DJIA : The index should retrace after new ATHThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has made a quick and powerful bounce from 17883 to 18873 points (Thursday). It represents a 5.5% increase in only one week. The victory of Donald Trump has apparently raised the idea that the new policies might spark a stronger economic growth.
After that short term progression, we can clearly see that the underlying trend is definitely bullish :
- the previous short term tops have all been passed
- a new all-time high (ATH) has been drawn
- this bounce approximately matches with a short term reversal point, according a cyclical analysis that highlights a 4.5 months periodicity taking place since July 2015.
On that situation, investors should probably wait a short term correction to enter long on the DJIA . Currently, the technical indicators (RSI + Stochastics) are overbought : it is not a reason to sell if you are already long, but it is definitely not the moment to enter long if you were not.
A congestion of the last week upside wave could have an amplitude of 62.8% (Fibo retracement + previous short term top) ; above that level, I will keep a close eye on that index to detect bullish reversal indications inside the correction .
Stay tuned for updates , and feel free to leave your views on comments
