Bullish potential detected for CNIEntry conditions:
(i) higher share price for ASX:CNI along with swing up of indicators such as DMI/RSI.
Stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) below the low of the recent swing low on 12th September following the gap-up (i.e.: below $1.775), or
(ii) below the support level from the open of 26th August (i.e.: below $1.745), depending on risk tolerance.
ASX
Potential outside week and bullish potential for DXSEntry conditions:
(i) higher share price for ASX:DXS above the level of the potential outside week noted on 4th October (i.e.: above the level of $7.84).
Stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) below the swing low of 1st October (i.e.: below $7.50), should the trade activate.
ASX to find buyers at the market price?AU200AUD - 24h expiry
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Although we remain bullish overall, a correction is possible with plenty of room to move lower without impacting the trend higher.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 8375 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 8425.
We look to Buy at 8320 (stop at 8270)
Our profit targets will be 8440 and 8465
Resistance: 8375 / 8400 / 8425
Support: 8320 / 8300 / 8275
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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ASX to new highs, or fakeout in the making?The ASX 200 futures chart reached a record high on Wednesday, and momentarily traded above 8400. Yet repeatedly we see the market hold above this level (also note the weekly R3 pivot is within the area).
A bearish divergence is forming on the 1-hour chart, so the bias is for a false break of the highs and retracement lower ahead of its next sustained record high.
Bears could seek a move towards the 20-hour or 50-hour EMA, or bulls could wait for such a level to be respected as support before rejoining the bullish trend.
*Take note that AU employment data is released in just over 1hr*
MS
Potential key reversal top detected for GMGLevel of interest: $36.67 area level of interest proved problematic on 22nd July (key support/resistance area to observe).
Stop loss for the trade involving ASX:GMG (and indication that this trade is an absolute 'no-go') is any trade above the high of the signal day of 20th September (i.e.: any trade above $37.12).
Potential outside week and bullish potential for ASLEntry conditions:
(i) higher share price for ASX:ASL above the level of the potential outside week noted on 27th September (i.e.: above the level of $1.265).
Stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) below the swing low of 23rd September (i.e.: below $1.10), should the trade activate.
SiteMinder (ASX: SDR) - Bullish Momentum Towards Buy-Side LiquidAnalysis and Prediction:
In this analysis, we observe how SiteMinder (ASX: SDR) has reacted exceptionally well off the monthly order block (OB), providing a strong impulse to the upside. This bullish move confirms the demand and buying pressure at this level, suggesting that price is poised to continue its upward trajectory.
On the daily chart, we can see that the price has broken structure (BOS) after tapping into a Fair Value Gap (FVG), further validating bullish momentum. The price respected the FVG upon retesting, offering strong confirmation that buyers are in control, and we anticipate a continuation towards the next buy-side liquidity level.
I project SiteMinder to reach a minimum of AU$7.73 as the next buy-side liquidity area. However, after hitting this level, I foresee a potential retracement before resuming its broader upward trend, offering opportunities for both short-term and long-term traders.
Given the confluence of signals—price reacting off the monthly OB, respecting the FVG, and breaking structure—we have solid confirmation of bullish momentum in play. Traders should consider this context when planning their entries and exits, with a focus on price action near key liquidity levels.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) before making any investment decisions.
Bullish potential detected for RZIEntry conditions:
(i) breach of the upper confines of the Darvas box formation for ASX:RZI - i.e.: above high of $0.45 of 11th September (most conservative entry), or
(ii) swing up of indicators such as DMI/RSI along with a test of prior level of $0.425 from 9th September.
Stop loss for the trade (based upon the Darvas box formation) would be:
(i) below the support level from the low of 24th September (i.e.: below $0.405).
Potential key reversal bottom detected for EDVLevel of interest: Prior support/resistance level from previous trade at $5.00 even (key support/resistance area to observe).
Stop loss for the trade involving ASX:EDV (and indication that this trade is an absolute 'no-go') is any trade below the low of the signal day of 5th September (i.e.: any trade below $4.92).
Bullish potential detected for SGPEntry conditions:
(i) breach of the upper confines of the Darvas box formation for ASX:SGP - i.e.: above high of $5.10 of 27th August (most conservative entry), or
(ii) swing up of indicators such as DMI/RSI along with a test of prior level of $5.05 from 27th August.
Stop loss for the trade (based upon the Darvas box formation) would be:
(i) below the support level from the low of 28th August (i.e.: below $4.92).
Potential outside week and bearish potential for TWEEntry conditions:
(i) lower share price for ASX:TWE below the level of the potential outside week noted on 20th September.
Stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) above the swing high of 19th September (i.e.: above $11.56), once the trade has activated.
Potential outside week and bullish potential for MYREntry conditions:
(i) higher share price for ASX:MYR above the level of the potential outside week noted on 6th September (adjusted with the incidence of the inside week the following week, allowing activation of the trade above the level of the range for that week, i.e.: above the level of $0.855, as depicted by the blue dotted line and accompanying text on the chart).
Stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) below the swing low of 4th September (i.e.: below $0.795), should the trade activate.
ASX 200 futures enter the “death zone” for bulls ASX 200 SPI futures and bullish moves above 8000 haven’t mixed well in 2024, resulting in a raft of failed breaks, long topside wicks and topping patterns. It’s akin to a “death zone” for bulls, starving rallies of oxygen before eventually reversing.
I’m not outright bearish just because we’re back above the level, especially when momentum indicators are providing mixed signals, but I am interested in what happens near-term as it may dictate what happens longer-term. We’ll either get another topping pattern, or a bullish raid will finally stick. So, I’m waiting. I’m especially interested in how the price fares around 8080, if it gets there. The market has only been able to push through it once and never closed there.
Given the track record and current valuations, I’m more inclined to sell rallies but I want the price signal to do so. If we see another failed attempt around 8080, you could sell with a stop either above the level or the high set in August, depending on your eventual target. On the downside, the 50-day moving average looms as one, with 7871, 7794 and 7721 the next after that.
If the price were to break and close above 8121 before extending the move, the bearish bias would be negated.
Good luck!
DS
Bullish potential detected for SIQEntry conditions:
(i) higher share price for ASX:SIQ along with swing up of indicators such as DMI (+DMI above ADX at the very least) and RSI.
Stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) tight at $7.85 beneath the tail of the signal day (30th August), depending on risk tolerance.
ASX 200 futures look ominous heading into NFPIts failure to retest 8,000 after a feeble 2-day recovery this week looks like it may not take much to topple ASX 200 futures for another leg lower. And with an all-important NFP report lined up and traders heavily focused on minor signs of weakness, the path of least resistance could well be lower. Matt Simpson take a quick look.
Potential key reversal top detected for CU6Level of interest: $6.60 area level of interest proved problematic on 01-Aug (key support/resistance area to observe).
Stop loss for the trade involving ASX:CU6 (and indication that this trade is an absolute 'no-go') is any trade above the high of the signal day of 23rd August (i.e.: any trade above $7.25).
ASX WTM - Exploratory EMA Strategy: 30-Min Back-TestThis script implements a simple EMA crossover strategy for backtesting purposes on 30-minute intervals. It uses the following parameters:
Entry Signal: Triggered when the 118-period EMA crosses above the 150-period EMA.
Exit Signal: Triggered when the 18-period EMA crosses below either the 118-period or 150-period EMA.
Backtest Results (6M):
Net Profit: 1,565.10 AUD (+156.51%)
Total Closed Trades: 2
Percent Profitable: 50.00%
Max Drawdown: 47.61 AUD (4.76%)
Average Trade: 782.55 AUD (78.26%)
These results are based on a 6-month period using 30-minute candles and should be taken with caution. This strategy performed well during this period, but past performance is not indicative of future results. Remember, this script is intended for back-testing and exploration only.
ASX futures snap 9-day streak, further downside loomsYesterday I outlined why I was suspicious of the ASX 200 rally, and today I see it has now retraced. The ASX 200 futures market snapped an 11-day streak after forming a bearish pinbar perfectly at a 78.6% Fibonacci level, below the 8,000 handle. Volumes have been declining during the entire ‘rally’ which shows a lack of bullish enthusiasm, and potentially points to a deeper pullback.
A bearish trend has developed on the 1-hour chart, and the support zone ~7917/25 has now been respected as resistance. The bias is to fade into rallies towards that resistance zone in anticipation of a move down to 7860.
ASX 200 mimics Wall Street's 'risk-on' rally into Jackson HoleOverbought indicators are of little use when markets are obsessed with rate cuts ahead of a key fed speech. Jerome Powell will speak at the Jackson hole symposium and Friday, and expectations for a dovish show are high. And that's helped Wall Street indices extend gains and the allowed the ASX 200 to tag along for the ride. But if this turns out to be a classic 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' tale, traders may need to factor in some of the overbought clues on the daily chart.
ASX 200 futures test their luck below resistanceI see a common connection when looking across Wall Street futures, ASX 200 and the Nikkei. They're all retracing higher after a large drop and grinding their way towards resistance levels. And that could appeal to bearish swing traders.
ASX 200 futures (SPI) are within their 8th day higher. And as they have only recouped around 2/3rds of the drop rom the fall the record high (and over a longer timeframe than the drop) I suspect a swing high is due. Note Tuesday's doji, and subsequent price action has traded in the upper wick of that doj.
A resistance cluster hovers around 7873 - 7900, and we favour fading into any moves towards it with a stop above 7700. Bears could target just above 7700 for a downside target.