Why is AMD stock starting to look like a chip bargain?/Lately, everyone seems to have forgotten what an important company Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD ) is. Some traders have dumped AMD stock as if it were toxic. They appreciate the ongoing tension between the US and China. Still, investors shouldn't dismiss Advanced Micro Devices, as the chipmaker's products are still cutting edge and indispensable.
The modern world cannot exist without microprocessors. They control our cars, computers, and phones. There would be no Internet of Things without semiconductors. And Advanced Micro Devices makes some of the most powerful chips on the market, InvestorPlace writes.
So contrarian investors can lean into the volatility and grab Advanced Micro Devices stock before it gets expensive again. Chip market opportunities like this are rare and can be quite lucrative for daring traders.
//Positive catalysts are not included in AMD stock
It's amazing how quickly investors can forget about positive news. As soon as an obvious disaster happens (like the Sino-US tech war), it grabs people's attention and sometimes they panic and sell perfectly good stocks.
///What can you do now?
To a large extent, the tension between the US and China has already affected AMD shares. Surprisingly, the stock has lost half its value this year.
In addition, Advanced Micro Devices continues to threaten its competitors with premium products. Therefore, AMD investors should stay in the trade and consider adding to their positions while the stock is still cheap.
AMD
AMD Buying a break of $69.Advanced Micro Devices - Intraday - We look to Buy a break of 69.21 (stop at 65.39)
Trading within a Corrective Channel formation.
The trend of lower highs is located at 84.00.
A move through bespoke resistance at 69.00 and we look for extended gains.
Selling was posted yesterday but levels close to bespoke support of 63.00 have found buyers.
The trend of lower lows is located at 63.00. Bullish divergence is expected to support prices.
Our profit targets will be 78.78 and 81.78
Resistance: 66.00 / 69.00 / 75.00
Support: 63.00 / 60.00 / 57.00
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AMD: What it takes to reverse?• AMD is clearly bearish, doing lower highs/lows, and there’s no technical evidence it’ll recover or reverse;
• Since it lost the support at $73 (black line), it is heading to the $59 (red line), which is the next support level/target;
• If AMD reacts and performs a positive candlestick in the weekly chart, it might bounce back up to the $73 area, or even to the 21 ema, if the rally is strong enough, however, without bullish reversal structure, we can’t say AMD will reverse any time soon;
• For AMD reverse this bear trend, we must see two things: 1) A bullish pivot point in the daily chart, aka higher high/low (check the daily chart below for more info), and 2) AMD must break the 21 ema in the daily chart as well;
• Either way, at $59 it might get interesting again.
I’ll keep you guys updated on this. Remember to follow me for more analysis like this! Keep in touch.
AMD H2: 35% CORRECTION PT BEARS 60 USD SHORT IT(SL/TP)(STOCKS)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview?
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AMD H2: 35% CORRECTION PT BEARS 60 USD SHORT IT(SL/TP)(STOCKS)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: AMD H2 chart review and outlook
::: maxed out already
::: Currently DISTRIBUTION almost completed
::: we broke down on heavy volume
::: this is NASTY looking chart
::: BAD for the BULLS / stay out
::: FED rate hikes incoming / FED PUT is GONE
::: short sell rips/rallies in the throwback move
::: expecting backtest of the recent Distribution Range
::: recommended strategy: SHORT IT / STAY OUT
::: up to 35% correction still possible from here
::: fair value for Amd is 55/60 USD
::: DO NOT BUY/HOLD here this is NOT A DIP
::: This is stock market meltdown in progress
::: be careful / don't get ran over by the FED
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
. N/A
RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Elliott Wave View: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Looking to ExtenShort term Elliott Wave view on Advanced Micro Devices (ticker: AMD) shows a bearish sequence from 8.5.2022 high calling for further downside. Decline from 8.5.2022 high is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Down from 8.5.2022 high, wave (1) ended at 78.52 and rally in wave (2) ended at 86.05. Wave (3) lower is in progress with internal subdivision as another 5 waves in lesser degree. The 30 minutes chart below shows the internal subdivision of wave (3).
Down from wave (2), wave 1 ended at 74.63 and rally in wave 2 ended at 78.41. Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 73.60 and wave ((ii)) ended at 75.18. Wave ((iii)) decline ended at 67.50 and wave ((iv)) ended at 69.08. Final leg lower wave ((v)) ended at 66.82 which completed wave 3. Corrective rally in wave 4 ended at 68.74 with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Up from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 68.50, wave ((b)) ended at 67.30, and wave ((c)) ended at 68.74. The stock has resumed lower in wave 5 and should see a bit more downside before ending wave 5 of (3). As far as pivot at 78.36 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
SOXX 2D: WHERE ARE SEMI'S HEADED?SOXX, 2D: Taking a look at the SOXX 2D chart I have drawn out a linear regression channel beginning on November 12, 2021 which was about 7 weeks prior to the ATH print at 557.12 on January 3, 2022. The SOXX proceeded to decline approximately 41% from ATH (557.10) down to its recent low at 326.70 on July 1st, 2022 before rallying almost 30% off the floor to 424.78. So, where are we now, and where are we going next?
Linear Regression: The linear regression channel in the chart is divided up by color and is illustrative of 6 standard deviations of potential price action expressing a 6 sigma potential linear range of 435.18 – 279.37 with the high confidence interval range (+-2SD) from 408.93 to 305.61. Our linear mean is currently sitting at 356.78 with a Pearson’s R^2 indicating a high central tendency at 0.894. the linear mean and is currently expressing a potential linear range of 435.51 (+3SD, red) to 308.20 (-2SD, blue). As we can see the recent rally is filling out the upper end of the linear range, clearly pushing deeply into the upper 3rd standard deviation range off the linear mean. Using central tendency as an approximation of trend strength there is a high potential for price to mean revert down to the 356.78 price region.
Fibonacci Retracements: I have left the Fibonacci Retracements up in the background and have also added white lines to mark the significant levels of 0, 0.5, and 1 retracement respectively. Despite the overextended nature of the recent rally, price failed to breach the 0.5 Retrace at 441.91 which would have gone a long way to indicate a high potential for the lows to be in. It is important to note that if price were to breach the 0.5 retrace to the upside it would reduce the probability for lower lows this year but would not eliminate them entirely.
Elliot Wave: It is my position that we are in the 5th wave down from the ATH as illustrated by the yellow EWT count on the chart. Given the somewhat unruly nature of 5th waves and their increased potential for irrational behavior, we will leave some grace with regard to our expected landing zone. It is my prediction that we will bottom out somewhere in the 334-303 range as illustrated in the yellow, square box. This thesis is in confluence with market trends during mid term election years in the month of September, which is that they have a tendency to decline through the month of September and early October before rallying into the late fall/winter after the election.
EMA Envelope: Our EMA envelope (top box), is a trend based EMA indicator based on the last 40 days. The envelope turned bearish(red) with a body close below the 387.12 price point and would turn bullish (green) if price were to bounce back up over the 405.83 price point. Signal is currently residing in the neutral zone as indicated by the yellow in the top box.
VFI (Volume Flow Index): Our volume flow index is a fixed range cumulative indicator based on the last 130 periods, which on a 2day time frame spans the last 260 days. As we can see the green line representing the volume flow is crossing over its moving average to the downside. Please also see that our VFI signal also failed to breach the zero and has not risen above the zero line since the late March rally.
RSI: Our RSI is sourcing data using a hlcc range configuration to add data point density to the measurement and potentially at the sacrifice of a more discerning measurement that might come from using a close only price range configuration. What we see is our RSI signal currently entering the bearish end of its range (<45).
MACD-X: Our MACD indicator is showing our lag differential (12-26) crossing over our 9 period ema to the downside and beginning to print its first few bars of negative trend coming off the recent rally which began at the beginning of July for the SOXX ETF.
SUMMARY: We have moving average trends rolling over to neutral from being recently bullish, volume flows that have been trending upward recently but not at levels supportive of 2021 price levels, an RSI that never hit overbought and has since reverted back to its median and a MACD beginning to indicate the potential for a downward trend to emerge.
What the above summary of indicators appears to be from my perspective is an upward retracement within a larger downward trend, or what is more commonly known as a “bear market rally”. It is my position that price will decline to its linear mean at 356.78 before making a decision of whether to spill further or consolidate in a range bound, downward trending diagonal. Until fundamental headwinds provide a better catalyst for the technicals to improve going into the late fall/early winter it would not be unreasonable to expect further downside volatility.
AMD + The Power Of Confluence - Measured Move & Target LevelsHello Traders, here is my analysis for AMD. - I apologize for the crammed chart, I did the best I could to keep the chart as simple yet detailed as possible. - Onto the analysis...
First off, if you're a new trader, this chart is an example of what the planning process for a swing trade could look like. Of course there are many different strategies, but for me this is the process I go through when planning a trade.
***Before I start with the breakdown, I want to point out how amazing TA can be: If you look at the chart, at the ("4)Bounce/Rally Target Level") at $85.50. That target was taken from finding the average % gain of the prior 3 bounces (36.76%) and projected it from $62 (Probable bottom). Whats so amazing is that the $85.50 level is also key resistance and directly at the descending trendline. - This amount of confluence tells me that there is a high probability that this move could play out in a similar fashion.
Like many other charts, AMD is overdue for a bounce... The questions that need to be answered are:
1) What level do I think it will bounce from?
2) What is the potential profit target?
3) Where do I enter positions?
1) "Where do I think it will bounce from?"
- To answer this, I used technical analysis to come up with the most probable level for a bottom.
- $62 is where I believe AMD is most likely to bounce from.
*As you can see AMD is oversold, this tells me that the sellers are likely becoming exhausted and will eventually stop selling.
*It looks as though AMD may make a measured move (measure the prior high to swing low = 25.63% - Project 25.63% from the swing high at $85.5 = $62)
*The measured move to $62 also happens to be a Gap Fill level which adds confluence to this potential target and adds confidence to this level being a bottom.
2) "What is the potential profit target?"
- The potential profit target for a bounce is $85.50 (This is from being projected off $62)
*I took the averages of the prior three bounces (36.76%) and projected it from the "probable bounce level"
3) "Where do I enter positions?"
- First off, you never want to try and time the bottom for one entry. It's rare that anyone consistently can time bottoms.
- More often than not you'll miss entries this way.
*What you want to do is figure out where you think price will likely bounce from, in this case $62 and enter multiple positions at key support levels on the way down.
*As you can see I've labeled Entries 1-3 on the chart.
*Enter small positions (start with 1% - 2% of your portfolio)
*You never want to be in a position where one trade can wipe you out.
*Entering large positions is not trading, it's gambling. You increase the risk to a point where the probabilities are no longer in your favor.
*Entering small positions ensures stability and longevity as a trader.
That's it, I know it was long but I hope that this was informative.
Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
Big Tech - Head & Shoulder Pattern Galore These four big tech stocks are on thin ice.
A break of these necklines suggests more downside. These levels likely indicate around 11,900 on the Nasdaq as the line in the sand.
Question is, does this lead to capitulation or a longer duration downtrend. TBD...
Nasdaq 11,900 level = red line
Elliott Wave View: AMD Rally Expected to Fail in 3, 7, 11 SwingShort term Elliott Wave view on AMD suggests the decline from 8.5.2022 high is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 8.5.2022 high, wave 1 ended at 90.9 and rally in wave 2 ended at 97.60. The stock resumes lower in wave 3 towards 78.52 and rally in wave 4 ended at 83.80. Stock resumes the final leg lower in wave 5 towards 77.74 which ended wave (A).
Wave (B) rally ended at 86.05 with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Up from wave (A), wave A ended at 80.80, wave B ended at 79.24, and wave C ended at 86.06. The stock has turned lower in wave (C) with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse.
Down from wave (B), wave ((i)) ended at 83.46 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 85.45. Stock resumes lower in wave ((iii)) towards 76.80 and wave ((iv)) ended at 77.37. Final leg lower wave ((v)) ended at 75.87 which completed wave 1 of (C). Wave 2 rally is in progress to correct cycle from 9.12.2022 peak towards 78.67 – 80.03 where sellers can appear for 3 waves pullback at least. As far as pivot at 86.06 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
AMD trade setup idea 15-september-2022AMD is in a downward channel since Jan this year. Partly because of the Semiconductor issue.
The current support level is an important level(75-77) for AMD. It has already tested this level twice.
We would have to wait for the price to show us the direction.
If we cross 78.5, we could take a long position with the first target around 83.5 levels.
If it penetrates the support levels of 75, we could take a short position with a mid term target of 60.
Double Bottom Pattern / AMD $110-120Hey, AMD is forming a good looking double bottom pattern and is primed for a breakout leading up to earnings 10/25 if the stock can get through the $94 range. AMD has strong support at the $70-75 range and has rallied upwards of $100+ when that resistance is tested, which it has been recently. I believe AMD has been beaten down more than the other comparative semi stocks and is due for an upward correction. Obviously this is dependent on the FED rate hike, however the market has priced in a full basis point and I strongly believe we will actually get a .75 considering we haven't had a full point hike done in a very long time. I see Powell playing it safe and not shocking the market, causing the market to react similarly to the July-August transition, which in turn sparked a huge bull rally. With all that being said... AMD is cheap with good call options prices.
AMD to $110-120
AMDDumper nicely since I last posted this chart. Weekly RSI breaking down again on the weekly chart and daily RSI rolling back over. I expect this to continue to dump and come down to the .786 and possibly the .886 which is the COVID high. May build out support at the COVID high around $60 or possibly dump more. I think the former is more likely though. I expect this to follow the rest of the semiconductor market given they have sold off extensively. Time will tell.
NVDA DAILY WOLFE WAVE SETUP OVER THE WEEKENDOn Sept 2, 2022, a daily wolfe wave entry was triggered. The projected target is calculated by extending a linear line between pivot 1 and 4 and projecting the line. This is represented as the green perforated line, as shown in the chart. Since there is no apex associated with the daily wolfe wave, an alternative price objective would be required using gaps, previous support levels or time. If there was an apex formec, then the projected target is defined by identifying the apex location and projecting a vertical line toward the green perforated projection tgt which is extending from left to right. Short term target is near gap at 150 or 21 day ma which is 164. Conservative level would be 155. I hope this helps.