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Agricultural Commodities

WATCHING $SBUX - Key Levels and Analysis WATCHING $SBUX - Key Levels and Analysis Understaffed, higher cost of operations, higher cost off coffee, and unstocked shelves will likely chip away at revenue. I don’t normally look at fundamentals… I’m strictly technical. This is just what I am physically seeing every time I walk into a Starbucks. Analysis is technical only, but it seems to be supported but what I’m seeing in real time. Starbucks would be an excellent opportunity around 100. —————— I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence. If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can. Have fun, y’all!! (\_/) ( •_•) / >🚀
NASDAQ:SBUXShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
2
Soybean CrushSoy Crush: Crush demand remains very strong currently at 1.66. Strength in Crush margins can come on the backside of strong moves lower in beans. Currently crush is high due to strong demand for oil and a weaker bean market. If Bean oil holds elevated levels and Meal can find some strength, Soybeans should find a lift higher. Soybeans: Price has retreated well off spring/summer highs. Finding support with higher crush margins Soybean Meal: Over supply with the excess crush causing a retreat in price. Will lower price meal spur demand, or is Meal the first one lower with Beans and Oil to follow? Soy Oil: Fundamentals in the domestic and world market driving the Oil market. Long term outlook remains elevated on Biofuel needs. A correction in the Oil market will drive the Crush market, and would eventually drive the Soybean Market lower. **Watch the Soybean Oil market carefully. Also any negative action or talks out of Washington and the biofuels industry**
S
by mtb1980
Soybeans US Dollar: Usually trends lower into major China export programs. Trends higher after export program concludes. Some resistance ahead. A move lower would help grain exports…. COT: Commercial Net (green) is tipping lower, about neutral. Selling by farmer to commercial met by equal buying of end users. Commercial Shorts (yellow) recently adding to shorts, but pace is far behind last year. Last year the farmer sold out at harvest, leaving the Cooperatives heavily short and the funds long. Leaving the end users open to upside risk…. Commercial Longs have been adding, locking in the high crush margins. Funds are exiting their longs **These indicators lag behind change in trends. Currently using this data as an observation as it is too early to give a signal if low is in. A lower move nearby doesn’t appear to have staying power for a complete season….
CBOT:ZS1!
by mtb1980
Sugar (Sugar No. 11 - May 2022) set to continue the trendI firmly believe raw sugar futures are set to continue their upward trend seen for months now. While they have consolidated for a time and recently dipped below temporary support, which could be mistaken for a trend breakout, I believe we are simply seeing a sell-off as a reaction to the futures having floated highly above the trendline for a long time. As pointed out on the chart, the recent sell-off is of a magnitude similar to earlier sell-offs, and furthermore, we are resting firmly on the trendline. However, the risk of a trend breakout is significant and I recommend a tight SL at 18.45. On the other hand, should my hypothesis prove right, enjoy the ride and take profits at your own discretion.
ICEUS:SBK2022Long
by MoeTrader01
Continuous CornA few things for direction on Corn after report. Some bias for more upside longer term, but the market has been saying not so fast lately. US Dollar: Usually trends lower into major China export programs (more so for beans than corn as China usually does not buy much corn) Trends higher after export program concludes. Some resistance ahead. A move lower would help grain exports…. COT: Commercial Net is tipping lower. Natural selling by farmer. (+) Commercial Shorts could be reversing to add to positions, typically places a low. (+) Commercial Longs have not been adding. Until they start adding I will remain neutral. (+/-) Funds are adding to longs. (+) **These indicators lag behind change in trends. But if we do trend after the report, It should help confirm a bigger picture scenario either way….
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
Education: Three Day Trailing Stop Rule (3DTSR)ICEUS:KC1! I learned a handy tool used to manage risk under certain circumstances - the Three Day Trailing Stop Rule (3DTSR) In this example, I actually fade the 3DTSR, but being able to execute different styles of trading strategies reflects an understanding of them, while acknowledging that no system or strategy used in markets will be perfect. Three Day Trailing Stop Rule: There is one initial criteria for the 3DTSR to become active - Either Upon Pattern Breakout - to limit initial risk/add to position at lower relative risk OR Upon Reaching 70% of Target from Breakout as a Trailing Stop In an Uptrend, to exit a position using the 3DTSR Day 1 is the High Day, defined by a new price high - at this point, we are not aware of the setup Day 2 is the Setup Day, defined by a closing price (end of day) that is below the low of Day 1 - at this point, the trigger is active Day 3 is the Trigger Day, as the stop is placed below the low of Day 2 The 3DTSR can also be used as an entry strategy, as shown in the chart here. Day 1 = High Day Day 2 = Setup Day, where price closed below the low of Day 1 Instead of placing a stop below the low of day 2, here I fade the 3DTSR by ADDING to a long coffee position, and jamming the stop to below the low of Day 2 Day 3 = The low of Day 2, or the trigger, is never penetrated, and price opens a cent higher If using the Trigger as a stop, or below the low of Day 2, and using the Triangle shown to imply a measured target, this is a whopping 20 to 1 trade setup. Do you have any profitable trading systems or strategies?
ICEUS:KC1!Education
by jBTCkingaling
3
Why Implied Volatility Is A Critical Tool For All TradersTraders and investors use different sets of tools when approaching markets. Some are fundamentalists, pouring through balance sheets, supply and demand data, and other macro and microeconomic information to predict the future prices of assets. Others have a strictly technical approach to markets, following trends and the path of least resistance of prices. Still, others combine the two to look for opportunities where fundamental and technical analysis merge to improve the chances of success. The past is history; the present is all that matters for traders and investors Historical volatility is a map of the past price variance for asset prices Implied volatility is a real-time sentiment indicator The primary variable determining put and call option prices The three critical factors implied volatility reveals Yogi Berra, the hall of fame catcher and armchair philosopher, once said, “The future ain’t what it used to be.” All market participants have the same goal, to increase their nest eggs. Projecting the future is the route to achieve their goal. Implied volatility is a tool that all market participants need to embrace as it is a real-time indicator of market sentiment. The past is history; the present is all that matters for traders and investors History depends on interpretation. When it comes to markets, Napoleon Bonaparte may have said it best, “history is a set of lies agreed upon.” An asset’s price moved higher or lower in the past because of a collection of variables viewed through a prism that leads to a collective conclusion that has broad acceptance but may not be accurate. Taking a risk-based position on an inaccurate conclusion could lead to mistakes and losses. When we consider buying or selling any asset, all that matters is the present. The current price of any asset is always the correct price because it is the level a seller is willing to accept and a buyer is willing to pay in a transparent environment, the market. Historical volatility is a map of the past price variance for asset prices Historical volatility is an objective statistical tool that defines the price variance of the past. Any disclosure document tells us that past performance is no guaranty of future performance. We must view historical volatility precisely the same way, with more than a grain of salt. Historical volatility is a guide, but remember what Yogi said, “the future ain’t what it used to be!” We calculate historical volatility by determining the average deviation from the average price over a given period. When it comes to math, the formulas are: A simple explanation of the complicated formula comes in seven easy steps: 1. Collect the historical prices for the asset 2. Compute the expected price (mean) of the historical prices. 3. Work out the difference between the average price and each price in the series. 4. Square the differences from the previous step. 5. Determine the sum of the squared differences. 6. Divide the differences by the total number of prices (find variance). 7. Compute the square root of the variance computed in the previous step. Implied volatility is a real-time sentiment indicator While we can calculate historical volatility from historical data, implied volatility is a different story. Implied volatility is the expected or projected volatility or price variance of an asset over time. We back into calculating implied volatility using an options pricing model. We can establish an implied volatility reading by entering the option value into the Black-Scholes options pricing formula or other formulas that determine options prices. If we have a put or call options price, we can solve for the implied volatility level. The Black-Scholes formula in mathematical notation is: The primary variable determining put and call option prices There are no option prices without implied volatility as it is the critical variable that determines put and call option values. Yogi also said, “You can observe a lot by watching.” The current implied volatility level is the market’s consensus perception of what volatility or price variance will be during the life of the put or call option. Observing and watching reveals the constant changes in implied volatility levels, which can be highly volatile over time. Option traders call an option’s sensitivity to changes in implied volatility Vega, which measures the change in an option price for a one-point change in implied volatility. Implied volatility is constantly changing. Yogi had another great saying, “If the world were perfect, it wouldn’t be,” which rings true for implied volatility which can change in the blink of an eye. Option traders pay lots of attention to their Vega risk as the volatility of implied volatility can be…highly volatile! How’s that for a tongue twister? The three critical factors implied volatility reveals Implied volatility is a valuable tool for all traders and investors for three significant reasons: It is a real-time indicator of the market’s perception of the future price range of an asset. It can change suddenly, and changes often occur before the price of an asset reacts, making implied volatility a leading indicator. Implied volatility reflects the wisdom of the crowd, and crowds tend to make better decisions than individuals. Moreover, it is reading that reflects the present, not the past, and is a constantly changing measure of consensus forecasts for the future. As traders and investors, we exist in the present. We attempt to increase our wealth with long and short risk positions that either add or subtract from our nest egg in the future. Implied volatility is a critical measure we should understand, utilize, and always keep in our toolbox. Any project requires the right tools. Implied volatility’s value is that it reflects a snapshot of the current market’s consensus. Historical volatility depends on “Deja vu” happening “all over again.” Implied volatility is a measure that understands that the “future ain’t what it used to be.” ----- Register for our Monday Night Call using the link below. You can view this full article (with specific examples) and get early access to future articles for free using the other link below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
ICEUS:CT1!Education
by Andy_Hecht
18
Continuous CornCorn – Weekly Cont: The 5.47 area had the most volume by price since the uptrend began. Did the recent bump give the Funds an opportunity to bail on their longs or does it prove to be an area of accumulation for funds and end users??? Weekly support at 5.21 needs to hold for the weak longs. Further key support at 4.98. Risk is 4.66-4.37. So far the cloud is acting as good support. Any further strength needs to see a weekly close above the 5.44-5.47 resistance. Initial target above 5.47 is at 5.88 and then 6.16. Current “Market Structure” is very sensitive. Downside Risk is 4.37, Upside Risk is any posted number up to 8.81
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
COMMODITIES - RICE ZR1 - Breakout ImminentLine of Least Resistance determined by Underlying Conditions in my Global Macro Campaign. Price Action Behavior suggests short attack taking advantage of sellers at previous breakout, to accumulate for next wave... which is building up quickly. I will know if my suspicions are correct at the median line. US-China tensions will make the supply scarce, and NATO + allies' free trade agreements are under pressure due to pandemic handling. I speculate a global shift towards domestic production, if not military tensions... Nations will most certainly need to stockpile food! Other Commodities of interest: Coffee: Wheat: Soybeans: Corn: GLHF - DPT
CBOT:ZR1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn1043646