AMZN H4: 30% CORRECTION PT BEARS 90 USD SHORT IT(SL/TP)(STOCKS)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview?
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-15+ years experience in markets
-Professional chart break downs
-Supply/Demand Zones
-TD9 counts / combo review
-Key S/R levels
-No junk on my charts
-Frequent updates
-Covering FX/crypto/US stocks
-24/7 uptime so constant updates
AMZN H4: 30% CORRECTION PT BEARS 90 USD SHORT IT(SL/TP)(STOCKS)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: AMZN H4 chart review and outlook
::: maxed out already
::: Currently DISTRIBUTION already completed
::: we broke down on heavy volume
::: this is NASTY looking chart
::: BAD for the BULLS / stay out
::: FED rate hikes incoming / FED PUT is GONE
::: short sell rips/rallies in the throwback move
::: expecting backtest of the recent Distribution Range
::: recommended strategy: SHORT IT / STAY OUT
::: up to 40% correction still possible from here
::: fair value for AMZN is 85/95 USD
::: DO NOT BUY/HOLD here this is NOT A DIP
::: This is stock market meltdown in progress
::: be careful / don't get ran over by the FED
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
. N/A
RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
AMZN
Amazon Wyckoff SetupInstitutional Selling presents itself as wyckoff in Amazon. There was institutional selling as short profit taking and then institutional buying as there was anticipation for higher prices. However, there must have been bad news--bearish anticipation as we approached July and October, because we failed to commit outside of the range we were in. This brings us to a new idea.
Higher prices does not mean bullish outcomes.
many retail traders, dumb money, poor traders will enter trade positions into the tops of the range ( trust me, there are a few who enter BIG). thus, all along it was a bull trap, the beginning of the end. As a sidenote, for those who use wyckoff, it is absolutely necessary to confirm phases from other phases. This is how your precision is increased. Phase c is the hardest to confirm. with other confirmations though, you are able to improve your accuracy.
SPY WHATS NEXT??!!It appears the spy has found a landing zone, and may now be in the accumulation phase, Using the Wyckoff Accumulation method, I analyzed what may occur over the next few trading weeks. In the short term I believe SPY is bullish and looking to retrace to the .618 Fib resistance ($390) within a few days and eventually retracing the .786 fib ($400). After that Based on the wyckoff method, it may breakdown, given the marco-economics of the entire market being bearish , with alot of fear and uncertainty amid a recession on the horizon (if were not already), and the feds hawkish aim to control inflation , we may have a sell off that could lead below previous lows, as highlighted in the chart.
Strategy 1: buy $400 calls expiration 8-19-22
Sell: First Target price $390 followed by $400
Startegy 2: If SPY reaches $400, Buy PUT 21 days from expiration ideally strike of $390
Alternatively SPY could break over $400 and continue to rally and possibly reverse to the upside despite macro conditions.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor, I do not advise anyone to buy or sell anything, these are just my own ideas for my own use, trade at your own risk.
AMAZON Generational Bottom and buy opportunityAmazon (AMZN) has been trading within the MA300 (red trend-line) and MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 1W time-frame for more than 2 months. In multi-year terms, this is the equivalent of a bottom formation within the Bullish Channel that started after the bottom of the Dotcom crash in September 2001.
More specifically, the 1W MA300 hasn't been touched since January 2009 (bottom of the housing crisis) and the last time a (Higher) Low was formed within the 0.236 - 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels (Fib Channel applied on the pattern) was within October 2014 - January 2015.
With the 1W RSI rebounding after breaking inside its multi-decade Buy Zone (has done so only another 3 times in 21 years) and the 1W LMACD inevitably about to make a Bullish Cross, this seems like a golden multi-year buy opportunity for Amazon. The Higher High target has been the 0.786 Fibonacci level since late 2018.
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Amazon earnings Hey guys,
I’m really looking forward to amazing earnings!
Little biased here leaning towards the topside although my options spread does include bottom side cover.
I noticed Amazon broke out of the diagonal trend last week which I took some profits on… And retested yesterday with a little bit of a pop.
I’m expecting to see some excitement (next week) before earnings and planning on opening other straddle (earnings week) favouring the downside into early September.
This options spread cost around 9.5 credits and I feel fresh having both ends covered until Aug 19.
AAPL 8HOURS :30% CORRECTION PT BEARS 115USD SHORT IT(SL/TP)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview?
-TOP author on TradingView
-15+ years experience in markets
-Professional chart break downs
-Supply/Demand Zones
-TD9 counts / combo review
-Key S/R levels
-No junk on my charts
-Frequent updates
-Covering FX/crypto/US stocks
-24/7 uptime so constant updates
AAPL 8HOURS :30% CORRECTION PT BEARS 115USD SHORT IT(SL/TP)(STOCKS)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: AAAPL 8HOUR chart review and outlook
::: maxed out already
::: Currently DISTRIBUTION STAGE
::: we broke down on heavy volume
::: this is NASTY looking chart
::: key S/R TL support turn resistance now
::: expect selling from overhead / 50% backtest
::: BAD for the BULLS / stay out
::: FED rate hikes incoming / FED PUT is GONE
::: Record June 2022 CPI print >9%
::: expect aggressive FED rate hikes going forward
::: short sell INTO BOUNCE near 155 USD
::: recommended strategy: SHORT IT / STAY OUT
::: up to 30% correction still possible from here
::: fair value for AAPL is 115/120 USD
::: DO NOT BUY/HOLD here this is NOT A DIP
::: This is stock market meltdown in progress
::: be careful / don't get ran over by the FED
::: maybe we can get a BOUNCE/RALLY later
::: September/October 2022 - until then - STAY OUT!
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
. N/A
RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
NAS100 [US100] Daily Outlook | July 14Long Term Outlook:
Looking at NAS100 Daily TF, the instrument remains bearish until 12949.00 level is broken. I see a trend-line joining 13500, 12949 and 12175 indicating that price may yet see 11163 area with enough volume .
Short Term Outlook:
a. Market is ranging between 11725.42 and 11644.00 (Range 0) and 1HR break and closure above 11725 zone will make price to test 11937 area (Range 1).
b. On the other hand, the break and closure of 1HR price bar below 11644.00, we may yet see a dip down to 11407.97 (range 3) with partials closure at 11533.51 (range 2)
Let me know what you think on the comment section.
NOTE: I trade NAS100 live from Mon-Fri at 8:45 AM EST/ 4:45 PM GST
Join the winning team!
-Kings
AMZN targets the 92-82 pandemic D.bottom low & Vol Profile zone?AMZN has been making an ABC correction since the 188 ATH. The decline was very fast once it failed
to hold the 150 volume profile zone. It has retraced exactly to 101, the 0.854 FIB of the 82 pandemic low to ATH. There was a little bounce but AMZN basically is just hovering around the 2016 TL while consolidating inside my red box without breaking the downtrend line.
LOOKING BEARISH. I think AMZN will target the pandemic low at 82 to make a double bottom ending hew
ABC correction. 82 is also the 0.618 FIB retracement from 14.20 (2015 low) to ATH. 82 is also the 1.618
Fib Extention of the ABC correction, making it a very strong support.
WARNING: There may still be a 20% downside from latest low at 101 as consumer discretionary will be the
first to suffer during an economic downturn.
Not trading advice
AMZN AnalysisPrice is on a downtrend. Seems like a wyckoff accumulation schematic has started with a change in character. However, price has created sell-side liquidity with a bullish POI nearby. I'm expecting a short term bearish move to take the liquidity and tapping into the bullish POI before we see any uptrend.
AMAZON BREAKOUT $AMZNI believe Amazon is ready to break out after being in an Accumulation phase since the beginning of May, The Head and Shoulder Pattern was denied as buyers stepped at the 105-107 price level, and the large volume on June 30 confirms it. My entry Price would be $117, with an exit price of about $120. Alternatively, if price falls Below $112 it would indicate that there is a bigger correction period, and would be a good short opportunity it could easily drop below $100.
I am not a financial advisor, and this is just my personal view.
$AMZN momentum cooling off.$AMZN has been trending up after hitting is lowest of this year since the split and bouncing back up, taking advantage of the market rally. making AMZN a buy for some momentum traders. with the new economic data coming in this week. i expect the market to cool off its rally after its five day bullish streak.
The average move of AMZN per day is about $2.00-3.00 depending on market conditions and news.
here my price target for $AMZN for monday 07/11/22.
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For calls; buy above $116.00 and sell at 117.04 or above
For puts, buy below 114.69 and sell at 13.69 or below
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Welcome to this free technical analysis . ( mostly momentum play )
I am going to explain where I think this stock might possibly go the next day or week play and where I would look for trading opportunities
for day trades or scalp play.
If you have any questions or suggestions on which stocks I should analyze, please leave a comment below.
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would appreciate it if you smashed that LIKE button and maybe consider following my channel.
Tech Reversal In Play: Allow Price Action To PlayoutThe market complexion has changed greatly from "there is no chance of a recession" to "well, maybe there could be a recession" as the economic data continues to deteriorate. Continuing Jobless Claims in the United States increased to 1.375M in the week ending June 25 of 2022 from 1.324M in the previous week. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose by 4K to 235K in the week that ended July 2nd, compared to market expectations of 230K, suggesting labor market conditions could be moderating.
But, I think it is just getting started as many companies are laying off and cancelling employment offers. These activities take time to get into the system and "The Counting Rule" is... they must be actively looking in-order to be counted. So, don't hold your breadth. And keep in mind the Fed will remain hiking rates, while the ECB will eventually need to jump on this wagon.
Speaking of the ECB.
The United States is acting as-if The Federal Reserve Raising Interest Rates solves everything. Government Debt in the United States increased to 30,499,619 Trillion in May from 30,374,155 Trillion in April of 2022.
The US Debt to GDP increased to 137% from 128%. They act as-if there is nothing for the public to worry about; however, many issues have not begun to trickle into the US, as far as we're concerned.
🥶Winter is going to be a huge test for the US and so will the household debt crisis -- not yet discussed in media as companies are trying to figure out how to keep consumers spending (e.g. buy now; pay later).
But, raising rates does not stop the government from spending, nor does it stop the government from issuing more debt. We also have other factors in play such as the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, M2 Money Supply, and WH Executive Orders at play here.
HOWEVER.... The point of this post is the "very tight" interconnection between the US and UK.
Remember it is a global market and just like the global market crash of 1929 we are more connected today than ever before.
👉 The US and UK are at EXTREME levels of government debt and both facing economic collapse scenarios.
😳 If the UK goes down - don't think for a minute that the US cannot go along with it. You have seen my recent post about the US Liquidity Swaps, right? If not, scroll down the news feed and you'll see it.
Nevertheless, through my external analysis of the markets (with annotated charts) there remains a very-strong conviction that the recent lows of the financial markets will be tested and broken. This also takes into account the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet and the fact the Government Debt continues to expand against the GDP.
Downside targets for the SPX and NDX
NDX = T1 9,538; T2 8,200 (current price is at 12,109.05)
SPX T1 3,040; T2 = 2,750 (current price is at 3,902)
I GET IT... Many will not be supportive of the above, nor have many been on my Public Posts within TradingView; however, the same people bashing never seem to return when the outcomes play out. I am not here to say, "see, I told you so" or anything of that nature - as I'm providing my thesis into all the posts I provide with thorough assessments into the global markets and not based on raw emotions.
I really hope this post (and others) have been informative, helpful, or at least worthy enough for your review. I "value your time" and am humbled that you took the time to read, comment, etc. on any of my posts.
Thank you again.
Bill Davis - Technical Trader
AMZN Bearish pattern on 1D chartHey everybody welcome back
Today we’re looking at AMZN on the daily chart and it’s forming a very nice head and shoulders pattern.
I actually got in some puts at the top of the right shoulder and took profits already. I opened a new put position just before the bell.
You can see price was rejected at key levels same as the left shoulder. We’ll see if support will hold at the neckline.
If you look into the smaller time frames you can see the down channel of the right shoulder. Price is hitting the resistance of that down channel and has formed a triangle pattern.
My target is at the neckline and whether it holds or breaks support will determine our next position.
Thanks for tuning in.
Let me know how you feel about this and share your ideas
*This is not advice
$AMZN hourly chartNice recovery here on AMZN over the last few trading days. With a quintuple bottom here, this could poise for a breakout from the down channel especially after the 30%+ decrease in share value. Add to the mix inverted 2 & 10 yr bond rates, commodities dropping, inflation fears, and reduced consumer spending.....My opinion is it continues on a down trend until low $90s.
Amazon | Fundamental Analysis | LONG Down 29% over the year, the Nasdaq Composite Index is in a bear market, so now is potentially a good time to bet on quality companies trading at a low price. Amazon, which just completed its long-awaited stock split, could be a good fit. Here are a few reasons why the e-commerce giant can expect long-term success.
The stock is relatively cheap
A stock split is when a company divides the number of its shares by a predetermined number without changing the market value (the value of all shares outstanding). Although a stock split does not affect fundamentals, it makes the stock cheaper and psychologically more attractive to small investors. Nevertheless, Amazon's June 6 split came at the end of a massive 35% year-over-year decline. So (at least in this case) the stock is now relatively cheaper in both price and valuation.
With a market value of $1.2 trillion, Amazon is trading at just 2.4 times its 12-month earnings. And while that figure is in line with the S&P 500 average of 2.4, it is significantly lower than that of similar Nasdaq companies, which have an average price-to-earnings ratio of 4.5. Amazon's projected price-to-earnings ratio of 55 also looks reasonable, given the potential for significant earnings growth over the long term.
Cloud computing is running at full throttle
So why does Amazon deserve a healthy bottom line? Hint: It's not about its core e-commerce business. While third-party online marketplaces and related services (such as Prime subscriptions) currently form the backbone of Amazon's revenue, its cloud computing business, Amazon Web Services (AWS), looks set to deliver revenue growth for decades to come.
Amazon's first-quarter net sales rose only 7% year over year to $116.4 billion because of weakness in its North American and international e-commerce segments. According to company executives, both geographic segments may have expanded too much during the pandemic boom and now face overstaffing and overcapacity. Amazon's cloud segment, however, is bucking that trend.
AWS revenue jumped 37% to $18.4 billion and operating income rose 57% to $6.5 billion, compared with a loss of $2.8 billion on the company's e-commerce operations. While it's unclear whether Amazon's cloud business will maintain its trajectory, analysts at research firm Redburn are extremely optimistic, predicting that AWS will eventually be worth $3 trillion just because of its advantages in scale, cost, and technology over its competitors.
Other divisions could contribute to the growth
Amazon's success has been based on its ability to move into synergistic industries to drive growth. First, it was an online bookstore, then a one-stop e-commerce marketplace, and finally a diversified technology platform that gets most of its profits from cloud computing. Other types of businesses may be on the line.
According to Business Insider, Amazon has become the third-largest digital advertising company (behind Alphabet's Google and Meta Platforms' Facebook), with $31 billion in ad revenue in 2021. Amazon is also going deeper into streaming directly to the consumer through its $8.5 billion acquisition of MGM Studios. This deal could add thousands of movie and TV series titles to Prime Video's content portfolio, allowing the company to compete with streaming competitors for unique and original content offerings.
Amazon's scale allows it to discover value in industries related to its core business, laying the groundwork for further expansion. Will the company become the next Netflix or Google? Who knows. But given its track record of success in various industries, don't bet against it.
Falling Wedge + Bullish RSI convergence on FAANGAlthough I biased bearish for the past year, the markets are clearly oversold and, furthermore, appear to be showing consolidative pattersn.
FAANG index is also showing bullish consolidation.
We have a falling wedge and a strong bullish RSI convergence.
I believe the recent downturn was also an ABC move.
So, in short, although we are down a lot, we have a very bullish outline despite the bearish macro-narrative.