Alibaba
$BABA, $AMZN 's dirty little secret.NYSE:BABA
Anyone paying attention to $BABA?
Are you considering buying into the $AMZN stock split?
Are you concerned about chinese stock delisting?
Geopolitics, Index fund Managers, lobbying, market reset by the FED's and technical analysis (the psychology of the investor) have a lot to do with what happens in the future.
Did you know that as of 2021, China-based sellers represented 75 percent of new sellers on Amazon, according to a report by Marketplace Pulse. This marks a significant increase from 47 percent in the previous year.
This large segment of China-based sellers on Amazon has not yet impacted the gross merchandise volume (GMV) market share. Domestic sellers are responsible for most of the total sales.
Three-quarters of new sellers in the top four core Amazon markets — U.S., UK, Germany, and Japan — are based in China. That percentage is the calculated average of the four marketplaces, according to Marketplace Pulse analysis of more than 40,000 sellers that joined those Amazon marketplaces so far in 2021.
So what does this mean for the future of $AMZN prices?
Simply, if BABA gets delisted; the revenge from the Chinese government will be major; you think logistical issues, trucker shortages, and inflation is affecting prices? You've not seen nothing yet!
My assumption is that the market reset is going as planned with major impact on Chinese stocks to limit the momentum of Chinese GDP (#2) against the U.S. (#1).
The U.S. needs China just as much China needs the U.S. so the lobbying power of $AMZN and the rest will ensure the continuity of Chinese presence in the U.S. (those max profits are critically needed).
Oooh before I forget, technical analysis:
Daily Chart
EMA (Exponential Moving Average): 20/50/100/200 EMA (everyone and their mama) are pointing downwards ! This spells bad news, especially going into May (a slow market month)
TTM Squeeze: Squeezing to the bottom; momentum to the downside for both $AMZN and $BABA.
Fib Levels: $BABA - with the current red candle crossing below the .618, there is very high probability that the price action will aim for the 1 fib. This will take us to the previous support and low of $73.28 or a possibility of going below that.
Candle Stick: Summary of last 5 candles equate to a bearish movement. The last pairs look like a Bearish engulfing
Pattern: Down by the sea ... off to the Falling Wedge for both $BABA and $AMZN
News: Do I need to add more to the above? Well, with $NFLX taking a whooping on recent price increase policy, do you think $AMZN may face the same fate?
History: The last 2 earnings have resulted in a downward trend even with great numbers. Everyone and their mama is talking about this stock...
Company is worth Trillions and the consumer base love them... hmm... I really need to be buying the bottom.
BABA the Daily Journal sold 50% of its stake in itIf you haven`t sold on growth concerns:
Then you should know that after averaging down multiple times, Daily Journal Corp, where investor Charlie Munger served as chairman until very recently, cut its stake by roughly 50%.
My expectation is to see a double bottom in BABA this year.
Bullish on BABA"Be greedy when others are fearful"
BABA is 70% off its highs from a year and a half ago and many investors are jaded. Looking at the technicals however, I'm seeing plenty of reasons to consider BABA a great opportunity to DCA into a long position here. The relentless overhead resistance and downward momentum appear to be dissipating as sellers run out of steam. Value buyers appear to be stepping in and the charts are showing increasing support. In addition, I'm seeing bullish divergence on the daily chart and a possible signal of a shift of momentum. All these signs lead me to think BABA is preparing to turn the corner. I'm not ready to call the bottom on BABA, but I'm interested in accumulating.
Happy Trading
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These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing.
I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly.
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ALI BABA : SELL OR BUY ??The last time that the price was around 100 $ was at the IPO (2014) and then between AUG 2016- JAN 2017
TOTALL ASSET :
IPO(2014) : 41.27 B
2016: 73.55 B
2017: 114.01 B
2020: 257.86 B
2021 :276.25 B (UNTIL Q3)
GROSS PROFIT :
IPO(2014) : 8.12 B
2016: 14.05 B
2017: 20.66 B
2020: 42.09 B
2021: Q1 + Q2 +Q3 =37.25 + Q4(9.03)(IF WE CONSIDER SAME AZ Q4 OF 2020) = 46.28 B
P/E FORWARD = 7.40 !!!
P/S =2.12 !!!
P/CASH FLOW = 0.10
P/B = 1.79
RETURN ON ASSET = 3.86%
QUICK RATIO = 1.65
DEBT / ASSET RATIO = .08
All these items show the prices are not permanent.
Game over... back to the rescue.China opens the books of companies to the US and important investors are ready to bet on Chinese bonds that have lost more in the last year and among these can not miss Alibaba.
LONG interest from institutional, professional and short-term investors
this is what you can see from the Miracle Viewer indicator
This time we are all betting on BABA and I also opened my positions waiting for a price increase.
👽 ALIBABA. ACCUMULATION HAS BEGUN. NOT SO FAST!Hello everyone. Today Lets take a look at Alibaba 1W Chart. What do we see?
1. First of all, currently we are in descending channel , there is no rally that changes the behaviour (from bearish to bullish ) yet. Thats a fact.
2. Recently we saw good 1w bar with big massive spread and climactic volume . What does it mean? This might be a zone where Composite Operators will be accumulating the stock. Also that doesnt mean that we will see bigger prices immiediately because of climactic action and lack of deep tests of this bar - points of fear (a lot of weak hands heared on news, from different public traders that "we have found bottom, lets buy that!")
3. Currently we are waiting for some tests of this bar. No one can tell you where we will found 100% stopping action and support of next accumulation (at which level), we just might predict that. So our first interesting zone to stop downmove is 104-105$ (0.382 fibonacci zone), second is 99-100% (0.5 fibonacci zone), third is 94-95 (0.618 zone). But we should pay more attention to lower timeframes in order to claim the end of local bearish reaction (1d, 4h timeframes). If we see shortening of thrust on 1d chart, lack of supply, big demand tales and good bullish bar with big spread on low demand volume (not climactic) after those this is a right time to try long! and start accumulating with CO in potential phase B. But accumulation might be very long! So you must not be aggessive and divide your pose into parts and have multiple POE to reduce your risk.
Thank you for reading, write your thoughts down in comment section below.
YINN LongTechnical analysis on the YINN, it is a Chinese bullish 3X leveraged ETF with the largest holdings including Tencent and Alibaba. I am a huge fan of Chinese tech stocks, the Chinese market is massive and constantly growing as Chinese regulations becomes more lose (which if they want to compete with the United States it will) then Chinese stocks will start reaching their appropriate stock prices. My estimate in the Yinn hits 9 a share by mid May.
ALIBABA : WATCHafter reaching the support level below , the price bounced back upwards with a strong momentum, but in the last couple of days that perfomance slowd down and a warning appeard in a previous candle .
best move is to wait and hold the position if you're a buyer untill a red candle appears , if not wait until the price reaches the resistance level and see if itll break it or not .
BABA stock long termBABA stock has been on a tear lately together with most Chinese tech sector that has rebounded. It seems to have broken the downward resistance level but it seems to be approaching an overbought level. I believe it will retreat at least slightly touching again the resistance level at around 107USD. I am long term bull for the stock and would love seeing the stock consolidating between 107 and 120 and hopefully turning up testing the 200MA.
Alibaba Long term AnalysisWe can see a pretty hurt #BABA stock due to all fear in the markets with China and the war, for long-term traders, this could represent a good opportunity. I try to make the chart as clear as possible, remember that this is for long-term trades, right now there´s a lot of volatility in the markets. With that scope in mind and because of volatility, the SL is extended to -34%, so manage your entry position size well. In their fundamentals, BABA is undervalued.
Remembering that resistance areas become support areas when the chart moves positive, I recommend moving your SL with these new support levels and managing your exits as comfortably as you need them to be.
BABA looking to drop again. BABAWe have already had two successful and juicy shorts out of this collapsing company. Thank you, Jack Ma. And again, not looking confident at all for a reversal of any kind on AliBaba in the near and foreseeable future. Even if this is a potentially viable company, the stock price is rarely ever tied to this. Examples are ample in today's market.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
ALIBABA - Long PositionAlibaba (BABA) China-based stocks listed in the U.S. are staging strong rallies in premarket trading, helped by state media reports that the Chinese government will take steps to support the markets and the economy, and that the U.S. and China are progressing toward an agreement on regulatory requirements for those companies. Alibaba up 19.2%