XAUUSD 26/8/24After calling another all-time high on gold last week, we were expecting more upside from this pair. Now, the one thing that shifts us toward a sell-side bias is the fact that we broke the last significant structural low that led to the new high. This indicates that a pullback is in progress, but with liquidity building above the significant high, the probability of further upside remains the most likely scenario. With this in mind, the level below the current price, where we reacted last week, is where we expect the price to come down and interact again. We also have a demand area below. If the price drops into this area, I will look for longs back toward the highs, potentially creating another new all-time high for gold. However, if we break below the trajectory level we’ve identified and pass the demand area we've marked, we’ll anticipate a deeper pullback, similar to what we projected on EUR/USD.
Using the same principles here, we have two points of interaction for potential upside moves, but for sell-side moves, we don’t yet have any areas to reference. If the price drops lower, new areas will be left behind, and we can begin to consider them. Until then, we are focusing solely on the upside areas. This aligns with our overall bias, supported by the daily timeframe, which is showing very strong moves to the upside. We do not expect this to change abruptly.
Trade safely, follow your plan, and stick to your risk management.
ATH
26/08/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,969.66
Last weeks low: $57,798.14
Midpoint: $61,383.90
Another week has passed in the crypto world and another week of Bitcoin recovery. Now hovering around $64,000 zone after a battle around the range Midpoint which was also the 4H 200EMA, BTC has flipped bullish on all major MA's and is looking to target the '21 ATH which has historically been the area where BTC has struggled in the last few months.
With the US presidential election nearing and the FED rate cuts approaching even sooner, there are a lot of significant FA factors to consider. I think most people were under the impression that the ETF's and the halving would have more of an instant impact on price, we have seen a rally for the BTC ETF but that classic post halving boost has not yet panned out. It does have the feeling of all stars are aligning in the coming months to push through that ~$70k resistance and enter price discovery. Current sentiment is mostly pure boredom and that has lead to impulse moves in the past.
For now I think the important places to look are in the altcoin space, having been decimated in the last few months now is a good time to seek out strong fundamental projects that are looking to lead the way for the next year or so. The altcoin season index is currently @ 22/100 indicating that the market is heavily Bitcoin dominated, suggesting that altcoins need to play catch-up and will outperform BTC by doing so.
19/08/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $61,782.68
Last weeks low: $56,107.68
Midpoint: 58,945.18
Apologies for the late WEEKLY OUTLOOK, let's go over last weeks PA.
A much tighter spread between weekly high and low last week compared to the week before. As BTC continues its recovery from the JPY carry trade dump we are back @ 4H 200EMA for the 5th time since losing support during the dump. For me this follows the same pattern as has been happening all year, flip the 4H 200EMA and aim for the '21 ATH @ $69,000. What happens at that level is nearly always disappointing but with rate cuts coming next month, maybe that will finally change.
From the weekly range chart I do see the midpoint being important for the rest of the week, the recent 1h surge has come from the Midpoint level, flipped the 0.75 and now targeting range high which would put BTC over the 4H 200EMA point. The FOMC minutes takes place on Wednesday of this week and may provide some volatility, however the general consensus is that a rate hike is coming next month, the real question is will it be 25 Basis Points or 50bps.
For this week it's more of the same in terms of being patient and trying not to get caught up in the chop. With the general sentiment being that the Bullrun will continue soon it's tricky to find the right entry at this stage if you haven't already. Patience is key.
ETH/USDT 1D Trade idea It's no secret, Ethereum has been struggling this Bullrun.
Outperformed by Solana and other new emerging L1's, a permabearish ETH/BTC chart and losing market share in terms of volume on chain to its competitors.
The daily chart is a difficult one to digest as a fan of ETH, despite the ETF approval and the institutional investment that has come with it, the trend is an obvious downtrend of late and shows no signs of changing anytime soon...
The ETH/BTC pair is a similar story only the downtrend has been the case for much longer, unable to keep up with bitcoins price gains. Bitcoin is currently -20% from its ATH set earlier this year, Ethereum is yet to break its previous ATH set in '21 of $4850, -47% at current price which is way off BTC.
For me there are two possible entries:
- A mid range reclaim would then target a range high move going into the end of the year.
- A safer entry of filling the wick set in the beginning of august with a slow grind down, sweep liquidity, reclaim and pump from there.
Both situations would require BTC to behave as always.
Aethir ATH price price hinting at a hike to the ATH mark?)Someone is moving the OKX:ATHUSDT price very well from level to level.
Keeping the #ATH price above $0.067 will confirm the desire and ability to follow the blue scenario, which is only +75%)
P.S:
this afternoon, the US inflation rate is announced, previous 3.0%, forecast 3.0%.
It will be volatile, place your buckets)
CME gap still not closed! Expect uptake of price and more ATH Increadibly, CME is still open now with a secondary formation because of bitcoin volatility
The gap is marked with the orange box with range 59,445 and 62,470
Extremily possible that price will need to go there, so big players do not lose money
Another evidence that price will go there, is that the price of bitcoin is finishing a flag pattern
Target of bull flag is around 85,000 usd per CRYPTOCAP:BTC
BTC 1D OUTLOOKBitcoin is in a tricky place right now. The fear and greed index has cooled off massively and now sits at a neutral score of 55. General sentiment is very poor and after nearly 2 months of sideways action traders/investors are getting restless especially after the promise of price rally post-halving, but is there any positive news?
The chart is pretty clear, HTF is bullish, still above the 1D 200EMA but LTF is bearish. BTC has clearly broken its uptrend and is now in a bearish trend channel, although there has been a breakout attempt, for now it seems to be a fakeout. For me this leaves 2 scenarios;
- Trigger 1 is a breakout trade where confirmation is needed to avoid another fakeout, this includes making a higher high after a new lower high and therefor confirming a new bullish structure after breaking out of the bearish channel.
- Trigger 2 is more of a bearish scenario but one I believe would be better in the long run. There is a large inefficiency area between 52K-56.5K, price seeks to fill these fair value gaps and as long as that area is left unfilled it will always attract price to it, now this could be filled at anytime in BTC's lifespan but it would make the most sense to do it now rather than after price has another huge rally as the risk of a complete capitulation move down to fill this area would grow. Another reason I believe it makes the most sense is that the 1D 200 EMA is at the bullish OB+ level, in a Bullrun this level is a great point to enter longs as it provides strong support. Adding all these layers of confluence suggests this bullish OB+ area should it provide a positive reaction, would be a good area to enter longs which also would mean the altcoin market would also see a positive move as it is currently massively oversold and would bring traders to be more risk on.
The halving so far has not brought the desired bullish narrative that a lot of people expected but it would never going to be a reason for Bitcoins price to suddenly move up, it's one that will gradually have an impact as the supply shock has a lasting effect on miners and institutional investors.
Patience is key in this game, I believe that this quarter will remain a choppy frustrating one as BTC cools off after a year long rally and gets ready for the next leg up. Making sure that the portfolio is a strong as it can be for the next leg of the Bullrun is key and capital preservation is number 1. Trading because of boredom can be very costly. Stick to your plan as best you can to avoid any mistakes.
G/USDT NEW ATH POSSIBLITYThe last data shows that G/USDT has a good chance to create a new volume in the coming time frames, we will follow up to see if this coin is able to have confirmation in the coming time frames.
G/USD has a history of breakdown trends, we will follow the coin to see if this is the reversal trend.
There is possibility for new ATH
29/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $69,404.60
Last weeks low: $63,458.72
Midpoint: $66,431.66
As July comes to an end a lot has happened in the last month, from starting the month @ $53,000 to now just above '21 ATH.
Last week we saw a lot of volatility caused by some news events, namely the ETH ETF & Bitcoin Conference. The structure of the price range differs to the previous two weeks were price started low and finished high. In this instance we have a midweek low after ETHEREUM ETF went live and then price ramped back up in anticipation for the BTC conference with Donald Trump making a speech as well as Michael Saylor and RFK jr, all of which were extremely bullish on the crypto space and pledged to improve Americas relationship with the industry and increase holdings of BTC.
Now price is currently positioned above the $69,000 '21 ATH which has been one of the most important S/R levels over the last year, acting as the catalyst for major moves off both upside and down. I would like to see the daily close out above this level with conviction, general sentiment is to get nervous at this level as in the past it has failed to hold. CT is silent even though we're within touching distance of ATH and that purely comes from repetitive failure to hold this line.
This week I'm keeping an eye on the inflows and outflows of both BTC & ETH ETFs, the $69,000 S/R level and strength returning to the altcoin market which has continued to take a back seat in recent weeks/ months. Blackrock have expressed their want to increase exposure to RWAs and so real world assets on the Ethereum chain could be a good place to start.
ATHUSDT - Golden Pocket to the Moon +100% Gains in Sight!Should we panic or buy the fear? We've had a deep retracement on alts across the board. Let's break it down and figure out our strategy for this long opportunity.
LONG TRADE - CONFLUENCE
Golden Pocket: The price has perfectly retraced to the golden pocket between the 0.618 and 0.666 Fibonacci levels.
Point of Control (POC): This area also coincides with the POC, adding to its significance as a support level.
Fibonacci Speed Fan: The 0.786 level of the Fibonacci speed fan aligns with our golden pocket and POC, reinforcing this area as a strong support zone.
Long Trade Setup: High-Probability Trade
Entry Point:
Golden Pocket: Enter a long trade from the golden pocket area around $0.07.
Stop-Loss Placement:
Below POC: Place the SL just below the golden pocket/POC (tight SL) or place the SL below the swing low at around 0.064.
Target Levels:
First Take Profit (TP1): Set the first TP at $0.10.
Overall Target (TP2): Aim for the overall target at $0.147.
ATH's retracement to the golden pocket offers a prime opportunity for a long trade with an excellent R:R. The confluence of the golden pocket, POC and Fibonacci speed fan makes this a strong support zone and an ideal entry point.
What are your thoughts on this analysis? Are you ready to go long on ATH?
BITCOIN CONFERENCE 2024In the chart I've highlighted some key areas of interest going into the BITCOIN CONFERENCE in Nashville. With Trump scheduled to speak and his recent track record of being bullish on BTC and crypto in general, my natural instinct is this will be a bullish event for the space.
Trump recently started taking campaign donations in BTC and selected JD Vance as his VP should he be elected. Vance is known to have over $100,000 in BTC so they are both pro crypto and should this be expressed at the conference it is bullish for the space.
Is this a sell the news event? With BTC's recent rally from the lows of ~$63,500 to now ~$68,000 you could argue that the conference is priced in as the 7% gain since midweek would suggest. I do predict volatility that may look like a sell the news event initially but ultimately I cannot see that being the case. For me, if we lose the "MINI RANGE MIDPOINT" with a clean break below then I would start to rethink that stance.
Personally I think we whipsaw between " MINI RANGE MIDPOINT" & "'21 ATH". Historically since the start of the year the '21 ATH is the most important level as all major moves both bullish and bearish are triggered from that level.
NEAR protocol on the WEEKLY NEAR is a project that covers all the bases. A Web3 Layer 1 with the capability for unlimited transactions per second (TPS) that's transparent and accessible to everyone. NEAR protocol has begun venturing into the AI space pushed by Co-Founder Illia Polosukhin who is an AI researcher himself, with an AI marketplace as he believes AI is one of the core verticals for the NEAR ecosystem going into the future.
The near chart is a promising one for the future. Having already experienced the 2022 altseason, we can gauge where NEAR will meet resistance, and sellside pressure areas and of course previous ATH. Using Fibonacci levels combined with range quarters we can split up an otherwise daunting chart into sections of a large range. Since the rally began in the beginning of 2024 price has broken above the 0.75 line and has been retested for support, of which it held and is now key support. With BTC's rally on the recent CPI numbers, the stronger altcoins followed suit and now NEAR is targeting the MIDPOINT of the range at $10.72 (0.5 level). From then on there is a clear FVG resistance before hitting the highs.
I have used the Fib levels as long term Take Profit areas, who knows how long it may take to get there or even if we get there at all. However the fundamentals of the Project are very strong, with a great team and expanding into high interest narratives like AI all add up to a very promising project. The one downside is that circulating supply is not capped and will grow at 5% each year. Therefor the tokenomics are not as favourable to investors as for example Injective INJ which has a capped at 100,000,000 coins and currently has 94% of that circulating and that limits dilution of token value.
I'm very bullish on NEAR in the long run, the current LTF bearish pullback has been punishing for the majority of alts however NEAR has held up very well. The AI narrative backing it as well will surely help it progress and the accessibility of being available on all the major exchanges.
ETHEREUM ETF With the Ethereum ETF decision just days away, ETH has made a massive breakout play in an effort to front run a positive ETF outcome, the approval of VanEck and ArkInvest/ 21Shares ETH ETFs on the 23rd & 24th May respectively.
In terms of price action and charting this is how I see it. Now that price has broken out from the downtrend and hit the Bearish OB as shown, I think many were caught of guard and expected any sort of volatility to come on the day of the decisions. Instead it seems many have decided to front run the decision and go long which opens up more challenges. I think ETH had priced in a rejection of the ETF at ~£3K , with how the SEC has viewed ETH and it's stance on insisting it's a security, Coinbase estimated a 30-40% chance of an approval last weekend. Now that price has risen almost as if we already have news of approval I think that should the ETF be denied we could fall straight back down to $3K area with support areas shown as targets on the chart. This would print a Bart Simpson style pattern and many Longs will be devastated.
On the other hand, Bloomberg have said that the chances of approval has gone from 25% to 75% and the chart shows this new level of optimism. If the ETF is approved I could see ETH using this current level as a base to target new local highs and close the gap on BTC dominance.
Next target for $BTC around 83KFrom the last wordwide events, next attractor for CRYPTOCAP:BTC is the green box
Why? CRYPTOCAP:BTC has broken out from the flag pattern and already made a retest from the ceiling, also breaking out from past Fibonacci Circle resistence
Note how the Fibonacci Circles have been serving as pivot and resistence points!
Next important Fib Circle resistence lies over the light blue continuous line and the target of the flag lies at the purple arrow right over the all-times-high!
So, there is confluence! We have flag target, plus ATH, plus Fib Circle resistence
The dotted blue line is a very important multiyear resistente and is very plausible that over it will be at least a bull trap taking CRYPTOCAP:BTC to that resistence line (dark blue continuous line)
Long Nasdaq Turtle soup from potential Low of weekSeasonally bullish July. HTF still bullish imo. Turtle soup long after deep sweep of Weds 3rd July low and after touching +bkr 4hr CE, and after reaching ABCD down projection. Ideally now i want hourly bodies to respect one of these levels, and us to get a lower timeframe break up in structure. If it keeps spooling down all day, then i'll take the loss.
-NQ has been very much weak sister for many days now, feels to me like it's time for it to start showing relative strength now and and become the stronger sister to ES.
-Seeing if we put in Low of week here in the opening hour, or later today.
-Buying around the ABCD downleg projection, and the +OB wick CE W
-Stop below +OBMT W and just below an old daily low (Tues 2nd July): Basically full exit/loss if we properly lose the +OBMT W below.
-Ultimate target is the nice 20600 ABCD confluence (ABCD projections align here from both the 2023-2024 swing and the June'24 swing). Gut says we have NOT properly topped in indices.
-Will take paritals at FVG H nearby overhead, and move stop for remaining position to breakeven.
-Will take further partials and trail stop if we breach ATH Nasdaq.
-Will take last of position off at the beautiful ABCD projection confluence 21600, if we get up there before early August.
-If this runs up, i'm willing to hold til the end of the month (Indices are seasonally bullish in July)
-For confirmation of shift back to bull in earnest, i want to see the FVG H above us 'flipped' bullish (resist, small retrace, then power on up through it)
*Note to self: i should really wait to enter after getting low timeframe confirmation of a bottom, but i'll be totally honest: i want the satisfaction of potentially catching the low of week; I accept the risk of price just spooling on down and stopping me out today.
**Just an idea for paper trading, not financial advice
Top of the Band Top of the World Toppy TopYeahhh wowww... moved wayy beyond any expectations.
So insanely booleesh, face-ripping bear-killing rally from Hell.
How long can it go on?
Double topped RSI at 80%, see arrows. Top of the Bolly Band.
Explosive blow-off style rally to massive new ATH for SPX, NQ.
Might have another day or two in it.
Notice that DJI already topped at 40K and RTY has barely moved... divergence, goes back to Dow Theory, non-confirming.
This rally is almost entirely driven by the Mag 7, tech and AI froth.
Chasing it here is unlikely to be profitable IMO.
Gonna get some kind of pullback in back half of July. Think about closing longs. Shorts might print finally. GLTA
08/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $63,884.22
Last weeks low: $53,536.87
Midpoint: 58,710.54
A continuation of BTC selling off has lead to a loss of nearly $10,000 from Bitcoins price from high to low. This sell off is mostly propelled by large selling pressure caused by the German Government selling, however they still have $2.2B of BTC to sell and Mt.Gox begin repayments of stolen funds from 2014 causing increased selling pressure.
From a TA standpoint BTC is still LTF bearish, but the interesting part is the HTF's as BTC is retesting the 1D 200EMA as resistance since breaking below it last week. In a Bullrun you really don't want to see too much time spent under the 1D 200EMA, it should really act as strong support and a place to add to LONG positions.
This week I would like to see the Bullish OB+ @ $52,000 tagged before making a judgment on where BTC is going next. It's a strong support area that will attract price too it, TA says this is a good area to go LONG but this is definitely not a blind bid environment. It also happens to be a 30% drop from ATH which has been a common Bullrun correction in the past.
This week my focus is on the ETH ETF updates, the S-1 forms rumoured to be due tomorrow, then it's down tot the SEC to turn them around. ETH is around $3000 with sentiment at yearly lows, definitely an opportunity there.
Also the BTC1D 200EMA is a point of contention and an important S/R level.
01/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $63,700.01
Last weeks low: $58,451.16
Midpoint: $61,075.58
Q2 ENDS - Q3 BEGINS
After a rough quarter of sideways chop, ranging between ~$56K-73K it's safe to say that the last 3 months has been a tough one for the crypto markets. Despite the frustration with price it's important to realise the positive elements of the last quarter. The ETH ETF approval, THE HALVING, consolidation at the '21 ATH level are all bullish for the industry as a whole.
As the weekly, monthly and quarterly all close, July 1st almost feels like a new chapter, one that needs to begin strong. Last week we saw BTC dip to the 1D 200EMA for the first time this calendar year. This is not uncommon in a Bullrun, a bounce off that moving average while it is trending up is often a good R:R entry level for a HTF position. This lines up well with how last week played out and until price breaks below the moving average and changes its trend direction, I do not believe we have reason to panic.
As the first few trading hours of the new quarter have completed we can see that there is a clear S/R level at the 0.75 range line that was flipped, I would like to see a positive reaction off any retest of that level. As I stated before starting a new quarter positively can have a positive impact. Staying above $62,400 is important in the short term, $65,000 is resistance and an important S/R zone.
In the altcoin market tomorrow is an exciting day as the ETH ETF goes live , we've seen what an ETF can do with BTC and potentially the same thing can happen with ETH, the difference in my opinion is that institutions and larger investors were all expecting the BTC ETF to be approved when it did. However, I do not believe that those same players expected ETH ETF's to be approved as soon as they did. It is no secret that the SEC has been arguing that Ethereum is a security and therefor comes under the SEC's regulatory power which was always a point of contention and made ETF approval unlikely. Now that the probe has been dropped by the SEC and they have relinquished power over the cryptocurrency, the ETF is set to go live and I believe the big players just weren't prepared for this to happen so quickly hence the delay in price movement comparable to BTC. We shall see if this delayed response continues as trading goes live but I have no doubt that over the long term this is a net positive for ETH and the altcoin market.
In the broader alt space we can see clear signs of seller exhaustion . BTC dropped 10% last week and most alts didn't react anywhere near as negatively as this move usually does. That to me is a clear sign that sellers are all sold out and that buyers are happy to DCA in at these levels to balance price.
This week I am keeping an eye on those altcoins that outperformed BTC last week on their BTC pairs with good fundamentals as these alts will perform the best on the next rally. ETHEREUM ETF trading is the main talking point of the week and I will be monitoring that closely.
GOOD LUCK FOR Q3