Get started

AUS200

TROUBLE: In a land down under!The Aussies are in trouble but they may not know it as yet. Caution : this is not a prediction that the AUS200 is about to crash, or will crash. All observations and comment are based on this snapshot in time. Next week this analysis may be irrelevant if the picture changes dramatically. Features on the chart: 1 - A clear sign of rebellion after panic selling. 2 - The rebellion is actually weak, in technical terms. 3 - The retracement up into 61.8 fib was unsurprising. 4 - Price struggled in the first (lower) zone of congestion. 5- Price was rejected twice from the second (higher) zone of congestion. 6. Price remains under the Daily ATR (amber line) - which represents a big change in sentiment at a macro-economic level. I don't trade daily time frames, as they take too long to deliver and they are too risky for me. I would go long and short in a daily time frame bull or bear market on much lower time frames e.g. 3 to 15 min (which in trend following cant take days to complete). Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
A
by Captain_Walker
2
AUS200 (1H): Potential move northThis is a theory of curves setup (TOCS) ; looking at the price action of the AUS200. In TOCS, thee is usually a 55% chance of movement in the leading half of the curve (based on personal experience). Better than 50% is good in finding entry points for trend following positions. Zoom into the chart if text overlaps candles. The AUS200 has been curving up nicely. Of course charts don't obey these curves - that's why there is a remaining 45% chance of the setup failing. There is no target for an exit point in trend following. So, entry is the big issue. Exit points are determined by the market when price moves threw a trailing stop on a lower time frame. There is no prescription as to how to work that out because it depends on the price action in a lower timeframe. It is no possible to know that until if happens. What's in favour of a north side attempt? Always look higher e.g. the daily time frame where the RSI is in a deep trough and which will appear attractive to 'punters'. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
A
by Captain_Walker
MONEY: IN SMALL TRENDSIn my own methodology I've shown in other charts that, it doesn't matter which time frame you make your money. I even showed a 3 min trend on one occasion. All this true is trend-following - which is different to following a moving average of some sort. The ATR line reacts differently to price fluctuations. The important thing is to minimise losses. This chart is a 15 min time frame. It's of little value now because the start of the trend is where you want to be. But for the future I'm showing where the entry point is. Similar strategies can be used on other time frames. 1. See the trend breaking down and fighting to stay afloat. 2. See the double top on the 15 min time frame. 3. See price collapse. 4. See the rebound to 0.5% fib. Experience is required with all this. In this scenario the stop-loss could have been just above 0.618. That was an unlikely rebound in this particular scenario because price was struggling already. (In other scenarios where price isn't struggling as much I've seen retracements to 0.76 and above). Please note carefully: true trend following is a higher risk strategy but also an exceptionally higher reward strategy. It loses far more often than other strategies. But numbers of losses mean little. Why? It's the aggregate of the minority of big gains well outweighing minimised greater numbers of small losses. It certainly isn't for 'everybody'. In he captioned scenario, nobody knows how far that 15 min trend will go. NOBODY! For trend-followers in this scenario, the exit would be the amber line. In other words, the market shows the entry point and the exit point. That's very scary. See same strategy on the lowly 3 min time frame below Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
A
by Captain_Walker
AUS200: NO SLEEP - POPCORN AND PIZZA TONIGHT!No sleep for me tonight - and I'll be feeding on popcorn and beer! 🤣😂 Maybe a pizza or two. 🍕🍕 The set up here looks like a good short coming up. (Note the brutal disclaimers). 1. There is big trouble with Chinatown all over the world. Something about China banning shares on some American exchange - or something like that. The Dragon Index took a nose dive, and that reverberated into the Tech100. (See snapshot below - and check the news). 2. The Aussies are usually delayed in reacting. I don't know why. Maybe they're asleep due to some time zone effect when the action has happened. The current reaction is slow, on one 4H candle but the price action is better seen on 5 to 15 min time frames. 3. What happens with the Aussies - and I've seen it too many times - is that they wake up and go "OMG!" Then they panic buy or sell. 4. Normally the big action starts around 00:30 to 01:00 UK local time. As the Aussies open their exchange fully, there is usually some serious price action on 5 to 15 min time frames. Usually if sudden movement happens in that half-hour that sets the stage for what'll happen next in terms of direction - but expect big whipsaws between 00:30 and 02:00 AM. Whipsaws are nice if you know what you're doing. If you don't stay out! 5. The Aussie track both Tech and DJI for sense of direction. Well, as USTech has been clobbered, I expect the Aussies to run scared. Hello - I could always be wrong. This is shared experience - not advice! The smartest people so far are the Germans. The DAX took a pump south already. Now they're consolidating and thinking what to do next. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
A
by Captain_Walker
2
Expected Breakout Higher in AUS200Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in AUS200. Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 1-Hour chart. AUS200 has been in a rangebound move and is expected to breakout in the short to medium term. Based on the market profile, the range is between 7255 and 7325. Technical Indicators AUS200 recently crossed above its short (25-SMA), medium (75-SMA) and fractal moving averages and it is currently at the middle of the range. The RSI is above 50 and is heading higher. Moreover, the KST confirmed bullish move with a positive crossover. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market. At the time of publishing AUS200 is trading around 7293. The medium-term target price is observed around the 7400 price level. A stop loss is set at 7200.
OANDA:AU200AUDLong
by Ceddy86
1
Is this a breakdown or a meltup?The choice is yours - you can see it any way you like. The technical features here are: 1. Reducing peaks of squeeze momentum. 2. Recent RSI is below 50. 3. Rejection of 4H ATR line. 4. Large area of consolidation. Caution: none of the above means that price has to crash. Just to be clear - price could well go to the moon. The technical situation in my assessment (at this time) means greater probability for the south. Probability estimates do not predict how far a movement may go. This is a set up for a trend-following scenario i.e. high risk to high gain. High risk means high probability of big losses, if you don't know what you're doing if you short this. Following a trend south means finding a suitable trend that is below the 4H time frame. There is no magic formula to work that out. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
A
by Captain_Walker
AUSSIES: Advance noticeIt's not quite a head and shoulders just yet. This is about watching for potential situations and preparing for them. As I showed in other charts, sometimes we can get a a second right shoulder in ultra-bullish markets but there is no law on what can happen in these markets. Readiness is (almost) everything. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
A
by Captain_Walker
1
Aussies in the crosshairsA potential kill zone is shown. DO NOT enter if you cannot lose money! It's this simple: price below amber 4h ATR. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions and not intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
A
by Captain_Walker
AUS200: Possible triple topThis one to watch. For new traders its a nice one to try out on a Tradingview paper trading account. The possible triple top is into a zone of congestion. Price may go up or it may go down - only two directions here. All you can do is take a controlled affordable loss (aka stoploss). This is positional play for finding a trend south on a lower time frame. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions and not intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FX:AUS200
by Captain_Walker
The Aussies: Is this another one-candle situation?Well, it is one candle at the leading edge. We cannot know if it means anything until stuff happens. Those who look for predictions that foretell the future are in the wrong game. In trend-following methodologies, one would ride an escalator down or up - on a smaller time frame that that shown here (to conserve losses). When you zoom out of this chart, you see a market struggling to stay afloat. That's usually not a good sign. The 4H ATR line is above the recent batch of ranging candles. This means there is bearish pressure in this market (on this time frame only). The bulls have lots of work to do if they wanna get above the 4H (amber) line. The trouble for the Aussies is that they are bounced around by a) the DJI b) the USTech100 and c) US Bond markets. That's why it looks so indecisive (at this time). They are normally most scared of the USTech indices. So watch USTech as well for a steer on probabilities on lower time frames.
FX:AUS200
by Captain_Walker