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Audusdshort

AUDUSD gains to be limited.AUDUSD - 24h expiry We are trading at oversold extremes. A higher correction is expected. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 0.6525 level. We look to Sell at 0.6525 (stop at 0.6560) Our profit targets will be 0.6445 and 0.6425 Resistance: 0.6460 / 0.6550 / 0.6625 Support: 0.6340 / 0.6275 / 0.6185 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
📌 Potential LONG-TERM SELL setup for: AUD/USD👩🏽‍💻 Technical overview: AUD/USD has had difficulty surpassing several Moving Averages on higher timeframes. The daily support level was recently breached. Furthermore, the last daily candlestick showed a long upper wick, often indicating intense selling pressure. The 0.65 level is significant as this level might allow for a double bottom pattern to form on the 4-hour chart. 🎯 Potential Entry Strategies: • Scenario A Bullish Outcome: If the price doesn't drop below the 0.65 level, it could complete the formation of the second bottom of the double bottom pattern. This could then lead to a bullish reversal. • Scenario B Bearish Outcome: If the 0.65 level is broken, we could expect further downward movement in price.
Short
by fxtraderkristina
AUDUSD remains negative.AUDUSD - Intraday Our short-term bias remains negative. Intraday rallies continue to attract sellers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end. The bearish engulfing candle on the 4-hour chart is negative for sentiment. Price action has posted a Doji candle and is neutral for the short-term sentiment. We look for a temporary move higher. 50 4-hour EMA is at 0.6574. We look to Sell at 0.6575 (stop at 0.6605) Our profit targets will be 0.6505 and 0.6485 Resistance: 0.6540 / 0.6560 / 0.6585 Support: 0.6527 / 0.6500 / 0.6480 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
Aussie Dollar: Headwinds AheadAUD is a commodity currency. Australia’s resources rich economy is heavily influenced by commodity trade, particularly with China. When China sneezes, the AUD catches cold. With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s rate hiking cycle approaching an end plus China’s economic recovery remaining anaemic, the AUD is likely to weaken further in the short term. This paper posits a short position in CME Micro AUD/USD futures to gain from a weakening Australian Dollar with an entry at 0.6584 combined with a target exit at 0.6300 hedged by a stop loss of 0.6747 delivering a reward to risk ratio of 1.75x. RBA HAS PAUSED ITS INFLATION FIGHT Fending off a stubborn inflationary environment, the RBA was quick to follow the Fed’s path in raising its lending rates to cool the economy. While not as aggressive as the Fed, the RBA held its rates at elevated levels. Inflation in Australia has eased from its peak but hovers above those in the US. The RBA expects inflation to abate gradually to target levels of 2% by mid-2025. With inflation trending lower and GDP softening, the RBA rate hiking cycle is likely at its apex. The RBA did not hike rates at its last two meetings. Much like other central banks, the RBA will be guided by macroeconomic data in shaping the path ahead for interest rates. Thus far, economic data supports the case for no further rate hikes. Consumer spending and GDP growth has slowed over the last two quarters. Barring an unexpected reversal, the rates are at their peak. Sharp retail slowdown in June also vindicates RBA’s case for pause. Still, the odds of further rate hikes are non-zero. The RBA has maintained a hawkish tone stating that further tightening may be warranted. Previously, even though RBA had opted for a pause in April, scorching inflation numbers forced the central bank to hike rates in May & June. RBA’s next policy meeting is on September 5th and until then, the current bearish sentiment is likely to prevail. If RBA opts to continue with the rate pause, AUD is likely to weaken further. US DEBT DOWNGRADES AND THE DOLLAR SMILE Fitch, a leading ratings agency, recently downgraded US treasury debt. The downgrade has led to limited impact on treasury yields or the USD. Instead, the downgrade led to reduced appetite for risk assets and increased flow into the safety of the US Dollar. This is the classic dollar smile phenomenon at play. The dollar smile helps explain the tendency of USD to shine when the US economy is not only strongly outperforming, but also when it faces turbulence. This bodes negatively for the AUD which is a volatile currency as it takes cues from global commodities. Reduction in risk appetite leads to further weakening in the AUD. UNDERWHELMING CHINESE ECONOMIC RECOVERY China is Australia’s largest trading partner. Australia is a resource rich nation. Substantial portion of its resources are exported to China. Iron Ore, Copper, and Natural Gas top the list. Consequently, a slowdown in China adversely impacts the Australian Dollar. China’s post-COVID recovery has been underwhelming. Growth is weaker than expected and domestic consumption remains fragile. Though there are signals that these may rebound, the process will be slow which suggests there will be limited demand from China for Australian commodities in the near term. Inadequate Stimulus China has not been able to rely on external demand for its goods to support its recovery. This has put further pressure on stimulating domestic demand. Last week, Chinese officials announced stimulus measures which have fallen short of expectations. Officials have indicated further stimulus, but details remain scant and timeline vague. Given that, Chinese economic recovery is likely to be drawn out. Feeble Manufacturing Activity Manufacturing forms the backbone of the Chinese economy. Activity in the sector had been shrinking since February. However, the latest PMI data points to a slow reversal in this trend. Inventory levels improved suggesting that de-stocking is ending. However, PMI at 49.3 still points to shrinking manufacturing activity which may take several months to recover as global demand remains pale. OPTIONS MARKET SIGNALS SIGNIFICANT NEAR-TERM BEARISHNESS Aggregate Put/Call ratio of CME Options on AUD futures stands at 1.74 indicating a clear bearish sentiment heavily weighted towards the front of the curve. Analysing ratio across expiries, sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish in the near term with signs of bullishness in Q4. Meanwhile, CFTC’s Commitment of Trader’s report shows that asset managers are positioned net short on the AUD and increased net short positioning by ~9000 contracts (~21%) last week. Conversely, leveraged funds have switched their net short positioning to net long last week. Overall, COT points to a bearish sentiment. TRADE SETUP With Australian interest rates at their peak and Chinese economic recovery expected to be drawn out, investors can gain from the near-term weakening in the AUD using a short position in CME’s Micro AUD/USD futures expiring in September. CME Micro AUD/USD Futures have a margin requirement of just USD 170 (as of August 7th) and provides exposure to 10,000 AUD. Every pip delivers a P&L of USD 1. • Entry: 0.6584 • Target: 0.6300 • Stop Loss: 0.6747 • Profit at Target: USD 284 (284 pips * USD 1 = USD 284) • Loss at Stop: USD 163 (163 pips * USD 1 = USD 163) • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.75x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:M6A1!Short
by mintdotfinance
1
A Short Trader May get happy today, on this AUD pair! {07/08/23}Educational Analysis says AUDUSD may go Short according to my technical. This is not an entry signal. I have no concerns with your profit and loss from this analysis. Why long? Because AUDUSD respects an uptrend line facing down line on a 4-hour time frame. The market is bearish but a strong AUD may change its direction and start a new trend soon. The black line is the Order block The RED line is high and low at the current price. I HAVE NO CONCERNS WITH YOUR PROFIT OR LOSS, Happy trading, FX Dollars.
by VishalBudhrani
AUDUSD,Bearish trend,Head and ShoulderGood afternoon, I hope everyone had a succesful trading week and week in their daily lives. Here is a pre market forecast for AUDUSD this upcoming trading week. Last week, AUDUSD was bearish for the most of last week. Toward the end of the week it began a retracement process. Price broke the daily supply/demand area @0.65944. Price is projected to continue bearish momentum to the next 4hr supply/demand area @0.65464. If price rejects this area, look for the head and shoulder formation to form to confirm this projection. If there are any questions, comments, concerns, or you may have a similar analysis to mine please do not hesitate to share, comment, and boost this post.
Short
by NoPumpFakesFx
AUDUSD Sell IdeaHere is why I am intent in selling AUDUSD at the week's open: Weekly: -we have three consecutive weekly candles that make it clear that momentum is in favor of the bears and they are currently dominating the market -we closed the week as a doji, but one with clear momentum illustrated by the weekly candle to the downside -it is this momentum that I am counting on to be displayed as we start off the week and carried into the first one or two days (Monday/Tuesday) -we are, however, tapping into a previous zone of bullish orders that resulted in the market pushing North to 0.69000 institutional level -as such, I am keeping my expectation minimal as to a major bearish continuation on the H1 swing to the downside and fairly expecting price to push North after the first test of current lows H4: -we have been on a retracement journey for the better part of last week or toward the weekly close -I expect to sell the pair once we, at least, hit the golden zone for a target near 0% extension -I do not expect a strong continuation, considering that we are at the weekly demand zone- hence shall not target the usual -27% extension of the recent swing on H4/H1 (they currently share parameters) -the Friday low at 0.65378 provides a potential spot for gathering liquidity, and so does the weekly low at 0.65145 -I , however, expect us to protect the weekly low if a bull market is to ensue -as such, I am keeping my target conservative at 0.65500 Midrange/H1 -currently, this time frame shares parameters with the H4 swing -as such, I expect to sell around 0.66400 and target 0.65500 as illustrated on the M15 chart
Short
by lovinmulika
AUDUSD - SELL - Inflation and Interest rate forecastThere seems to be a movement in the opposite direction from the original bearish movement. My prediction is the Buyers are making a prediction forecast in the event of lower inflation for AUSSIE and a no-interest rate hike for USD. However, according to my pattern analysis, the price has not completed its full reversal on price yet. Therefore, there is still a potential for a downside bearish movement. Please note that the information presented on TradingView is sourced from a third-party provider. It is important to remember that you are solely responsible for making trading decisions for your account. Trading involves a very high level of risk. Any information or content provided is strictly for research, educational, and informational purposes and should not be considered as investment advice, consultation advice, or an investment strategy. The information provided is not customized to meet the investment requirements of any specific individual, and it does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any recipient who may access it. This is not financial advice and we are not responsible for your losses that may occur following our analysis!!! If you find this analysis of AUD/USD helpful, please give me a boost, or like to show your support. My first public Idea post
Short
by sultancoker
AUDUSD - SHORT SETUP - SELL The Stochastic Oscillator %K value is 84.92% and the %D value is 91.64%. Both values are above 80, indicating an overbought condition. This suggests that the price has reached a relatively high level and a pullback or reversal may be likely. The price is likely to retrace back to around .66300. From the Daily time frame, it is evident that the price is nearing a significant supply area. This suggests the possibility of a downward correction. We should observe whether the market will present us with a suitable trading setup. Please note that the information presented on TradingView is sourced from a third-party provider. It is important to remember that you are solely responsible for making trading decisions for your account. Trading involves a very high level of risk. Any information or content provided is strictly for research, educational, and informational purposes and should not be considered as investment advice, consultation advice, or an investment strategy. The information provided is not customized to meet the investment requirements of any specific individual, and it does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any recipient who may access it. This is not financial advice and we are not responsible for your losses that may occur following our analysis!!! If you find this analysis of AUD/USD helpful, please give me a boost, or like to show your support. My first public Idea post
Short
by sultancoker
4
AUDUSD Correction inside Trend ChannelAfter my last AUDUSD idea was a success, I now think of a correction in the downtrend channel. Still, AUDUSD would need to break above the vital hurdle at the June and July highs of around 0.6900 to confirm that the trend had reversed to up from down. Until then, the path of least resistance remains sideways, within the recently well-established range of 0.6500-0.6900 Data due on Wednesday is expected to show that Australia CPI eased to 1.0% on-quarter in the April-June quarter from 1.4% in the January-March quarter, and 6.2% on-year in Q2-2023 from 7.0% in the previous quarter. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to have eased to 5.4% on-year in June from 5.6% in May. Therefore, the bearish trend will remain suggested until now. My target is 0.67580
Short
by Alert_Me
5