AMD, weeklyLast week, the semiconductor space flourished. AMD rose 14%, surpassing Nvidia's gains. With a painful 2022 behind them, AMD stocks are rebounding on signs that the Federal Reserve will ease its rate hikes and inflation numbers will give the company a boost later this year.
With the much-awaited and cheaper AMD AM5 motherboard about to hit the shelves, sales are expected to rise. No cost-cutting announcements targeting the 15,000+ AMD workforce—yet.
So AMD looks like it could maintain the bullish trend in 2023 if sales rise, at least, for a while.
AMD
AMD -> Patience And Then BoomHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
From a weekly perspective, AMD stock is looking extremely bullish. We just had a bullish ema crossover, a double bottom and also a trendline breakout, everything indicating that we will actually see the continuation towards the upside.
I am now just waiting for a retest of the neckline of the double bottom, before I do expect the next push higher.
On the daily timeframe, same scenario, just waiting for a retest of the previous resistance which is now turned support and then the continuation towards the upside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
AMD: SUPPLY & DEMAND / MARKET MOVER / FORTY-FIVE MADESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MACRO to SEMI-MICRO analysis of AMD's price action. With a large amount of history backing AMD's price action and overall impact on economic factor I would personally consider AMD to be a MARKET MOVER.
POINTS:
1. MACRO Deviation: 13.75, SEMI-MICRO Deviation: 6.8
2. Current Uptrend Channel
3. WATCH 45 MA SINCE THE START OF BEAR MARKET THIS IS THE SECOND TIME THE 45 MA RISES ABOVE THE 200 MA.
4. WIDER UPTREND CHANNEL has developed.
IMPORTANT: IF PRICE ACTION FALLS BELOW 82.50 FURTHER DOWNWARD MOMENTUM CAN THEN BE ON THE WAY.
SCENARIO BEARISH: Current RSI & MACD levels falls in tandem with overbought territory being shown where current price action stands in NEW CHANNEL. Watch for loss of 82.50 if this is the case it is crucial 68.75 does not break because this can signify an opening for a new downtrend channel.
SCENARIO BULLISH: IF 82.50 is lost watch for strong bounce on 75.63 to PRESERVE BULLISH MOMENTUM OF MA's.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:AMD
Stay Away And Come Back To Tesla?At crazy valuations I have to think this way. Two possible price movement with both pointing downward first. Might be good to stay away and watch the price action before blindly going all in. Especially when demand is coming down for products in the US. Thanks for the view...
AMD TRADE IDEASI'm loving how AMD looks across the board! On the Daily, we have the 200 holding as support at 79, and the 10ma holding it as resistance around 82.56. MACD is starting to show weakness on the D with the histogram fading and losing momentum and it looks as if the MACD line is about to cross below he signal line.
I will look to enter towards the downside if we break below 80, with a target of 78, and a break below there to fill the gap down to 75.
if we see strength with AMD, I will look to enter above 82.80, with targets of 84.20, 86, and 88.20
$NVDA is this it ???? Does NVDA have more to offer, or is this all it has? If you weren't aware of the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern that is unfolding on the weekly chart, then let me fill you in. As this week comes to an end, we have reached the halfway mark of the measured move. The question now is, will it play out fully or will this be the end of it?
Thoughts on $AMD moving like this?Any thoughts on $AMD following this bars pattern? Seems to fit too perfectly with my trend lines. Of course the timing could be off slightly but I have $AMD trading sideways/sideways down for a day or two before moving up to a PT1 of $83.16 and a PT2 of $85.55 then moving back down to potentially test ~$75.
AMAT -ter of Time for this Value Industrial Blue ChipAMAT is a strong company, clean financials, legacy business entrenchment (moat) and plenty of upside potential. However buying today is not favorable risk-reward, wait a few months to see if 2023 gives another ideal buying opportunity
Sector: Producer Manufacturing
Industry: Industrial Machinery
Applied Materials, Inc. provides manufacturing equipment, services and software to the semiconductor, display and related industries. It operates through the following segments: Semiconductor Systems, Applied Global Services, and Display & Adjacent Markets. The Semiconductor Systems segment includes semiconductor capital equipment for etch, rapid thermal processing, deposition, chemical mechanical planarization, metrology and inspection, wafer packaging, and ion implantation. The Applied Global Services segment provides solutions to optimize equipment, performance, and productivity. The Display & Adjacent Markets segment offers products for manufacturing liquid crystal displays, organic light-emitting diodes, equipment upgrades, and other display technologies for TVs, monitors, laptops, personal computers, smart phones, and other consumer-oriented devices. The company was founded on November 10, 1967 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, CA.
www.reddit.com
AMD Potential for Bullish Continuation | 10th February 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for AMD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.
Looking for a buy entry at 77.08, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and overlap support is. Stop loss will be at 60.06, where the previous swing low is. Take profit will be at 104.56, where the previous swing high is.
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Week of 2/6: SPY due for Thursday sell off? Inside daily candle is not something you want to see if you're thinking upside. I'm expecting a potential bounce at demand around $406, but I think we could go as low as $400 before the end of this week or sometime next week.
Not entirely sure how to play these but I think consider entering puts under $409.70
Significantly Over Valued Nvidia.. Nvidia along with many other stocks were pumped up over 100% from the recent October low. I believe this is a bull trap and a bear market rally in a really big down trend. I am not biased but I just believe stocks are running up towards a cliff. Right now there are on the edge IMO.
Nvidia Sell SignalNvidia just put in a reversal signal on the Daily chart as it hit major resistance.
This semiconductor has been a powerhouse mover and has single handily been lifting the Semis sector higher.
Now that this stock may show some near term sell pressure we could see the sector as a whole pullback.
The only thing that Im being mindful of when it comes to NVDA is that it has yet to report earnings.
As a technical analyst I'm a bit dissatisfied that Nvidia came so close to filling the technical daily gap at 230.46 but never managed to fill it which leads me to think there may be a possibility it has 1 more gasp at a rally to fill the gap before rolling over.
None the less distribution is being observed in a time when yields and dollar may be spiking again.
Will $AMD be affected by $AAPL missed earnings?Few gaps on the NASDAQ:AMD daily chart, with a hard rejection from the highs.. along with massive put premium on (3-17-23)expiration & (6-16-23)expiration. Call premium stands out at $90 strike (1-19-24)expiration, which could symbolize a retest of highs before a plunge.
NASDAQ:AAPL missed earnings but rallied anyway and there are rumors of a rug pull everyone is talking about.. if $aapl tanks can it affect the whole market?
Comment below let me know what you think..
Reasons
AMD High Rejection
AMD Gaps to the down side
AAPL missed earnings
Rug pull rumors
Call/Put Premium size differences and date choices.
AMD's Strength Fades Quickly, New Lows AheadPrimary Chart: AMD's Downtrend from All-Time Highs (2D Time Frame), Fibonacci Retracements and Projections, Long-Term VWAPs
AMD remains in a severe downtrend at the primary degree.
AMD's price on its most recent rally off the October 13, 2022, low rallied right into trendline resistance and rejected lower. On a linear chart (primary chart above), price pushed through the trendline briefly, setting up a bull trap for those thinking the trend structure might have changed. But price fell back below quickly, a sign of exhaustion and a reinforcement of the very trendline that caused the exhaustion and reversal lower.
Price also failed right at a key 50% retracement (green) of the August 3 to October 13 leg of decline.
AMD broke below a key long-term Fibonacci level (.618 R) at 63. And it fell below its anchored VWAP from 2022 lows.
Now price sits right at a critical multi-year VWAP anchored to 2018 lows (yellow). It looks likely to push below it in the coming days / weeks.
Target 1 lies at prior October 2022 lows (actually, slightly above those prior lows) at $55. This is the most conservative target and mostly likely to be achieved. Target 2.A is $48-$49. Target 2.B is 47.20. Target 3 is $45, shown on Supplementary Chart 1 immediately below. (Each target is a condition precedent to the next lower target. Unless and until a prior target is hit and held on a close, the lower targets are not in effect.)
Current Analysis
AMD remains in a severe downtrend as past analyses have discussed. The history of some key 2022 analyses by SquishTrade is reiterated below in the "Past Analyses" section below. This may help give context to the current analysis.
AMD rallied hard off the mid-October 2022 lows. This rally was mentioned when price was trading down into the mid-October 2022 low. See Supplementary Chart B below (discussing the likelihood of an extremely sharp bear bounce" from a multi-month support zone, and noting that the risk-reward at the time was poor for shorts. Price traded down into the key support zone of $54-$55, and then rallied powerfully into December 2022.
The highs, however, in the $79-$80 range failed right at trendline resistance. On a linear chart (Primary Chart above), price pushed through the down trendline briefly, setting up a bull trap for those thinking the trend structure might have changed. But price fell back below quickly, a sign of exhaustion and a reinforcement of the very trendline that caused the exhaustion and reversal lower.It appears the downtrend at the primary degree has resumed, and even if sharp rallies occur again, as is typical of bear markets, new lows will likely be reached in 2023.
In the process of declining after failing at resistance, AMD cut through a key Fibonacci level of $63. It also broke below a critical anchored VWAP from October 2022 lows.
Price targets are identified in the summary section above. But note that two alternative projections both result in a price target around the $47-$48 range. Both these projections rely on a "measured move" and Fibonacci approach (linear chart). Both these projections are .618 projections of prior major legs of decline. And they end up right near the very long-term VWAP from 2015 (dark blue) which is at $48-$49. Lastly, note that the log chart shown in Supplementary Chart 1 has a key measured-move, 1.00 Fib projection at $45.
Supplementary Chart 1
Past Analyses
AMD's severe downtrend has been discussed in several recent posts in 2022. In May 2022, SquishTrade applied technical analysis to conclude that AMD, which then traded at $94.24, would see more downside in price in the coming weeks and months. A downside projection of $60-$63 was discussed in May 2022, and that was later achieved when price hit $63.34 in September 2022. See the May 2022 post here .
Later, on October 6 2022, SquishTrade provided a more thorough discussion of the technical evidence supporting the continuation of the primary trend downward. See Supplementary Chart A below. Despite substantial rallies in tech stocks, including other chipmakers like NVDA, and large-cap tech stocks like AAPL, nothing has materially changed in the structure. In fact, even if more rallies lie ahead, AMD trend structure will take a lot of work to change.
Supplementary Chart A
When AMD reached a low in mid-October 2022, SquishTrade posted a warning that risk / reward for shorts was poor at the time. Supplementary Chart B. The post noted that AMD's price was near multi-month support and that "an extremely sharp bear bounce could occur at any time. Just look at the prior rallies . . . . Many of these bear rallies rise nearly vertically from the lower line of the channel (called the return line). This is typical of bear rallies. They tend to be some of the strongest rallies that happen in markets, and this bear market has been a fascinating learning experience (even if painful for longer-term investors) as these rallies and declines unfold."
Supplementary Chart B
But despite that major rally that was imminent, nothing had changed with regard to AMD's larger downtrend structure. That remains true now: AMD remains in a severe downtrend that has shown no evidence of structural change.
Another post in October 2022 noted the possibility of the $55 zone of support being significant was also discussed. See Supplementary Chart C. That post, however, was mainly to provide a brief snapshot of AMD's price "at the secular level of trend," which is a multi-year view (longer than a primary trend view which tends to be 9 months to 2 years). The October 30, 2022, post stated: "It's clear that in the intermediate term, bulls need to hold AMD's price above $54-$55 or else the next major level to the downside comes into play." But SquishTrade noted that the level may be retested in the coming weeks to months.
Supplementary Chart C
The time is likely approaching for a retest of that $54-$55 level. The current viewpoint will be discussed below along with reasonable price targets for 2023
AAPL: LAST MAN STANDING / FIB / PREDICTION / MASSIVE CHANNELDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a detailed MACRO analysis of AAPL laid out in its MASSIVE MONTHLY CHANNEL of 180 - 123.75 that has been held since DECEMBER 2020. Out of 8 massive US market movers AAPL was the only one to hold a positive position at market close on Feb 3.
IMPORTANT LIST OF US MARKET MOVERS: AAPLE, COSTCO, NVIDIA, FACEBOOK, ALIBABA, AMAZON, GOOGLE, AMD
POINTS:
1. Deviation of 6.25 DICTATES SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKET PLACEMENT.
2. Dotted orange vertical lines represent a months time.
3. EMA'S: 45 (BLUE), 100 (YELLOW), 200 (RED).
4. Green dotted vertical lines represent top for AAPL top.
5. Optimal Target: 161.25
6. Notice EMA movement where current placement would signify price action has plenty to give to the upside.
RSI: Common Range for RSI to linger between 50 - 70 despite somewhat overbought territory.
MACD: Notice current uptrend of buying to selling pressure and not the similar trajectory and angle. MACD has yet to ride trend before drop occurs which is highlighted by sphere.
SCENARIO #1: In a BULLISH scenario price action lingers around 155 SUPPORT and we see sideways action OR we see a sudden drop in the coming days but bounce 148.75 SUPPORT without losing upward momentum and confirming a continuation of upward momentum and confirming current setup.
SCENARIO #2: In a BEARISH scenario price action 148.75 & continues with strong downward momentum to 145 and beyond that break uptrend and invalidate setup.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:AAPL
Nasdaq's fall in the market compared to S&P was strong in 2022Nasdaq's fall in the market compared to S&P was strong in 2022, so the elasticity of the rise will be strong on the contrary.
In addition, if the rise is raised to individual stocks at this point, there is a risk of timing, but if it is on the index ETF, the unit price is sufficiently stable at this point.