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Bearmarket

The Depression of 2022-2024In a severe economic contraction with unemployment above 10% and interest rates above 5% ( mortgage rates above 8%) puts the S&P's probable trough multiple below 10. My projections based off of: the contractions of 1920-1921 & 1929-1933, the current data on manufacturing and services in the USA and around the world, and the money supply. 100-125 earnings per share at a multiple of 10 would put the S&P below 1250 at its potential trough. Current S&P Earnings projections expect some to no growth, but I expect Q3 2023 S&P EPS to have contracted by at least 50% from levels it reached at its peak.
SP:SPXShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
Bitcoin monthly delta volume divergence is the largest everThe total volume for bitcoin this month on binance BTC/USDT is the largest on record. If we look to cumulative delta volume, we can see the insanely large divergence going into the monthly close. This suggests buyers are stepping in and absorbing a lot of selling volume. Not only that, the CVD has pushed back up above the 20MA. Times of divergence in CVD suggest a change in momentum. The higher the timeframe, the more significant. You can see a similar event on the COVID 1M candle in March '20 where the candle was bearish but delta volume showed buyers soaking up the sell volume. This is an important time for bitcoin and crypto. Currency and bond markets in turmoil, major companies are facing slowing growth, employment etc and the macroeconomic outlook looks bleak. If bitcoin is to show its value, its here, otherwise... run. NB: There are inherent "issues" with CVD that one should understand when interpreting it. The official tradingview CVD indicator gives a great summary about this.
Long
by limetoast
Key to this Market: Bond Yields & USDSo we gapped down yesterday if you didn't notice. I guess the market didn't like what Powell had to say. But overall, yesterday had a even amount of buyers and sellers. What we're waiting for is the Octobers payroll number that's due to come out an hour before market open. Now, expected is 205k. If this number comes in higher than 205k, the market really isn't going to like that and we'll head lower. If it comes in lower, then.... that could give the market a reason to rally higher. But does it make sense to go higher today after yesterday and Wednesday's action? I think the markets are most likely heading lower. The key to this market is Bond yields and the US Dollar. If they go up, market is going to sell off. They come down, market rallies. It's what's been driving this market. I'm more concerned about the Nasdaq. Yesterday, big cap tech was just getting a beating. And if the selling continues with these big dogs, we will go lower. The markets are going to want to test those lows again and fast. This is where I'd want to see 40,50,60 on the VIX if the selling accelerates. Futures are currently trading at 3758 at the time of writing. So as of now, it looks like we're gaping up. However, the payroll numbers come out an hour before and if the markets don't like the number, we could turn around in futures right before open and head lower. We'll see what happens. Plan for the Day: There's a small chance of a rally that could happen today. If we do, I'll just sit on my hands and watch the market. I'm still holding some shorts with plenty of time. I just need to know if I should add to my shorts. If we gap lower, then I'll add to my short positions and follow my levels down. Keep in mind that markets usually don't bottom on Fridays. Be patient, stay disciplined and trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPXShort
by MMOTA_
DAX crosses the 100 day EMA for the third time this yearThe DAX30 has once again crossed the 100 day EMA for the third time this year. After the previous two crosses, the index went ahead to lose an average of 15%. The index has already reached a trough of 27.55% this year with each drop weakening and bear exhaustion showing up as evident from MACD divergence. The index has priced in a lot of bad news including the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, high inflation pressuring consumers budgets and ECB rate hikes. It is highly unlikely that a recession in Europe has been priced in. The BoE acknowledged that the UK entered a recession in Q3. Eurozone PMIs released this week showed that manufacturing is already in recession territory. Pessimism in the sector is still high but supply chain pressures seem to be falling amidst falling orders. The question on my mind is how deep the recession in Europe will be and how long it will last. I'm currently bearish on European indices as bullish sentiment or lack of bearish price action shows a disconnect from fundamentals. Looking at volume flow (FDAX futures), it can be seen that short positions have largely reduced from a peak of 125K in September to the current 33K. Long positions have also fallen from 134K in Oct to 92K. This implies that the current bullish price action has no legs. This can be collaborated with On Balance Volume showing that inflows might have peaked at the August - September highs. In summary, this is why I'm still bearish and looking to sell the rips: Recession in Europe not priced in or at least partly priced in. Inflation is still a sore thorn for Europe with YoY increases crossing the 10% mark. Volume flows for traders are showing signs for peaking.
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
SPY 52 WEEK LOW INCOMING?With the fed set to continue raising rates through 2022 I do not see a bottom in sight. Presented above I map out the two most possible scenarios in my opinion. The December fed meeting is the most important meeting coming post midterms. The November meeting this week will answer a few short term questions but the real question is do we begin slowing in December? If I had to answer the question above today the answer would be no! Based off the data we have received this month inflation is not slowing and unemployment is still low. The dollar has began to cool off, bonds & equities are getting some relief which provides more liquidity to the downside. The next week may become volatile or even a bit ranged bound as we wait on new data but I believe the end story is all the same. Spy breaking above the bear trend and 200ma invalidates my thesis. Fed rate slow also invalidates my thesis.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Ericc100k
3
FED DAY!!!Good morning! Well.....yesterday's down day I'm assuming was because of the JOLTS Report. Employment openings for the month totaled 10.72 million. Estimated 9.85 million. So, well above. This is something the FED does not want to see. It doesn't help inflation. But again, everyone wants to hear what J Powell has to say today. What could happen after he speaks and in the coming days? Although we are above the 50 day, I feel that there are more elements of a bear market. We could be in the finishing days of the ABC correction of this bear rally before rolling over. And, I'd still be ok with seeing the market heading to 3970ish, 4010ish. The price action at those levels will really tell me if this is a bear rally or not. So when will we get our pivot from the Fed? I really don't think we'll see a change in an upward direction until early 2023. Maybe February or March we could see a final low. Especially if we get another .75 in December. Plan for today: If we get a 2%, 3% up day, I'm not going to go chase it. We could trade sideways the next couple days before we make the next move. If we push to 3970ish, 4010ish, I will monitor the price action and volume to pre-determine next week's possible outlook. And if the market doesn't like what J Powell has to say today and we sell off....well, I'll start to manage my short positions I'm currently holding and follow my levels down. Stay disciplined, be patient, trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPXShort
by MMOTA_
1
PIN: Gains will be capped?!Pinterest Intraday - We look to Sell at 25.99 (stop at 27.91) We are trading within a Bullish Ascending Triangle formation. Neckline resistance 26.00. Resistance could prove difficult to breakdown. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 21.38 and 20.00 Resistance: 26.00 / 38.00 / 50.00 Support: 21.00 / 16.00 / 10 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre
NYSE:PINSShort
by VantageMarkets
Taf's Gun to the HeadTrade Idea: Selling Dow at market Reasoning : Selling on rejection from supply zone (32200-32500) and a bearish head and shoulders on an intraday basis(although not validated yet) Entry:32048 TP: 31138 SL: 32416 RR: 2.47 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses . There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
TVC:DJIShort
by Signal_Centre1
1
What to look for during a Bear Market Correction?JS-Masterclass #4: What to look for during a Bear Market Correction? Many undisciplined traders have suffered significant losses during the current bear market correction. Professional and disciplined traders are staying on the sidelines and preserve their hard-earned capital while waiting for better times. The good news is that every bear market will eventually turn into a bull market and new opportunities will show up when only very few people expect it. Leading stocks emerge from bull markets, sometimes long before the major indices reach their lows and start a new uptrend. History shows that more than 96 % of superperformance stocks emerge from bear markets or general market corrections. Most stock market experts are aligned that the current bear market will end soon, some say it bottomed already. So what to do now? Continue to do your homework while the market is down and you will be prepared to make big profits when it turns up. Stay disciplined and look for the following: 1. Stocks hitting the 52-week high list. 2. Stocks that corrected the least amount during the market’s declining period trading within 25% of a 52-week high (the closer to a new high the better). 3. Stocks that surged in price off the market lows (the largest percentage movers). 4. Stocks that are base-building and consolidating within the context of a long-term uptrend. 5. A proliferation of stocks setting up and emerging through proper buy points out of bases. 6. Accumulation in the major averages at or around the time the leaders start breaking out.
Education
by JS_TechTrading
Chart Patterns - Bear Market Scenario Hi there, i have been sharing the chart patterns which are seen on any type of price charts. (CANDLESTICK CHART) and after research and experience, i see that the price move via various ways or concepts. as per my experience, i see that the price move via waves & correction, and react to supply and demand levels. please share it and one may need it. and this is seen any type of instruments like stocks, forex, commodities, Futures & options. crypto. etc. in time frame for BEAR MARKETS ONLY. Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves. we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle. Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price. Keep it simple, keep it Unique. please keep your comments useful & respectful. Thanks for your support.... Tradelikemee Academy
NSE:PATANJALIEducation
by Tradelikemee
Large Cap Tech Earnings Disappoint (Short Position Active)Yesterday, we finished with a nice green Bullish candle ahead of Google and Microsoft's earnings. Shortly afer the bell, Google fell about 6% and Microsoft around 2%. That's not catastrophic in any way, but it will be difficult for the markets to continue to rally without their participation. And that was only two out of the five large tech companies that make up about 20% of the S&P. So what could happen today? I'd be looking for an inside candle, Doji like candle bouncing in between 3865ish-3835ish and tomorrow will tell us more the direction of the market. Now, don't get me wrong, this upward trend we have has been improving, with now only 66% of stocks below their 50 day and 34% above the 20 day. But this upward trend is looking more to be like an ABC correction to me. A few weeks ago I posted an idea that we were forming a cup and handle pattern and if you take a closer look, it's somewhat playing out. It's not the most attractive cup and handle, but it's there. If you think about it, we've had about an 18% downward move since about August, so we were do for some type of correction. These are characteristics of bear markets. And even if we break out above the 50 day, I'm not immediately changing Bullish. Counter Trend Break outs are not ideal. Especially when we still have a declining 50 day. Overall, tomorrow is going to be more of a critical day after we hear from the other three tech giants. If this cup and handle pattern plays out, I could see some significant downside in the coming weeks. I did enter a short position yesterday. Nothing too aggressive, as I want to see how these next couple days play out. If this decides to roll over, than I'll continue to add to my short position. Position size accordingly, risk manage, be patient and stay disciplined. Happy Trading!
SP:SPXShort
by MMOTA_
Adidas - Outlook downgrade supports a bearish thesis Adidas is another company confirming what we laid out some time ago - a trouble brewing during the current earning season, supporting our notion about the stock market progressing in the second stage of the downtrend. That being said, the company reported its quarterly earnings, after which the stock fell approximately 10%. The report highlighted deteriorating demand and adjustment of the outlook for the rest of 2022 while also pointing out a build-up in inventories. We expect the same trend to continue among other companies and strengthen during the next earning season concerning Q4 2022. Therefore, we voice a word of caution to investors as this will lead the market slowly but surely into the 3rd stage of the bear market. Illustration 1.01 Moving averages continue to reflect the bearish conditions on the daily chart of Adidas stock. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish but also reaching oversold levels for the short term. Illustration 1.02 The weekly chart of Adidas also shows bearish conditions between two moving averages. However, the price deviated too far from the 20-week SMA, making a case for a short-term bounce toward it. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish but also reaching oversold levels for the short term. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
XETR:ADSShort
by Tradersweekly
14
BTCUSDT Deep Crab, CMF & RSI fractalAs we can see on this 1D chart, BTCUSDT can be ready to drop as Chaikin Money Flow and RSI correlations seems to be close to repeat signals for a potential drop. A target for this possible impulsive bearish wave is a Deep Crab harmonic pattern aiming the bottom from this consolidation. A strong pullback can occurs @ the support area. For an effective signal to exit of this trade the LSMA of 28 periods breakout can be a good indicator to avoid of a non-profitable consolidation phase after a potential 10% average downward. All the profitable trend tends to stay below 28LSMA due to the oversold condition on RSI. All the key levels are displayed on this chart.
Short
by firmestudio
1
Down Side Playing Out?After yesterday's candle, downside is looking more probable now. Bulls had a chance to stay above the 20 EMA, but were not successful. At the time of writing, Futures are trading at about 3645ish down 0.82%. Do we visit 3600 today? May 3580? We could dip down to 3570 and recover by EOD to finish back at 3645 or 3600. That would tell me that the market wants to wait for earnings next week before it continues to sell more. The last 4 or 5 Fridays we've had, were all down days. So, will today be different? The Purple line is the Feb. 20th 2020 high right before we had the COVID drop. That is one of my target points that I would anticipate to come by next week. Possibly by the beginning of November. Next week could give us a clearer picture as to what's to come. At the beginning of the month, I thought we were going to come down hard to 3400 fast. But after watching what's been happening the last couple weeks, this is looking more like a slow grind down to 3400. Yesterday I said that we could finish the year at around 3600ish, after our Santa Clause Rally. How? I looked at the monthly chart, and as of now, it's a DOJI. So let's say we finish the month at 3400. That would give us a similar candle like we had in August. Then look how September played out. If we close the month at 3400ish, and volatility continues to creep up, then 2900 is a possibility late November or maybe even beginning of December? That would be more enticing for a Santa Clause Rally come the start of December. Again, I'd need to see the VIX get between 40-50 first before I consider any upside in the market. Be patient, react, trade the market in front of you and stay disciplined. Happy trading everyone!
SP:SPXShort
by MMOTA_
MSFT: Bearish channel drive?!Microsoft Short Term - We look to Sell at 238.54 (stop at 249.55) Trading within a Bearish Channel formation. Selling spikes offers good risk/reward. Further downside is expected. Our expectation now is for this swing lower to continue towards the bottom of the trend channel, to complete a correction before buyers return. Our profit targets will be 211.20 and 200.00 Resistance: 240.00 / 292.00 / 317.00 Support: 219.00 / 200.00 / 190.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by VantageMarkets
AA: Bad earnings report will push down?Alcoa Corporation Intraday - We look to Sell at 37.00 (stop at 41.12) This stock has recently been in the news headlines. A sequence of daily lower lows and highs has been posted. We can see no technical reason for a change of trend. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 37.00 level. Our profit targets will be 27.48 and 22.00 Resistance: 41.00 / 58.00 / 80.00 Support: 27.50 / 17.50 / 10.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:AAShort
by VantageMarkets