$SPY Post Jackson Hole waterfall now what ? Taking a step back , although a continued down trend in SPY since JAN highs, after post Jackson Hole water fall it appears SPY is ready for another rally.
Barring any Black Swan event , RSI on the daily is approaching oversold and price is near the bottom of the downward channel.
While a "lower low" is still in the cards, the R/R favors the upside here and began scaling in longs for OCT opex. Small size, and will add if price manages to crack below to 375 zone, although we may not get 375 hence the scale in starting today.
Surely shorts from 420+ have feasted well and will start closing/ taking profits off the table and waiting for the next opportunity to reload.
Note, this is a counter trend rally trade , I'm still fairly convinced we stair step down for a while longer with nice rips along the way - a rip I believe is closely approaching !
Cheers
Bearmarket
CVX: Crude Oil blues?Chevron Corporation
Short Term - We look to Sell at 162.55 (stop at 167.91)
Our outlook is bearish. The trend of lower highs is located at 166.80. A firmer opening is expected to challenge bearish resolve. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Further downside is expected.
Our profit targets will be 148.94 and 144.00
Resistance: 165.00 / 182.00 / 200.00
Support: 148.50 / 134.00 / 111.00
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CSPR died in January 2021, like RchainHyperinflation during bear market - same marketcap as we had in 20c in August 2021
The team has bad image - team scolding people in Telegram (already deleted), I have screenshot in case people say I am lying
Not listed on any major exchange since listing - hyped up Binance, never came
Still no use case
Slow chain, slow finality - eth2 coming so completely useless
Same team as RChain was also Casper fork - utterly failed
There is heavy selling pressure from validator - in entire bull market it did 10% up maybe then full retrace. I saw it going up by 10-30% many times during autumn 2021, all to retrace. Casperpad was also a scam - but good enough for final double top
Bitcoin DEAD, 3-4k since BTC supply is lost. China was right.Around 13000 we will see a relief bounce, maybe even a short bull run, but in the end it will drop to zero (with zero I mean 4000, because a lot of BTC are lost)
Why?
1. Crypto offers no value - it is basically thin air. Apple produces devices, Tencent produces software, Gold is used to make jewelry and cannot be created. Bitcoin has zero value. I can create Bitcoin, you can create Bitcoin, scarcity failed
2. When there is inflation, Bitcoin will rise - failed - people want rice and canned fish rather than a piece of digital worthless garbage
3. I can send millions within seconds - really? You need to register on an exchange first step - exchanges that all registered on weird Islands if the exchanges shut down you cannot do anything
4. No safety - forgot password - ruined, lost device - ruined, stable tokens that claim to be safe crash left and right. USDT crashed in May!
5. It is all based on HYPE. 99,9% of tokens from previous bull run are near zero capitalization
6. Defi is ponzi, the late comers pay the interest for the early investors
7. It is very centralized - if you want to cash out or deposit you NEED an exchange!
8. Full of arrogant people who are whales and got lucky, they are extremely greedy, and mock you, karma will pay back. For example a friend who once had 10 Million USD in crypto was bragging on Twitter that he made it, he kept holding on his DeFi tokens like Olympus and likeof, he is now under 100K. Another whale friend had like 100 Million USD at the peak and he is now down to 9 Million, his group asked me to buy Bakeryswap and adviced me on Egg and Taste finance - I went from 30k to 3k to 100k early 2021, to under 1000. yet I made it to 10000 multiple times in bear market. I feel like he owes me, however he is being greedy, every single person in crypto space will be ruined. I asked him, he said he will share profits or gift tokens, nada, nilch. I cannot marry, I cannot have children I cannot study, they ruined me completely. Yet I avoided all crashes! I sold at 53K, and did absolutely nothing. I made money during LUNA crash but lost it because of shorting UNFI that a guy in that group suggested. My point is whales are arrogant and karma will get them, we must crash. Do not trust any whales!
9. 8 again -- some protocols living on leverage and arrogant people like El Salvador president and Michael Saylor who made many people buy the top they think they are safe.
10. We have 20,000 cryptocurrencies, much like dotcom bubble, they need to be flushed out first!
11. We closed weekly and monthly below 200 WMA and we about to break an important BTC support line for first time in history.
HOWEVER IM THANKFUL, thanks to crypto I know best strategy is to work and invest every month into stock market and be patient.
I congratulate the people who made it during previous bull run.
BTC outlook - Bearish trend continues! Here's a quick look at the BTC daily chart. As we can see, the price broke below the bear flag ( Rising channel ) and if the price doesn't hold above the crucial support zone, then we should expect BTC to go down much further. The technical target of the breakdown is down at 11.5k! For now, I do expect us to revisit 18k at least, but let's wait and see what happens here.
It should be mentioned that a lot of strong indicators are showing sell signals at current prices, and one should take note of that. Also, the S&P 500 is not showing much strength and is very likely to go down from its current price level.
I expect BTC to end up at the 9-10k level in this bear market due to the CME gap at 9.7k, BUT I could be very wrong!!
Trade safe!
-------------------------------------------
What Is a Wedge in the context of trading?:
"A wedge is a price pattern marked by converging trend lines on a price chart. The two trend lines are drawn to connect the respective highs and lows of a price series throughout 10 to 50 periods. The lines show that the highs and the lows are either rising or falling and differing rates, giving the appearance of a wedge as the lines approach a convergence. Wedge-shaped trend lines are considered useful indicators of a potential reversal in price action by technical analysts.
Key Takeaways for Falling wedges:
1. Wedge patterns are usually characterized by converging trend lines over 10 to 50 trading periods.
2. The patterns may be considered rising or falling wedges depending on their direction.
3. These patterns have an unusually good track record for forecasting price reversals."
-------------------------------------------
If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D
Follow me for daily profitable trading setups
BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will fall as well. Trade safe!
BTC/USDT (1D) - Struggling to get higher, Rising wedge formed ?Hi Traders and Crypto Investors...
As You can see, BTC and entire Stock market is moving UP for recent 4-5 weeks.
Is it Impulsive or Corrective move ?
In my opinion its Correction or partial Short-take profit and re-entry of Shorts, after 50% bounce from Lows. (Around 17k at big exchanges, some small exchanges BTC touched almost 14K.)
So according to Technical analysis of smaller Timeframe like 2H-4H we are forming Rising wedge with ending diagonal in wave c.
More detailed count is attached.
Why do I think BTC will continue to Fall ?
= Coming recession in China / US / Europe. (Check fresh data from CHina = Economy slowing, Housing market BIG problems, central bank decreased interest rate by 0,1% today...)
= Dollar Index is forming Bull Flag. (Chart Attached). = Risk OFF mode for everything.
Let me know what is your opinion, or post your Wave count.
Have a green day ;)
Long term BTC BTC currently stuck below the 200 EMA and December '17's peak. RSI bearish crossover could suggest a revisit of the local bottom at ~$17k. Failure to hold that level and 14k is the next key level which coincides with the same drawdown as last bear market of ~80% over a full year of retracement.
This kind of price action would suggest dropping much further down than the 200EMA which has always been historic support. A lot of bitcoins future is in the hands of traditional indices.
Not financial advice
What to do in a Bear market?A few tips for making it through the bear market:
Profile Rebalancing
Rebalancing a portfolio means adjusting the weightings of the different asset classes in your investment portfolio. This is achieved by buying or selling assets, which changes the weighting of a specific asset class.
Dollar Cost Average
It is an investment strategy that aims to reduce the impact of volatility on the purchase of assets. It involves buying equal amounts of the asset at regular intervals.
Re-evaluate Your Holdings
Choosing investments is just the beginning of your work as an investor. As time goes by, you'll need to monitor the performance of these investments to see how they are working together in your portfolio to help you progress toward your goals. Generally speaking, progress means that your portfolio value is steadily increasing, even though one or more of your investments may have lost value.
If your investments are not showing any gains or your account value is slipping, you'll have to determine why, and decide on your next move. To free up money to make these new purchases, you may want to sell individual investments that have not performed well, while not abandoning the asset allocation you've selected as appropriate.
Fundamental Analysis
To see if a cryptocurrency has an intrinsic value that isn't reflected in its current market price, you can employ a fundamental analysis strategy, which is the act of investigating and evaluating an investment to forecast its future worth. As an investor, you can then use this information to tactically buy or sell positions based on whether the coin is overpriced or underpriced, even while bearing in mind that cryptocurrency prices are volatile. After all, even well-known currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are subject to price fluctuations.
Planning for Long-Term
Big picture trading is about taking everything into account and making an informed decision. In my opinion, it's one of the best trading methods. A branch of hedge funds, known as Global Macro funds, takes this approach.
Do Nothing for a While
If you are stressed and freaked out from big loss do nothing for a while and let your mind rest.
What else would you add to this list?
BITCOIN MAY FALL TO 10K IN Q4 2022This is a follow up to my previous idea
I posted an idea a few months ago about how BTC likely won't go any higher than 200 DMA, and so far it has been following my outlook very closely.
Bitcoin bearish outlook using 2018 data.
I have been closely observing 2018 bear crypto bear market and have been studying it since last year.
There are quite a lot of similarities between 2022 bear market and the 2018 bear market. If you look at the charts, some of these are quite obvious such as
- Blow off top in Q4 2017/2021
- A little rally in spring 2018/2022
- Couple red months in a row in Q2/Q3 2018/2022
- Dead cat bounce in summer, green monthly candle in 2018/2022
So now we will look at what the BTC price action may look like if it continues to follow 2018.
- The next couple months, like Q4 2018, would see the bottom of this bear market and have prices get to levels that could take many people by surprise.
- November/December 2018 saw the market bottom out and gave a great opportunity of a life time, this may be the case again.
- Also there are more factors here than just following 2018, such as:
- More interest rate hikes
- Negative GDP
- Quantitative tightening
- Inflation continuing to get worse with soaring prices
- Another possible covid variant
- More countries have economic collapses
- Gigantic stock market crash, perhaps as much as 50% as per Michael Burry's outlook
- Traders and retail choosing to cash out to pay their loans to avoid higher interests, or to afford basic needs with higher prices
- People losing their jobs and more getting laid, having to take out their investments to support their families
I have only charted upto Jan 2024, simply because it may be a bit harder to predict what happens after. In 2020 we got the covid crash, odds of another unpredictable global pandemic in 2024 are very slim.
Also, the fed has mentioned that they could possibly start printing again as early as 2024, which also happens to be very close to the Bitcoin halving.
And since we are making this based on past BTC trends, the halving always happens to slowly kick off the next bull market.
To sum up:
A) Bitcoin may fall as low as sub $10,000 in Q4
B) Mini bull market in first half of 2023, similar to 2019
C) Resume bear market in second half of 2023, similar to 2019
D) Getting to end the bear market in early 2024 and starting the next big bull market, similar to 2020
BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDTPERP COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD BINANCEUS:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD BNC:BLX NASDAQ:BLX BITMEX:XBT FTX:BTCUSD FTX:BTCUSDT BYBIT:BTCUSDC BYBIT:BTCUSD KUCOIN:BTCUSDT BITFINEX:BTCUSD
DO NOT BUY BITCOIN YET … The whole entire stock market and crypto are going to be crashing much worse.
Why? - monkeypox/Orthopoxvirus 18,400 cases
- monkeypox global cases 50,000
COVID-19 aka SARS-Cov-2
- Global: 602 million cases / Deaths: 6.50 million
USA: 94.2 million cases/ deaths: 1.04 million
The Epidemic Is NOT OVER.
Now for the government
On September 1st they going to take 90 billion off the market which will cause volatile insane of all the markets and cryptos.
Last time in June the took 40 billion out which is why cause everything to crash.
As for bitcoin we are still in a high sell Pressure we aren’t bottom yet. 12K along with a dip has stronger floors & 10K with a dip as well which will cause the bulls to take the full recovery.. if I were you please do not buy bitcoin yet it’s still too early and we aren’t bottom yet.
Stay safe
Commence The PumpHello Friends
Since August 14th Eth has been moving down slowly in what I believe is a beautiful flag (or corrective channel pattern as I like to call it).
These corrective channels show up across every asset on Higher and lower time frames.
In fact, almost every multi year bear market correction resembles these channel like structures.
From Bitcoin during the 2017 Bear Market, to AMZN during the Dot com crash, this pattern has distinct characteristics such as:
1. A quick move down with no consolidation or definitive peak formed. (Notice how on August 14th Eth Dropped after only a day and a half of consolidation). This isnt always the case in every pattern.
2. Choppy behavior
3.Usually includes one or multiple rallies between moves down (People call these bear market Rallies)
4.Usually consists of 2-4 lows formed in the channel before reversing and breaking to the upside.
Now back to this current Eth corrective channel on the lower time frames that we're looking at.
I believe we're at the tail end of one of these corrections I described above and 1 of 2 things happen in the near future;
1.The 2 fresh lows the channel has put in are adequate, the pattern is complete, and Eth gets sent back above $2,000.
2.Eth decides "Hey lets give these mfers some more pain" and puts in a third low in the channel around $1200-$1300, before completing the pattern and sending us back above 2k.
The only reason I have so much conviction in this outcome of $2000+ eth again soon, is because I've seen these corrective channel patterns play out hundreds of times in Crypto, stocks, forex, medals, and even NFT charts...Over several years.
But What would invalidate this pattern you ask?
A Straight spike down from here to around $1000 would destroy the channel and invalidate the trade for me. But I would be shocked if that happened.
Cheers guys,
Hope this helped.
what if we distribute further in major indices?spx is in a correction wave of a terminal thrust distributively, and if we sink we distribute further. the .382, tram, and sss ma are levels of resistance and .618 and lower anchored vwap band are levels of support, .5 and nearby levels are pivot, but we may trend much lower in major indices. there are still bullish scenarios marked out and fib retrace levels are a guide as well as sss signal and qqe entries.
More red to come, slight reprieve next weekHere is the plan for the near term. Still looks like we are in the tail end of Intermediate wave 1 inside of Primary wave 5. Looks like we are in for big drops after the Fed meeting, but the inflation report may remain tame in the short-term.
The estimated path for the rest of Primary wave 5 is here with the turnover occurring around US elections:
Here is the estimated path for the rest of the correction/recession.
Still hoping for the final bottom by March 2025, could be sooner or later of course.
there is nothing stopping this trainwreckthe nasdaq and big tech are tanking, and theres little in the way of this slide lower. as i said on friday the fed seems determined to punish the leaders of this bear market, pushing it even lower. many targets that would normally be sensible are simply out of reach, which is why i have widened the horizontals just about as far as they could concievably go.
$SPY - scenarios of interestPotential scenarios on $SPY for the upcoming weeks. 0.5 and 0.618 fib retracement and potential reversal. Will be cautious and if buying for swings I'll have stop losses right below in case this theory doesn't prove to be right. We had a strong volume on Friday's selloff, which suggests we can go lower.
ETH/USDT (1D) Long term setup // Ideal Buy Zone ? Hello Traders,
As you an see at this chart, I still think ETH is in Downtrend and need to finish this impulsive wave from the TOP.
The QUestion is: "Is this the wave A or wave C of Correction ?
In both cases we have to finish wave 5 of this corrective move. Also to form double bottom or Lower low with RSI and MACD Konvergence at 1D /1W Chart.
This would be Strong enough signal for me to start DCAing into a position. So expected range is around 700-300 USD per ETH.
Also notice there will be a transition of ETH into Proof of Stake. Many speculated aboutthis "event" and bought the last dip.
So what could go wrong ? :D :D
Lets see in 1-2 months if the entire market goes down including BTC/ETH. (They are highly correlated with Risk-ON assets, so DXY will most likely take them down.)
If so, I will start to look for most promising projects and start accumulating despite current Mindset at Stock and Crypto markets. ;)
Take care, trade safe and enjoy the ride,
Bottom will be in December most likely: rising wedge on invertedSeptember: 15-16k per BTC, run up to 19.5K by October, resistance
October end: dump to 14.8k per BTC run to 16.7k by December
December: bottom - 12-13k
This coincides with 2018, the bottom was also in December.
The moment you see a double retest and a bullish divergence shows we are in bottom. But RSI keeps going to the high and the price is much lower, which is extremely bearish
its pretty obvious the fed seems determined to tank this markettechnology is not playing the feds game, and they are rubbing elbows with china especially where semiconductors are concerned. the dollar is the worlds reserve currency, and big corporations dont like a populace with buying power. the job of the reserve banks is to assist borrowers while preserving the lenders capacity, and with this particular administration volatility seems to be the most profitable route. this means one thing. the bear market rally everyone feared is here. im predicting a dead cat bounce followed by continued downside.
BTC Breaking to the downside - target is 11.5k!!Here's a quick look at the BTC daily chart. As we can see, the price is currently breaking below the bear flag (Rising channel) and if we get a daily candle close below it, the target is down at 11.5k! Not saying it will get to 11k for sure but that's the technical target. For now, I do expect us to revisit 18k at least, but let's wait and see what happens here.
It should be mentioned that a lot of strong indicators are showing sell signals at current prices, and one should take note of that. Also, the S&P 500 is not showing much strength and is very likely to go down from its current price level.
I expect BTC to end up at the 9-10k level in this bear market due to the CME gap at 9.7k, BUT I could be very wrong!!
Trade safe!
-------------------------------------------
What Is a Wedge in the context of trading?:
"A wedge is a price pattern marked by converging trend lines on a price chart. The two trend lines are drawn to connect the respective highs and lows of a price series over the course of 10 to 50 periods. The lines show that the highs and the lows are either rising or falling and differing rates, giving the appearance of a wedge as the lines approach a convergence. Wedge-shaped trend lines are considered useful indicators of a potential reversal in price action by technical analysts.
Key Takeaways for Falling wedges:
1. Wedge patterns are usually characterized by converging trend lines over 10 to 50 trading periods.
2. The patterns may be considered rising or falling wedges depending on their direction.
3. These patterns have an unusually good track record for forecasting price reversals."
-------------------------------------------
If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D
Follow me for daily profitable trading setups
BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will fall as well. Trade safe!