Beyond Technical Analysis
The Crypto Market Game: How to Win Against Fear and ManipulationDid you really think profiting from the current bull run (a comprehensive upward market) would be easy? Don't be naive. Do you think they’ll let you buy low, hold, and sell high without any struggle? If it were that simple, everyone would be rich. But the truth is: 90% of you will lose. Why? Because the crypto market is not designed for everyone to win.
They will shake you. They will make you doubt everything. They will create panic, causing you to sell at the worst possible moment. Do you know what happens next? The best players in this game buy when there’s fear, not sell—because your panic gives them cheap assets.
This is how the game works: strong hands feed off weak hands. They exaggerate every dip, every correction, every sell-off. They make it look like the end of the world so you abandon everything. And when the market rises again, you’re left sitting there asking, “What just happened?”
This is not an accident. It’s a system. The market rewards patience and punishes weak emotions. The big players already know your thoughts. They know exactly when and how to stir fear, forcing you to give up. When you panic, they profit. They don’t just play the market—they play you. That’s why most people never succeed: they fall into the same traps over and over again.
People don’t realize that dips, FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt), and panic are all part of the plan. But the winners? They block out the noise. They know that fear is temporary, but smart decisions last forever.
We’ve seen this play out hundreds of times. They pump the market after you sell. They take your assets, hold them, and sell them back to you at the top—leaving you with nothing, wondering how it happened.
Don’t play their game. Play your own.
btcusd short appratunityThe unit of account of the bitcoin system is the bitcoin. It is most commonly represented with the symbol ₿ and the currency code BTC. However, the BTC code does not conform to ISO 4217 as BT is the country code of Bhutan, and ISO 4217 requires the first letter used in global commodities to be 'X'. XBT, a code that conforms to ISO 4217 though not officially part of it, is used by Bloomberg L.P.
No uniform capitalization convention exists; some sources use Bitcoin, capitalized, to refer to the technology and network, and bitcoin, lowercase, for the unit of account. The Cambridge Advanced Learner's Dictionary and the Oxford Advanced Learner's Dictionary use the capitalized and lowercase variants without distinction.
One bitcoin is divisible to eight decimal places. : ch. 5 Units for smaller amounts of bitcoin are the millibitcoin (mBTC), equal to 1⁄1000 bitcoin, and the satoshi (sat), representing 1⁄100000000 (one hundred millionth) bitcoin, the smallest amount possible. 100,000 satoshis are one mBTC.
Blockchain
Further information: Blockchain § Structure and design
As a decentralized system, bitcoin operates without a central authority or single administrator, so that anyone can create a new bitcoin address and transact without needing any approval. : ch. 1 This is accomplished through a specialized distributed ledger called a blockchain that records bitcoin transactions.
The blockchain is implemented as an ordered list of blocks. Each block contains a SHA-256 hash of the previous block, chaining them in chronological order. : ch. 7 The blockchain is maintained by a peer-to-peer network. : 215–219 Individual blocks, public addresses, and transactions within blocks are public information, and can be examined using a blockchain explorer.
Nodes validate and broadcast transactions, each maintaining a copy of the blockchain for ownership verification. A new block is created every 10 minutes on average, updating the blockchain across all nodes without central oversight. This process tracks bitcoin spending, ensuring each bitcoin is spent only once. Unlike a traditional ledger that tracks physical currency, bitcoins exist digitally as unspent outputs of transactions. : ch. 5
Why AIrBNB might be the company to watch in 2025Hello,
we see an opportunity for investors to buy Airbnb at the bottom. In this video we go a step further and try and explain why.
While the company's long-term prospects remain strong, short-term headwinds are likely to keep its stock price under pressure. As the travel industry gradually normalizes post-COVID, we anticipate minimal demand erosion for alternative accommodations from ABNB's existing customer base. However, the company's share growth in urban markets continues to lag behind its gains in non-urban regions in recent years, presenting a potential growth opportunity moving forward. In the near term, I anticipate AirBNB's share price will
continue its pullback to around USD 100. However, over the longer term, the company is expected to remain resilient, with an initial price target of USD 170 and a longer-term target of USD 220.88.
All the best & goodluck
Scalping XAU ! Short recovery trend 2645 monday⭐️Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold price (XAU/USD) continues to rebound from the one-month low reached last Thursday, marking its third consecutive day of gains as the new week begins. The metal maintains its upward momentum during the early European session, supported by safe-haven demand fueled by geopolitical tensions and concerns over trade disputes. However, the generally optimistic market sentiment limits further upside for the precious metal.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold is currently sideways in the price range of 2620-2630, short-term recovery trend, target retest range 2645
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2626 - $2624 SL $2621 scalping
TP1: $2632
TP2: $2640
TP3: $2645
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Tesla Q4 2024 Deliveries Expected to Hit Record, but.Tesla's fourth-quarter 2024 delivery figures are anticipated to reach a record high, according to a note from Barclays. Analysts estimate Q4 deliveries at approximately 515,000 units, slightly above the consensus estimate of around 511,000 units, marking a 6% year-over-year increase. Despite these impressive numbers, Barclays believes they will have limited impact on Tesla's stock.
Key Takeaways:
Delivery Estimates: Barclays projects Q4 deliveries to be around 515,000 units, slightly exceeding expectations.
Stock Impact: The delivery numbers are expected to have minimal influence on Tesla's stock, as investors are more focused on the company's long-term opportunities in autonomous driving and artificial intelligence (AI).
Long-Term Growth: Tesla's recent momentum is driven by its potential in the AV/AI sectors rather than short-term delivery metrics.
Future Outlook:
2024 Sales: Barclays forecasts Tesla's full-year 2024 sales at approximately 1.81 million units, aligning with 2023 figures but falling short of the company's guidance for year-over-year growth.
Autonomous Driving and AI: The introduction of "Unsupervised Full Self-Driving" (FSD) in 2025 is expected to bolster Tesla's AV/AI initiatives, mitigating any near-term volume misses.
New Models: The upcoming low-cost model, "Model 2.5," anticipated in the first half of 2025, is seen as a crucial growth driver.
Delivery Growth: CEO Elon Musk suggests 20-30% year-over-year delivery growth in 2025, which Barclays believes will address any concerns from the Q4 figures.
Barclays emphasizes that while the Q4 results are crucial, the stock's recent rally—up 68% post-election versus the S&P 500's 2.6%—reflects positive sentiment on Tesla's long-term potential and technical factors. As the market shifts focus towards future developments, the emphasis remains on Tesla's ability to innovate and lead in the autonomous driving and AI sectors.
AUDJPY potential Buy-to-Sell setupHere at Burnt Candle, we are Bearish for the long haul, however, we might still see price pushing up to our sell area of interest. In the meantime, we would also like to take advantage of the push to the upside if it reaches our buy area of interest.
Remember, clear charts better vision.
Gann Analysis for FTX Token (FTT/USDT) on a Daily TimeframeHello Dear Traders,
Long Term Cycle Target = 9
More Details:
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### **1. Overview of the Chart**
- **Asset:** FTX Token (FTT) against Tether (USDT).
- **Timeframe:** Daily.
- **Gann Levels and Geometry:** The chart shows a Gann square configuration with critical price and time intersections, highlighting significant support and resistance zones.
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### **2. Key Observations**
1. **Current Price:** **3.2805 USDT** (up by **10.45%**).
2. **Major Levels Based on Gann Angles:**
- **0° = 1 USDT:** A strong foundational support level.
- **45° = 1.5625 USDT:** Intermediate support; historically relevant.
- **90° = 2.25 USDT:** Another significant support area, which has held well during recent price action.
- **180° = 4 USDT:** A critical resistance level that may act as a near-term target for bulls.
- **225° = 5.0625 USDT:** Resistance on the mid-term horizon.
- **360° = 9 USDT:** A long-term bullish target if momentum sustains.
3. **Price Interaction with Gann Levels:**
- The price has recently bounced off the **90° level (2.25 USDT)** and is heading towards the **180° level (4 USDT)**.
- Gann diagonals (green and pink lines) indicate potential reversal zones depending on their intersection with price action.
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### **3. Scenarios and Predictions**
#### **Bullish Scenario:**
- **Condition:** A strong breakout above **180° = 4 USDT**, confirmed by sustained price action and volume.
- **Targets:**
- **First Target:** **225° = 5.0625 USDT.**
- **Second Target:** **315° = 7.5625 USDT.**
#### **Bearish Scenario:**
- **Condition:** A rejection at the **180° resistance** and a breakdown below **90° = 2.25 USDT.**
- **Targets:**
- **First Target:** **45° = 1.5625 USDT.**
- **Second Target:** **0° = 1 USDT.**
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### **4. Recommendations**
- **Short-Term Traders:**
- Look for bullish confirmation if the price breaches **4 USDT.**
- Set stop-loss levels slightly below **90° = 2.25 USDT** to minimize downside risks.
- **Long-Term Investors:**
- Monitor the interaction at **180° and 225° levels**.
- Accumulate cautiously near support zones like **90° or 45° levels** for a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
XAU/USD - Sell Limit Opportunity After Liquidity GrabGold (XAU/USD) has swept liquidity above a key resistance zone, creating a strategic sell limit setup. This price action indicates a potential bearish reversal as smart money absorbs buying pressure.
Key Observations:
Liquidity Sweep: The price surged above a significant resistance level, clearing stop-losses and trapping buyers in the process.
Market Structure: Emerging bearish rejection signals, such as wicks and declining momentum, suggest a potential shift to the downside.
Optimal Entry: A sell limit at is positioned to capitalize on the anticipated reversal.
Trade Plan:
Entry: Sell limit at , aligned with the liquidity grab.
Stop Loss: Placed above the recent liquidity sweep to manage risk.
Take Profit: Targeting support levels at for a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Risk Management:
This trade setup leverages the liquidity grab for a high-probability reversal, but disciplined risk management and careful position sizing are crucial. Monitor price action for confirmation of bearish intent before executing the trade.
Micron Technology ($MU): Breaking Resistance or Building Moment
"Undervalued tech stocks are like treasure maps—the trick is knowing where the 'X' marks the breakout. Let’s see where NASDAQ:MU might lead us."
Valuation Insight:
"Micron Technology ( NASDAQ:MU ) is trading at $87.50, with valuation metrics that scream potential:
P/E Ratio: 10.5—well below industry averages.
P/B Ratio: 1.7—value investors, take note.
EV/Revenue Ratio: 3.5—a discount on future growth."
Key Resistance Levels to Watch:
$97.18 – The First Test 🎯
"This level marks the first hurdle for $MU. A breakout above could indicate momentum building toward a bullish trend."
$118.54 – The Big Break ⚡
"Crossing this level would confirm renewed bullish sentiment. Look for strong volume as a signal for sustained movement."
$181.66 – The Bullish Peak 🏔️
"While distant, this historical high serves as a long-term target for investors betting on sustained industry growth."
Growth Catalysts:
AI and 5G Demand: DRAM and NAND memory are critical for emerging technologies.
Institutional Activity: Dark pool orders and market-on-close volume indicate increased interest from big players.
Risks to Watch:
Cyclical Nature: Overproduction or slowing demand could impact prices.
Macroeconomic Headwinds: Higher interest rates might dampen near-term spending in tech.
Conclusion:
" NASDAQ:MU is undervalued and approaching critical levels—$97.18, $118.54, and $181.66—that could define its path forward. Keep these zones on your radar and watch for volume to validate potential moves."
US30 - Sell Limit Opportunity After Liquidity GrabThe US30 index has reached a key liquidity zone above resistance, setting up a compelling sell limit opportunity. This price action suggests the market has cleared stop-losses and may be primed for a bearish reversal.
Key Observations:
Liquidity Sweep: The price spiked above a critical resistance level, triggering stop-losses and trapping breakout buyers.
Market Structure: Emerging bearish signals, including rejection candles and a loss of bullish momentum, indicate potential downside movement.
Optimal Entry: A sell limit at aligns with the liquidity grab and the anticipated reversal zone.
Trade Plan:
Entry: Sell limit at , expecting a move downward from the liquidity zone.
Stop Loss: Above the liquidity sweep to protect against false breakouts.
Take Profit: Targeting support levels around for a strong risk-reward ratio.
Risk Management:
This setup capitalizes on a classic liquidity grab, but strict adherence to risk management and position sizing is vital. Monitor price action closely for additional confirmation of bearish momentum.
Reconsider Your Position: MSTR Faces Significant Volatility Ahea
- Recent Performance: MicroStrategy has seen its stock price crash approximately
45% from prior highs of $548 to around $300, aligning closely with Bitcoin's
erratic behavior. This substantial drop raises questions about the company's
future, viability, and its heavily criticized Bitcoin accumulation strategy.
The stock's volatility underscores its correlation with cryptocurrency
market fluctuations, making it essential for investors to keep track of
Bitcoin trends.
- Key Insights: Investors should approach MicroStrategy with caution amidst this
turbulent phase. The aggressive use of debt to fund Bitcoin purchases raises
significant risk concerns, as continued declines in Bitcoin could
drastically impact MSTR's share price. The recent lapse in enthusiasm
surrounding the company indicates a shift in market sentiment that may prove
detrimental unless there's a recovery in Bitcoin prices.
- Expert Analysis: Experts appear to be developing a bearish outlook on
MicroStrategy, with growing skepticism regarding its investment strategy and
financial stability. The risk has been compared to a potential Ponzi scheme,
reinforcing the notion that deeper price drops in Bitcoin could lead to
catastrophic consequences for MSTR, driving its stock lower than the current
valuation.
- Price Targets: For the upcoming week, traders should consider the following:
- Next week targets:
- T1: $320
- T2: $340
- Stop levels:
- S1: $290
- S2: $250
- News Impact: Recent speculation that MicroStrategy may suspend Bitcoin
acquisitions could weigh negatively on its market momentum. Potential
restrictions on share transactions or debt financing could further strain
the company's operational strategy and market positioning. Observations on
Bitcoin's pricing dynamics will be crucial as MicroStrategy navigates this
volatile landscape; thus, investors should stay informed on developments to
align their strategies with market conditions.
In conclusion, MicroStrategy presents a precarious investment landscape
primarily dictated by the performance of Bitcoin. Given the inherent risks
involved, thorough evaluation and vigilance are essential when contemplating any
trading actions concerning MSTR.
Nvidia poised for potential bullish breakout next week
- Recent Performance: Nvidia has exhibited notable volatility in the market,
managing to score over 3% gains within the past week. The stock has remained
a central focus in the tech sector, demonstrating resilience despite broader
market fluctuations. Analysts are now eyeing this volatility, viewing it as
a precursor to further movements, especially as the stock approaches
critical resistance levels.
- Key Insights: Investors should consider Nvidia as a strong buy opportunity,
particularly due to its ability to hold above crucial price thresholds. A
breakout beyond the resistance range of $136 to $137 could catalyze a more
significant upward trend. The continued strength in the AI sector serves as
a major growth driver, underscoring Nvidia's potential in a rapidly evolving
technology landscape.
- Expert Analysis: The market sentiment surrounding Nvidia is overwhelmingly
optimistic. Analysts agree on the high probability of a breakout, which if
achieved, would mark a bullish shift for the stock. They stress that
maintaining prices above key support levels is essential for sustaining
positive momentum, as Nvidia continues to lead in the AI space amid rising
market demand.
- Price Targets: Based on current market analysis, the price targets for next
week are as follows:
- Next week targets: T1 = 138, T2 = 144
- Stop levels: S1 = 132, S2 = 125
- News Impact: Nvidia has recently gained attention due to its strategic
partnerships aimed at enhancing AI capabilities, including significant
collaborations in India. The company anticipates remarkable revenue growth
driven by the demand for its AI-based products, forecasting a 79% increase.
The introduction of the new Blackwell AI processor has further excited
analysts and investors alike, reinforcing Nvidia's strong market position.
Overall, solid performance metrics, expert optimism, significant support and
resistance levels, and important partnerships collectively suggest Nvidia is
well-positioned for growth in the upcoming week.
Aiming for Bullish Momentum: PLTR Set for Next WeekRecent Performance: Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has seen a notable rise in
its stock price following its inclusion in the NASDAQ 100. The market has
reacted positively, reflecting strong investor interest underpinned by solid
earnings driven by government contracts and advancements in AI. Analysts
predict potential hurdles at the resistance levels of $82 to $85, while a
key support level around $75 serves as a safety net against drastic
declines.
- Key Insights: Investors should pay attention to the potential bullish momentum
as PLTR approaches critical resistance levels. The rapid growth in
government contracts coupled with strategic partnerships positions the
company well for continued expansion, especially in the defense sector.
However, the mixed sentiments on valuation sustainability suggest a need for
cautious trading and monitoring market movements closely.
- Expert Analysis: Market sentiment on PLTR is generally optimistic despite the
polarized views from analysts. While some voices express concerns regarding
valuation, the prevailing sentiment leans towards confidence in Palantir's
AI capabilities and government initiatives. This mixed but predominantly
bullish sentiment could drive price movements in the upcoming week.
- Price Targets: Based on professional traders' insights: Next week targets: T1
= 84, T2 = 87. Stop levels: S1 = 75, S2 = 73. This positioning allows for a
safeguarded long strategy while targeting upside potential in line with
recent market performance.
- News Impact: Recent strategic moves, such as the partnership with Booz Allen
Hamilton, highlight Palantir's ongoing efforts to secure more government
contracts. The impressive 40% year-over-year increase in US government
revenue further underscores this trend, alongside the FedRAMP High
authorization for federal cloud services. These developments not only
bolster Palantir's credibility but also enhance growth prospects, positively
influencing market sentiment.
Reacting to Market Volatility: Visa Trading Insights for Next We- Recent Performance: Visa has experienced fluctuations along with the broader
market in recent weeks. The current price stands at 317.71, reflecting the
overall market volatility driven by concerns around interest rates and
economic indicators. Despite the turmoil, Visa's resilience and established
market position suggest a strong foundation for future performance.
- Key Insights: Investors should closely monitor Visa's stock as potential
buying opportunities may arise if broader market sentiment stabilizes. Given
the current price range, Visa is well-positioned to benefit if the market
rebounds, particularly through any positive movements in consumer spending
trends.
- Expert Analysis: Market sentiment is mixed, with analysts advising caution
before committing to new positions. Although some sectors, especially
technology, show promise, the prevailing negativity could lead to short-term
setbacks. Experts recommend watching key levels for signs of a bottom
formation that could favor Visa's stock.
- Price Targets:
Next week targets are set at T1 = 330, T2 = 345.
Stop levels are established at S1 = 310, S2 = 295,
- News Impact: The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts and upcoming
economic data releases, particularly those concerning consumer spending, are
pivotal for Visa. Market participants should remain vigilant for any changes
in economic outlook that could impact transaction volumes and overall
revenue growth for Visa.
Invest in Tesla for a Potential Bounce Back Next Week
Tesla has recently faced significant volatility, retreating sharply from
previous highs around $488 to a current level of $421.06. This price movement
reflects persistent selling pressure and profit-taking among investors, with the
stock closing near critical support levels. The broader tech sector's mixed
performance further complicates investor sentiment, as stocks like Apple and
Amazon also experience fluctuations. Amid this backdrop, many analysts remain
optimistic about Tesla's potential, particularly due to advancements in low-cost
electric vehicles and its autonomous driving technology.
Investors should note certain actionable insights: the current support sits at
$419 and $415, and a breach of these levels could signal further declines
towards $400. Conversely, watch resistance levels at $438 and $449.50, as a
breakout above these could indicate a potential bullish reversal. As sentiments
fluctuate, Tesla's recent recall concerning nearly 700,000 vehicles due to a
tire pressure monitoring issue has introduced additional volatility, impacting
short-term trading behavior and investor confidence.
Expert opinions appear divided on Tesla's valuation with some, like Ron Baron,
foreseeing a potential market cap of $5 trillion over the next decade based on
long-term advancements in EV technology. On the other hand, caution arises from
concerns over the stock’s current overvaluation in a bearish market environment.
Traders must keep a keen eye on Tesla's price movements and broader market
conditions as both contribute to the overall sentiment and trading strategies.
For next week, price targets based on professional traders' insights are set as
follows: Next week targets are T1 at $430 and T2 at $440, suggesting a potential
recover if bullish momentum develops. For managing downside risk, stop levels
are set at S1 at $415 and S2 at $410, ensuring that the strategy is aligned with
market fluctuations.
The recall announcement has generated mixed reactions; while providing needed
updates, it raises investor concerns regarding operational integrity and
potential long-term impacts on market confidence. Additionally, Tesla’s ongoing
efforts to develop a new autonomous driving platform and production of low-cost
electric vehicles position it as a key player in the evolving EV market
landscape. Investors will need to monitor these developments closely to assess
their effects on stock performance and market sentiment.
GBP/USD: Bearish to Bullish Reversal SetupHere’s a detailed explanation of my GBP/USD analysis on the 1-hour chart:
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The chart highlights key structural points and psychological levels, forming the basis of my trade setup.
Market Structure and Key Levels:
I identified multiple Break of Structure (BoS) points, signaling the continuation of the prevailing bearish trend. However, the marked Change of Character (CHoCH) indicates a potential reversal as price shows signs of transitioning from bearish to bullish momentum. This CHoCH aligns with a demand zone where price reacted strongly, confirming buyers stepping in.
Weekly Psychological Level:
The 1.2600 level is a crucial psychological barrier. Price initially broke below it but retraced to test it as resistance. This level also aligns with my first take-profit zone, making it an ideal spot to secure partial profits if price moves in my favor.
Entry and Execution Plan:
I refined my entry to a 15-minute order block, represented by the $$$ mark. This zone is where price consolidated before a bullish move, signaling institutional participation. My entry at this level offers a low-risk, high-reward opportunity.
Take-Profit Targets:
I set three take-profit levels to align with key liquidity zones:
Take Profit 1: Around 1.26130, just above the psychological level. This is a conservative target to lock in early gains.
Take Profit 2: Positioned near a higher imbalance region, targeting further bullish momentum.
Take Profit 3: The ultimate target, placed at a liquidity zone higher up on the chart. If price maintains its bullish trajectory, this would yield significant profits.
Risk Management:
Stop-loss is set below the demand zone to protect against invalidation of the setup. This ensures my risk remains limited while giving the trade enough room to play out.
Trade Bias:
The bias shifted from bearish to bullish after the CHoCH and the strong reaction from the demand zone. The setup anticipates a retracement or reversal to test higher levels, with the psychological level acting as the first major hurdle.
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This setup is based on market structure, key levels, and price action, offering a clear roadmap for execution. If price respects my zones, it’s a high-probability trade with solid risk-to-reward potential.