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Agricultural Commodities

Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 2838 Pivot: 2660 Support: 2565 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 2660 where the overlap support and 50% Fibonacci line is before heading back up towards the resistance at 2838, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the support level at 2565, which is the overlap support. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by Genesiv
Fundamentals favour soybean, sugar and wheatAgricultural commodities, led by grains rose sharply in 2022. The two main catalysts for the upside in price were the Russia-Ukraine war alongside other supply challenges. There has been a number of cascading events around these two catalysts involving government interventions globally as food prices soared. However, from mid-October the renewal of the Black Sea grain initiative for six months, helped quell concerns of access to Black Sea ports. We have seen prices decline since then, but from a high level. It’s worth noting that grain exports from Ukraine under the Black Sea Grain Initiative dropped to 3.1mn tons in January compared to 3.6mn tons in December 2022 owing to a slowdown in inspections1. In 2023, the supply demand balance appears to be favouring soybeans, wheat, and sugar. Extreme drought in Argentina lends a tailwind to soybean prices In the case of soybean, a gloomier supply outlook has been a key tailwind for prices in 2023. Argentina, the world’s third largest soybean producer, is expected to see a weaker crop at 35.5mn tons owing to persistent drought and high temperatures. The Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates the crop at just 36mn tons after the USDA previously predicted a crop of 45.5mn tons. However, both estimates are still well above the assessments of local experts. The Rosario Grain Exchange, which asserts the drought is the worst in 60 years, lowered its soybean forecast to 34.5mn tons. Thus, future downward revisions by USDA are quite likely which should help soybeans continue to find support. Net speculative positioning in soybean futures has increased 124% since the start of October underscoring the positive sentiment owing to the tighter supply outlook. Tighter supply on the global sugar market Sugar prices are trading at a six year high. Investors remain concerned over the prospects of the sugar crop in India, the world’s second largest sugar exporter. Sugar cane processing in Maharashtra, the most important growing State, could end 45 to 60 days earlier than last year owing to heavy rainfall that has reduced the availability of sugar cane. In 2022, sugar production reached a record 13.7mn tons, which allowed India to export a record high 11.2mn tons of sugar.2 The Indian Sugar mills Association (ISMA) revised its estimate for domestic sugar production lower from 36.5mn tons to 34mn tons for the 2022/23 season2. This is raising concerns that the Indian government will not approve any further sugar exports for the current marketing year owing to the recent reports of weak production. This does suggest a tighter global sugar market particularly as we are in the midst of Brazil’s (the world’s largest sugar producer) sugarcane off-season. Although Brazil produces sugar all year round, during this period (December to March) few mills continue to crush. Supply from Thailand, the world’s third largest sugar producer is unlikely to fill the gap left behind by the smaller Indian harvest particularly during Brazil’s off-crop. The front end of the sugar futures curve has been in backwardation over the past 3 months and currently provides a roll yield of 7.2% highlighting the tightness in the sugar market. Wheat most exposed to geopolitical tensions Wheat prices have under most pressure from the improved supply prospects from the Black Sea Region. However total grain exports have declined by 29% to 27.7mn tons in the ongoing season (from 1 July 2022 to 31 January 2023), with wheat exports down 42% over the prior year.3 The ongoing escalation in the Russia Ukraine war continue to threaten supply from the breadbasket of Europe. The US Department of Agriculture is forecasting a noticeably smaller Russian wheat crop of 91 million tons for 2022 in sharp contrast to Russia’s State Statistics Agency estimate at a record high of 104.4mn tons. According to the consultant firm SovEcon, the key growing region in the south of Russia has seen only around 40-80% of its normal rainfall over the past three months. The forecasts of this year’s crop in Russia are less optimistic. In the 2022/23 season, a record crop in Russia enabled ample supply of the wheat markets, despite a considerably lower crop in war-torn Ukraine in particular, thereby dampening prices. Lower supply is likely in the coming season, however, not only from the top wheat producers – Russia and the US – but also from Ukraine on account of the ongoing military conflict. The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) anticipates a crop volume of 16 million tons. According to the Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry, 20 million tons of wheat were harvested last year. Before the war, the crop had totalled around 30 million tons. Net speculative positioning in wheat futures is currently more than 2-standard deviations below its five-year average, underscoring the extreme bearishness on the wheat market. Amidst the ongoing conflict and lower wheat supply from Russia and Ukraine, wheat prices appear positioned for a rebound from current levels. Sources 1 Bloomberg as of 31 January 2023 2 Indian Sugar Mills Association as of 30 December 2022 3 Bloomberg as of 31 December 2022
CBOT:ZW1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 214.05 Pivot: 182.95 Support: 172.60 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. To add confluence to this bias, price is also along an ascending trend line. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 182.95, where the overlap support is, before continue heading towards the resistance at 214.05, where the overlap resistance is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to break the pivot at 182.95, where the overlap support is, before heading towards the support at 172.60, where the overlap support and 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Genesiv
1
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop Type: Bearish Drop Resistance: 688.50 Pivot: 673.00 Support: 648.25 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bearish due to the current price crossing below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. To add confluence to this bias, price is also within a descending channel. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly retest the pivot at 673.00 where the overlap resistance and 50% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the support at 648.25, where the previous swing low is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back up to retest the resistance at 688.50 where the recent high is located. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Coffee Short - Seasonal weakness starting For my coffee drinkers - Both Arabica and Robusta had a strong start to the year. However, seasonally a bearish phase starts from 22 Feb to 31 Mar. The technical price target was also reached yesterday. In the last 17 years we can observe a negative trend between 22 Feb to 1 Mar. Only in 5 out of 17 years did the coffee price rise during this period. On average, coffee loses around -3.75% in this period with a standard deviation of 6.92%.
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEEShort
by SalahBouhmidi
1
Sugar Futures ( SB1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Sugar No. 11 Futures ( SB1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 23.86 Pivot: 21.89 Support: 21.02 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SB1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to rise from the pivot at 21.89 before heading towards the resistance at 23.86, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the overlap support at 21.02, slightly below where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:SB1!Long
by Genesiv
Coffee (Love Coffee & wanna get rich?)View On Coffee (23 Dec 2022) I am seeing a possible bottoming in coffee. It is hard to find a single bottoming point but I reckon the price of coffee will not go lower than $150. In 1Q2023, you can slowly build coffee postings and possible extract the great profit of it. It shall easily see $190 or even $210 DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too. Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment". Thank You! Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading crypto, foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor. DISCLAIMER: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEE
by SonicDeejay
3
Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 2838 Pivot: 2660 Support: 2565 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 2660 where the overlap support and 50% Fibonacci line is before heading back up towards the resistance at 2838, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the support level at 2565, which is the overlap support. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by Genesiv
Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 214.05 Pivot: 172.60 Support: 142.05 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before continue heading towards the resistance at 214.05, where the overlap resistance is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to break the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before heading towards the support at 142.05, where the previous swing low is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Genesiv
easyMarkets Cotton Daily - Quick Technical OverviewDisclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:CTNUSD
by easyMarkets
Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 214.05 Pivot: 172.60 Support: 142.05 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before continue heading towards the resistance at 214.05, where the overlap resistance is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to break the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before heading towards the support at 142.05, where the previous swing low is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Genesiv
Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 214.05 Pivot: 172.60 Support: 142.05 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before continue heading towards the resistance at 214.05, where the overlap resistance is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to break the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before heading towards the support at 142.05, where the previous swing low is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop Type: Bearish Drop Resistance: 688.50 Pivot: 673.00 Support: 648.25 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bearish due to the current price crossing below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the support at 648.25, where the previous swing low is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back up to retest the resistance at 688.50 where the recent high is located. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 214.05 Pivot: 172.60 Support: 142.05 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before continue heading towards the resistance at 214.05, where the overlap resistance is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to break the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before heading towards the support at 142.05, where the previous swing low is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 706.50 Pivot: 6681.00 Support: 673.00 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 706.50, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the support at 673.00 where the recent low is located. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
Soy Bean (The Future is Bright?)View On Soy Bean (26 Jan 2023) What a lovely Bullish Price action we had. It also have a strong monthly swing level (1450~1470) to boost. I am expecting the price of Soybean is to go UP further. The momentum will pick up stronger once the price has broken up 1510 region. Le't find out. Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor. DISCLAIMER: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
FX:SOYFLong
by SonicDeejay
CT1! Potential For Bearish DropLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CT1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 85.49, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap resistance is. Stop loss will be at 88.88, where the recent high is. Take profit will be at 77.50, where the previous swing low is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
ICEUS:CT1!Short
by VantageMarkets