NASDAQ MORE DOWNSIDE!I still see downside in 2023, the chart is showing a similar pattern to the DOTCOM BUBBLE.
I just see bear market rallies and some considerable time until we see a major trend reversal.
We have just finished the 2nd BUBBLE which was led by the creation of BITCOIN which was born out of the Financial Crash in 2008. The age of low interest rates are also over and the time of making easy money is over.
This is just for my own trading journey and pure speculation, if you enjoy please like and comment below.
Thanks
Bearmarket
BTC at a critical level! Can It break 18.2k?!Here's a quick look at the BTC 6 hr. chart. As we can see, the price has been printing a bigger rising channel, and if the price gets rejected from its current level, we may see a drop to the bottom of the rising channel! If the price breaks above the channel and thereby 18.2k, the price will probably retest the 18.8k level!
A rising channel has a 30% chance of breaking higher, and a 70% chance of breaking lower!
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BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will fall as well. Trade safe!
That's one small step for satoshi, one giant leap for crypto (2)Math will never lie unless you can't do math. This calculation has been going on since the day we started and we so far it's perfectly correct.
What I want to share with you is the following: Gold is always 1 and 9 or 4.5. Gold at a top is 9 and thus the end of a bull run.
Gold at a bottom is always 1 and therefore the end of a bear run. Blue/Pink between these 2 is neutral, we continue with the trend or not.
The lines between them are called noise numbers. Here you often lose the most ..trading it.
The answer should be clear enough. Study the map.
Kind regards, the Woelf of crypto street
Whale you Later!
p.s.
Visit the old post for more information (link to related idea)
Head & shoulders pattern - Not a bullish outlook! - BTCHere's a quick look at the 4 hr. BTC chart. As we can see, the price har recently printed a Head & shoulder pattern. The head and shoulder pattern Is a bearish chart pattern which has a high probability of breaking lower!
If the price breaks below the neckline, the price will probably end up in the support zone or even lower if the price doesn't hold the support zone.
If you're in a Long trade, then a break below the neckline should be your exit/sell.
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BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will fall as well. Trade safe!
KDA price targets for 2022I have another chart for KDA with a cleaner price action moving into the middle of December 2022. I have two price targets which are $0.46 at the 1.68 Fibonacci line and one at $0.59 which is another Fibonacci line. From the previous top, we had a 43% drop in price, and taking the same percentage drop into this recent possible high would bring us down to the 1.68 Fibonacci line. The second drop is so near to the 1.68 that I decided to use this as the stronger price target if we go lower. If Bitcoin does reach a $9500 price target then we could see this crazy low for KDA of $0.46. I also used a measured move on the previous high-to-low shown with the two yellow lines dropping down into the descending channel.
Bitcoin 2022-23 possible bottom As you can see we have a descending channel that has the Bitcoin price at $25k and two points touching the bottom of this descending channel at $17.7k and $15.8k. If we come in contact with this lower (yellow) trendline (mentioned by Gareth Soloway) we could possibly see price action at $9.5k. If this is the case the bottom could well be in this bear market.
S&P 500, Daily, 2008 Analogy - before the worst?I have been considering the 2008 analogy for some time. I tried to find an important price resistance and I found it. In 2008, the worst drops started at 1313 and it was a fibo retracement of about 47,5%. Today, a similarly important level, in my opinion, is the retracement of 3939, which is also about 47,5% fibo. Of course, I don't expect a perfect rebound of the price from that point, as it was with 1313 in 2008. It is also important to look at the VIX index (related idea linked) and the lower time frame structure (by the analogy, there should be no big drops, but confirmation in the medium and short-term structure - 1H/15m). If the swing low is broken, I will be looking at the momentum in order to predict the bottom. Personally, I think the March 2020 low will be broken. In 2008, we also had a break of the bear market low after the dotcom bubble.
Of such fundamental matters that indicate the further course of the bear market, I can include, for example:
- inverted yield curves ,
- a huge divergence between T10Y2Y and T10Y3M before the curve is inverted,
- a divergence between Real and Nominal Disposable Personal Income (Nominal is rising, Real is in decline),
- a divergence between Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade (is rising) and Advance Real Retail and Food Services Sales (in decline) since March 2021,
- the recessionary PMI.
And that is all I wanted to convey to you.
Not investment advice, only my own opinion.
IS THE RALLY FINALLY OVER?SPY
We had two scenarios yesterday during our stream
1.) Preferred scenario would be for the spy to pullback down to 400-398 or trendline and hold for the rally to continue to the upside. So a pullback or consolidation around this level is healthy. Just remember its December, I always look forward to the Santa Rally if you've been in the market more than a year or two you know what that means.
2.) If SPY Pulls back and breaks this trendline and strong support, FEAR / FOMO / SQUIZZLE can happen and the bear market continues.
We don't know exactly whats gonna happen in the market but we just ride the wave and make mullah along the way 🙂
Have a blessed weekend ahead and trade smarter!
Sofi LongNASDAQ:SOFI
Hi Guys
Sofi, Growth company.
Punished for having a bear market in the last few days.
Found a Support level, a Nice green candle in a down market.
Away from all the MA, CCI starting to move
Overall nice Reversal.
Entry 4.6
TP 5.1~5.3
SL 4.3~4.2
Lol Long time since I didn't go a long
The bear market is NOT over..final drop needs to happenLet me make this clear.. buyers y’all need to relax.. we aren’t too bullish quite yet this is nothing but a short buy to me is nothing but short.
The short term rally cause from the Feds powell 75 BSP to 50 BSP.. it was great news but we are still in a bear market.. so this is NOT enough since still the Feds are going for another interest rates.
Overall bitcoin are still in a bear market and we aren’t bottom yet.. the retrace is complete, final drop needs to happen or last. According to crypto veterans and experts.. they expect the bitcoin bottom 12K area, other few said most 10K expect a few said 6500 area..
According for bitcoin to go monster full bullish we have to bottom of any of those 3 areas of which support are alot stronger. If you are still in a buy please becareful .. the bear market isn’t over. Remember stick with small amounts .. don’t go all in until the bottom is in.
BITCOIN SHORT POSITION FROM 16450$BTC looks good for a short position.
STOPS AROUND 16800$.
$15600 IS MY TARGET.
Is this rally a bear trap or a resuming bull? This is what we will be discussing today, and we are going to study both its technical and fundamental reasons and subsequently to derive why it is a bear trap? Or could it be a new bull in the making?
I hope this tutorial will be helpful, in enabling you to read into the market with greater clarity.
I have started a trading series, purpose for trading into longevity. Last week was on Buy Strategy, today on Sell Strategy. These strategies shared, they all can be applied to most markets and in different time frames.
Content:
a) The sell strategy – applicable to both:
· Long-term – Fundamental & Technical
· Short-term – Fundamental & Technical
b) Bull or Bear?
Some important dates:
14 Dec 21 - Fed: "Inflation no longer transitory"
10 Nov 22 – Oct CPI @ 7.7%, below expectation of 8.2%
Micro E-mini Dow Jones Futures
Minimum fluctuation
1 index point = $0.50
10 = $5
100 = $50
Of course if you need something more sizable, there is the E-mini Dow Jones Futures.
You can refer to the links below, you will find some of my past video tutorials, on how I time the different markets.
As time passes, you will see how nicely most markets trend along our analysis then.
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Buy Some New Shorts Pt. 2
Simple analysis here. The VIX is closing in on strong dynamic and static support.
Buy volatility, sell/short high-risk assets (1-6 month timeframe).
No change in my intermediate and long-term thesis. Still early innings of a bear market. Market conditions are steadily worsening.
Looking for a move in VIX to the static resistance level of 35.8 in the coming months.
Good luck! This is not financial advice.
Final bear market rally for 2022, SPX to 4300 by year end?Seeing some matching patterns here to put this together.
Up:
1) Going higher than 200 DMA will give bulls hope
2) 50% retrace from bottom lets people think we have finished this bear market
3) Now 80% odds for 50bps
4) Roughly 60 days would be in line + 20% return
5) Favoured seasonality for a Christmas rally
Then down:
6) Everyone forgot about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (now lowest since 1984!), energy issues in Europe (Russia will mess with gas again)
7) 50bps I think is unlikely so we will see 75bps. FOMC is Dec 13-14, so I will target there
8) We're still in a bear market and volume will top out for another downward move
9) Cramer + Tom Lee will call for 5100 at the top
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Related:
- Bear market investment strategies book: amzn.to
- 20%+ rally would be in line with the past:
www.fidelity.com
- Bear market rallies: www.forbes.com
- Strategic Petroleum reserves: www.eia.gov
- Energy in Europe: graphics.reuters.com
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Daily returns
Plan for 2020-2030