DXY H8 - Long SignalDXY H8
There isn't too much to report on here for the likes of the dollar index, we have seen a bullish start to the week so far which was as expected, but we are still very much in the same range which trades between 100.200 price and 101.000 price, we really need to see a break north of this 101 level.
A break of 101.000 price, and subsequent surge towards 101.800 to 102.000 price is the next goal. Good start to the week thus far. Lets see if we can start to see these setups we have been following unfold a little more in our favour!
Bearish Patterns
Megaphone - BearishSPY weekly looking interesting heading into the week. Staying hedged with the SPY holding another megaphone. The SPY is being carried by buyer volume with some hidden bearish divergence on the RSI and nearing overbought territory yet again.
With so many sectors and indexes flashing red and a massive bearish cipher on the weekly timeframe as further confirmation, looking forward to playing the downside.
Some FIB levels and RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime (Accompanying Charts Attached Below)
AUD/JPY BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
AUD/JPY pair is trading in a local uptrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is green. On the 1D timeframe the pair is going up too. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 93.198 area.
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NZD/JPY SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello, Friends!
We are going short on the NZD/JPY with the target of 85.850 level, because the pair is overbought and will soon hit the resistance line above. We deduced the overbought condition from the price being near to the upper BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is green and gives us a counter-signal.
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30/09/24 Weekly outlookFollowing a very important week in the macro economic landscape, a round of rate cuts that signals a pivot in how governments are tackling their economies, bitcoin saw a surge from the start of the week right through until the end of the traditional trading week on Friday. Up +6.3%.
Last week Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of US$1.11 billion, and Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of $84.51m. Bitcoin is clearly still favoured by the larger institutional investors, at least for now they are.
This week should be a semi-turbulent week given the forces at play, we've seen the larger economic environment flip to a more risk-on one with the event of a 50bps rate cut starting a period of QE, however, it is also the month end & quarter end. This is a time for "window dressing" the balance sheet and is negative to market liquidity. With banks making their balance sheet risk assessments at the very end of the quarter a shift from holding riskier assets to safer/high quality assets is made and therefor an assets like BTC will fall victim to this.
We are seeing the effects of that at time of writing, BTC has fallen -2.7% today and this window dressing is definitely a contributor to it, albeit a potentially temporary measure and on the 1st OCT that pressure should be relieved. Given the broader market environment, by the end of the week this loss should be recovered and some, IMO any dip is for buying in all of Q4, everything has set up nicely for a strong finish to the end of the year!
Nvidia still in a sequence channel Indeed, Nvidia is respecting the sequence of the bearish channel and bounced at point #5, moving downward.
Now, even though Nvidia is dropping, it remains quite strong. Could we see a rebound at the following levels?
113.50 to 115.25 (marked in the green zone)
If Nvidia bounces at these levels I mentioned, we will very likely see a channel breakout in the coming weeks.
But! If the price surpasses those two levels I mentioned, we could very likely see Nvidia testing the blue GAP zone for the third time or approaching point #6 (channel support).
Let’s see what happens this week.
Thank you for supporting my analysis.
SPY BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the SPY pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 538.14 level.
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Salesforce (CRM): Potential bearish flag formingOne of our members asked for an analysis on Salesforce ( NYSE:CRM ), and we've taken a closer look at it. Initially, it's a bit challenging to see the full picture, but if our Elliott Wave count is accurate, we marked the end of wave (2) at $115.29 after establishing wave B, which was exactly between the 127.2% and 138% Fibonacci levels.
It appears that wave 1 was put in with a new high slightly above wave B, taking out the resting liquidity (likely due to profit-taking and closing of long positions). Following this, there was a 33% drop, and here's where it gets tricky. Normally, we would expect this decline to continue, suggesting that the current rise is merely a relief pump. However, wave ((a)) perfectly touched the HVN POC, which indicates a slight chance that this could be the bottom. That said, we still believe that a continuation down to the 61.8-78.6% Fibonacci level is more likely.
Zooming in on the blue-circled area, we notice a textbook bear flag pattern developing. While we don't typically trade based on chart patterns, it is difficult to ignore this one given its clear structure. It becomes even more significant if there is a wick above the upper trend line of the flag, which could trigger another sell-off by taking out the liquidation levels. Such a wick would also fully close the gap and enter our targeted area where we anticipate a possible reversal.
To be clear, we are not trading this bear flag pattern or the targeted area just yet. Instead, we are using this setup as a means to validate whether our bearish outlook is correct or not. We’ll continue to monitor the development closely and provide updates as we gain more clarity.
SILVER BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
Previous week’s green candle means that for us the SILVER pair is in the uptrend. And the current movement leg was also up but the resistance line will be hit soon and upper BB band proximity will signal an overbought condition so we will go for a counter-trend short trade with the target being at 29.423.
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BITCOIN BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
BITCOIN pair is trading in a local uptrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is green. On the 1D timeframe the pair is going up too. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 58,730 area.
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GBP/CAD BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are going short on the GBP/CAD with the target of 1.770 level, because the pair is overbought and will soon hit the resistance line above. We deduced the overbought condition from the price being near to the upper BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is green and gives us a counter-signal.
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GBP/JPY BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
It makes sense for us to go short on GBP/JPY right now from the resistance line above with the target of 183.099 because of the confluence of the two strong factors which are the general downtrend on the previous 1W candle and the overbought situation on the lower TF determined by it’s proximity to the upper BB band.
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USDCAD Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDCAD for a selling opportunity around 1.35 zone, USDCAD was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 1.35 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EUR/CHF BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
EUR-CHF uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 0.939 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the EUR/CHF pair.
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EUR/JPY BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello, Friends!
EUR/JPY pair is trading in a local uptrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is green. On the 1H timeframe the pair is going up too. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 160.449 area.
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EURGBP Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURGBP for a selling opportunity around 0.84000 zone, EURGBP is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.84000 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Potential Harmonic Bearish Butterfly Could Push QQQ to $525+Here I have Invesco Trust NASDAQ:QQQ on the Daily Chart!
Invesco Trust NASDAQ:QQQ follows the NASDAQ 100 Index which is Tech-Industry Heavy.
Price currently is struggling at ( $485 - $486 ), the 78.6% Fibonacci Level responsible for giving us our B point in what appears to be a potential Bearish Harmonic Butterfly Pattern!
Harmonic Butterfly
X - B = .786
A - C = .382 - .886
B - D = 1.618 - 2.24
X - D = 1.272 - 1.618
If Price is able to break through this Level, then by the Harmonic Butterfly Parameters, we could see the CD Leg extend to the 1.272 - 1.618 Fibonacci Levels @ ( $525.30 - $553! )
Fundamentals:
* Feds have already began their Easing Cycle with the more then expected aggressive 50 bps cut to Interest Rates. With more cuts already planned in the foreseeable future, this will begin to help the economy bounce back!
*Thursday, Sept. 26th: Final GDP, Unemployment Claims & Powell Speaking
Friday, Sept. 27th: Core PCE Index
Indicators:
- Price is trading Above the 200 EMA
- RSI Above 50
- Bullish Volume Building
GOLD BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are going short on the GOLD with the target of 2,612.943 level, because the pair is overbought and will soon hit the resistance line above. We deduced the overbought condition from the price being near to the upper BB band.However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is green and gives us a counter-signal.
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SELL GOLDIn todays session we are looking for selling opportunity in Gold. Gold has been a raging beast lately. Todays Asia session has a surprise liquidity sweep, we are anticipating a pullback from this high 2628.27 with stops above 2638.724. Target the 2592 levels. Always use proper risk management and don't risk what you can't afford to loose. Cheers and best of luck, gwg.