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AUDCHF

AUD breakout traders – look to the yuan for inspirationAs is typically the way in FX trading the breakout traders see a set-up on the higher timeframes and either the market uses these levels to fade the move, or the breakout fails to gain traction and ultimately reverses. Those seasoned traders who use breakouts for trade entry – often momentum and trend-followers – know the percentage of breakouts that lead to trending conditions is typically low. It is why they target ‘outlier’ moves within a distribution and subscribe to the view that the win/loss ratio is not a major concern. The strategy will typically run win rates of 30-40% but will focus more on the reward-to-risk trade-off. Extracting as much profit from each trade is where they make their money and that is where the science of holding positions kicks in. We may end up with many small losing positions, but when we win it is ideally a 5 to 10R. Holding, as I say, is key and that is never easy – it is why having a rules-based strategy can pay dividends. When the market breaks out and goes on a run you must know when to hold and when to fold. Granted, FX markets have a higher propensity to revert to a mean than commodities or equity indices, but the AUD screams out as currently fitting this dynamic. Notably, EURAUD, AUDUSD, AUDCHF and GBPAUD screened on the breakout radar yesterday, but have since failed to follow through with the move. China is at the heart of the AUD recent moves. USDCNH has always been a strong guide for me on AUD flows, and while I have been of the view that weaker external demand needs a weaker currency – the PBoC is doing the utmost to push back on the yuan weakness, with consistently stronger yuan ‘fixings’ (seen each day at 11:15 AEST). As a driver, we’ve seen a slightly better China CPI print today at -0.3% and USDCNH has sold off, in turn, this has lifted the AUD. The statistical correlation between AUD and CNH has broken down of late, but for those trading AUDUSD or the AUD crosses through Asia, the influence of the yuan is still incredibly significant. Tactically, if we are to see an upside break of 7.2500 (in USDCNH) I’d have far higher conviction we’ll see a closing breakout in these AUD pairs. Patience is always our best friend in trading, especially when using leverage, as we need to nail our entries – so having the set-ups on the radar and waiting for the market flow to push a trade is prudent. One could say we’re at peak negative sentiment towards China, and next week’s China economic data (industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment) is likely to see a more pronounced positive reaction to a beat than a negative one to a miss. That is a risk to manage, but if the AUD kicks lower in these pairs it could be meaningful and certainly be welcomed by those that like to trade continuations.
Short
by Pepperstone
echnical Analysis for AUDCHF - 1 Hour Chart📈 #ForexTrading #AUDCHF #SidewaysMarket #SupportAndResistance 📊 Technical Analysis for AUDCHF - 1 Hour Chart 📊 🔍 Overview: The AUDCHF currency pair is currently exhibiting a sideways movement on the 1-hour chart, with no clear bearish or bullish trend. As a technical analyst, I have devised two potential trade plans to capitalize on this situation by using buy stop and sell stop orders at key support and resistance levels. 📉 Trade Plan 1 - Sell Stop: 🎯 Entry (S2): 0.57991 🛡️ Stop Loss (S1): 0.58121 🎯 Take Profit (1:1): 0.57860 📈 Trade Plan 2 - Buy Stop: 🎯 Entry (R2): 0.58755 🛡️ Stop Loss (R1): 0.58612 🎯 Take Profit (1:1): 0.58900 💡 Rationale: In a sideways market, price tends to oscillate between support and resistance levels. By placing sell stop and buy stop orders, we aim to catch potential breakouts in either direction. Trade Plan 1 anticipates a downside breakout from support (S2), while Trade Plan 2 expects an upside breakout from resistance (R2). ⚠️ Risk Management: Remember to implement proper risk management techniques. Only risk a small percentage of your trading capital on each trade, and use stop losses to protect against adverse market movements. 📊 Technical Indicators: Utilize additional technical indicators such as moving averages, RSI, or MACD to gain further insights into price movements before executing the trades. 🚀 Investment Advice: Trading in the forex market involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It is essential to stay informed about market developments and have a well-defined trading strategy. If you're new to trading, consider starting with a demo account to practice your approach before committing real funds. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always do your research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Happy Trading! 📈💹 #ForexAnalysis #TradeIdeas #FinancialMarkets #InvestmentTips #RiskManagement
by T-Q
Choppy Price Action Sparks Speculation of Upcoming Market ShiftWe are currently witnessing a gradual descent from the Monthly spike that occurred in February 2020. On the lower time frames, the price action has become quite choppy, with each new low promptly followed by a quick retracement upward. This choppy behavior suggests the possibility of a long-term reversal in the making. I have identified two key targets that the price might aim for before experiencing a potential upward movement. The first target is a weekly support/low level at 0.562, while the second target is the 2020 spike low at 0.532. Personally, I believe that 0.562 might serve as a more reasonable target. Therefore, I am planning to gradually build a position as the price approaches this level. Nevertheless, it's essential to be prepared for the possibility that the price might not reach that far down. Consequently, I will start monitoring daily signals on my TRFX indicator as the price falls below 0.575. My trading strategy for this trade will be to focus on the SUPPLY/SELL zone, clearly marked in red on the chart, starting around 0.61. I anticipate that the price will be drawn towards this level. As for the stop loss placement, it will depend on the precise signal I receive, but it will definitely be set below 0.56. This approach is aimed at managing potential risks effectively.
Long
by TheFxAce
15
Audchf keeps getting lowerLikely pullback to short,watching on lower timeframe like h1. **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Aud Chf LongA reversal analysis for the AUD/CHF currency pair from the 57518 level involves examining the historical price action, identifying potential reversal points, and analyzing relevant technical indicators to assess the probability of a reversal occurring. Please note that as an AI language model, I don't have access to real-time data, so the analysis provided here is based on hypothetical scenarios and the knowledge available up to September 2021. Historical Context: First, let's take a look at the historical price movement of the AUD/CHF pair leading up to the 57518 level. We need to consider both long-term and short-term trends to get a comprehensive understanding. Key Support and Resistance Levels: Identify significant support and resistance levels on the chart. These levels can act as crucial reference points and can provide insight into potential reversal areas. Candlestick Patterns: Analyze the candlestick patterns at the 57518 level. Look for key reversal patterns like doji, hammer, shooting star, or engulfing patterns. These patterns can signal potential reversals. Momentum Indicators: Review momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Divergence between price and the indicator can indicate a potential reversal. Volume Analysis: Examine trading volumes around the 57518 level. Significant volume spikes or divergences can provide clues about possible changes in market sentiment. Fibonacci Retracement: Apply Fibonacci retracement levels from recent swing highs to lows to identify potential support or resistance levels that coincide with the 57518 level. News and Events: Consider any upcoming economic data releases or geopolitical events that might impact the AUD/CHF pair. Sudden news can trigger sharp reversals. Sentiment Analysis: Evaluate market sentiment through sources like CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report or sentiment indicators. Extreme sentiment can indicate a potential reversal. Timeframe Analysis: Assess the reversal analysis across different timeframes (daily, weekly, monthly) to get a more comprehensive view. Remember that a reversal analysis is not a guarantee of future market movement. It is crucial to use risk management techniques, set stop-loss orders, and combine multiple analyses before making any trading decisions. Additionally, consulting with a qualified financial advisor or professional trader is recommended for personalized guidance based on current market conditions.
Long
by realtrademaster
AUD/CHF Set To Fall! SELL! My dear subscribers , Please, find my technical outlook for AUD/CHF below: The market is trading on 0.58496 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 0.58334 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
AUDCHF: Buy opportunity emergingAUDCHF is trading inside a Channel Down pattern for more than one year with the 1D timeframe bearish (RSI = 38.270, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 43.501) as the price is under its middle and the 1D MA50. The 1D MA200 is located exactly on its top. The 1D MACD is in the process of completing a Bullish Cross, which has been a strong buy signal inside this pattern. Even though the price can extend to 0.57000 to complete a -7.55% decline from the recent Lower High (similar declines have been -8.06%, -7.94% and -7.55% since the start of the pattern so we use the minimum scenario), once the Bullish Cross is formed, we will buy and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 0.59000). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
1
7 Dimension analysis for AUDCHF 😇 7 Dimension Analysis Analysis Time Frame: Daily 1: Price Structure: The current price structure is bearish, characterized by a Breakout from Sideways (BoS) behavior. The move is impulsive and nearing completion, with a major weekly demand area acting as support. The inducement is not yet confirmed, and there have been 3 pullbacks during the last corrective leg. Notably, there are no unmitigated order blocks during the entire impulsive leg, indicating no significant resistance until the Choch level. Confluence is observed on the daily, weekly, and monthly time frames, with a demand zone present in the same area. 2: Pattern 🟢 TREND LINES: Trend lines are acting as resistance levels, and a closing above them will provide final confirmation. 🟢 CHART PATTERNS: A potential Head and Shoulders pattern is forming, but a massive volume and engulfing bar at the last leg's low point add complexity. Additionally, there is a weekly liquidity sweep and a Fakeout Within 1 Bar pattern. These patterns suggest that the price may move sideways from here to form a proper demand base. 🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS: A Change in Guard pattern appeared at the bottom, indicating a potential reversal. Momentum (Engulfing) occurred with massive volume, adding to the potential bearish reversal signal. Momentum Fakeout Reversal also occurred with significant volume. A Narrow Range is forming with 3 candle squeezes yet to be confirmed. The last corrective and current impulsive candles are inside the reversal candle. Today's session opened low but experienced bullish control throughout the day. 3: Volume: Volume on the Fakeout is good, indicating significant market interest. Volume on the demand is heavy at the initial point, showing strong buying activity. 4: Momentum RSI: 🟢 Zone: The RSI is currently in a sideways zone. 🟢 Range Shift: Initially sideways to bullish. 🟢 Divergence: Hidden divergence with low momentum observed. Momentum has been holding in the bullish zone for a prolonged period. 5: Volatility Bollinger Bands: 🟢 Middle Band: A resistance breakout will be crucial for the initial upside move. 🟢 Squeez: Just started, suggesting potential low volatility ahead. 🟢 Headfake: Only one candle so far, not yet confirmed. 6: Strength ADX: The trend is currently bearish. But initial reversal can start from this zone 7: Sentiment ROC: The rate of change indicates that AUD is gaining strength. ✔️ Entry Time Frame: H1 ✅ Entry TF Structure: Bullish ☑️ Current Move: Impulse Move with one Choch. ✔ Support Resistance Base: Weekly support area and Fakeout. ☑️ Candles Behavior: Engulfing pattern making a valid low ☑️ FIB Trigger Event: Activated. ☑️ Trend Line Breakout: Confirmed. ☑️ Final Comments: Consider buying as an initial test entry. 💡 Decision: Buy 🚀 Entry: 0.5850 ✋ Stop Loss: 0.5795 🎯 Take Profit: 0.6090 😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:3 🕛 Expected Duration: 5 Days Summary: The analysis suggests a bearish price structure with an impulsive move nearing completion. Various chart patterns and candlestick formations add complexity to the overall scenario. The RSI indicates a sideways zone, and the ADX confirms the bearish trend. A potential bullish entry is identified based on the current move, support resistance, and FIB trigger event. The risk-to-reward ratio is calculated at 1:3, and the expected duration for the trade is 5 days.
Long
by Optimum369