Airlines
Bearish Doubling Down For Delta AirlinesOn April 26, 2017, Delta Airlines ( DAL ) crossed below its 150 day moving average (DMA). Historically this has occurred 41 times and the stock drops a minimum of 0.194%. It has a median loss of 6.485 % and maximum loss of 40.441% over the next 15 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 52.8562. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock recently moved up into a more neutral movement state.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -17.9842. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0188 and the negative is at 0.8566. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving up, but the positive is dropping and negative is rising after today's session.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 71.7501 and D value is 61.2473. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is approaching overbought territory and should cycle down soon.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to continue heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 3.82% over the next 15 trading days.
Just two days prior to our current downward DMA cross, Delta crossed over its 150 DMA. When the downward cross occurs a few trading days after an upward cross, the stock always drops. Since the end of the financial crisis in 2009 this has occurred in January 2011, October 2011, December 2011 (3 times), October 2012 (4 times), November 2012, July 2015, and April 2016. The stock dropped 6.369%, 12.993%, 5.483%, 3.879%, 2.317%, 3.535%, 4.814%, 5.100%, 5.572%, 3.560%, 1.261%, and 13.494% respectively. The median drop of these 12 occasions is 4.957%.
ALK Double H&S PatternAfter forming a perfect Head & Shoulders pattern, a larger Head & Shoulders is taking shape.
The already completed H&S pattern is pretty much a picture perfect formation.
- Left shoulder shows strong volume on the upside and lower volume on down days
- The head shows increased volume on positive days at the beginning, but volume fades as ALK makes higher highs. THIS IS A TELL-TALE SIGN WE REACHED A TOP
- As we moved lower, ALK had a false breakout on low volume as the stock made its way back above the neckline the same day.
- As the right shoulder formed, volume was low on up days and increasing on down days
- The final breakout confirmed on high volume. Another big indicator is the strong red candlestick that closed at the lows of the day (shaved bottom).
After falling almost $6 from the first H&S neckline, the stock hit a trend line that has now been hit 4 times. The stock also hit what could be a neckline to another head & shoulders. If you look at the chart and the volume, almost the same comments can be applied to the larger (blue curves) H&S pattern. Considering the stock looks to be quite oversold, and given the 2 aforementioned resistance points, I believe the stock will retrace along its trend line up to the first neckline at $92. This is typical after a H&S is completed (red curves) as the bulls try to salvage something after being stopped out.
Look for lower than average volume going up and high volume on down days. If It does retrace to the neckline, there will be very little room until a down day will break that trend line (especially with earnings looming on 4/26), in which case the stock will go much much lower.
DAL: Buy on good earningsFAILED BREAKOUT OF HISTORICAL TOP MEETS MOVING-AVERAGE SUPPORT
DAL is currently trading 15% below historical high, after it repeatedly failed to break out since late last year, on what looks like a quadruple-top at the historical high. However, the corrective move seems to have met a decent support at the MA100, $44 level. I would venture to say that the stock has found a temporary bottom and that the short-term picture looks positive.
SUPPORTIVE FUNDAMENTALS
In addition to the improving technical picture, the news flow from the industry has been supportive, as airlines have been publishing ever improving yield/occupancy numbers. As a confirmation, the DAL earnings have just come out and the stock is indicated up some 3% pre-market on the news.
COMPELLING RISK-REWARD
Strategy: Plain vanilla BUY at the market
Target: $50/share then $52/share
Stop-loss: $44/share
Minimum R/R: 1.72x
Alternatively sell a put at the stop-loss ($44) to finance a slightly OTM call.
Short Put Spread - AALTrade Setup:
-1 AAL May 19 36/41 Short Put Spread @ $1.39
DTE: 57
Max Win: $139
Max Loss: $361 (will manage 2x credit, so $280)
Breakeven: $39.61
Trade Management: 50% profit; 2x credit received as max loss; Will roll out if on the dance floor.
Green is profit zone and up; Vertical black bar is expiration.
Airline CooloffHistorically when the vortex negative hits this level the stock drops at least 1.21% with an average drop around 13.57%. A drop around this average is possible, but DAL has not been trading at large enough daily spreads to make this likely in the next few weeks. A more conservative drop would be near the 47.56 mark which has been a pseudo support/resistance level.
BOEING (BA) watching for the breakoutBoeing is currently in a r(0.976) linear regression started in September. The stock price shortly tumbled after the Cancel the order! tweet from Donald Trump and created a strong support level at ~150.5. I'm waiting for the price to breakout the red breakout line to enter a LONG position.
---
"Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas" - Paul Samuelson
Boeing already looking overstretched pre-Trump announcementEyes are on Boeing at the moment, following President-Elect Trump's remarks on the possible future of Air Force One.
It is worth noting that Boeing is already looking overstretched at current levels - momentum studies are overbought and prices are now trading in the historic distribution top from 2015-2016 - and risk/reward is turning lower.
Could Trump's remarks provide the catalyst for the corrective pullback?
US Airlines breaking higher - Tweet asking if it's BuffetA short Tweet asked if Warren Buffet is buying the Airlines.
Regardless, it seems to gathering upside momentum.
A break above the USD277~ range highs is needed to shake out the shorts.
LUV: Great accumulation at key level$LUV is showing a great accumulation pattern, right above an older 'Key earnings support' level.
We can long at market open risking a drop to 35.40, and aiming for a retest of 39.97 in the intermediate term.
This is a good way of leveraging a potential retracement in crude oil to be seen soon, possibly after the next OPEC meeting shows leaders fail to reach an agreement, or if they simply 'freeze' production at record levels (which is the same as sitting on their hands, and maintaining the status quo).
Feel free to comment. Also, if interested in learning more about my private tuition and/or trading signals service, message me privately.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.