aaai #BABA needs to hold here - results 16thAlibaba still making higher swing lows on the daily. We recently broke out this falling wedge but have come back to retest the breakout. Important level to hold if the bulls want further upside. Results on 16th November could be a catalyst for a larger move
Alibaba
Can Alibaba double from here?The Chinese MNC had displayed its last big impulse move in Oct.2022.In this move(labeled wave 1) the Chinese giant gained 106% between Oct.2022 till Jan.2023.
Between Jan.2023 to May 2023 the stock got into wave 2 correction and corrected 61.8% of the wave 1 rally(the correction was an Elliot wave zigzag).
The stock displayed a bit of strength again on the completion of the Zigzag and managed to get a leading diagonal as the first leg of the bigger Third wave that is now anticipated of the stock.
The stock currently is at 80%retracement of the leading diagonal and 77.77$ level is a crucial support for the stock. The current corrective phase seems to lack one tiny leg to the downside(wave c of Z) and as soon as that is achieved the stock should only look North then from here all the way till 160$ mark.
Note*- The chart is based on personal observations/opinions. Kindly do your own research before taking up any trade.
Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) Has More To Do To GrowIn a perfect world, we'd like to see a company investing more capital into its business and ideally the returns earned from that capital are also increasing. If you see this, it typically means it's a company with a great business model and plenty of profitable reinvestment opportunities. Having said that, from a first glance at Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) we aren't jumping out of our chairs at how returns are trending, but let's have a deeper look.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets -
Current Liabilities) 0.09 = CN¥126b ÷ (CN¥1.8t - CN¥380b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).
Thus, Alibaba Group Holding has an ROCE of 9.0%. On its own, that's a low figure but it's
around the 10% average generated by the Multiline Retail industry.
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
There are better returns on capital out there than what we're seeing at Alibaba Group
Holding. Over the past five years, ROCE has remained relatively flat at around 9.0% and the
business has deployed 121% more capital into its operations. This poor ROCE doesn't inspire
confidence right now, and with the increase in capital employed, it's evident that the
business isn't deploying the funds into high return investments.
Long story short, while Alibaba Group Holding has been reinvesting its capital, the returns
that it's generating haven't increased. Since the stock has declined 44% over the last five
years, investors may not be too optimistic on this trend improving either. In any case, the
stock doesn't have these traits of a multi-bagger discussed above, so if that's what you're
looking for, we think you'd have more luck elsewhere.
ALIBABA: 1W Bullish Cross leading it to 220. Cycle repeating.Alibaba is neutral on the 1W timeframe (RSI = 46.095, MACD = -1.100, ADX = 22.119) but with the RSI on HL since March 2022. Having crossed already over the 1W MA50 and being on the verge of the first 1W MA50-100 Bullish Cross since April 2019 (and the third ever), this bullish divergence is exactly what has historically formed before BABA's two prior bottoms. The 1W MA50-100 Bullish Cross has been the buy entry signal.
It is evident that all bottom patterns are identical in the form of a Triangle. The target from top-to-bottom has been the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. That is our long term target (TP = 220.00).
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Alibaba Express E-Commerce Resurgence Sparks Bullish EnthusiasmAlibaba Express Surging in Bullish Glory
Alibaba Express (BABA) is on a remarkable bullish run as e-commerce roars back to life. The stock's resurgence can be attributed to robust earnings, strong sales growth, and expanded international reach. Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Averages are firmly in the bullish zone, affirming investor optimism. With the global shift toward online shopping and Alibaba's strategic positioning, BABA is well-poised for further gains, igniting enthusiasm among investors tracking this bullish trend.
Unveiling Alibaba's Secrets: A Technical Analysis of Its Future NYSE:BABA
Based on the weekly ElliotWaves analysis , BABA is currently in a corrective wave structure. The corrective wave structure is a complex wave pattern that can take many different forms. However, the most common corrective wave structure is a three-wave ABC pattern.
BABA appears to be in the wave B of the corrective wave structure. Wave B is a retracement of wave A.
We can expect to see BABA continue to move higher in the coming weeks . However, it is important to note that wave B retracements can be sharp and volatile, so we may have a final push on the downside, before the long-term uptrend begins.
Therefore, it is important to be cautious when trading BABA during the wave B retracement and a stronger price confirmation is needed.
BABA's RSI is currently at approx. 50, which is neutral territory. This suggests that BABA is neither overbought nor oversold. However, the RSI is trending higher, which suggests that BABA is likely to continue to move higher in the coming weeks.
BABA's MACD is currently above its signal line, which is a bullish signal. This suggests that BABA is likely to continue to move higher in the coming weeks.
Potential Direction of BABA on a Weekly Timeframe
Based on the ElliotWaves, RSI, MACD, and other technical tactics, BABA is likely to continue to move higher in the coming weeks. However, it is important to note that the market is unpredictable and there is always the possibility of a trend reversal. Therefore, it is important to be cautious when trading BABA and to use a stop-loss order to protect your profits.
I hope this post is helpful.
This analysis represents is based on the information at the date it is posted.
This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice.
You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information.
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Alibaba (BABA) -> This After -80%My name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Alibaba.
For me personally it was quite impressive that Alibaba stock dropped more than 80% after the massive 400% increase from 2015 to 2020.
Recently Alibaba stock retested and already rejected the previous all time low of 2015 and I think that it is just a matter of time until we will see a monthly bullish break of structure.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
Alibaba's Phoenix: Rising from the Ashes of AdversityAlibaba's Phoenix: Rising from the Ashes of Adversity
Alibaba, the e-commerce giant that once soared high in the Chinese business landscape, has recently found itself navigating turbulent waters. The fiscal year ending on March 31, 2023, marked a low point in its financial journey, with revenue growth hitting an all-time low. This downturn sent Alibaba's stock price tumbling to levels not seen in recent memory. But amid the clouds of uncertainty, rays of hope have begun to shine through in the form of promising quarterly results. The question on everyone's mind now is whether the worst is behind Alibaba and whether it's an opportune time to consider investing in its stock.
Alibaba's story serves as a classic tale of a fallen angel. Following its highly anticipated IPO in 2014, the company consistently delivered annual revenue growth rates exceeding 30%. However, the tides turned dramatically over the past couple of years. Alibaba faced a barrage of challenges, including regulatory crackdowns by the Chinese government, a pandemic-induced economic slowdown, and the relentless competition from rising platforms like Pinduoduo and Douying.
The fiscal year that ended in March 2023 bore the brunt of these challenges, with Alibaba's revenue growing by a mere 2%. Even more concerning was the 1% decline in revenue reported by the company's flagship Chinese e-commerce business, traditionally the primary revenue and profit driver.
Such lackluster performance was seen as unacceptable for a company heavily reliant on e-commerce for its financial health.
Thankfully, there are promising signs that Alibaba's performance in fiscal 2023 may have been an aberration. In the most recent quarterly results ending in June 2023, the company witnessed a substantial 14% year-over-year growth in groupwide revenue, accompanied by a remarkable 70% surge in operating income. Notably, all major business divisions, except the cloud division, posted double-digit revenue growth. Even the flagship Chinese e-commerce division managed to achieve a 12% increase in revenue.
While it's early to declare victory, this recent performance suggests that Alibaba's strategic restructuring, involving the division of its empire into six major units, is yielding positive results. All six divisions, in addition to reporting robust revenue growth, have demonstrated significant improvements in profitability. Especially noteworthy are the turnarounds in previously loss-making businesses like Cainiao Logistic and the Digital Media and Entertainment Group in the latest quarter.
However, it's vital to exercise caution and not base all optimism solely on one quarter of promising results. Alibaba's strategic restructuring plan lays a clear path towards a complete recovery, but transformations of this scale take time. It's likely to be several quarters, if not years, before the newly appointed management team steers Alibaba back onto a high-growth trajectory.
Eddie Wu, the recently instated Chairman and CEO, is spearheading a strategic shift with a focus on user satisfaction and harnessing artificial intelligence to drive the business forward. Simultaneously, Daniel Zhang stepped down from his role as chairman and CEO of Alibaba's cloud division. Wu faces the challenge of delivering results in his dual roles as acting chairman and new CEO of the cloud division.
For potential investors, patience is the name of the game. Alibaba's stock is currently trading around $86, only 26% higher than its IPO price in 2014. This, despite the company's revenue surging 15-fold during the same period, from $8.4 billion in 2014 to an impressive $126 billion in 2023.
The recent challenges Alibaba has faced have understandably left investors pessimistic about its future prospects. The stock is trading at a modest valuation, with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.8, significantly below its five-year average of 5.5. In comparison, Pinduoduo boasts a P/S ratio of 6.2.
In light of these factors, Alibaba's valuation seems relatively attractive, especially for a leading technology company that still controls some of China's premier businesses.
So, is Alibaba's stock worth adding to your portfolio?
The answer hinges on several factors. On one hand, early indicators suggest Alibaba is on the path to recovery, evident in its respectable revenue growth in the latest quarter. Additionally, the stock's appealing valuation is an enticing proposition.
However, it's essential to acknowledge that regaining its previous growth momentum will take time. Investing in Alibaba's stock comes with the inherent risks associated with Chinese companies, including political uncertainties.
Only those investors possessing the temperament to manage these additional risks and the patience to wait for the company to execute its latest strategies should consider buying the stock. Others may be best advised to remain on the sidelines.
As Alibaba rises from the ashes of adversity, the path ahead is uncertain, but the potential for resurgence is undeniable. It's a story worth watching closely, as it unfolds in the dynamic landscape of Chinese business.
BABA is a perfect buyStock is cheap. At $88 it's waaay below its value.
Asset Value minus debt divided by a number of shares put BABA somewhere in the $95-110 range. Which means that at $88 it's basically free money.
The only con is VIE structure (Google it yourself) - I have decided to put my trust in VIE structure.
EV/EBITDA is 1.98 which is amazingly low for this type of company. For comparison, Amazon EV/EBITDA is 20.5 at the moment.
I have concluded that risk of VIE structure cancles out the EV/EBITDA discrepancy more than enough.
There is a very high chance that BABA is cheap enough to cancel out every other investment risk.
Do your own research and get to your own conclusions. These are just bullet points and for a small investor this should be a great LONG TERM investment.
Don't expect quick profits, even though there is a high chance of mid to short-term profits with this stock.
BABA, Moving In Major Channel, Potential To Sustain Further!Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this analysis about the current situation within BABA a stock which I detected in my observation and at the moment providing interesting and worthful signals which can prove profitable to keep in the schedule. As one of the major online retail traders beside amazon, it is a big profiteer of the current corona-crisis as the digital economy experiences an overall boom-phase and more and more people buying things online because of the corona-restrictions and beside it is more convenient as to go in a physical shop. These factors can show positive but this is the fundamental side, on the technical side we have also some meaningful indications right now, therefore we are looking at the locally 4-hour timeframe.
As you can see in my chart BABA is moving in a major rising uptrend channel where the price confirmed the 300-EMA which you can see marked in blue in my chart, overall we have some good support at the moment in that level which can provide a basis for further increase minimum on the short scale basis. What is adding to this scenario is that BABA has some gaps higher within the structure which looking for a gap-fill with liquidity providing volume at this price-range. Adding the exceptional support-cluster and the gap-fill-potential we currently have together we have a decent high probability to follow through with some upward-moving price-action similar as you can see it marked in my chart.
After the gap got filled we need to see and examine how the volatility was within the gap-fill, when we saw some good volatility also BABA has the potential to increase further when it confirms the proper support in the structure when this happens and we can stabilize here BABA will firstly test the short-term-resistance which you can see marked in my chart at the 220 level, this will be a major test because it is still important resistance but when BABA succeeds and maybe manages to hold this level there will be the test of the next higher resistance at 230 remainings. Remember that we need to see the proper confirmation before we can look for these levels as targets, firstly it is highly possible that we will fill the gap before we can consider the other targets as reasonable.
In the bigger picture, BABA is moving in an overall upward consolidation range here which can be bullish when we hold the range and gain support further. The fact that BABA is a major online retail trader gives a more bullish edge on the fundamental side of things which can be an indication for price increase, although BABA is not that big like amazon it is profiting from the crisis which needs to keep in mind. This theory is playing together with the technical side therefore it will be interesting how BABA develops further. On the reverse side it is important to hold the support otherwise when we fall below the rising channel it can provide bearish pressure which will drag the stock down, in this case, a good exit scenario as most often is the best decision.
Thanks for watching everybody, support for more market insight and all the best!
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
SasanSeifi 💁♂️BABA 👉1D
Hey there! Let's take a look at what's happening on the daily chart. After some minor fluctuations between the $80 and $90 price ranges, things got exciting! The price broke through the $90 resistance level and soared all the way up to $102. Then, after a small correction and a pullback to the $90 resistance level, it's now trading around $100.
So, what can we expect next? Well, if the $90 price range holds up, we might see the price making its way up to the $108 and $115 supply zones. The possible trend is pretty clear. But, keep your eyes peeled! If the price dips below the support level, we could be in for some more corrections.
Just keep these scenarios in mind as you analyze the market. Remember, things can always change unexpectedly, so stay flexible in your trading approach.❗
Wishing you loads of success in your trading adventures, my friend!✌
❎ (DYOR)...⚠️⚜️
Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!
And if you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you!🙌
Alibaba's Evolution: A Struggle for Restoration and Renewed...Alibaba's Evolution: A Struggle for Restoration and Renewed Confidence
Once hailed as a beacon of promise tied to China's expansive growth prospects, Alibaba finds itself navigating a complex narrative. The owner of revered e-commerce platforms Taobao and Tmall, as well as the behemoth Alibaba Cloud, the company has weathered a transformation from Wall Street's darling to a thorny challenge for investors in recent years. A series of setbacks, including the Ant Group's IPO cancellation and faltering growth, have propelled Alibaba's stock into a downward spiral, plummeting by more than 70% from its zenith at $317 per share.
Responding to this predicament, Alibaba is orchestrating a significant corporate overhaul, fragmenting its structure into six distinct units. Despite these steps, further actions are necessary to course-correct the beleaguered ship. This article explores two vital domains Alibaba must address to regain investor confidence.
Emerging as an e-commerce powerhouse, Alibaba's growth trajectory has expanded both vertically and horizontally, encompassing sectors like logistics, fintech, entertainment, cloud computing, and more. While the diversified business model garners applause, e-commerce remains the unequivocal core, accounting for a substantial 67% of the company's revenue in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2023. Notably, this segment contributed to the entirety of Alibaba's profits during that period, as other segments reported losses.
Yet, Alibaba's foundation remains predominantly anchored in Chinese e-commerce, presenting a challenge. The flagship endeavor led by Tmall and Taobao faced a 1% revenue dip over the last fiscal year. While pandemic-related lockdowns contributed, the rise of contenders like Pinduoduo and Douyin has intensified pressure. Alibaba must undertake a transformative journey to adapt before this challenge escalates.
In response, Alibaba's reorganization into six units seeks to empower each division with dedicated management, enhancing operational efficiency, market adaptability, decision-making speed, and incentive structures. This endeavor aims to resurrect the entrepreneurial spirit crucial for revitalization.
Investors must grant several quarters to assess the efficacy of these newly established teams. The e-commerce segment must rekindle growth momentum, ideally surpassing industry rates. As Alibaba realigns itself, the path forward holds intrigue as it strives to recapture its competitive edge.
Beyond operational excellence, capital allocation emerges as a pivotal arena requiring attention. Historically, Alibaba directed profits from its e-commerce pillar into high-growth domains like cloud computing and logistics. With autonomous subsidiaries, units now secure funding independently, easing e-commerce's burden.
Alibaba's surplus cash flow beckons strategic redirection to enhance e-commerce and shareholder value. This includes judicious investment in marketing and research, amplifying competitiveness. Share repurchases and dividend policies also warrant consideration, given historically low stock valuations. Fresh ventures are plausible, but discernment is crucial.
Alibaba stands poised to create shareholder value through astute capital allocation. This realm warrants vigilant investor scrutiny, given its profound impact.
Once a cornerstone of China's tech landscape, Alibaba's journey has been marred by errors and external challenges that eroded investor trust. Yet, hope gleams. Alibaba's premier domains remain potent. Restoration lies in honing these for enduring value. Through corporate restructuring, the company embarks on rejuvenation. Patience is vital, awaiting the fruits of this turnaround.
With renewed operations and strategic capital use, Alibaba's renaissance nears. The narrative could return to its former glory, focusing on nurturing its remarkable franchises.
ALIBABA first Golden Cross in 6 months. Buy signal.Alibaba (BABA) is completing today the first Golden Cross formation since January 23. This is a bullish medium-term pattern and along with the 1D RSI bullish trend on Higher Lows, it will most likely end with a Higher High on a 6 month basis.
As you see, the price recently broke above a Channel Up pattern, so we expect an aggressive rally to the Lower Highs trend-line, similar to those rises of January 2023 and June - July 2022. Our target is 116.00, even though there is potential for a direct hit within the 1 Year Resistance Zone.
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$BABA Inverse Head & ShoulderNYSE:BABA Inverse Head & Shoulder. The inverse head and shoulders pattern is a bullish reversal pattern that is often seen in stocks that have been in a downtrend. The pattern is characterized by three troughs, with the middle trough being lower than the other two. The neckline is the horizontal line that connects the bottoms of the two outer troughs.
If the price of BABA breaks above the neckline, it would be a signal that the downtrend is over and that the stock is likely to move higher. The target price for the breakout would be the distance between the neckline and the head of the pattern.
Of course, no pattern is guaranteed, and there is always the possibility that BABA could break down below the neckline instead. However, the inverse head and shoulders pattern is a bullish signal that is worth watching for.
Here's Why $BABA Could Skyrocket Even Higher!Analysis:
Looking at the dataset, it's evident that both the Macro PVVM and Micro PVVM scores for Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) show an overall increasing trend over the examined period. The Macro PVVM went from a score of around 0.58 to approximately 54.24, demonstrating a significant uptrend. The Micro PVVM also moved from -53.71 to 40.23, showing a reversal from a bearish to a bullish momentum in the short term.
The close price of NYSE:BABA has been generally increasing along with the PVVM scores, indicating that the bullish momentum has been affecting the stock's price positively.
Key Takeaways:
There's an established bullish momentum, indicated by the upward trend in both the Macro and Micro PVVM.
The Micro PVVM has crossed from negative to positive, suggesting that the bearish short-term movement seen at the beginning of the period has turned into a bullish one.
The most recent close price of $98.33 is the highest over this period, further confirming the bullish sentiment.
Trading Strategy:
Given the bullish trend and movement, it would be a good strategy to maintain a long position on Alibaba. However, traders should keep an eye on the PVVM scores. If there's a sudden drop, especially in the Micro PVVM, it could indicate a reversal in the short-term movement.
Since both Macro and Micro PVVM are in positive territory and increasing, traders should look for opportunities to enter long positions on pullbacks, as the overall trend is upwards. Keep in mind the rule that the best long entries are when both PVVMs are low and start showing signs of strengthening.
ALIBABA broke above the yearly Resistance. Buy signal.Alibaba broke on Friday above the Falling Resistance that was initiated on January 26th.
That was also a crossing over the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
Technically that is a strong double bullish break out for a potential long term bullish reversal.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 105.00 (Resistance 2 and Fibonacci 0.618) and 120.00 (Resistance 3 and Fibonacci 1.000).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) has been on a Rising Support since March 10th. A Bullish Divergence and clear sign of a long term bullish reversal.
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BABA with a Bullish Breakout on the Daily trendBABA has recently confirmed a bullish breakout on the daily trend, indicating a potential continuation of the upward momentum. The formation of a triple bottom pattern further reinforces the bullish outlook. As long as the support level holds, we can expect the price to rally towards the recent highs around $105. Traders should monitor the price action for further confirmation and adjust their strategies accordingly. It's important to stay informed about the latest market conditions and news related to BABA for a well-rounded analysis.
Alibaba:From Promise to Setback and The Potential for ReboundAlibaba, once considered a promising investment tied to China's growth prospects, has faced significant setbacks in the past five years. Despite its declining stock price, the company has continued to expand its business, albeit at a slower pace. However, there are reasons behind Alibaba's decline in appeal, and it's worth exploring the likelihood of a stock rebound in the coming years.
During the past five years, Alibaba achieved impressive growth in annual revenue, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% from fiscal 2018 to 2023. However, recent data indicates a concerning deceleration in growth over the past two years.
This slowdown can be attributed to two primary challenges. Firstly, Alibaba faced setbacks when China's antitrust regulators imposed a historic fine in 2021, leading to tighter restrictions on the e-commerce division. These restrictions weakened Alibaba's competitive position against rivals in the fiercely competitive online retail market.
Secondly, the economic slowdown during the pandemic, along with intermittent lockdowns, had a broad impact on consumer spending across Alibaba's platforms and hindered enterprise spending on its cloud infrastructure services.
To address these challenges, Alibaba made significant strategic moves to streamline its operations. The company restructured its business into six distinct groups, giving each group more autonomy to seek external funding or conduct IPOs. Alibaba plans to spin off its Cloud Intelligence group through an IPO and explore potential IPOs for its logistics and global digital commerce divisions.
These spin-off companies can generate fresh capital, improve overall margins, and expand more rapidly without being closely managed by Alibaba. If successful, they could lead to increased net profits and help alleviate concerns from antitrust regulators.
Looking ahead, the spin-offs initiated by Alibaba have the potential to attract significant investor attention. Alongside this, Alibaba's reported growth is expected to stabilize as the macroeconomic environment improves and its core markets expand. Projections show growth potential in China's e-commerce and cloud computing services markets.
Analysts forecast moderate growth for Alibaba's revenue and net income, driven by continued spin-offs and spending discipline. If Alibaba meets these expectations and maintains a modest growth rate, it could achieve substantial revenue and net income by fiscal 2028.
Considering these factors, even if Alibaba's valuations remain steady, its stock could potentially double in the next few years. However, the emergence of a new bull market and the resolution of delisting concerns could further elevate its valuations. In simple terms, Alibaba's stock could triple or exceed that growth by fiscal 2028.
BABA is going much Higher based on Wyckoff accumulation count This idea is based on Wyckoff's accumulation schematic. Based on the recent price action, BABA has shown sign of strength when it jumped out of the creek and retested its upper limit 2 times now.
Based on the accumulation count, BABA should move pretty fast to 430-450 once it breaks out of the upper range limit of the accumulation range.
All info is on the chart.
Good luck
Alibaba to breakdown?Alibaba - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 79.38 (stop at 84.38)
The primary trend remains bullish.
The stock is currently underperforming in its sector.
This is currently an actively traded stock.
Daily signals are bearish.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
79.48 has been pivotal.
A break of the recent low at 79.48 should result in a further move lower.
Our profit targets will be 67.38 and 65.38
Resistance: 85.00 / 88.50 / 91.43
Support: 82.70 / 79.48 / 75.00
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