Will NVDIA rise at the expense of APPLE?We have seen in the past few days the NVDIA Corporation (NVDA) to be holding its ground better than other tech giants that got more inflated during the recent run like Tesla.
What we've discovered by running some regression tests among top 30 cap stocks, is a very interesting relationship between NVDIA and Apple Inc (AAPL). Though most people might think that the two have completely parallel paths on their growth, we found out that at times, their correlation has been negative.
Our sample data starts 2 years ago from the October - November 2022 market bottom of the Inflation Crisis. As you can see, this is where the first divergence between the two stocks started, with NVDIA rising to spearhead the recovery to a new Bull Cycle, while Apple was lagging behind and falling.
What followed was a period where naturally both stocks rose, which led to the first 'Bear' stage, what we call Phase 2 where both stocks showed a synchronized weakness (with Apple correcting more however).
Then after a recovery for both to their highs, NVDIA formed a Bull Flag, which led to Phase 3 (similar to the late 2022 price action): Apple topped and started falling aggressively, while NVDIA started an impressive rally.
Again a period of price increase for both stocks followed, which has led to a new Phase 2 (July -October 2024). In line with their 2-year pattern, Apple has been rising since the November U.S. elections, while NVDIA has formed a new Bull Flag.
If the price action continues to replicate this model, then we may see a new Phase 3, where Apple starts to correct while NVDIA's Bull Flag leads to a strong rally.
So do you think potential Apple capital outflows will turn into inflows for NVDIA?
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Apple
APPLE: Warning. Potential strong correction ahead.Apple is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 67.500, MACD = 4.850, ADX = 85.805) as it has been rising nonstop since November 4th and the U.S. elections. Yesterday's high though, hit the top of the 2 year Channel Up and the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from October's High-Low, with the 1D RSI reaching overbought levels. The last time we saw this exact combination of events was 1 year ago on the December 14th 2023 High. The result was a price correction to the October 2023 Low (S1). As long as the price doesn't make a new High, we are bearish on Apple, aiming at the S1 level (TP = 220.00).
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META 529 AFTER EARNINGS ? REASONS WHY !!
AI Integration and Advancements: Meta has been prioritizing the integration of artificial intelligence across its applications, which has played a crucial role in the company’s rally2. The market has responded positively to Meta’s efforts in developing and monetizing AI applications, leading to a boost in the stock price.
2. Digital Advertising Market Recovery: The digital advertising market has seen a rebound, which has directly benefited Meta’s core revenue stream. As one of the leaders in digital advertising, Meta’s financial performance has improved with the market’s recovery.
3. Operational Cost Reduction: Meta has implemented several rounds of layoffs, reducing its operating costs significantly. This move has improved the company’s profitability and margins, making it more attractive to investors.
4. Strategic Shifts: Meta has made strategic shifts, such as scaling back its investments in the metaverse, which were initially met with skepticism. This change in strategy has improved investor confidence and contributed to the stock’s growth.
5. Market Conditions: The overall market conditions, including interest rates and economic policies, have also played a role in Meta’s stock performance. A favorable environment for tech stocks has helped propel Meta’s stock to new heights.
Robinhood TP 23- 33 After earnings ? Reasons Why !!
In Q4 2023, Robinhood’s net revenues increased by 24% year-over-year to $471 million.
This growth was driven by higher net interest, transaction-based, and other revenues1.
The company reported net income of $30 million, a significant improvement from the net loss of $166 million in Q4 20221.
Adjusted EBITDA rose to $133 million, a 62% increase year-over-year1.
Customer Growth and Assets Under Custody (AUC):
Funded Customers increased by 420 thousand year-over-year to 23.4 million1.
AUC surged by 65% year-over-year to $102.6 billion1.
Market Expectations and Confidence
Robinhood’s ability to turn a profit in Q4, coupled with its record annual revenues, suggests that its strategic initiatives are paying off. The company’s innovative features and strong financial performance have instilled confidence in investors.
Remember that stock prices often respond to earnings reports. If the market believes a company is performing well, stock prices tend to go up. Conversely, if confidence wanes, stock prices may decline2.
Keep an eye on Robinhood’s upcoming earnings report on Wednesday, May 8th, 20243. It will provide further insights into the company’s performance and may impact its stock price.
SPX 5500 BY 2025 ? REASONS WHY !!!
Optimistic Market Forecasts: Analysts and strategists, such as those from Deutsche Bank and Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO, have made bullish predictions for the S&P 500. Deutsche Bank's forecast for the S&P 500 to reach 5,100 in 2024, and Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO Jay Hatfield anticipates the S&P to reach as high as 5,500 points by the end of 2024.
These forecasts indicate a strong belief in the market's potential to continue its upward trend.
Strong Earnings and Valuations: The trailing 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 of 25.7 is above the 5-year and 10-year averages. This suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for stocks, which could be a positive sign for further market growth.
Historical Performance: The S&P 500 has already hit 23 new records in 2024 and has been performing above average historical years. This indicates strong market momentum and investor confidence.
Cumulative Weight of Top Stocks: The cumulative weight of the top 5 stocks in the S&P 500 has hit a 50-year high. This indicates that the market's performance is being significantly influenced by the performance of a small number of large-cap companies, which could potentially drive the index higher if these companies continue to perform well.
Market Resilience and Recovery: The market has shown resilience and recovery from the economic downturn, with the S&P 500 already up by 9.6% this year, which is above the average year since 1950. This resilience could be a sign of continued growth throughout the year.
Positive Outlook from Analysts: Analysts like CFRA Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall predict that the S&P 500 will hit 5,400 by year-end and 5,610 within the next 12 months, indicating a positive outlook for the market's performance.
Potential Rate Cuts: The expectation of rate cuts by the European Central Bank could provide a boost to the global economy and the U.S. markets, including the S&P 500.
Positive Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment seems to be positive, with a bullish outlook on the S&P 500 from various analysts and strategists. This positive sentiment could drive further investment and growth in the market.
Technology Sector Performance: The technology sector has been a leading performer, soaring 50%, indicating strong growth in this sector, which could help drive the S&P 500 higher.
Economic Data Surprises: The U.S. economy has been showing positive surprises in economic data throughout 2023, suggesting that the economy is stronger than expected, which could support the market's growth.
META ENTER 408 TP 416 AFTER EARNINGS NASDAQ:META
Growth and Profitability: Bank of America Securities analyst Justin Post maintains a bullish stance on Meta stock, citing potential for growth and profitability1. His analysis anticipates a fourth quarter revenue surpassing the consensus estimates, driven by a 22% year-over-year increase1. This optimistic outlook is fueled by the positive momentum of Reels and advancements in artificial intelligence1.
Monetization of Reels and Messaging: Post believes that Meta is in the early stages of monetizing Reels and messaging, and that ongoing AI and machine learning integrations will enhance user engagement and advertising spend1.
New Products Leveraging AI: The anticipation of new products leveraging Meta’s AI assets, combined with an attractive valuation excluding Metaverse losses, further supports the Buy recommendation1.
Bullish Diagonal Spread: Some investors are going bullish on Meta stock with a diagonal spread2. This strategy involves buying a call option and selling a shorter-term call option against it2.
Advancements in Tech Tools: Meta continually advances its next-gen tech tools, like their AI Code Llama for coding assistance3.
Investment in Metaverse: Meta Platforms is investing billions into the metaverse4. Changes to iOS have stalled Meta’s top line, but Wall Street thinks this will be short-lived
ENTER 408 TP 416 After Earnings
AMAZON ENTER 162 TP 165 AFTER EARNINGS NASDAQ:AMZN
ENTER 162 TP 165 AFTER EARNINGS
Amazon
Revenue Growth: Analysts expect Amazon’s revenues to rise 11.4% YoY in Q4 and hit a record high of $166.2 billion1. The company’s Q3 operating margin of 7.8% was the highest since early 20211.
Profitability: Amazon posted record net profits in Q3, and the metric almost hit a milestone of $10 billion1. Analysts expect Amazon to post per-share earnings of $0.81 in Q4, which is 285% higher than the corresponding quarter last year1.
Cost-cutting Initiatives: Amazon has undertaken several cost-cutting initiatives that have helped to improve its profits, despite slowing revenue growth1.
Bullish Target Price: The 210 price target from Wedbush places the firm among the most bullish for Amazon stock2. The average 12-month target price for AMZN stock from Wall Street analysts is 179, according to FactSet2.
Amazon Web Services (AWS): The top-line growth of Amazon’s enterprise-focused AWS has been gradually falling, and YoY revenue growth slipped to an all-time low of 12% in Q31. However, Amazon has stressed that the segment’s growth is "stabilizing"1.
Consumer Sentiment and Business Spending: During their Q3 earnings call, Amazon said consumers are trading down amid still-high inflation and a challenging macro environment1. It will be crucial to watch for commentary on the business spending environment in 2024
TESLA 206 - 216 - 230 TP
Why Tesla is Poised for a Bull Run
Tesla Inc., the leading electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, has shown remarkable resilience and growth potential, making it a strong candidate for a bull run. Here are some key reasons:
1. Strong Financial Performance
Tesla’s financial performance has been impressive. The company’s revenue reached $81.5 billion in 20221, and its stock price has seen a 5-year total return of 795.71%, placing it in the top 10% of its industry2. Despite a decrease in net income in Q3 20233, Tesla’s overall financial health remains strong.
2. Market Leadership
Tesla continues to lead the EV market. It was the most valuable automotive brand worldwide as of June 20231 and led the battery-electric vehicle market in sales1. Despite increased competition, Tesla’s market share in the U.S. and Canada is growing, heading towards 3%, while in Europe and China, 2% is within range4.
3. Production and Delivery Growth
Tesla’s vehicle deliveries reached a record 1.31 million units in 20221, showing a steady year-over-year growth. The company’s long-term target is to increase electric car sales by an average of 50% year-over-year4.
4. Expansion Plans
Tesla is expanding its manufacturing capacity with new factories in Germany and Texas5. These new facilities will help meet the growing demand for Tesla’s vehicles, potentially driving further growth.
5. Innovative Product Line
Tesla is not resting on its laurels. The company plans to launch new models, including the Cybertruck, Semi, and Roadster6. The introduction of these new vehicles could attract new customers and boost sales.
6. Charging Infrastructure
Tesla’s plans for the world’s largest Supercharger station in California7 indicate the company’s commitment to developing a robust charging infrastructure. This will not only benefit current Tesla owners but also make EVs more appealing to potential buyers.
7. Strategic Market Moves
Tesla is making strategic moves to capture more market share, such as lowering the price of its cars in China and emphasizing online sales8. These strategies could significantly impact future earnings.
In conclusion, Tesla’s strong financial performance, market leadership, production growth, expansion plans, innovative product line, development of charging infrastructure, and strategic market moves position it well for a bull run
SPX 4800 LONG SANTA RALLY UNTIL 2024 Key Factors to Consider:
Economic Indicators: Monitor key economic indicators such as GDP growth, employment data, and inflation. Positive economic data may support the upward movement of the S&P 500, while negative indicators could lead to volatility.
Interest Rates: Changes in interest rates can impact the cost of borrowing and influence investor behavior. Keep an eye on central bank announcements and monetary policy changes.
Corporate Earnings: Earnings season can significantly affect the S&P 500. Track corporate earnings reports for insights into the health of individual companies and the overall market.
Geopolitical Events: Geopolitical developments, such as trade tensions or political instability, can impact market sentiment. Stay informed about global events that could affect the S&P 500.
GOLD LONG UNTIL 2033Throughout history, gold has been recognized as a reliable store of value. It doesn't corrode, tarnish, or decay over time, making it an enduring asset. This stability makes gold an attractive option for preserving wealth across generations.
Hedge Against Inflation:
Gold has often been considered a hedge against inflation. When inflation erodes the purchasing power of fiat currencies, the value of gold tends to rise. Investors often turn to gold as a way to protect their wealth from the negative effects of inflation.
Portfolio Diversification:
Including gold in an investment portfolio can contribute to diversification. Its value tends to move differently than stocks and bonds, which can help reduce overall portfolio risk. Many investors view gold as a "safe haven" asset during times of economic uncertainty.
Global Acceptance:
Gold is universally recognized and accepted as a form of payment or exchange. Its value is understood across cultures and nations, making it a global medium of exchange. This acceptance can contribute to the stability and reliability of a gold-backed currency.
ETF BTC APROVAL LONG 46000 "Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Disruption: Unleashing the Power of Financial Inclusion"
Introduction:
In recent years, the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) has been nothing short of revolutionary in the world of cryptocurrencies. This bullish idea explores the potential of DeFi as a game-changer in the financial industry, bringing about increased financial inclusion, accessibility, and empowerment.
Apple Stretched Too FarNow that's a heck of a stretch.
Price has reached the U-MLH of the white Pitchfork and is nearing the yellow Center-Line.
What's it mean?
White U-MLH = Upper Extreme
Yellow CL = Price got back to balance, in the context of the yellow path/traction.
All this means, that the Air get's very, very thin!
Waiting for a short Signal with a target back to the white CL (Center-Line).
GOOD BTC ENTRY !! SL 59K TP 72KREASONS WHY !!
Market Sentiment and Momentum:
Bitcoin soared in 2023, and experts predict further gains in 2024, potentially reaching $80,000.
Despite long-term optimism, Bitcoin experienced a recent dip.
Technical indicators suggest potential downside, but the market remains in a tug-of-war.
If buyers can push past the $44,700 resistance, a jump to $48,000 is in sight.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Launch:
The launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF in early 2024 is poised to revolutionize the crypto landscape.
This move is expected to attract significant capital from both retail and institutional investors, further fueling Bitcoin’s ascent.
Bitcoin Halving Event:
Scheduled for April or May 2024, the Bitcoin halving event will curtail the yearly supply of new Bitcoin.
This reduction in supply could establish conditions where demand potentially outstrips supply, a fundamental factor in the optimistic price forecast.
Investor Confidence and Accumulation:
Investors are holding on to their BTC with conviction stronger than in 2021.
Relative realized profits show that despite a new all-time high, selling has not been as significant as during the previous cycle.
Consistent accumulation since February 2024 indicates confidence among investors, expecting further price growth.
COIN 260 - 273 AFTER EARNINGS ?Why Coinbase Could Soar to $260 Post-Earnings
Coinbase, the renowned cryptocurrency exchange platform, has been making headlines with its impressive financial performance. As we approach the next earnings release, there’s a palpable buzz around the possibility of the stock price hitting the $260 mark. Here are some compelling reasons why this could become a reality:
Strong Earnings Report: Coinbase recently reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.04 for the quarter, significantly surpassing analysts’ consensus estimates1. This positive surprise is a testament to the company’s robust revenue generation and cost management strategies.
Revenue Growth: The company’s net revenue reached $905 million in the fourth quarter, marking a 45.2% increase from the previous quarter2. This surge in revenue reflects Coinbase’s ability to attract and retain a substantial user base, despite the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market.
Profitability: For the first time since the fourth quarter of 2021, Coinbase reported a net income of $273 million2. This return to profitability could be a strong indicator of the company’s financial health and operational efficiency.
Market Position: With a mission to increase economic freedom worldwide, Coinbase has established itself as a leading platform in the crypto economy3. Its comprehensive suite of services, including trading, staking, and safekeeping, positions it well to capitalize on the growing interest in cryptocurrencies.
Analyst Optimism: Some analysts have set high price targets for Coinbase, with predictions reaching as high as $2764. This optimism is fueled by the company’s consistent performance and the expanding adoption of crypto assets.
Technological Edge: Coinbase is not just a marketplace for crypto transactions; it’s also a technology provider that enables developers to create innovative crypto products3. This dual role could be a key driver in the company’s future growth and stock price appreciation.
Macro Factors: The broader financial market’s sentiment towards cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology can significantly impact Coinbase’s stock. Positive developments in the crypto space often translate into increased trading volumes and higher revenues for exchanges like Coinbase.
Apple Earnings Boost Stock to 182 ? Reasons Why
Apple’s Fiscal 2024 First Quarter Results:
Apple reported its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, which ended on December 30, 2023. Here are the key highlights:
Revenue: The company posted quarterly revenue of $119.6 billion, representing a 2 percent year-over-year increase.
Earnings Per Share (EPS): Quarterly earnings per diluted share reached $2.18, marking a 16 percent year-over-year growth.
Services Revenue: Apple achieved an all-time record in services revenue during this quarter.
Active Devices: The installed base of active Apple devices surpassed 2.2 billion, reaching an all-time high across all products and geographic segments.
Cash Flow and Dividends: Apple generated nearly $40 billion of operating cash flow and returned almost $27 billion to shareholders. The company’s board of directors declared a cash dividend of $0.24 per share of common stock, payable on February 15, 2024.
Long Idea and Earnings Impact:
While the earnings report reflects strong performance, it’s essential to consider the broader market context and analysts’ expectations.
Analysts estimate an average EPS of $1.41 for Apple’s second quarter of 2024, with a range between $1.32 and $1.45.
As an investor, you might want to assess factors such as:
iPhone Sales: The growth in iPhone sales significantly contributed to Apple’s revenue. Monitor iPhone demand trends and product launches.
Services Segment: Services revenue hit a record high. Evaluate the sustainability of this growth.
Margin Expansion: The all-time record EPS resulted from margin expansion. Understand the drivers behind this improvement.
Dividends: Apple’s consistent dividend payments provide income for long-term investors.
Meta Stock Could Reach $520 by July 2024 Earnings ReportNASDAQ:META
Why Meta Stock Could Reach $520 by July 2024 Earnings Report
Meta Platforms, Inc., formerly known as Facebook, has been making significant strides in its business operations, which could potentially drive its stock price to $520 by the time of its July 2024 earnings report. Here are some key reasons:
1. Strong Performance in Q1 2024
Meta reported a robust first quarter in 2024, with revenue soaring 27% to $36.4 billion compared to the same period last year1. Net income also saw a substantial increase of 117% to $12.4 billion. This strong financial performance indicates a healthy growth trajectory for the company.
2. Significant Investment in AI
CEO Mark Zuckerberg has announced plans for significant investment in artificial intelligence2. While this initially caused a 12% slump in the META stock price, it’s a strategic long-term investment that could potentially drive future growth and profitability.
3. Positive Stock Forecasts
Analysts have made positive predictions about Meta’s stock price. For instance, WalletInvestor forecasts a price of $517.58, while TipRanks predicts a price of $547.45. These predictions suggest a potential for the stock price to reach $520.
4. Expected Growth in Q2 2024
Meta’s CFO has projected total revenue for Q2 2024 to be in the range of $36.5-39 billion. This expected growth could further boost investor confidence and drive up the stock price.
5. Long-Term Growth Potential
Meta has demonstrated a long-term growth potential, with its stock price rising 110% from $209.40 to $441.38 in the 12 months leading up to April 25, 2024. This trend suggests that the company has the potential to reach the $520 mark by July 2024.