Analysis
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 23, 2024 EURUSDEUR/USD fluctuated just below 1.09000 on Monday as the new trading week started on a rather weak note. There will be little meaningful data in the first half of the trading week, so traders will have to be on the lookout for key Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data on Wednesday in both the EU and the US.
Things will remain roughly flat on Monday and Tuesday, with markets looking ahead to the start of the week's calendar of meaningful economic data on Wednesday. Tuesday will see the release of average US existing home sales data for June. EUR/USD traders will focus on Wednesday's double block of purchasing managers' index (PMI) data. The EU Manufacturing and Services PMI for July is expected to rise slightly, while the Services PMI for the month is expected to come in at 53.0, up from 52.8 in the previous month.
On Wednesday, the US will release its own PMI data. Forecast models predict that the July US Services PMI will fall to 54.4 from the previous reading of 55.3. Thursday will continue the trend of important data releases from the U.S., particularly the second quarter 2024 annualized gross domestic product (GDP). The trading week will end on Friday with the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which will provide key US inflation data.
Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.09000. If consolidate above it, take Buy positions, on the rebound take Sell positions.
Summary of Bullish Outlook for (WTI) OilSeveral factors are contributing to a bullish outlook for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices in the near future:
1. **Rising Global Demand**: As major economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, industrial and transportation activities are increasing, particularly in Asia with significant contributions from China and India.
2. **Production Cuts**: OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) continue to implement production cuts to stabilize and boost oil prices, preventing significant declines.
3. **Declining Oil Inventories**: Recent reports show a notable decrease in oil inventories in the United States and other countries, indicating higher consumption and demand in the market.
4. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Instability in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and North Africa can lead to supply concerns and price increases.
5. **Investment in Alternative Energies**: While the long-term shift to renewable energy sources may reduce oil demand, short-term transitions and policy changes can cause price volatility and increases.
### Conclusion
Given these factors, the outlook for WTI oil prices is bullish. Investors and analysts should closely monitor these dynamics to make informed decisions in the oil market.
US Dollar Index Technical Forecast: USD Weekly Trade LevelsTechnical Outlook: In remaining month`s US Dollar Technical Forecast we mentioned that DXY was, “buying and selling into confluent guide this week on the 52-week transferring average / 38.2% retracement of the December rally at 103.96-104.26 – searching out a response / feasible rate inflection right here over the following few days.” The index grew to become better two-days later with USD surging greater than 2% off the June lows. The rally faltered at key resistance into the near of the month on the 2023 / 2024 high-week closes (HWC) at 106.10/11- the point of interest is on feasible inflection off this threshold with the long-bias susceptible whilst below.
Initial weekly guide rests with the June low-week reversal near at 104.ninety five sponsored through key guide once more on the 52-week transferring average / 38.2% retracement, now 104.21/26- losses need to be constrained to this threshold for the January uptrend to stay viable. Broader, bullish invalidation regular at 102.87/99- a area outline through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the December rally, the 2016 high-near, and the 2023 January low-week near (LWC).
A topside breach / weekly near above 106.10 might be had to mark uptrend resumption with next goals eyed on the 50% retracement of the 2022 decline / 2023 highs at 107.18/34 and key resistance on the 100% extension of the 2023 advance / 61.8% retracement at 108.38/97- search for a bigger response there IF reached.
BCHUSD is lagging?Looking at the technical picture of BCHUSD we can see that the 400-dollar mark is providing strong resistance. A clearance of that area may attract more buyers into the game.
#bchusd EASYMARKETS:BCHUSD CRYPTO:BCHUSD
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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 22, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) remains weak on Monday, extending its losing streak to a third straight session. Traders are preparing for next week's Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, which may consider an interest rate hike to support the yen. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said normalizing the central bank's monetary policy will help Japan's transition to a growth-oriented economy, according to Nikkei Asia.
Speculative short yen positions, which had risen to their second-highest level, began to shrink after Japan's anticipated yen buying intervention this month surprised the market. According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, yen short positions held by market participants such as hedge funds totaled 151,072 contracts as of Tuesday. This represents a decline of 30,961 contracts from the previous week and is the biggest decline since May 7, when short positions declined by 33,466 contracts, according to another report from Nikkei Asia.
The USD/JPY pair may limit its gains as the U.S. dollar (USD) faces challenges from rising bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September and lingering concerns about the volatility of the U.S. labor market. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting is 91.7%, up from 90.3% a week earlier.
Trading Recommendation: Watch the level of 157.500, and on the rebound we take Sell positions.
NZDUSD - Selloff Acceleration on Neckline BreakThis week's open will be interesting. It'll largely be dependent on the resumption of strength of the US dollar.
The anticipated strengthening of the US dollar is supported over on this NZDUSD pair. Looking at the daily timeframe, the New Zealand dollar has shown a weakening in strength throughout the months of June and early July.
My proposed trade entry and exit targets are based on the 5-period daily ATR of 42.
Take profit: 100 pips (2x~)
Stop loss: 40 pips (1x~)
GBP / USD SELL LIMIT Hi traders, GBP / USD is looking like we are in for a reversal from supply area, my weekly fundamentals are lining up nicely.
Entry 1.30726
Sl 1.31762
Tp 1.23691
This chart material is for educational purposes only / Demo account should be traded only.
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Gold Spot / US DollarHey traders on GOLD we can see that we are approaching supply area, my weekly fundamentals are telling me that we could potentially have a reversal from this area.
Entry 2,414.000
SL 2,458.232
TP 2,175.000
This chart material is for educational purposes only / Demo account should be traded only
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📮 July 21, 2024
EG likely see more downside to come!
Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
More downside?To me seems likely.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
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BTC still looks good to head higher,still upside bias
Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Last week mentioned about its bullishness...and it went up higher..this week at the current 67-68k might face some headwinds. But Clearing this should see more up side to last high at 72-ish!
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
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Euraud needs clearing to go up
Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Needs this current area to clear on daily timeframe before it can head higher,more bias on it to go up though.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
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USD - a potential turn around from current level..Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Could be seeing a reversal here, mixed 'feeling' on USD for now...haha
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
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xauusdall time high once again created 2484, but market crashed and closed below our previous high, and continue fall yesterday. we got strong demand on 2478/2480, look at that area as shown on chart, market can bounce up to retest to supply zone. i am looking for a long from the area.
let me know what you all think. leave a comment.
|| SOLUSD || $200 INCOMING PART 2!The Sol price action has been extremely bullish today, as price has firmly Broken out of the pennant formation as discussed in my previous article. Although this move is bullish, there is still some way to go before we are able to see prices as high as $200, however, it is inevitable. In the following statements I will discuss my bullish perspective.
Double bottom formation: as seen using the Elliot wave indicator I have outlined the structure of a DB formation. This particular formation holds additional bullish sentiment based on the fact that it was formed leading to a tight squeeze of the larger time frame bullish pennant. This scenario generally tends to hold much greater likelihood of bullish movements to come.
My target for the double bottom is set at $180, which seems like an easy target considering market sentiment, however, price is currently resting between two key levels of support and resistance drawn using the fib retracement, 0.50 ($165) and my golden ratio of 0.618 ($175.50) and 0.65 ($178.34).
If we are able to hold strongly above the 165 level and even possibly retrace down to strengthen support at that level, the likelihood of success will increase. expect to see consolidation within this range prior to a breakout. Consolidation would be the healthier alternative to a clean break.
The lowest ill allow price action to move before shifting towards a bearish sentiment would be the fib 0.382 ($154.51) which is the base of the double bottom formation. A great stop loss area would be around the $150-152 range.
Zooming out to the pennant formation. In order to be more confident in the formation, price action would have to retrace wicking near the formations level of support turning to resistance for the breakout to be valid. If my projections are correct the validity of the pennant breakout will result in a move to roughly $226 as discussed in my previous article.
in conclusion watch for any moves between the 165 and 178 levels as that would roughly indicate a strong move in either direction, however, prices as low as 155 are still justifiable and arent bearish yet.
Thank you for reading this far, I hope you were able to get some insightful information to aid your pre-existing market analysis! Remember everything I say is NOT financial advice and should be taken with a grain of salt.
Silver (XAGUSD): From Rise to Expected Downturn—What's Next?Following a rapid rise to $30, silver has seen a swift decline, indicating a completion of the minor Wave (iii) of Wave ((iii)) just above the 461.8% level. We've exceeded this level, so we need to consider potential deviations from ideal models to navigate the market effectively.
We anticipate the downturn to continue and expect to find support between the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. This could set the stage for a rebound above the $30 mark, potentially reaching between $33.78 to a high of $46, although the upper range is quite optimistic.
Trading volume is expected to provide significant support, helping to sustain Wave (iv) within a price range of $26.32 to $24.65.