Ascending Channel
Bitcoin - Explosive breakout, watch this bull flag!
Bitcoin is forming a bullish flag pattern or a wedge pattern on the daily chart, and that's why we can expect an explosive breakout in the immediate short term! The question is, when is it going to be? I would say this or next week, because the price could still touch the upward yellow trendline. But the decision will be very soon!
Bitcoin is bullish because the price is above the yellow trendline and above the 200-day simple moving average. They are pretty close to each other. This moving average is considered strong support / resistance by huge institutions and hedge funds. It can also be a 200-week MA or a 200-month MA. They are pretty good.
The target of this bullish flag / wedge is the white trendline. Make sure you take profit here because we could crash from this point!
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I share my trades transparently and post trade setups privately.
Usually September is a bearish month, but we still have almost a month. Bitcoin usually pumps in 1-3 straight candles when no one is expecting it. It can be really fast!
XRP also reached a strong support that can send it to higher prices, specifically 1.7 USDT per coin. It's a good time to buy it!
I remain bullish on BTC, but on the intraday chart, we could still have some imbalance and wicks to take liquidity before going to 32k. Let me know in the comment section what you think about BTC. I look forward to your comments!
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BTC Swing AnalysisHi friends.
Today im going to take a brief look at Bitcoin.
According to New Cryptocurrency market Catalyst , I mean
launching PayPal Stable coin , we can look at BTC chart Technically better.
So lets take a look:
1.After reaching price to the Middle line of drawn channel , it failed to break it.
so went approach lower channel line that overlapped with a strong support level(28000-28800 level)
2.When we reach this level , an Engulfing candle appears in 4H timeframe.
3.We have a strong fundamental Catalyst about PayPal stable coin(Remember that past Bullrun to 67000$ level starts with accepting Bitcoin by PayPal)
4.If we pass this area , the first target is 31800 and after that we have a strong resistance at 36500 level.
5.Classically , price is shaping a flag pattern that its target is the middle line of growing channel in around 33000 level.
Hope you enjoy my view in Bitcoin.
Share me your opinion in comments.
What do you think?
GOLD → Waiting for a trap before a further fall OANDA:XAUUSD is still testing trend support and testing the market reaction. The price is not able to grow at the moment and continues to update local lows
On the futures market, the price failed to pass through the 2000 area, on the spot market, the situation is simpler - we see a continued decline in price. The price is trying to get out of the descending price channel, but apparently gold is in the liquidity area, which does not let the price below 1930. A global upward shakeout may follow before a further decline. Or, if the price overcomes the resistance of 1943, then the market will enter a recovery phase and strengthen the price. The potential for growth to 1954-1970 will be opened.
At the moment consolidation below the support is forming - a signal for a possible sale. Medium-term outlook 1927-1970
Support levels: 1930, 1927.5
Resistance levels: 1943. 1954
I expect a shakeout or false breakdowns of the local resistance and if the price continues to consolidate below the support, the market will give us a drop. BUT! If the price returns beyond 1943, the growth will start within the descending channel
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Support retest indicates buyer weakness OANDA:XAUUSD has weak buying power at the moment. There is no update of local highs, the price is returning to the support retest. The probability of support breakdown is increasing
On the daily timeframe the price tried to test the strong resistance 1939, a false breakdown is formed and consolidation below the level. After this phase we saw a local distribution and another retest of the downtrend support. The price is testing another support at 1935.8, consolidation below the level will create a bearish potential and in the short term the price may form an impulse to 1927.
Support levels: trend support, 1935.8, 1927.5.
Resistance levels: 1943.3, 1954.
The probability that the support breakout will be true at this point is very high, the above described prerequisites for why the bulls are weak. On these bases, I am prioritizing a decline
Regards R. Linda!
GBPUSD → Pin-bar and reversal pattern on the support line FX:GBPUSD on the daily timeframe is forming a situation that suggests a buyback, at the same time a candlestick pattern and a false breakout are forming
The currency pair is in the format of the ascending price channel. Earlier support was tested and on the background of news the market bought back the fall at 1.36 which is quite a strong reaction.
After the local rally, the price is forming a correction, most likely to support or retest, which may be followed by a growth phase, coinciding with the trend direction.
Moving averages form a cross and play the role of resistance, it is worth paying attention to the support area of the uptrend.
Resistance levels: 1.27275, 1.28484
Support levels: 1.26800, trend support, 1.26065
I expect the end of correction in the area of uptrend support with the subsequent strengthening of the price within the uptrend.
Regards R. Linda!
EURUSD - Huge uptrend is ready! (prepare longs)
EURUSD is still extremely bullish because the price is above the 200-day daily moving average and also above the major white trendline. Trend is your friend, so we want to take only longs!
The price is also inside this ascending parallel channel, and I expect another push to the upside to test the upward trendline of the channel. It's possible to bull-break this channel!
In the last 2 weeks, EURUSD has been going down, but it's just a re-test of the previous 2 trendlines. We needed this pullback for continuation to the upside. The retest was a great buying opportunity, but of course you can still enter the market at the current price if you find a good setup on lower timeframes.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I share my trades transparently and post trade setups privately.
When trading EURUSD, we need to consider the DXY index. This index is pretty bearish, and I will probably do an analysis on it as well, so make sure you follow me for more updates!
The MACD indicator tells us that the trend is rolling over from bearish to bullish again. The histogram is ticking to the upside, which is of course a bullish sign.
In conclusion, I am bullish on the euro, and I would take only longs for the next few weeks!
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I post ideas mainly on BTC, so if you want more EURUSD ideas, support with like and comment, so I know I should continue!
GOLD → FB of flag support. Consolidation near resistance OANDA:XAUUSD continues to form a descending price range after the breakout of the bullish trend. A "flag" pattern is forming within the new channel, a false breakout was made on Friday
There is not much important news in the coming week, but it is worth paying attention to Thursday and Friday, the reports may provide insight for the medium-term outlook.
Bottom right chart - a flag is forming against the background of the upward momentum. On Friday, the price makes a false breakout of the support of the figure and in the first half of the new week there may be a strengthening of the price and growth to the resistance area.
Within the global descending channel price is forming consolidation near resistance, most likely there may be a direct retest of the descending resistance in the area of 1858-1863, there may be an attempt to breakout.
BUT again, if sellers are strong, and if you look at the chart, the bearish scenario is developing at the moment, a fall from the channel resistance, a retest of 1935 and a further fall to 1902 may follow.
The price is in a range, it is worth paying attention to such levels as: MA50, trend resistance, support 1935.5
Regards R. Linda!
BTCUSD → A logical correction will test a strong support area BITSTAMP:BTCUSD continues to form a global ascending price channel. The actual counter-trend correction at the moment does not indicate any change of trend, an adequate reaction to the strong resistance area formed back in 2021 is being formed.
The price on the daily chart is forming a local support line 28850, a pre-breakdown consolidation and false breakdown is formed, there is no reaction in the form of a rebound, and the price continues to form a squeeze to the support. In the near future 28850 may be broken and the price will test 28450, a false breakdown is possible. Also within this correction the price may test the support of the ascending triangle and 200-day moving average. The price may technically decline in order to purchase the asset at more favorable prices.
The cryptocurrency market emphasizes more on fundamentals than on technical analysis, it plays a secondary role in this partnership. Crypto players are waiting for some news to activate the movement in one direction or another.
Interesting nuances recently:
1) Approval of the spot BTC-ETF will lead to billions of dollars of non-investment inflows into the market
2) The government has stepped up BTC protagging for June-July
3) Mainers collectively stopped selling and started accumulating BTC. Their reserves are growing
4) Minimal liquidity is accumulating strong consolidation. A surge in volumes may follow in the near future
Strong support levels: 28850, 28450, figure support, MA-200
Strong resistance levels: 29650, 30575, figure resistance.
This correction is a logical move in the market. The price can't grow all the time. I expect bullish activity after retesting the support area.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Consolidation below support ahead of NFP. Trap? OANDA:XAUUSD has been consolidating below the previously broken descending channel support for two days. From the basic fundamentals, this formation suggests a strengthening sentiment for further declines, but there are always nuances to it
Analysts were expecting bearish news for the dollar, which was previously published, but the index is showing a bullish bias, suggesting an improving economy.
Fitch downgraded the long-term rating of the US to AA+ from AAA
This is not good news for the dollar, but still:
The U.S. was downgraded to AA in 2011, which caused the market to fall hard, but earnings and economic conditions were different at the time.
This downgrade by Fitch is not fundamental as the economy is growing and profits are rising to service this debt.
In terms of technical analysis, after a rally to the 1980 area, a correction in the format of a flag-like descending channel is forming, but at some point things don't go according to plan and price breaks the channel support, forming a consolidation and forming liquidity before further declines.
Ahead of NonFarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate publication, analysts are expecting bearish data, but based on earlier press releases, the numbers could be the opposite, which could provide new bullish potential for the dollar, and gold could fall to 1900.
Support levels: 1933, 1930, 1927, 1912
Resistance levels: 1943, 1954
In priority I expect the price to fall to the lower support levels, but the price can break the situation if the expected fundamental data is confirmed.
Regards R. Linda!
Bitcoin prediction 2028 (Fibonacci channel, must know)!
This is my projection for the next 5 years. Bitcoin always rapidly grows after the halving event. But around 16 months after the halving event, Bitcoin started to crash significantly.
On the chart, we can see a very important Fibonacci channel on the LOG scale. The 0.618 FIB is always a strong level, and bitcoin hit it almost to the dollar in 2022. Take a look at it! We deeply need to keep this Fibonacci channel in mind. The strongest FIB levels are 0.618 and 0.382. 0.618 + 0.382 = 1. Bitcoin loves these Fibos.
Please do not expect some big parabolic phase to reach 500,000 USD in the next few months or years. This is not going to happen because you are too late for the exponential party. 100,000 - 120,000 in 2025 is a realistic target!
Bitcoin is a good investment, and you can trade the major cycles. Buy low, sell high. It's easy to say, but it's not that easy for the majority of market participants.
As per my calculations, the price of Bitcoin will be 1 million USD in 2044, which is 21 years ahead.
In approx. 2140, all Bitcoins should be mined, and there will be no new BTC mined at all. Miners will receive rewards from the transactions of chain users.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I share my trades transparently and post trade setups privately.
Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Bear markets and crashes:
2011 - 93.75%
2014 - 86.94%
2018 - 84.22%
2022 - 77.57%
2026 - 71.67% ?
GOLD → Support breakout & consolidation. Fall after the shake-upOANDA:XAUUSD is breaking the range support, and on the daily chart the price is testing one of the key support levels. Here the candlestick analysis indicates the preconditions for further decline
The price is breaking the support of the descending range. Consolidation of the price below the previously broken support is formed. Since the price is forming consolidation, most likely, while the market is gaining liquidity, false breakdowns (shake-ups) are possible relative to resistance and support of the conditional boundaries. On the daily timeframe, the price is testing 1935. The price on Wednesday closed quite close to the level, which indicates that the market is not ready to end the movement, it may continue.
Important news is published today. It is worth paying attention to: Initial Jobless Claims, S&P PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI, these are the nuances we dealt with on Sunday. Moving averages act as resistance
Support levels: 1932.9
Resistance levels: previously broken trend support, 1938.5, 1943
I expect the decline to continue based on candlestick and technical analysis. The market has broken support and is most likely preparing for a continuation of the decline. But there is news ahead, it may change the situation significantly
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Resistance pressure on D1. Waiting for news OANDA:XAUUSD is forming a descending range after breaking the local trend. On D1, the chart is showing strong pressure from resistance and is forming a descending triangle which could give a strong fall, but there is news ahead...
The price is testing the support at 1943 with the last move, making a false break and thus updating the local low to 1941.29. Based on the situation on the local timeframe and on the D1 we can say that the sellers are stronger, the fundamental background of the last trading week adds some confidence for this.
Today ADP NonFarm Employment Change is published ( analysts expect a decline in the indicator, therefore the dollar may react negatively ), this press release can give us a rough mood for Thursday and Friday ( INJ, ISM, Nfp, UR are published )
Still, technical analysis initially lays a large percentage of the expected movement, even before the publication of the news and at the moment there is a preponderance of forces in the direction that the market is preparing for a fall. When enough weighty news is published, this imbalance may shift and in this case the price may break 1954, 1960 and head towards 1974
Support levels: 1943
Resistance levels: 1954, 1960
In priority I expect a decline to 1943 with the subsequent breakout, but on the background of news the price may act unpredictably and break the resistance. Watch the price reaction.
Regards R. Linda!
💱USDJPY - Correction before further growth USDJPY is strengthening, making a false breakdown of local trend resistance. A correction towards the key support area is being formed, a rebound is likely to follow
TA on the high timeframe:
1) False break of 142.25 may form a rebound to 140.7
2) The price is updating the local maximum, we should not expect a strong fall, as the market has a key target of 144.69, most likely in the medium term we will see growth to this mark.
TA on the low timeframe:
1) A bearish correction is forming. This movement may test both 141.9 and 140.7.
2) There is no talk of a trend change, there is a strong bullish trend on the chart and a smooth transition into consolidation is forming.
3) Locally we have a bullish trend and in our case we should look for support levels to open long positions.
Key support📉: 141.95, 140.73
Key resistance📈:143.00
EURUSD → A false break of support could provide bullish momentumFX:EURUSD is forming a false breakdown of the support line. The price is still trying to hold within the bullish trend
The false break of the trend support led to an increase in liquidity, after which a reaction is formed in the market, which brings the price back into the channel and confirms the false breakdown.
The false breakout may be followed by a retest of 1.09480 which will signal that the price is not ready to rise and will start to fall. BUT! If the currency pair consolidates above the support line of the uptrend, the market will form the potential for strengthening.
Moving averages act as resistance.
Support levels: trend line, 1.0948.
Resistance levels: 1.1033, 1.1075.
I expect price consolidation above the support line, relative to which a false breakdown was made. After that I will wait for growth to the resistance.
Regards R. Linda!
Bitcoin - Bart pattern + Comment your altcoin!Make a comment with your altcoin below this idea, and I will give you my opinion/analysis of it in reply! Make sure you hit the boost button as well to participate. I will answer your comment with an analysis for you on the weekly/daily chart (long term). I start my analysis with Bitcoin:
The bart pattern is a new type of chart pattern that occurs specifically on Bitcoin but sometimes also on other coins. It's something like pump and dump, but at the top of the pattern we have a sideways price action that looks like a Bart's head.
Usually August and September are the most bearish months on Bitcoin, so I would not be surprised!
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When we look at the daily chart, we can see an ascending parallel channel with 3 touches at the bottom. This indicates to me that the bulls are losing steam because they are unable to make a parabolic uptrend!
There is still a possibility of going up to 32k - 33K in the short term, but this is something I don't want to speculate on. And even if Bitcoin could pump to these higher levels, the crash would follow either way.
My Elliott Wave count suggests that a deep retracement is on the way up back to 20k or 21k, which is definitely a good price to buy as much Bitcoin as possible and prepare for the new bull market in 2024 and 2025. Also, you can open a long-term leveraged position on futures in this zone.
We still need to wait around 8 months for the halving event, and that's plenty of time for a crash. We have a lot of unfilled FVGAPs and a CME GAP below the current price. They are going to be filled sooner or later.
If we take a LOG fibonacci retracement from 16.3k to 31.5k, we can see that the 0.618 golden ratio is at 20303. The whales really like to buy BTC at this specific Fibonacci level, as it has the highest successful rate of all Fibonacci levels.
This bart pattern looks pretty funny, but if you are on the wrong side of the market, it's definitely not funny. The price moves extremely fast, and you can wake up into a massive red dildo.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I share my trades transparently and post trade setups privately.
Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
💱 EURCHF - A reversal pattern. What to expect from it? EURCHF is forming a reversal set-up. Against the backdrop of the global downtrend, this doesn't tell us much, but if the price overcomes the resistance, a quick trend reversal could be in order
TA on a high timeframe:
1) Strong bearish trend
2) Price continues to fall and test the bottom
3) Liquidity area that may be of interest to the market is above 0.96500
TA on the low timeframe:
1) A reversal setup is being formed relative to the 0.95987 level.
2) Consolidation between H&S base and 0.95897 support is possible, after which growth may follow
3) Bullish momentum may reach 0.96770 as this area is a global liquidity area.
Key support📉: 0.95987
Key resistance📈: 0.96500
Bitcoin About to Repeat 2020 Fractal!?!In mid August 2020 bitcoin was putting in something on its daily chart eerily similar to what is happening currently with the bitcoin price action. That 2020 chart is not shown here, but just to quickly recap for those who were not around then, bitcoin was coming out of a long bear market, putting in higher highs and higher lows, to the point of finding itself overextended inside of a rising parallel channel with triple bearish divergence on its RSI.
This of course would result in a violent yet swift correction to the downside that sent the price to levels most people at the time was not anticipating.
Fast forward to the present, and when we look at the chart, what is happening?
Bitcoin is coming out of a bear market, putting in higher highs and higher lows, finding itself now overextended inside of a rising parallel channel with triple bearish divergence on the RSI ladies and gentlemen.
Keep in mind that one does not need to view this as a fractal. Simple technical analysis tells one that when you have ascending price action accompanied by a bearishly diverging RSI, a correction most of the time ensues.
As of yet, we have not had the corrective follow thru in price action but as we enter into the new trading week, one has to believe it is now imminent.
So what levels should we be interested in as a buying opportunity if we breakdown?
I can start off by saying that a shallow move to the downside is extremely optimistic. And although price can reverse at any random point, it would not be wise to go long if we are to react at any shallow pullback in price. It is my humble opinion, that if we are to confirm a breakdown of the key 29500 level on the daily, the most optimum level for a long would be at the deepest level possible where one can strategize a proper stop loss. That would be the 88.6% fibonacci retracement from our recent high down to 24758, which puts the entry at about 25500.
This also is an area where a value area low is located which gives this spot great confluence.
Bitcoin in August of 2020 made this same deep retrace to a VAL area before finding a bottom. And not just a bottom but THE bottom. Bitcoin would never come back to those levels ever again and would run all the way to 69k.
That is why everything in this idea is so important.
What about levels before 25500? One has to believe that there is some sort of bounce area before the extreme value area low.
Well if we look at the present chart, we see a nice range between our 61% retracement (27500) and the point of control (POC) of the value range at about 26800. Any support level above those 2 will be extremely thin and will most likely result in nothing more than a dead count bounce. Short sellers will jump heavily at any bounce if and when we begin to breakdown which is why any bounce at a shallow retracement will be difficult to trust as a bottom/reversal spot.
Many people are beginning to flip their bias short, so naturally, one must gameplan if this does not playout.
A scenario in which this bearish idea may be invalidated, could come about if price action maintained itself above 30k while the RSI and any other bearish looking oscilators reset. If the RSI can find itself back into the neutral zone before a breakdown occurs, there would be hope that a severe correction in price may be avoided. One way or another, however, something now has to give and correct itself. The question, is will it be the indicators, or the price action on the chart just as it did nearly 3 years ago to date.
Either way, one last buying opportunity of a lifetime for the number 1 cryptocurrency asset could be just on the horizon.
🥇GOLD - Consolidation below the support. Fibo retest GOLD after retesting the support area of the uptrend forms a false break of 0.5 fibo and declines, updating the local minimum at the beginning of the trading session. The market is forming consolidation below the previously broken support
TA on the high timeframe:
1) Price in range, resistance was tested earlier
2) Price failed to make a new high on a retest of resistance 1984
3) Price is forming liquidity areas
TA on the low timeframe:
1) A decline is formed after a retest of broken trend support
2) Price declines to 1950 and forms a retest of 0.382 fibo.
3) Most likely the market is looking for the area of local liquidity and forms consolidation of the potential for possible movement in one or the other direction
4) It is possible to decline from 0.382 fibo, or growth from 0.5 fibo.
Key support📉: 1948
Key resistance📈: 0.382 fibo and 0.5 fibo
GOLD → Prerequisites for a possible breakthrough of supportOANDA:XAUUSD forms a false breakdown of the specified resistance level of 1959.8. The fundamental factors of last week indicate the weakness of the instrument
After a strong bearish impulse from the resistance of the 1983.7 range, a correction is formed aimed at retesting the 1959.8 area, the resistance is not broken and the price begins to decline. An attempt to retest the support of 1948 is being formed, which is a prerequisite for the market's readiness for further decline.
The 1948 retest and the formation of pre-breakout consolidation near the level can form a potential at which the market can break support and decline by 1933.
A reversal pattern is formed on D1, to confirm its implementation, the price needs to overcome the specified support.
A bullish setup can appear only if the 1959 breakout and price consolidation above this line.
Support Levels: 1948
Resistance levels: MA 50, 1959
I expect a 1948 retest with a possible breakthrough of support and further decline.
Sincerely, R. Linda!