therefore, the key is how it will look after this volatility period. It is currently showing a short-term downtrend, but looking at the overall picture, it is ambiguous to say that it has yet to break out of the sideways zone, so the key is whether it falls below 90586.92. - Therefore, we need to check whether it can rise above 95904.28. If not, it is expected to touch around 92K-93.5K. In order to turn into a short-term uptrend, it needs to rise above 97821.5-98892.0 to be supported. Since the Momentum indicator is showing a low, it may lead to an additional decline. You can see that the Body color of the candle changed to red from the December 20 candle. This is because the OBV fell below the midpoint. Therefore, if the Body color of the candle changes back to Green, it can be seen as a buying period. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC. (BTCUSD 12M chart) Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market. Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025. - (LOG chart) Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing. Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective. Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future. - The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015. That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend. The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019. Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026. - No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving. It is up to you how to view and respond to it. Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized. However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role. The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci. Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies. 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting) 4th: 134018.28 151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 -----------------
by readCrypto
GBPJPY set for bullish move in the 2nd half of the week.Based on the Ichimoku analysis, here’s a trade setup using the 4-hour and daily charts, incorporating Ichimoku Wave and Time Theory: 1. Observations on the Daily Chart: Trend: The price is within the Ichimoku cloud, indicating consolidation or indecision. However, the bullish attempt to break above the cloud suggests upward momentum might develop. Key Levels: Resistance: 197.50 (upper cloud boundary and recent highs). Support: 194.50 (Kijun-Sen and lower cloud boundary). Chikou Span (Lagging Line): Inside the price action, signaling no clear trend confirmation yet. Wave Theory: After a sharp rally in mid-December, the market shows signs of completing a corrective wave within the cloud. Time Theory: If the next bullish move aligns with the current time cycles (Kihon-Suchi intervals: 9, 17, 26), a breakout may occur around the next 2–3 trading days. 2. Observations on the 4-Hour Chart: Trend: The price is trading above the cloud, suggesting a short-term bullish bias. Key Levels: Resistance: 197.00 (recent highs). Support: 195.50 (Kijun-Sen on the 4-hour chart and near the cloud top). Chikou Span: Positioned above the price action, supporting bullish momentum. Wave Theory: The impulsive move to 198.00 was followed by a correction back into the cloud. Current price action suggests a potential new bullish wave starting. Time Theory: Time intervals suggest a minor pullback may complete soon, and the next bullish wave could initiate in the next 4–8 candles. 3. Trade Setup: Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Entry: Wait for a close above 197.00 on the 4-hour chart to confirm bullish momentum. Target 1: 198.50 (previous high on the 4-hour chart). Target 2: 200.00 (psychological level and wave projection). Stop Loss: Below 195.50, where the Kijun-Sen and cloud support converge. Bearish Scenario (If Daily Cloud Resistance Holds): Entry: If price rejects 197.00 and closes below 195.50 on the 4-hour chart. Target 1: 194.00 (daily cloud support). Target 2: 192.50 (next significant support on the daily chart). Stop Loss: Above 197.50. 4. Ichimoku Wave and Time Theory Insights: Wave Analysis: The market may form a new bullish N-wave if it breaks above 197.00. Targets for this wave could align with the 198.50–200.00 zone. Time Analysis: Watch for reversals or breakout confirmations within 2–3 trading days (daily chart) or 4–8 candles (4-hour chart), aligned with the Kihon-Suchi cycles.
Long
by Welburg_Trading
1
Fed Rate Expectations: How Are They Formed?Changes in the Federal Reserve's funds rate have far-reaching implications for nearly all existing assets. When the rate increases amidst moderate inflation, the U.S. dollar TVC:DXY typically strengthens, attracting capital from both the cryptocurrency and stock markets. Conversely, if inflation is rising rapidly and the Fed is compelled to aggressively raise rates to stabilize the economy, investors often interpret this as a sign of underlying trouble, prompting them to shift their assets into TVC:GOLD . However, it is essential to recognize that the Fed’s decisions are reactions to prevailing economic conditions. More crucially, market expectations regarding the Fed's rate movements—shaped by collective sentiment—play a significant role in shaping economic outcomes. This post explores the factors that form these expectations. 📍 Key Indicators Influencing Expectations for the Fed Funds Rate The market tends to respond significantly only when actual changes in the funds rate diverge from expectations. If adjustments align with market forecasts, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar typically remains stable. Thus, accurately predicting the Fed's actions is vital for investors and traders. 1. Labor Market Dynamics The labor market is a primary focus for the Fed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases employment reports every Friday, providing insight into unemployment rates. The Fed maintains a forecast range for acceptable unemployment levels—generally between 4.2% and 4.8%—indicating economic balance. An uptick in unemployment signals economic weakness, often prompting a reduction in the funds rate. Conversely, a decline in unemployment raises concerns about potential economic overheating, which could lead to tighter monetary policy. 2. Inflation Trends The Fed’s target inflation rate is set at 2%. As inflation rises, the Fed typically increases the funds rate to curb borrowing. This was clearly illustrated during the 2022-2023 period, where persistent inflation above 8% led to a series of rate hikes. In contrast, deflation would necessitate maintaining ultra-low funds rates. Additional indicators to monitor include wage trends, inflation expectations, and the consumer price index (CPI). 3. Overall Economic Health Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic health. Although GDP data is often retrospective, it reflects long-term economic trends. A decline in GDP may prompt the Fed to adopt stimulative monetary policies. Analysts often utilize the GDPNow model, developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, to obtain real-time estimates of U.S. GDP growth. 4. Treasury Yield Curve The yield curve illustrates the relationship between bond yields of different maturities from the same issuer. A flattening yield curve typically signals economic slowdown, while long-term bonds yielding less than short-term bonds can foreshadow a recession. The Fed could respond to such signs by adjusting funds rates higher depending on the crisis’s underlying causes. 5. Global Economic Influences Economic conditions in other major economies, particularly China and the European Union, can indirectly impact the U.S. economy due to deep economic ties. Monitoring central bank funds rates and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in these regions is essential. 6. The Dollar’s Exchange Rate Against Key Currencies A strong U.S. dollar can adversely affect American exporters. If other central banks, such as the Bank of Japan or the European Central Bank, adopt accommodative monetary policies, the Fed may also consider lowering rates to avoid a detrimental trade balance caused by a strengthening dollar. 7. Market Expectations Investor sentiment creates a feedback loop. With over 50% of Americans investing in equities, a hawkish stance on funds rates tends to increase bond yields and instigate a sell-off in securities, negatively impacting overall economic wealth. Investors’ anticipation of potential rate cuts can pressure the Fed to align with these expectations. 8. Communication from Fed Officials The rhetoric from Fed officials often hints at future monetary policy, providing insights into rate expectations based on their communications. Numerous indicators, including analysts’ forecasts and futures trading on key rates, contribute to understanding the Fed's policies. Due to the complexity of these influencing factors, relying solely on fundamental analysis for trading is not advisable for beginners. 📍 Conclusion Forecasting changes in the Fed's funds rate often begins with the first clear signals about the Fed's potential actions. The primary motivations guiding the Fed are the control of inflation and the management of unemployment—making these two indicators crucial for predictions regarding monetary policy. Additionally, it is essential to consider fundamental factors impacting other major currencies. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
3
Crypto Market Update: Key Developments and Analysis.Crypto Market Update: Key Developments and Analysis 1. Trump Nominates Stephen Miran as Chairman of Economic Advisory Council President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Stephen Miran as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, a position that will play a crucial role in shaping economic policy for the incoming administration. Miran, who previously served as a senior advisor to the Treasury Department in 2021, is well-known for his advocacy of deregulation to promote innovation across various sectors in the United States. In a statement on social media, Miran expressed his excitement about the nomination: "I am beyond honoured that President Trump has chosen me to lead his Council of Economic Advisers. I look forward to working to help implement the President's policy agenda to create a booming, noninflationary economy that brings prosperity to all Americans!" The crypto community has responded positively to Miran's nomination, largely due to his pro-innovation stance and openness towards digital assets and cryptocurrencies. His appointment is seen as a potential catalyst for more favourable regulatory environments for the crypto industry. 2. Bitcoin Social Sentiment Drops to Yearly Low, Signalling BTC Breakout Social sentiment around Bitcoin has reached its lowest point in 2024, suggesting a possible recovery above the $100,000 mark for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. As of December 22, Bitcoin's price is down over 10% from its all-time high of above $108,300 recorded on December 17, trading at around $97,150. This 10% correction has led to a significant drop in social media sentiment, with an average ratio of four to five positive versus negative Bitcoin-related comments. Market intelligence platform Sentiment highlighted this shift in a recent post, noting: “Vocal traders are now showing severe FUD, and that's good news for contrarians who know markets move in the opposite direction of retail's expectations.” Other crypto analysts are also predicting an end to Bitcoin’s current correction below $100,000. Notably, Bitcoin’s daily chart showed three consecutive red candles for the first time since early November, a period that coincided with Donald Trump's US election victory. This historical pattern has led some to speculate that Bitcoin may soon experience a bullish reversal. 3. Interpol Issues "Red Notice" for Hex Founder Richard Heart The international law enforcement organization, Interpol, has issued a "Red Notice" for Richard Schueler, also known as Richard Heart, the founder of Hex. Schueler is wanted by Finnish authorities for allegedly committing tax fraud and assault. A Red Notice is a global request for law enforcement to locate and provisionally arrest a person, but it is not an international arrest warrant. Schueler is also listed on Europe’s most wanted fugitives list, where detailed allegations include physically assaulting a 16-year-old victim and committing tax evasion between June 2, 2020, and April 2, 2024. The issuance of the Red Notice comes just three months after a remand order was initially issued for Schueler on September 13, according to Finnish public broadcaster Yle. This development has sent shockwaves through the crypto community, as Schueler is a well-known figure in the space. These key developments in the crypto world highlight the dynamic nature of the market and the importance of staying informed. As the week progresses, traders and investors should closely monitor these stories and their potential impact on the broader financial landscape..
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by OakleyJM