EURUSD - Daily analysis - Downtrend is over, pay attention to geEURUSD - Daily analysis - Downtrend is over, pay attention to geopolitics.
As the elections in the United States approach, we increasingly begin to pay attention to geopolitics, which affects the currency markets, and especially the dollar, at the expense of technical and fundamental analysis.
In reality, only one working week remains until the all-important elections, where the world decides which way it will go next. Escalation of the two major conflicts into full-scale wars is a completely possible scenario.
This would affect the United States depending on how involved the US would be. A further escalation of the wars could strengthen the dollar as US industry would produce more of the real good - weapons, as opposed to peace, where services are the driving force of the US economy.
We expect new developments in the last days of the campaign, be it new attacks against Trump or escalation in the Middle East, after another batch of missile attacks against Tehran (Iran).
On Monday, we don't really have any important data for the United States or Europe. On Tuesday we expect data on Consumer Confidence, Housing Price Index and JOLTS Job Openings.
Big expectations for fundamental news from the United States are expected in the second half of the week, with the important Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) report at the end.
Expectations for Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) are for a sharp decline in the numbers to weaker jobs data. That is why the dollar stopped the EURUSD downward trend in the last almost month.
Thus, from the great growth of the dollar (EURUSD) from 1.12 at the end of September, to 1.0761 on October 23, 2024. This trend ended in the 43rd week of this year (the last week) to pass into expectations of a decline in the dollar and return to levels above 1.08.
Thus, the downtrend is over and a break below 1.0760 is unlikely until at least Friday.
Use the moment to trade in a neutral trend with a move of 25-40 pips or an uptrend in anticipation of levels above 1.0860.
Let's also mention the BRICS meeting, which leaves the Dollar as the leading world currency in international payments for now, but more and more the Dollar will give way to the power of China, Russia and the rest of the world.
