Trading Opportunities in AUD/USD This WeekOn Monday, the US dollar increased to nearly a two-week high against a range of currencies as the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points later this week. The dollar also gained on Friday due to elevated core inflation in March.
This week, investors will be focused on whether the Federal Reserve plans to halt interest rate increases after May or if another increase is possible later this year. Job data is also in play, with the JOLTS Job report expected to show a 200,000 drop in open jobs to 9.7 million, and the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday likely to show that 180,000 jobs were added in April.
Traders might consider the AUD/USD trade this week as the Reserve Bank of Australia is anticipated to announce its latest interest rate decision today. While falling inflation figures in the March quarter might provide room for the RBA to pause on further rate hikes, the RBA remains cautious of high inflation and concerns about wage and population growth.
Most economists and financial markets are predicting that the official cash rate will remain at 3.6%, but the decision could be a close call. The Commonwealth Bank forecasts a 25-basis-point increase, while NAB, Westpac, and ANZ all predict a hold. The Commonwealth Bank’s forecast coming true is what traders might like to look for in regard to trading opportunities.
Minutes from the RBA's April board meeting indicate that the influx of 700,000 new arrivals could put considerable pressure on Australia's existing capital stock, particularly housing, resulting in higher consumer prices. While higher immigration could ease wage pressures in industries experiencing significant labour shortages.
